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Alvin Kamara 2020 Outlook


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16 hours ago, USWAY said:

Normally running backs perform better with mobile QBs

 

Not in the reception department. Pocket statues need to check down to avoid being sacked. Mobile QBs escape on their own and take the yards with their legs.

Plus, mobile QBs steal red zone/ goal line TDs. 

So, they actually hurt the value of RBs. Quite a bit actually. 

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You guys draft and then swap half your teams before the season even starts. Clearly need another hobby to occupy your time

Covers if you had him or played against him: 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

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15 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

Not really. Hill is an explosive athlete and will open up additional running lanes. He's more than capable of checking down to his RB's. Perhaps this lowers Kamara's PPR ceiling just a smidge but it's far from a nightmare scenario. Relax.

 

 

16 hours ago, USWAY said:

Normally running backs perform better with mobile QBs

 

6 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

 

Not in the reception department. Pocket statues need to check down to avoid being sacked. Mobile QBs escape on their own and take the yards with their legs.

Plus, mobile QBs steal red zone/ goal line TDs. 

So, they actually hurt the value of RBs. Quite a bit actually. 

 

This doesn't even take into account TDs poached.

https://fantasydata.com/the-mobile-qb-impact-on-rbs-in-fantasy-football

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On 11/20/2020 at 12:20 PM, umphrey said:

Didn't Hill start some games with AK in the past?  Anyone know what the results were?

 

Hill start some games at QB with AK in the past? Nope. Today was the first. 

 

On 11/20/2020 at 2:31 PM, LeeVanCleef said:

This is gonna be our worst nightmare. Hill's first instincts are to run and Kamara's production is going to take a major hit with this. I really do hate sean payton.

 

Payton doesn't care about any of our fake teams. And I love the guy...best coach in Saints history. 

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I'm willing to wait and see if this is still a thing next week before becoming too concerned. Kamara was visibly unhappy during the game, and I have a feeling he's going to be vocal behind closed doors about the fact that he was targeted only a single time all game. Let's see if that changes at all before going into panic mode. If he only gets 3-4 targets next game, I'll officially be concerned as long as Hill is the starting QB. 

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26 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I'm willing to wait and see if this is still a thing next week before becoming too concerned. Kamara was visibly unhappy during the game, and I have a feeling he's going to be vocal behind closed doors about the fact that he was targeted only a single time all game. Let's see if that changes at all before going into panic mode. If he only gets 3-4 targets next game, I'll officially be concerned as long as Hill is the starting QB. 

Considering Kamara just got paid and is presumably the main RB for the long term, he might be one of the few that can get through the blinders Payton has put up over Hill.

At this point Hill just looks to be going into business for himself, either because he's a selfish jerk and thinks Payton will protect him or because he's better at masking his lack of pocket awareness than analysts can perceive.

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16 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Hill start some games at QB with AK in the past? Nope. Today was the first. 

 

 

Payton doesn't care about any of our fake teams. And I love the guy...best coach in Saints history. 

Well, when you're only other conceivable option is Jim Mora (pre "Playoffs?" rant), that's not exactly a high bar.

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1 minute ago, SkittleMania said:

Well, when you're only other conceivable option is Jim Mora (pre "Playoffs?" rant), that's not exactly a high bar.

 

I never said the bar was high. But he's one of the best coaches in the NFL right now. That high enough for you? And as a Saints fan, I couldn't care less if fantasy owners like him or not. He's taken us to places we'd never been, and my Saints fandom will always come before my fantasy teams. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I never said the bar was high. But he's one of the best coaches in the NFL right now. That high enough for you? And as a Saints fan, I couldn't care less if fantasy owners like him or not. He's taken us to places we'd never been, and my Saints fandom will always come before my fantasy teams. 

 

He's one of the better regular season coaches going, but the fumes of the 2009 SB have to be fading away by now. His offensive "genius" is more myth when you consider that every few years now you get a another wunderkind with a novel offensive scheme that confounds defenses. As a Raiders fan, I remember how fun Gruden's schemes were during his initial successful run with the team, but his hubris forced him out of Oakland and eventually led to him being fired from Tampa Bay. Payton's offense is innovative, and he's been lucky to have Brees and the right personnel to implement it, but his arrogance is outmatched by only a few coaches in the NFL right now.

 

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Don't own Kamara shares anywhere. I do, however, have two shares of Hill. One of the things I was MOST looking forward to were Kamara dump offs. He can take a one yard pitch the distance. Many of the screens they attempted were blown up in the backfield. The timing seemed a touch off but improved as the game progressed. Hill is more than capable of dumping it off. In fact, I thought he showed too much poise in not taking off as often as I thought he would. That is a great sign. He is not looking to run first. I think this week was the exception. Kamara needs to pick his bottom lip up off the ground and understand that better days are on the horizon. Now that teams see Hill can actually pass, things will open WAY up for Kamara. As for the guy talking about Payton's arrogance...that arrogance just won them the top seed in the NFC despite their Hall of Fame quarterback being out. I don't see anything forcing him to change anytime soon. 

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3 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Don't own Kamara shares anywhere. I do, however, have two shares of Hill. One of the things I was MOST looking forward to were Kamara dump offs. He can take a one yard pitch the distance. Many of the screens they attempted were blown up in the backfield. The timing seemed a touch off but improved as the game progressed. Hill is more than capable of dumping it off. In fact, I thought he showed too much poise in not taking off as often as I thought he would. That is a great sign. He is not looking to run first. I think this week was the exception. Kamara needs to pick his bottom lip up off the ground and understand that better days are on the horizon. Now that teams see Hill can actually pass, things will open WAY up for Kamara. As for the guy talking about Payton's arrogance...that arrogance just won them the top seed in the NFC despite their Hall of Fame quarterback being out. I don't see anything forcing him to change anytime soon. 

agreed, hill scrambled way less often than i thought he would

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2 hours ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Don't own Kamara shares anywhere. I do, however, have two shares of Hill. One of the things I was MOST looking forward to were Kamara dump offs. He can take a one yard pitch the distance. Many of the screens they attempted were blown up in the backfield. The timing seemed a touch off but improved as the game progressed. Hill is more than capable of dumping it off. In fact, I thought he showed too much poise in not taking off as often as I thought he would. That is a great sign. He is not looking to run first. I think this week was the exception. Kamara needs to pick his bottom lip up off the ground and understand that better days are on the horizon. Now that teams see Hill can actually pass, things will open WAY up for Kamara. As for the guy talking about Payton's arrogance...that arrogance just won them the top seed in the NFC despite their Hall of Fame quarterback being out. I don't see anything forcing him to change anytime soon. 

As the "guy talking about Payton's arrogance," that arrogance doesn't mean diddly squat when it catches him playing down to his opponents in the play-offs. Have all the confidence in Hill you want, but I don't have it. He was playing against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Let's see him try to win games with his short passes and reckless runs against a team like the Chiefs, if he's starting at that point.

"Too much poise." Oh, it is to laugh.

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It's easy to look at what happened and panic. But keep in mind that Kamara played his lowest % of snaps of the season (48%) coming off a week where he missed two days of practice. Also, anyone who watched this game as I did will tell you regardless of score, it never felt like ATL actually had a chance to win. It was over when NO scored on the opening drive of the third.

This simply could of been a situation where Payton didn't feel like he'd needed AK, so his workload and involvement in the gameplan was lessened as he nurses the bum foot. 

For comparisons sake, AK averages a 66% snap share this year which jumps to 71% if you label & remove this past week and the week 9 TB blow out as outliers. 

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20 minutes ago, SkittleMania said:

As the "guy talking about Payton's arrogance," that arrogance doesn't mean diddly squat when it catches him playing down to his opponents in the play-offs. Have all the confidence in Hill you want, but I don't have it. He was playing against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Let's see him try to win games with his short passes and reckless runs against a team like the Chiefs, if he's starting at that point.

"Too much poise." Oh, it is to laugh.

I don't have a crystal ball. WHo knows how this will play out. But, for those who watched the game and went in with the understanding that this was Hill's very FIRST start, Payton looked like he knew what he was doing. Maybe that changes next week. But for now, he threw a pie in the face of the doubters who thought they would see Tebow Volume 2. Hill stayed in the pocket and took sacks instead of trying to force the ball up. He moved around and made SOLID throws. His deep ball needed some work but **** man, you couldn't have asked for much more. His day could have been even bigger. He has a STRONG defense around him and EXCELLENT skill players propping him up. He won't be asked to win every game on his own. So, because Payton didn't turn to the turnover machine who LOST his starting job to a 43 year old Brady he is arrogant? Jameis had YEARS to prove he was a starting NFL QB with no one in front of him except his own shortcomings. We already know what Jameis is. We don't know what Hill is as a starting QB. He is a late bloomer who did some missionary work, suffered some major injuries, then landed behind two greats (Rodgers briefly and now Brees). And after one game of starting this guy, finding out if he is more than just a gadget player, having spent time studying behind Brees, spending time playing multiple positions, sitting in every positional room on the campus, picking Brees' brain (over the course of YEARS) he finally gets four quarters to show what he's learned and that translates to Payton being arrogant? Jesus Christ. You act like he found this guy on the street playing street football and started him the next day. You miss out on a lot of players if you hate on them before they have a chance to show what they can or can't do. I don't care to be right or wrong on this. I just want to know what Hill is. After one week, he looks serviceable. Maybe week 2 brings a smile to your face and he flames. Then you can come back and beat your chest like Kong and tell Coach Payton to go to hell. 

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56 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

I don't have a crystal ball. WHo knows how this will play out. But, for those who watched the game and went in with the understanding that this was Hill's very FIRST start, Payton looked like he knew what he was doing. Maybe that changes next week. But for now, he threw a pie in the face of the doubters who thought they would see Tebow Volume 2. Hill stayed in the pocket and took sacks instead of trying to force the ball up. He moved around and made SOLID throws. His deep ball needed some work but **** man, you couldn't have asked for much more. His day could have been even bigger. He has a STRONG defense around him and EXCELLENT skill players propping him up. He won't be asked to win every game on his own. So, because Payton didn't turn to the turnover machine who LOST his starting job to a 43 year old Brady he is arrogant? Jameis had YEARS to prove he was a starting NFL QB with no one in front of him except his own shortcomings. We already know what Jameis is. We don't know what Hill is as a starting QB. He is a late bloomer who did some missionary work, suffered some major injuries, then landed behind two greats (Rodgers briefly and now Brees). And after one game of starting this guy, finding out if he is more than just a gadget player, having spent time studying behind Brees, spending time playing multiple positions, sitting in every positional room on the campus, picking Brees' brain (over the course of YEARS) he finally gets four quarters to show what he's learned and that translates to Payton being arrogant? Jesus Christ. You act like he found this guy on the street playing street football and started him the next day. You miss out on a lot of players if you hate on them before they have a chance to show what they can or can't do. I don't care to be right or wrong on this. I just want to know what Hill is. After one week, he looks serviceable. Maybe week 2 brings a smile to your face and he flames. Then you can come back and beat your chest like Kong and tell Coach Payton to go to hell. 

Taysom? Nice burner 

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Announcers kept talking about a "foot" injury like it was something new.  I thought he just had that same toe injury from last week.  Did anything change?   He looked fine, actually ran between the tackles more than he has all year it felt like.  Carries were in line, but for the first time in his career, he didn't get a reception.  Meanwhile, Murray somehow got more targets and receptions.  It was an odd game.  Hopefully that is all it was and we return to norm next week.

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2 hours ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

I don't have a crystal ball. WHo knows how this will play out. But, for those who watched the game and went in with the understanding that this was Hill's very FIRST start, Payton looked like he knew what he was doing. Maybe that changes next week. But for now, he threw a pie in the face of the doubters who thought they would see Tebow Volume 2. Hill stayed in the pocket and took sacks instead of trying to force the ball up. He moved around and made SOLID throws. His deep ball needed some work but **** man, you couldn't have asked for much more. His day could have been even bigger. He has a STRONG defense around him and EXCELLENT skill players propping him up. He won't be asked to win every game on his own. So, because Payton didn't turn to the turnover machine who LOST his starting job to a 43 year old Brady he is arrogant? Jameis had YEARS to prove he was a starting NFL QB with no one in front of him except his own shortcomings. We already know what Jameis is. We don't know what Hill is as a starting QB. He is a late bloomer who did some missionary work, suffered some major injuries, then landed behind two greats (Rodgers briefly and now Brees). And after one game of starting this guy, finding out if he is more than just a gadget player, having spent time studying behind Brees, spending time playing multiple positions, sitting in every positional room on the campus, picking Brees' brain (over the course of YEARS) he finally gets four quarters to show what he's learned and that translates to Payton being arrogant? Jesus Christ. You act like he found this guy on the street playing street football and started him the next day. You miss out on a lot of players if you hate on them before they have a chance to show what they can or can't do. I don't care to be right or wrong on this. I just want to know what Hill is. After one week, he looks serviceable. Maybe week 2 brings a smile to your face and he flames. Then you can come back and beat your chest like Kong and tell Coach Payton to go to hell. 

You make a number of reasonable points.  However, I will choose to ignore your reasonable points, remain angry, and demand more passes to Kamara.

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All this talk and the RW blurb says Kamara may have been limited some because of the foot.

Let’s hope Kamara gets healthier and will get more snaps and touches next week. You gotta think they’ll keep evolving this offense to better utilize Kamara with Hill and vice versa.

I’ll trust Payton to figure something out.

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