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David Montgomery 2020 Outlook


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Welcome aboard.  Since you're new here, the David Montgomery outlook thread is the Rotoworld equivalent of a senior citizen water aerobics class.  No one really gets excited.  Montgomery is mentioned

I actually think last game was positive for Montgomery.   The one thing I was looking for was whether Cohen's passing work would transfer over to Montgomery.  It did.  Montgomery had a season hig

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13 minutes ago, konstao said:

Im going back and forth with my decision at the flex spot too. Debating between monty OR corey davis against MIN

I have to decide between Monty and AJG too. Pull PPR, still have Monte in there... but may change my mind. AJG is going to be great, just not sure it starts this game. Still dont trust Nagy, he could trick us on a fast tract with stupid Cohen

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16 minutes ago, BigNicc said:

Just having pre-PTSD that the score is 21-0 quick and Dmont's sitting there with 3 or 4 points ~ c h i l l s

Yeah, I was looking at Montgomery's game log from last year, he had some really ugly games.  It wouldn't surprise me if this bites me in the a** but we'll see what happens.

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3 minutes ago, ZappB said:

Yeah, I was looking at Montgomery's game log from last year, he had some really ugly games.  It wouldn't surprise me if this bites me in the a** but we'll see what happens.

 

Ugly games against Great offensive teams with mid to just bad defenses, aka game script nightmare when you have Cohen to come in and swoop the big chunk yardage underneath. Tough to not start tho especially in the RB dystopia we're living in this season

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Just now, Newtown said:

The entire offense came to life when Foles came in. Hate to see a potential season ending injury to any player, but get well Cohen.

Arrow pointing up for D-Mont.

Maybe.

 

Add in that Cohen now potentially has a torn ACL. Who knows what that means for Montgomery. 

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12 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Add in that Cohen now potentially has a torn ACL. Who knows what that means for Montgomery. 

 

It can only be good for Montgomery.  Cohen was the single biggest obstacle to Montgomery's fantasy line because he took the vast majority of the passing work.  And only one-week ago Cohen signed a $17M (!!) contract -- so he wasn't going anywhere, barring an injury.  

Montgomery is a good receiving back.  Having Cohen out of the picture for the season (ACL tear confirmed) should allow him to settle in that role.  

Foles under center should also help.  

Only one obstacle remains:  Nagy.  While I am upgrading Montgomery from RB2/RB3/low-end flex to a mid-tier RB2, who knows with this "genius" of a coach.  He loves his RB committees so I don't see Montgomery's usage skyrocketing.  And maybe they use Patterson more in the Cohen role since he is a receiver.  

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I know talking this guy up is blasphemy around here but could he be a nice buy low? Foles should be good for this offense and Monty, and Tarik might be out for the year meaning potential for more passing work and snaps.  Other than times where he was getting met 5 yards behind LOS he looked good enough.  Maybe just maybe something could brew here.

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I took a chance with Monty thinking Foles would takeover my midseason. This is a huge upgrade and I'm glad the change is early. Foles will be able to move the ball and he already targeted Monty downfield today so I expect the pass volume to go up.

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23 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:

I know talking this guy up is blasphemy around here but could he be a nice buy low? Foles should be good for this offense and Monty, and Tarik might be out for the year meaning potential for more passing work and snaps.  Other than times where he was getting met 5 yards behind LOS he looked good enough.  Maybe just maybe something could brew here.

It should be good for Montgomery but we're still talking about Nagy here.  I still may want to let Foles play a full game and see how things go before I start using Montgomery.

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I'm kind of tempted to sell on the Cohen news.  Looks great but I feel like Nagy is still going to somehow always look to game script him out and/or do gimmicks with Patterson on the goal line etc. Thoughts?

 

For a clear lead back he just seems so susceptible to game flow and Nagy bs garbage.

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31 minutes ago, Magoo said:

I'm kind of tempted to sell on the Cohen news.  Looks great but I feel like Nagy is still going to somehow always look to game script him out and/or do gimmicks with Patterson on the goal line etc. Thoughts?

 

For a clear lead back he just seems so susceptible to game flow and Nagy bs garbage.

I mean, if someone in your league is willing to value him as a high-end RB2 or something based on Cohen’s injury and Foles’ promotion, I’d sell. But how many people are actually willing to value him as such coming off 2/3 bust weeks? I think he probably gains value but he was never a sexy name to begin with coming into draft season and I just don’t see many people scrambling for a piece of him. For me, he’s a hold. 

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2 minutes ago, varock said:

I mean, if someone in your league is willing to value him as a high-end RB2 or something based on Cohen’s injury and Foles’ promotion, I’d sell. But how many people are actually willing to value him as such coming off 2/3 bust weeks? I think he probably gains value but he was never a sexy name to begin with coming into draft season and I just don’t see many people scrambling for a piece of him. For me, he’s a hold. 

 

I agree with this take.  I'll emphasize that the big issue, both for Montgomery's potential trade market and for general valuation purposes, is the uncertainty of having Nagy as coach.  

Losing Cohen should be a boost to Montgomery.  However, keep in mind that Cohen was NOT siphoning that many carries from Montgomery, and Nagy loves to throw the ball in all situations.  So it's not like Montgomery will receive a huge boost in his rushing totals.  

The real question is how Montgomery is used in the passing game going forward.  He has the skillset, but no one should underestimate Nagy's propensity to go with the unexpected.  

Tentatively, I think Montgomery is now around #16 RB in PPR formats.  This mostly reflects an expected uptick in receiving work.  

He's definitely a hold for me.  I aggressively tried to trade Montgomery after his solid Week 2 performance, and no one in my league was interested.  Now that Montgomery could potentially see a significant uptick in usage, I am not in a rush to sell him -- knowing my league-mates don't value him highly.  Obviously, every league is different, but I think Montgomery is among the least sexy starting RBs in the league, for the average fantasy player.  

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Reasonable best case let's assume he gets an extra 5 touches per game now, passes and rushes by some combination. So 25 extra yards/game and maybe 2-3 extra TDs overall? That makes him a 90-105 yard and .5 TD per game guy. Not awful for where you drafted him. Is that too bullish? I'd certainly be happy with that at this point even if I feel he's got untapped potential as a workhorse that should touch the ball 25 times a game. Really, I think his value on this Bears team hinges on how much he's utilized at the goal line. For a guy with a rep for falling forward for extra yardage he sure doesn't seem to get many opportunities to put those talents to use inside the 5. So often I see the Bears inside the 10, Monty gets a carry to get them to the 2 or 3 yard line, and then it's a couple passes from there. And that was with Trubisky as QB. For f---'s sake.

Patterson was mentioned earlier and I absolutely could see Nagy just giving him more. 15 rushes in three games so far. Disgusting behavior, Matthew. Patterson pops off one nice run a game a then gets stuffed 3 or 4 times. Dumb. Those carries should be going to Montgomery. Now? We may see Monty stick around 15-17 touches a game and Patterson jump to 10. And with a competent QB in Foles maybe we see even more passes from the 1 and 2 yard line. That's reasonable worst case. Jimmy Graham owners will be dancing in the street if that happens, I guess.

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As a Bears fan and Montgomery owner, the move to Foles definitely makes him a hold for me. He jumps from the low-end of the RB2 range to mid-end now. After Cohen went out, Montgomery pretty much took all the RB snaps in the hurry-up. Foles will go through his progressions and check-down unlike Mitch. I expect an extra 2-3 catches per game for Montgomery. Rushing gets a small uptick as well.

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46 minutes ago, brosephd said:

was thinking this be the last chance to buy low if possible. would only assume foles + cohen injury only help him. although his talent is mediocre, opportunity is a lot better.


Never watched him much but is he really just a mediocre talent? I remember the buzz about him his rookie year and what a great camp he had and such. 
im just curious if he’s really just a below average NFL RB or if he’s just been in one of the worst situations in football with a bottom 3 starting quarterback, bad play calling and usage, and poor o-line play (especially last year that o line stunk).  
 

with foles at the helm and Cohen no longer taking all the passing work out of the backfield, in addition to their better o line this year, we might see a side of Monty we haven’t had the chance to yet.  Any bears fans that watch him a lot able to share?

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2 hours ago, brosephd said:

was thinking this be the last chance to buy low if possible. would only assume foles + cohen injury only help him. although his talent is mediocre, opportunity is a lot better.

He looks so much quicker this year and hitting the hole more decisively.  The issue isn't performance upside -- it's Nagy.

Anyone else notice Nagy seems to always somehow telegraph when he runs him?  For all his gimmicks he seems to guess wrong A LOT.

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