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Tyler Glasnow 2020 Outlook


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A forearm strain cost Glasnow more than half his season (May - Sept). Before the injury, he was looking like the next up-and-coming ace with a 97 mph fastball with cut and a wipeout 12-6 curve. Thankfully, he came back in September and picked up where he left off throwing 12.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 21 K over 4 short starts. Overall, he finished with 12 GS, 60.2 IP, 76 K, 14 BB, 1.78 ERA.

Do we think Glasnow is going to continue his success from last season and perhaps more importantly for 2020, how many innings do we think he can provide?

 

 

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A (likely) Shortened season has moved Glasnow up my rankings a good bit. Less likely to be affected by an innings limit. 

and the sell high window is open for business...  

On 1/13/2020 at 9:40 AM, sportsfreak2744 said:

Do we think Glasnow is going to continue his success from last season and perhaps more importantly for 2020, how many innings do we think he can provide?

The Rays have him cheap for the next 3 years (unless he signs an extension) so I'm guessing it's a hard 150IP cap on him, could be less?

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38 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

The Rays have him cheap for the next 3 years (unless he signs an extension) so I'm guessing it's a hard 150IP cap on him, could be less?

If they only have him for 3 years, why wouldn't they use him up? If he keeps getting injured, he'd be easier to resign cheaper. If he's healthy, the more he pitches and drives up more trade value before they lose him. Doesn't make sense to baby him at this point in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

If they only have him for 3 years, why wouldn't they use him up? If he keeps getting injured, he'd be easier to resign cheaper. If he's healthy, the more he pitches and drives up more trade value before they lose him. Doesn't make sense to baby him at this point in my opinion.

Because 3 years is a long time, in my opinion. If they let him run wild this year and he gets hurt because he threw 100+ more IP than the year previous, it could really screw up 2021 + 2022 (where the Rays will really need him because Charlie Morton will be 37 by that point and potentially gone from the team).

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1 hour ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

If they only have him for 3 years, why wouldn't they use him up? If he keeps getting injured, he'd be easier to resign cheaper. If he's healthy, the more he pitches and drives up more trade value before they lose him. Doesn't make sense to baby him at this point in my opinion.

It doesn’t work that way. Not from the player’s point of view. Not from the team’s point of view. And not from the agent’s point of view. They’re going to try to protect him. I think 150 innings is probably a pretty good approximation for his limit given that I’m sure they want him available for a postseason run as well. Personally I’d bet the under on 150 innings.

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Zeile Composite has his projection at 150 innings. Seems like his value takes at least a slight hit in QS leagues since TB may have a quick hook with him, especially early on. Only projected for 12 QS. Not ideal for those leagues.

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  • 3 weeks later...

More importantly is his fragile frame. Can the guy pitch 100 innings? Is he pitched 99 they would be elite heavy strike outs. But that's not baseball. Marathon. Will he ever been a work horse? / TB fiddles with pitchers like no other team. Worth investing in....even with the limited elite ratios?

 

 

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I think the price will end up being too rich for my blood. I listen to all The Athletic podcasts and Eno may be higher on him than anyone. He did all his rankings primarily based on Command+ and Driveline Baseball's new "Stuff" metric. Apparently Glasnow measures off the charts in Stuff (#1 among all pitchers and it's not even close. The exact numbers could not be published because of the agreement with Driveline) and below average in Command+. I think the health concerns are real and anything beyond 125 IP should be considered lottery winnings.

If you're an Athletic subscriber it's a fascinating read: https://theathletic.com/1575831/2020/02/03/eno-sarris-pitcher-rankings-for-the-2020-season/

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Had a procedure in November that just came out...

Quote

Tyler Glasnow had a median nerve decompression procedure in his right wrist in November.
This is the first we've heard about the surgery. The good news is Glasnow has been throwing with no problems, including most recently off the mound at Tropicana Field on Friday. The right-hander is expected to be on a normal schedule at the start of spring training. While the wrist operation doesn't sound like it was a big deal, Glasnow remains a health risk after being limited to just 12 starts last season due to a flexor strain.

 

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Ditching his change-up for a splitter.

 

For all you pitching experts out there, how does a splitter pair with his elite four-seamer and curve-ball?

 

From my understanding, the splitter drops vertically which would make it redundant with his super sharp curveball? I am by no means a pitching expert, so hoping to get some input with guys with more expertise than me.

 

Thanks

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Splitter when it's command effectively is more nasty. The problem is its a very hard pitch to command in the first place. That and you need really big hands or it's going to cause injury issues. 

Glasnow is a big dude, so I understand why they are trying it. Still makes pause with his injury history.

This news kinda fits with the the already high risk/high reward investment he already was going to be.

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Love this pitcher, the talent is real, the upside is immense, he has ace level talent and makeup, he's a high character, charismatic, intelligent   kid who has star potential in every sense of the word. 

However, the is also risk. His injury he had last year is often a precursor to TJS. He came back and pitched well, so maybe that was just an isolated scare, or evidence Glasnow will struggle with durability concerns.

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5 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

Love this pitcher, the talent is real, the upside is immense, he has ace level talent and makeup, he's a high character, charismatic, intelligent   kid who has star potential in every sense of the word. 

However, the is also risk. His injury he had last year is often a precursor to TJS. He came back and pitched well, so maybe that was just an isolated scare, or evidence Glasnow will struggle with durability concerns.

There are so many pitchers with the same MO, sometimes you just have to take the leap

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  • 1 month later...

Upside could be Gerrit Cole. Cole only reached 140 IP once in his first 4 seasons and I remember he was always considered an injury risk. Since then he's gone three straight years 200+ with no problems and truly elite K totals. 

 

While Glasnow has shown elite K ability, of course he may never get to Cole Cy Young levels due to his control issues and I am worried about the wrist surgery eventually turning into a TJ type of disaster. 

 

Huge upside, huge risk for 2020 and dynasty. Im really struggling with how to rank against Syndergaard/Greinke/Bauer because I believe the upside is so great. 

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43 minutes ago, davidgoretiz said:

Upside could be Gerrit Cole. Cole only reached 140 IP once in his first 4 seasons and I remember he was always considered an injury risk. Since then he's gone three straight years 200+ with no problems and truly elite K totals. 

 

While Glasnow has shown elite K ability, of course he may never get to Cole Cy Young levels due to his control issues and I am worried about the wrist surgery eventually turning into a TJ type of disaster. 

 

Huge upside, huge risk for 2020 and dynasty. Im really struggling with how to rank against Syndergaard/Greinke/Bauer because I believe the upside is so great. 

 

Greinke is the safe boring pick. Bauer is a vet with upside and Syndergaard lol doesnt belong in the same tier as these 3 guys.

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