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Corey Seager 2020 Outlook


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I find Corey Seager to be an interesting player in 2020. We have seen his ADP plummet over the last 3 years. in 2018, his age 24 season, he had an ADP of 25. In 2019, his age 25 season, he had an ADP of 71. And now in 2020, his age 26 season, he has an ADP around 150. Without getting into too much detail, I argued that he was a fade in 2018 largely due to his lack of steals. In 2019 I once again argued that he was an easy fade, though at that time it was related to the effects of offseason hip and elbow surgery. In 2020, I am now reversing my tune and arguing that Seager is one of the better values in the draft currently.

Last year in 134 games he had 19 home runs, 82 runs, 87 RBIs, and a .272/.335/.483 triple slash line while missing a month with a hamstring injury. I fully anticipated a drop in some of Seager's numbers coming off of two significant surgeries and spending an entire offseason rehabbing. Not surprising his exit velo and hard hit % were the worst of his career. On the bright side some of his power started to reappear in the second half. His slugging % improved from .468 to .496 and has ISO jumped from .190 to .230. He slashed .291/.322/.616 in September. Interestingly his launch angle has increased from 9.6 in 2018 to 14.1 in 2019.

I think the fantasy community as a whole tends to underestimate the impact major offseason surgeries have on players in their first year after. I think we'll see a bounce back year out of Seager after he has a normal offseason when he can perform unrestricted strengthening and conditioning, and I think he'll be a nice value play.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/corey-seager/13624/stats?position=SS

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corey-seager-608369?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

Edited by meh2
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I agree with your overall analysis. Now that he's over a year removed from his 2 major injuries (elbow and hip), I'm also thinking he'll have a good bounce back year in 2020. I'm projecting a .282 BA, 27 HR, and .850 OPS. I think he's under-rated right now, and I'm expecting him to be a very solid SS this year.

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He's a good value at his ADP now and I can see him dropping even further. He's very boring and especially in the mid rounds people will find sleepers and continue to overlook Seager. I don't ready anything into his September numbers just because it was a small sample and cherry picking bias, but overall if he plays a full season at his base production last year he will surpass his ADP easily. There's definitely room for improvement given his pedigree, may not be super upside but the upside is still top 50 value. He led the league in doubles last year with under 500 AB, so while he doesn't have eye popping HR power he's getting production (which gives him a nice floor for RBI and R). Best case, he turns some of those doubles into HR. Worst case, he has another average season and is basically equal to where he is getting drafted.

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  • 1 month later...

He’s projected to hit 5th behind a star studded top 4 of Mookie, Muncy, Turner and Bellinger. I could see each of those guys have OBPs north of .375 this year. He should have a ton of opportunity to drive in runs with all those xbh.  

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  • 5 months later...
  • 3 weeks later...

@The 7th Beatles Love it - thanks for posting so I could watch again. The best part was when Kyle got him back! LOL.

It looks like Seags is here this year. The back scare was tough, but he's back and driving the ball again. He's still swinging and missing at some junk, but he's not missing mistake pitches when they're made, and that's huge.

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