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Alvin Kamara 2020 Outlook


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Definitely lost a step this year. Has hardly any elusiveness has he been playing with an injury? He just looks totally different; plays like Travaris Cadet now.

 

 

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You guys draft and then swap half your teams before the season even starts. Clearly need another hobby to occupy your time

Covers if you had him or played against him: 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

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11 minutes ago, affliction said:

Definitely lost a step this year. Has hardly any elusiveness has he been playing with an injury? He just looks totally different; plays like Travaris Cadet now.

 

 


team pace and play volume doesn’t help. Basically you’re drafting a 16-18 touch guy and is a 70-80 receiving guy. Looking like he may turn out like Reggie bush which isn't terrible. I'd take him at the turn with an elite WR or another possible bellcow. I wouldn't feel great if he's my rb1

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Kamara is a player whose value varies quite a bit depending on what format you play in. Here's how his 2019 fantasy season numbers ended up.
image.png.5812ed06bb39dfec8de2ff9d959cece9.png

Now those are his full-season numbers. But he had a big Week 17 fantasy-wise, and for most of us, the fantasy season ends with Week 16. Here were his ranks through Week 16 (where he had an even bigger game than in the season finale...and for most people who drafted Kamara with their 1st round pick, they probably weren't in the Finals because of Kamara not living up to expectations...meaning Week 16 was worthless to many Kamara owners just like Week 17).
image.png.3480a1296e21924cc4945157b04aef22.png

And just for the heck of it, here were his ranks through Week 15.
image.png.208f8220e3ee81467054262286361652.png

I mention these ranks because by the time 2020 draft season comes around, there will be some people who only look at his final season ranks. And forget about how his disappointing 2019 was made a little less disappointing by his strong Weeks 16 & 17. 

That doesn't tell us how Kamara will do in 2020 of course. But I find it interesting that even though Kamara stood out as someone due for TD regression (after 18 TD's in 2018) AND then did regress in TD's, efficiency stats, and the eye test in 2019, early fantasy rankings have him as a Top 3--6 RB for 2020 again. From the high variance he has across fantasy formats, that's especially risky if you don't play in full PPR.

Edited by Corleone
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1 hour ago, affliction said:

I would think about it. 

He is definitely a product of the Saints System and I just can’t see them paying him what he will demand in 2021. Plus Drew’s future is up in the air. I kind of want him to retire and give the reigns to Taysom who would be Lamar 2.0 

If Hill becomes the starting QB, Kamara will never score another rushing TD. 

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2 hours ago, Corleone said:

Kamara is a player whose value varies quite a bit depending on what format you play in. Here's how his 2019 fantasy season numbers ended up.
image.png.5812ed06bb39dfec8de2ff9d959cece9.png

Now those are his full-season numbers. But he had a big Week 17 fantasy-wise, and for most of us, the fantasy season ends with Week 16. Here were his ranks through Week 16 (where he had an even bigger game than in the season finale...and for most people who drafted Kamara with their 1st round pick, they probably weren't in the Finals because of Kamara not living up to expectations...meaning Week 16 was worthless to many Kamara owners just like Week 17).
image.png.3480a1296e21924cc4945157b04aef22.png

And just for the heck of it, here were his ranks through Week 15.
image.png.208f8220e3ee81467054262286361652.png

I mention these ranks because by the time 2020 draft season comes around, there will be some people who only look at his final season ranks. And forget about how his disappointing 2019 was made a little less disappointing by his strong Weeks 16 & 17. 

That doesn't tell us how Kamara will do in 2020 of course. But I find it interesting that even though Kamara stood out as someone due for TD regression (after 18 TD's in 2018) AND then did regress in TD's, efficiency stats, and the eye test in 2019, early fantasy rankings have him as a Top 3--6 RB for 2020 again. From the high variance he has across fantasy formats, that's especially risky if you don't play in full PPR.

IIRC his yards per game were similar to his career averages though a bit down, but yes his TD totals were like a pendulum swing his year.  I had him this year and it was frustrating, especially after seeing what Murray did when Kamara was out.  Without thinking too much about it I can still see Kamara drafted somewhere around RB5-8 next year, depending on format.

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I would 100% take him in the top 5 again. High ankle sprain hurt Barkley just as much and his TD's will positively regress. And we know that it doesn't really matter whether it's Brees or Bridgewater passing.

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3 hours ago, sSektor said:

I would 100% take him in the top 5 again. High ankle sprain hurt Barkley just as much and his TD's will positively regress. And we know that it doesn't really matter whether it's Brees or Bridgewater passing.

Totally Agree...He is going to be a steal next season

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9 hours ago, affliction said:

Definitely lost a step this year. Has hardly any elusiveness has he been playing with an injury? He just looks totally different; plays like Travaris Cadet now.

 

 

6 hours ago, ZappB said:

IIRC his yards per game were similar to his career averages though a bit down, but yes his TD totals were like a pendulum swing his year. 

 

Identical ypc as last year, almost the same yards and targets per game. Only difference is the touchdowns, he went 9 games without scoring a touchdown, which nobody could have predicted.

 

But then, even the weakest fantasy football players know that TDs are the least predictable stat from one year to the next.

You don't count on TDs, you count on usage, and from this point of view, nothing has really changed. He hit exactly 81 receptions for the third straight year:

 

alvinkamara.jpg

 

Kamara is a safe 1st rounder. The only way that changes is if the Saints re-shape their offense, maybe by adding another RB or WR (they could use another WR, btw). My feeling is he plays better in a committee, he should be getting fewer carries.

In PPR, he'll never be a bust if he's pulling 100 targets/80 receptions.

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3 hours ago, predator_05 said:

 

 

Identical ypc as last year, almost the same yards and targets per game. Only difference is the touchdowns, he went 9 games without scoring a touchdown, which nobody could have predicted.

 

But then, even the weakest fantasy football players know that TDs are the least predictable stat from one year to the next.

You don't count on TDs, you count on usage, and from this point of view, nothing has really changed. He hit exactly 81 receptions for the third straight year:

 

alvinkamara.jpg

 

Kamara is a safe 1st rounder. The only way that changes is if the Saints re-shape their offense, maybe by adding another RB or WR (they could use another WR, btw). My feeling is he plays better in a committee, he should be getting fewer carries.

In PPR, he'll never be a bust if he's pulling 100 targets/80 receptions.

Stats are stats but watching the games you can see he isn't the same as last year. I still like him as a first rounder in PPR but I expect Taysom's usage to go up next year.

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21 hours ago, ZappB said:

IIRC his yards per game were similar to his career averages though a bit down, but yes his TD totals were like a pendulum swing his year.  I had him this year and it was frustrating, especially after seeing what Murray did when Kamara was out.  Without thinking too much about it I can still see Kamara drafted somewhere around RB5-8 next year, depending on format.

 

15 hours ago, predator_05 said:

Identical ypc as last year, almost the same yards and targets per game. Only difference is the touchdowns, he went 9 games without scoring a touchdown, which nobody could have predicted.


Towards efficiency stat drops, Kamara saw these declines (amongst others):

2018 PFF overall grade: 84.1
2019 PFF overall grade: 69.9
(I personally consider this to be a big one, as PFF tracks players way better than any of us on this Forum)

2018 Yards per Target: 6.8
2019 Yards per Target: 5.5

2018 Yards per Touch: 5.8
2019 Yards per Touch: 5.3

 

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18 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 


Towards efficiency stat drops, Kamara saw these declines (amongst others):

2018 PFF overall grade: 84.1
2019 PFF overall grade: 69.9
(I personally consider this to be a big one, as PFF tracks players way better than any of us on this Forum)

2018 Yards per Target: 6.8
2019 Yards per Target: 5.5

2018 Yards per Touch: 5.8
2019 Yards per Touch: 5.3

 

So pff graded Kamara a 69.9  enforce the season started?  Or is that his grade when he finished?

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Finished in or around the top ten (depending on your format) despite missing two games and going without a touchdown in eleven of the fourteen games he played. In the worst season of his career to this point he still finished in the top ten. Not going to overthink this one going into next year. 

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I own him in a 3 keeper league and have no plans to trade him heading into next year. It was a down year, but the volume is still off the charts. I chalk it up to him being banged up more this year than in years past. Mahomes, Kamara, Kelce, that's the core. 

He's still top a top 5 running back in dynasty/keeper leagues. 

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5 hours ago, Corleone said:

 


Towards efficiency stat drops, Kamara saw these declines (amongst others):

2018 PFF overall grade: 84.1
2019 PFF overall grade: 69.9
(I personally consider this to be a big one, as PFF tracks players way better than any of us on this Forum)

 

Definitely matches up with a lot of Saints fans have been talking about on forums.

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On 1/6/2020 at 3:15 AM, predator_05 said:

 

 

Identical ypc as last year, almost the same yards and targets per game. Only difference is the touchdowns, he went 9 games without scoring a touchdown, which nobody could have predicted.

 

But then, even the weakest fantasy football players know that TDs are the least predictable stat from one year to the next.

You don't count on TDs, you count on usage, and from this point of view, nothing has really changed. He hit exactly 81 receptions for the third straight year:

 

alvinkamara.jpg

 

Kamara is a safe 1st rounder. The only way that changes is if the Saints re-shape their offense, maybe by adding another RB or WR (they could use another WR, btw). My feeling is he plays better in a committee, he should be getting fewer carries.

In PPR, he'll never be a bust if he's pulling 100 targets/80 receptions.

His usage within the 10-yard line changed pretty dramatically this year - they barely used him in the vicinity of the stripe.

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Touchdowns DO play a factor. Lack of TD's can make or break a player and while it is difficult to predict a TD total, it isn't always so hard to predict what offenses are going to struggle to score TDs. What does Brees do? If he retires then who knows what Kamara looks like next year.

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5 hours ago, Spyplane said:

Touchdowns DO play a factor. Lack of TD's can make or break a player and while it is difficult to predict a TD total, it isn't always so hard to predict what offenses are going to struggle to score TDs. What does Brees do? If he retires then who knows what Kamara looks like next year.

There was a report saying he is coming back. Him and Brady are not going to retire and give the other person the TD record lol.

The worry for next year will be if the Saints add a 3rd back and more likely, Taysom Hill's usage increasing. He has earned more touches.

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