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Yoan Moncada 2020 Outlook


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Only 24 years old, Moncada definitely improved in his 2nd full season, exceptional growth some might say. Going from 97WrC+ to 141WrC+ and lowing his K% by 6%. I'm not just not as hyped as others I suppose. His SwStr% got worse (12.2 to 13.9), and he added 5% to his ground balls, giving him a 42.3 GB% which isn't good for a power hitter. His HR/FB% doubled in 2019 despite virtually the same Hard/Med/Soft contact% and a 5.5% deduction in Flyballs. I was reading some articles saying he will be top 5 MVP this year. What am I missing? Also, where is his speed? He's barely stealing for a guy with a 70grade speed tool

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SB potential is definitely untapped but the elite speed gives me hope. 70 is an over-grade though.

He hit in front of Abreu a lot, and he gets distracted when guys try to steal. I'm sure that limited his SB attempts.

SwStr went up due to his more aggressive approach (also why his walks went down), which obviously worked out for him. His exit velo is top tier, so even after the BABIP regresses you're probably looking at a 280ish hitter. He's just good across the board, basically. He won't be elite in any cat except runs, but 105-280-28-85-15 would make him a fantasy stud, and that's a pretty reachable projection.

MVP talk probably comes from writers who saw a former #1 prospect put up 5.7 fWAR in 129 games in his second full season. Easy to draw a lazy conclusion from there to MVPland. Being high on the White Sox also seems to be trendy this winter.

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He definitely got lucky in average with a .406 BABIP, but his profile does fit someone who will normally have a high BABIP, just not that high. I'd expect some regression in average but should be able to deliver everywhere. He hit .315 last year so even if he drops 30-40 points if he delivers 25 HR, 10 SB and plays every day he will meet his value. If you draft him expecting to get a high average guy you will likely be disappointed.

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2 hours ago, Overlord said:

 

Huh.

You thinking MVP year is incoming?

 

 

He'd have to take another significant step forward. I think he probably settles in as a 4-7 win player through his prime. Not quite MVP level. Maybe he has one mega year where he can contend for an MVP.

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6 hours ago, sleepysock said:

He'd have to take another significant step forward. I think he probably settles in as a 4-7 win player through his prime. Not quite MVP level. Maybe he has one mega year where he can contend for an MVP.

 

I was being facetious, but thank you for the insight nonetheless!

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On 1/5/2020 at 5:13 AM, sleepysock said:

SB potential is definitely untapped but the elite speed gives me hope. 70 is an over-grade though.

He hit in front of Abreu a lot, and he gets distracted when guys try to steal. I'm sure that limited his SB attempts.

SwStr went up due to his more aggressive approach (also why his walks went down), which obviously worked out for him. His exit velo is top tier, so even after the BABIP regresses you're probably looking at a 280ish hitter. He's just good across the board, basically. He won't be elite in any cat except runs, but 105-280-28-85-15 would make him a fantasy stud, and that's a pretty reachable projection.

MVP talk probably comes from writers who saw a former #1 prospect put up 5.7 fWAR in 129 games in his second full season. Easy to draw a lazy conclusion from there to MVPland. Being high on the White Sox also seems to be trendy this winter.

You need to prove correlation between BABIP and Exit velo. I get why people think it correlates, but i've seen no evidence. If you have an article, love to read it and learn something new! 

FB/LB Exit velo has some correlation with HR/FB rate though! 

 

On topic with Moncada? I can still buy a .270+ BA. He had a .344 BABIP in his down year. Completely buy into his HR/FB increase, K% decrease and healthy barrels/pa that helps BA.

 

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Love him.  Good lineup. Good park.  Good division to hit in.

Might be a little value with him with his ADP.

Injuries are a touch of a concern.

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Forgetting about the BABIP for a sec, Moncada was still top 10% among all players in xBA, so while it's not likely that he'll hit .315 again, he's even less likely to hit below .250-260. If he's the same player, no changes good or bad, he's in the .270 to .295 range. Obviously things like extreme luck and/or swinging more for the fences could move him out of that area, but very generally speaking fast dudes that hit the ball extremely hard and aren't swing for the fences type of players are BA neutral at absolute worst, and more typically an asset in the category. One thing that's not been mentioned is that he finally starting hitting like a major leaguer rather than a Little Leaguer against lefties in 2019. Slightly different stance and more aggressive approach and that was that. He was an absolute sinkhole against LHP previously so just being competent  will also keep the BA from dropping too much.

As mentioned above, it's the nagging injuries that are a concern. That to me is the biggest issue. But even at 130ish games projected I like him at his current price tag. We'll see what he'll cost in March.

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  • 1 month later...

As a White Sox fan I was realllllyyy hoping to be all in on Moncada this year.

Unfortunately, he opens the ADP/Auction value in a very very tough spot this year. At $21+ dollars in Y! auctions and being behind guys like Devers ($24), Arenando ($40), Jo-Ram ($32), Kris Bryant ($24) it's REALLYYYY tough to spend on him. Matt Chapman is going for like $14... who would you rather have? Chap or Moncada at their prices? etc.

There's just so many good 3b with awesome value and then Moncada feels like your paying for him to somewhat repeat. 

My hope is that in the next Y! update he goes down a bit, maybe to the $17 range, and I'd happily buy up for him. At $22ish it's just hard to compare the gains to other 3b and feel happy about it.

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5 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

As a White Sox fan I was realllllyyy hoping to be all in on Moncada this year.

Unfortunately, he opens the ADP/Auction value in a very very tough spot this year. At $21+ dollars in Y! auctions and being behind guys like Devers ($24), Arenando ($40), Jo-Ram ($32), Kris Bryant ($24) it's REALLYYYY tough to spend on him. Matt Chapman is going for like $14... who would you rather have? Chap or Moncada at their prices? etc.

There's just so many good 3b with awesome value and then Moncada feels like your paying for him to somewhat repeat. 

My hope is that in the next Y! update he goes down a bit, maybe to the $17 range, and I'd happily buy up for him. At $22ish it's just hard to compare the gains to other 3b and feel happy about it.

Like the player but I feel that is to expensive for him, much like you do

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

cant project more than 12-13 bags and you have seen the batting avg floor (obviously with the improvment as a young hitter he shouldnt hit 230). cant pay the price

 

I was just looking into for my upcoming 5th round pick in a draft champions league and then I seen the .406 BABIP of last year and echo your sentiments.

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  • 4 weeks later...

signed a long term extension just now. White Sox taking a page from Indians playbook when they locked up all their young stars before free agency. No money details yet but prolly good for the White Sox.

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23 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

signed a long term extension just now. White Sox taking a page from Indians playbook when they locked up all their young stars before free agency. No money details yet but prolly good for the White Sox.

 

5 years, $70 million with a club option for 6th year, per The Athletic.

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  • 1 month later...

Pretty well-written article on Moncada:

Most of this has already been discussed to an extent in this thread, but this is a good summary. I’m still buying Moncada at his current price, but I’m less inclined to reach for him.

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  • 4 months later...
12 minutes ago, Marty Funkhouser said:

I wasn't expecting him to be burning up the basepaths, but zero steals or attempts is pretty disappointing. Nothing particularly unique about him at third base if he isn't providing some speed.

Been hurt all year. Lower body issues.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I have no doubt that he’ll bounce back next season, but he’d definitely had a rough go of it this year.  He’s moving in slow motion out there.  And if he pushes himself, you can see him wincing in pain.  I thought it was a groin issue early on.  Then they said it was lower body soreness as if this were hockey.  But now it all makes sense.

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