DJ Moore 2020 Outlook

[Breesus 483]

I’m in the boat of Moore is one of the best receivers already in terms of YAC yardage. Teddy doesn’t need to be amazing he just needs to be able to check it down to him and give him his opportunities. That seems like a pretty safe floor not even assuming he improves in any other aspects of his game. Moore is also only 23 years old he was so young his first 2 seasons, there is still so much room improvement. 
 
Michael Thomas received amount of 7,9,13,12,11 targets in the games Teddy started. Not comparing Moore to MT but Teddy can feed his teams best receiver. Based on that limited sample 

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Breesus

[SharkSwimmer 4,959]

Now we are comparing DJ Moore to Michael Thomas?  Very different players.  Thomas is much more physical and was able to outmuscle defenders and catch Bridgewater's wounded ducks for a short stretch.

To say that means Bridgewater will be able to successfully barrage the much smaller DJ Moore over an entire season is an open question.

[mmcc1029 1,462]

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Now we are comparing DJ Moore to Michael Thomas?  Very different players.  Thomas is much more physical and was able to outmuscle defenders and catch Bridgewater's wounded ducks for a short stretch.

To say that means Bridgewater will be able to successfully barrage the much smaller DJ Moore over an entire season is an open question.

He literally said "Not comparing Moore to Thomas but Teddy can feed his #1 receiver". He's just saying DJ is the main target and all Teddy has to do is complete the little short stuff that DJ is already good at. 

[Breesus 483]

22 minutes ago, mmcc1029 said:

He literally said "Not comparing Moore to Thomas but Teddy can feed his #1 receiver". He's just saying DJ is the main target and all Teddy has to do is complete the little short stuff that DJ is already good at. 

Thank you haha

[mmcc1029 1,462]

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Now we are comparing DJ Moore to Michael Thomas?  Very different players.  Thomas is much more physical and was able to outmuscle defenders and catch Bridgewater's wounded ducks for a short stretch.

To say that means Bridgewater will be able to successfully barrage the much smaller DJ Moore over an entire season is an open question.

Also, Thomas weighs 212lbs, DJ weighs 210lbs and is known for his awesome YAC ability so to act like DJ is some tiny gadget receiver is not really true. He's simply not as tall by 2 inches. There's been plenty of awesome 6ft receivers. 

[Breesus 483]

The age + talent + #1 WR + game script for him this season just seems like a lot of positives going his way. They are going to be in a lot of shootouts with their defense, that along with his talent screams breakout.

 

I agree Teddy is the biggest question mark, but if he can give him a healthy amount of targets like MT sky is the limit.

[SharkSwimmer 4,959]

1 hour ago, mmcc1029 said:

Also, Thomas weighs 212lbs, DJ weighs 210lbs and is known for his awesome YAC ability so to act like DJ is some tiny gadget receiver is not really true. He's simply not as tall by 2 inches. There's been plenty of awesome 6ft receivers. 

If height and weight were the only factors to determine how effective a WR could be, Dorial Green-Beckham would be leading the league.

Edited May 28, 2020 by SharkSwimmer

[JoeJoe88 1,164]

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If height and weight were the only factors to determine how effective a WR could be, Dorial Green-Beckham would be leading the league.

Yes, but DGB never sniffed a season like DJ just had, with shoddy, inconsistent QB play at that. Oh, and at age 22. Say what you will about Teddy, but he’s certainly an upgrade over Kyle Allen. 

[J.T. Marlin 972]

Let's also not undersell the hiring of Joe Brady as OC.  He learned under Sean Payton as an Offensive Assistant Coach in NO for 2 seasons (17-18) and just led the LSU passing attack to one of the best offensive seasons in college football history. 

23 year old 3rd year WR who just had great 1st and 2nd seasons in the NFL + bad defense + potentially great & pass happy OC = big season for DJ.  I think Bridgewater is more than competent enough to captain the ship.  I'm a buyer for 2020.

[paulwall29 850]

DJ Moore is a stud but the people that keep hyping the Joe Brady hiring are underselling the fact that the team was already #2 in passing volume and Bridgewater's career numbers are not too different than Kyle Allen's. Add in the fact that they signed Robby Anderson in free agency, a far better #3 option in the offense than they had last year, and I don't anticipate Moore's numbers being much better than they were a year ago, although there is def room for positive regression in the TD department. He was already on pace for 144 targets a year ago and I don't see why that would change this year. If people start reaching on Moore for the upside I'll sit back and take Thielen, A Rob or JuJu at a discount. If you can get DJ Moore at market price than draft away, he's a beast of a talent. I'd take him over Odell for sure.

Edited May 31, 2020 by paulwall29

[mocha4313 807]

Bridgewater's specialty is the short/intermediate routes Moore excels at.

I expect him to get peppered with targets like MT was by Bridgewater on a team that needs to throw. Top 5 WR this year is my semi hot take for him

 

Guys like Anderson and Samuel are the ones who will suffer in production relative to talent level because Bridgewater can't throw deep (Samuel already had that issue with Allen)

[Breesus 483]

15 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

DJ Moore is a stud but the people that keep hyping the Joe Brady hiring are underselling the fact that the team was already #2 in passing volume and Bridgewater's career numbers are not too different than Kyle Allen's. Add in the fact that they signed Robby Anderson in free agency, a far better #3 option in the offense than they had last year, and I don't anticipate Moore's numbers being much better than they were a year ago, although there is def room for positive regression in the TD department. He was already on pace for 144 targets a year ago and I don't see why that would change this year. If people start reaching on Moore for the upside I'll sit back and take Thielen, A Rob or JuJu at a discount. If you can get DJ Moore at market price than draft away, he's a beast of a talent. I'd take him over Odell for sure.

That’s a very good point. I hadn’t looked at that aspect, good post 

[joshua18 7,029]

16 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

DJ Moore is a stud but the people that keep hyping the Joe Brady hiring are underselling the fact that the team was already #2 in passing volume and Bridgewater's career numbers are not too different than Kyle Allen's. Add in the fact that they signed Robby Anderson in free agency, a far better #3 option in the offense than they had last year, and I don't anticipate Moore's numbers being much better than they were a year ago, although there is def room for positive regression in the TD department. He was already on pace for 144 targets a year ago and I don't see why that would change this year. If people start reaching on Moore for the upside I'll sit back and take Thielen, A Rob or JuJu at a discount. If you can get DJ Moore at market price than draft away, he's a beast of a talent. I'd take him over Odell for sure.

These are very intelligent points. No guarantee Bridgewater is a fantasy upgrade over the QB situation they had last year. 

[JoeJoe88 1,164]

4 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

These are very intelligent points. No guarantee Bridgewater is a fantasy upgrade over the QB situation they had last year. 

As someone who lives in NC and watched every Panther game last year, I would be shocked if the QB situation isn’t improved. 

[joshua18 7,029]

14 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

As someone who lives in NC and watched every Panther game last year, I would be shocked if the QB situation isn’t improved. 

I said from a fantasy perspective. Real-life is a different story, but we don’t care about that here.

[JoeJoe88 1,164]

5 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

I said from a fantasy perspective. Real-life is a different story, but we don’t care about that here.

Yeah, I mean they kind of go hand in hand to me in general. All those stupid, drive-ending sacks Kyle Allen took last year and the head-scratching interceptions that he threw should be much less frequent with Teddy. 

[BrianM 1,297]

Questioning volume is certainly fair, especially with Anderson now in the mix.  Personally i'm hanging my hat on an efficiency uptick, coupled with a defense that's in flux, in a division with some very strong offenses.   Moore may not explode as those of us stanning him most are hoping for, but he feels more than safe at his current ADP and with the high level upside you really want to to see in a WR2. 

[Stonej14 667]

On 5/31/2020 at 1:42 AM, paulwall29 said:

DJ Moore is a stud but the people that keep hyping the Joe Brady hiring are underselling the fact that the team was already #2 in passing volume and Bridgewater's career numbers are not too different than Kyle Allen's. Add in the fact that they signed Robby Anderson in free agency, a far better #3 option in the offense than they had last year, and I don't anticipate Moore's numbers being much better than they were a year ago, although there is def room for positive regression in the TD department. He was already on pace for 144 targets a year ago and I don't see why that would change this year. If people start reaching on Moore for the upside I'll sit back and take Thielen, A Rob or JuJu at a discount. If you can get DJ Moore at market price than draft away, he's a beast of a talent. I'd take him over Odell for sure.

I might be wrong here bud but I think he can’t have “positive regression” in the TD department he only had 2 tds in 2018. That would be negative regression right.. low TD numbers are his only knock against him even in college the most he had in a season was 8. 

But I agree with you on everything else you said. People will Absolutely reach for him and we should all take the discount options you listed 👍🏿👍🏿

 

[Boudewijn 4,720]

15 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

I might be wrong here bud but I think he can’t have “positive regression” in the TD department he only had 2 tds in 2018. That would be negative regression right.. low TD numbers are his only knock against him even in college the most he had in a season was 8. 

The whole word "regression" is quite twisted in fantasy football and not necessarily used how a statistician would used it. The idea is that if you flip a fair coin and you get only 2 head in 16 flips, then you would still expect that number to regress to 8 in the next 16 flips. That's regression to the mean.

In football, on average a WR scores a TD every 150 yd, so a guy like Moore who had 1200 TDs last year (and was the WR1 on his team) could reasonably be expected to have 8 TD. Regression to the mean would then mean that if next year he gets 1000-1200 yards again, and we consider him a "normal" WR in other respects and we don't think there is a structural reason why he has 50% lower TDs than other WRs, then he could "regress" to 8 TDs next season.

Often people in FF refer to a "regression" where the output increases to "positive regression", and I think that's what paulwall refers to. You ont he other hand refer to his college stats, where in fact he got a TD every 100 yards, so if you consider that would be his "normal", then you could even expect him to "regress" to 10-12 TD. However, College just isn't the same as the NFL so I don't think that's reasonable.

I think Moore just isn't that TD machine yet because of his style of play. His strong points are getting separation because he can beat a DB over the top, and he is great after the catch, but those are both points that don't really count in the Red Zone. He has decent size but can't simply bully defenders, and his route running is good enough but not elite.

In practice, Moore, CMC, Samuel and Olsen each got a similar numbber of RZ targets, but CMC and especially Samuel made a lot more of it:

So I think the relatively low number of TDs will go up a bit, but I don't think he'll get 8-10. That's just not how he plays.

 

[Stonej14 667]

20 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

The whole word "regression" is quite twisted in fantasy football and not necessarily used how a statistician would used it. The idea is that if you flip a fair coin and you get only 2 head in 16 flips, then you would still expect that number to regress to 8 in the next 16 flips. That's regression to the mean.

In football, on average a WR scores a TD every 150 yd, so a guy like Moore who had 1200 TDs last year (and was the WR1 on his team) could reasonably be expected to have 8 TD. Regression to the mean would then mean that if next year he gets 1000-1200 yards again, and we consider him a "normal" WR in other respects and we don't think there is a structural reason why he has 50% lower TDs than other WRs, then he could "regress" to 8 TDs next season.

Often people in FF refer to a "regression" where the output increases to "positive regression", and I think that's what paulwall refers to. You ont he other hand refer to his college stats, where in fact he got a TD every 100 yards, so if you consider that would be his "normal", then you could even expect him to "regress" to 10-12 TD. However, College just isn't the same as the NFL so I don't think that's reasonable.

I think Moore just isn't that TD machine yet because of his style of play. His strong points are getting separation because he can beat a DB over the top, and he is great after the catch, but those are both points that don't really count in the Red Zone. He has decent size but can't simply bully defenders, and his route running is good enough but not elite.

In practice, Moore, CMC, Samuel and Olsen each got a similar numbber of RZ targets, but CMC and especially Samuel made a lot more of it:

So I think the relatively low number of TDs will go up a bit, but I don't think he'll get 8-10. That's just not how he plays.

 

 

I always understood it as below:

“Regression would mean going back to what they have done in the past. Positive regression would mean that they are better than their recent performance, so they would be going back to a value higher than current value.”

So if Joe Schmoe in 2018 someone had 10TDs then in 2019 he only had 2tds we would say Joe Schmo is due for positive regression in 2020 meaning he will regress to his prior play before 2019 which was better. 

definitions aside I don’t see Moores ceiling being too high because I think his TD ceiling is capped too low similar to Julio Jones who is absolutely amazing but gets 1400 yards like clock work and has hard times getting into the top 5. I know Moore has never had good qbs but he still doesn’t really have one. I’d be ecstatic if he got 8 TDs this year Which is a really good year but I hope people are not expecting double digit TD numbers  

[BMcP 8,673]

9 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I always understood it as below:

“Regression would mean going back to what they have done in the past. Positive regression would mean that they are better than their recent performance, so they would be going back to a value higher than current value.”

So if Joe Schmoe in 2018 someone had 10TDs then in 2019 he only had 2tds we would say Joe Schmo is due for positive regression in 2020 meaning he will regress to his prior play before 2019 which was better. 

definitions aside I don’t see Moores ceiling being too high because I think his TD ceiling is capped too low similar to Julio Jones who is absolutely amazing but gets 1400 yards like clock work and has hard times getting into the top 5. I know Moore has never had good qbs but he still doesn’t really have one. I’d be ecstatic if he got 8 TDs this year Which is a really good year but I hope people are not expecting double digit TD numbers  

Bridgewater might be almost the perfect QB for him, given his tendency for accurate short-hitters which would allow Moore to fully display his YAC ability.

[Stonej14 667]

24 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Bridgewater might be almost the perfect QB for him, given his tendency for accurate short-hitters which would allow Moore to fully display his YAC ability.

Yea I haven’t bought in on teddy being the perfect qb for him narrative. Is he better than the bum last year? Probably... but I believe many many other QBs would fit DJs game better. But I could be wrong I’m excited to find out and think DJ will succeed nonetheless.

[JoeJoe88 1,164]

36 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Bridgewater might be almost the perfect QB for him, given his tendency for accurate short-hitters which would allow Moore to fully display his YAC ability.

This. This is what people are failing to realize with DJ this year. He’s going to feast with Teddy, especially in PPR. 

[BMcP 8,673]

20 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

This. This is what people are failing to realize with DJ this year. He’s going to feast with Teddy, especially in PPR. 

Exactly - same template that allowed Thomas to emerge as the best WR in the league - and why he didn’t skip a beat with Bridgewater under center.

[Fort4242 745]

1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I always understood it as below:

“Regression would mean going back to what they have done in the past. Positive regression would mean that they are better than their recent performance, so they would be going back to a value higher than current value.”

So if Joe Schmoe in 2018 someone had 10TDs then in 2019 he only had 2tds we would say Joe Schmo is due for positive regression in 2020 meaning he will regress to his prior play before 2019 which was better. 

definitions aside I don’t see Moores ceiling being too high because I think his TD ceiling is capped too low similar to Julio Jones who is absolutely amazing but gets 1400 yards like clock work and has hard times getting into the top 5. I know Moore has never had good qbs but he still doesn’t really have one. I’d be ecstatic if he got 8 TDs this year Which is a really good year but I hope people are not expecting double digit TD numbers  

I know this is the DJ Moore thread, but Julio Jones fantasy finishes in 0.5 PPR:

2019: WR4

2018: WR7 (missed being top 5 by 2 points)

2017: WR5

2016: WR8 (missed top 5 by 16 points - 1 point per game)

2015: WR1

I might be arguing semantics, but I wouldn't say Julio has had a HARD time getting to the top 5.  If he was getting TDs at the average rate of WRs, he would be the consensus #1 WR year in and year out.  

I don't think anyone is expecting double digit TDs out of DJ Moore, but maybe a bump up to the 6-8 range?  And I would argue Teddy B might be the best QB he's played with from an accuracy/intermediate passing standpoint, which is where Moore shines.  The only real competition I see for Moore is CMC.  Anderson is a deep threat and Samuel is a gadget player.  Moore had a 24.3% target share last year, which ranked #17 in the league.  So it's not like he was force fed tons of targets that won't be there this year.  

He is currently ranked as the WR13 on FP - he was the WR10 through Week 15 before he got hurt in Week 16.  I think Moore is pretty fairly priced, and maybe even a slight value.  I think I would draft him ahead of OBJ, Mike Evans, and JJSS - who are all ranked ahead of him.