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Odell Beckham 2020 Outlook


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On 9/5/2020 at 12:22 PM, PisEdiRin said:

 

Because he's on the same team in 2020 as he was in 2019.

From 2014-2018, he was playing on a different team.

2019 OBJ is the closest thing to 2020 OBJ.


Your argument is since this is a new team last years results are the most likely?

 

Cleveland gave up a player with some potential, a 1st and 2nd rounder to get a guy signed to a long term contract. So clearly they believe in him. He played last year with an injury that clearly hampered his production and practice time when trying to develop chemistry with a new QB. 
 

He had offseason surgery and is fully recovered already which is more than you can say for his main competition for targets who is likely to miss the start to the season. I believe the offense will be better this year with a new OC. Fantasy wise they maintained 2 stud WRs and a top HB. 
 

What WR taken near him offers his upside?  Last year aside the guy was a top 5 WR every year on a per game basis. 

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Son, just point to where on the doll that OBJ touched you.

Yes, there's a very decent chance you're right that Odell was a good player to fade, and I think a decent number of people do/would agree with you, but your issue is you come across as an arrogant pri

@PisEdiRin Hey man we cooked up something for ya have a seat.

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36 minutes ago, alleyce said:


Your argument is since this is a new team last years results are the most likely?

 

Cleveland gave up a player with some potential, a 1st and 2nd rounder to get a guy signed to a long term contract. So clearly they believe in him. He played last year with an injury that clearly hampered his production and practice time when trying to develop chemistry with a new QB. 
 

He had offseason surgery and is fully recovered already which is more than you can say for his main competition for targets who is likely to miss the start to the season. I believe the offense will be better this year with a new OC. Fantasy wise they maintained 2 stud WRs and a top HB. 
 

What WR taken near him offers his upside?  Last year aside the guy was a top 5 WR every year on a per game basis. 

You are saying Landry is going to miss the season opener? Isnt he practicing in full?

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On 9/5/2020 at 11:21 AM, PisEdiRin said:

 

 

Golden Rule of Fantasy Football: Never chase past production.

 

OBJ Drafters in 2020 are chasing points.

Maybe, but another Golden Rule is don't overvalue recency bias and draft a 2019 team for the 2020 season.  You draft players like Kamara, OBJ, and Thielen in 2020 who had bad years in 2019 because you're not playing to win the 2019 season, you're playing to win in 2020. 

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2 hours ago, alleyce said:

Your argument is since this is a new team last years results are the most likely?

 

His production with Baker throwing him the football is far more indicative of his future production with Baker throwing him the football.

How good OBJ was with Eli really doesn't mean much for 2020, because now he's stuck with Baker Mayfield who is absolute garbage.

I don't think anyone is questioning the skill, talent, or ability of OBJ.  He absolutely has top 5 upside... if his QB can get him the ball.

OBJ was a 1300\10 WR when Eli threw the ball nonstop to OBJ, because they had no real run game and no real WR2.

Now, OBJ is on a team that runs non stop, has not only 1, but 2 RBs better than the Giants ever had during OBJs prime, and a #2WR that averages 1,086 yards over the past 5 seasons.

Maybe last season was a fluke, maybe it was related to the injury.  Maybe Baker Mayfield turns his career around or makes a 3rd year leap.

All off-season I've watched people cry that Keenan Allen can't possibly be a WR1 because of Tyrod Taylor.  Then look at Baker's stats and he's suppose to make OBJ a top 5 WR on top of Landry's top 15 production?

Baker better make some huge strides this year, or OBJs ceiling will remain capped.

Amari and Moore both offer top 5 upside without much changing other than a swing in TDs. Kupp actually was a top 5 WR last year and is currently being drafted after OBJ.

Keenan Allen, Ty Hilton, and AJ Green all offer top 5 'upside' as well in my opinion, for 1-2 cheaper than OBJ, but with lower floors and more health\QB questions.

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13 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

His production with Baker throwing him the football is far more indicative of his future production with Baker throwing him the football.

How good OBJ was with Eli really doesn't mean much for 2020, because now he's stuck with Baker Mayfield who is absolute garbage.

I don't think anyone is questioning the skill, talent, or ability of OBJ.  He absolutely has top 5 upside... if his QB can get him the ball.

OBJ was a 1300\10 WR when Eli threw the ball nonstop to OBJ, because they had no real run game and no real WR2.

Now, OBJ is on a team that runs non stop, has not only 1, but 2 RBs better than the Giants ever had during OBJs prime, and a #2WR that averages 1,086 yards over the past 5 seasons.

Maybe last season was a fluke, maybe it was related to the injury.  Maybe Baker Mayfield turns his career around or makes a 3rd year leap.

All off-season I've watched people cry that Keenan Allen can't possibly be a WR1 because of Tyrod Taylor.  Then look at Baker's stats and he's suppose to make OBJ a top 5 WR on top of Landry's top 15 production?

Baker better make some huge strides this year, or OBJs ceiling will remain capped.

Amari and Moore both offer top 5 upside without much changing other than a swing in TDs. Kupp actually was a top 5 WR last year and is currently being drafted after OBJ.

Keenan Allen, Ty Hilton, and AJ Green all offer top 5 'upside' as well in my opinion, for 1-2 cheaper than OBJ, but with lower floors and more health\QB questions.

With Odell, he is realistically an 8-12 TD kind of guy. It doesn’t matter who’s throwing him the ball 4 TDs is an anomaly. Even if we gave him 8 TDs he would’ve been a borderline top 15 WR last year.

Landry hasn’t had double digit TDs once in his career. I agree that Odell on the Browns isn’t the same as on the Giants. However, 80/1100/10 with Baker isn’t anything out of question or even a reach. That’s already damn close to top 5 in half PPR.

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12 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

His production with Baker throwing him the football is far more indicative of his future production with Baker throwing him the football.

How good OBJ was with Eli really doesn't mean much for 2020, because now he's stuck with Baker Mayfield who is absolute garbage.

I don't think anyone is questioning the skill, talent, or ability of OBJ.  He absolutely has top 5 upside... if his QB can get him the ball.

OBJ was a 1300\10 WR when Eli threw the ball nonstop to OBJ, because they had no real run game and no real WR2.

Now, OBJ is on a team that runs non stop, has not only 1, but 2 RBs better than the Giants ever had during OBJs prime, and a #2WR that averages 1,086 yards over the past 5 seasons.

Maybe last season was a fluke, maybe it was related to the injury.  Maybe Baker Mayfield turns his career around or makes a 3rd year leap.

All off-season I've watched people cry that Keenan Allen can't possibly be a WR1 because of Tyrod Taylor.  Then look at Baker's stats and he's suppose to make OBJ a top 5 WR on top of Landry's top 15 production?

Baker better make some huge strides this year, or OBJs ceiling will remain capped.

Amari and Moore both offer top 5 upside without much changing other than a swing in TDs. Kupp actually was a top 5 WR last year and is currently being drafted after OBJ.

Keenan Allen, Ty Hilton, and AJ Green all offer top 5 'upside' as well in my opinion, for 1-2 cheaper than OBJ, but with lower floors and more health\QB questions.

Agree with most points on this post.  But also want to say comparing Eli to Baker is not like comparing Brady to Baker.  I think Baker is capable of reaching new heights.  And its just a matter of discipline and a change in coaching regime.  If both of those aspects are on track this season, I dont know why the Browns situation cant be similar to Falcons where they were able to support a good running game, Julio and WR2.

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

His production with Baker throwing him the football is far more indicative of his future production with Baker throwing him the football.

How good OBJ was with Eli really doesn't mean much for 2020, because now he's stuck with Baker Mayfield who is absolute garbage.

I don't think anyone is questioning the skill, talent, or ability of OBJ.  He absolutely has top 5 upside... if his QB can get him the ball.

OBJ was a 1300\10 WR when Eli threw the ball nonstop to OBJ, because they had no real run game and no real WR2.

Now, OBJ is on a team that runs non stop, has not only 1, but 2 RBs better than the Giants ever had during OBJs prime, and a #2WR that averages 1,086 yards over the past 5 seasons.

Maybe last season was a fluke, maybe it was related to the injury.  Maybe Baker Mayfield turns his career around or makes a 3rd year leap.

All off-season I've watched people cry that Keenan Allen can't possibly be a WR1 because of Tyrod Taylor.  Then look at Baker's stats and he's suppose to make OBJ a top 5 WR on top of Landry's top 15 production?

Baker better make some huge strides this year, or OBJs ceiling will remain capped.

Amari and Moore both offer top 5 upside without much changing other than a swing in TDs. Kupp actually was a top 5 WR last year and is currently being drafted after OBJ.

Keenan Allen, Ty Hilton, and AJ Green all offer top 5 'upside' as well in my opinion, for 1-2 cheaper than OBJ, but with lower floors and more health\QB questions.

You are using a single season when (i) OBJ was hurt and disgruntled, (ii) coaching was a problem, and (iii) o-line play was putrid to suggest that Baker cannot support OBJ as a top 5 WR.

(1) OBJ is healthy now:

Quote

"Odell's free and clear," Stefanski said. "He's 100 percent and looking really good."

 

(2) Odell has a better playcaller who is working with him and not against him.  He is going to see 25% of targets (~125) and will be top 3 in the league in deep targets.

Quote

"One of the things we talked about is how he's going to factor in this offense, and I showed him a bunch of tape from the previous Vikings year, I showed him tape from his Giants years, and just my vision for what he's going to be capable of doing in this offense."

“It’s very obvious to everybody, the skill set of Odell,” Stefanski. “He’s a player that when he touches the rock he can go the distance, and there’s not many like that in the NFL. [I’m] really excited to put him in a scheme where I hope we’re getting the most out of him, and putting him in position to make big plays.‘'

 

(3)  The O-Line will be much better. Baker took 40 sacks in 2019 and deep targets rarely had time to open up.  The Browns signed the top RT (Conklin) in free agency and spent a top 10 pick on a LT.  They also replaced Njoku with a better pass blocking TE in Hooper.

I think the biggest risk with OBJ is going to be the run/pass ratio and pace of play.  Stefanski will likely run a 1:1 ratio.  It slows the game and likely puts the Browns at 60-63 plays per game which caps OBJ's targets around 120-130 targets.  However, I do think like Diggs, OBJ's 2020 target effciiency will make up for the lack of volume as I ecpect a decent jump in his y/r.

I still project OBJ for 130 tgts, 81 receptions, 1335 yds, 8 TD's.  [Which would top or match the best seasons from Allen, Moore, Cooper, and Kupp] 

OBJ also has some upside on the target front if Cleveand's defense falters.  Stefanski cannot stick to his preferred 1:1 script without a solid defense.  The Browns are thin in the secondary and a Denzel Ward injury could send them towards the bottom of the league in pass defense.

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1 hour ago, Euphonetics said:

still project OBJ for 130 tgts, 81 receptions, 1335 yds, 8 TD's. 

3 of these are very reasonable.  The yardage is not.

The reality is that Baker is 75% of what Eli was.  Predicting 100% of the yardage on 25% less targets and catches, for a career high yards per reception rate is insane.

No, I'm not using a single season, I'm using both seasons we've seen Baker throw the football.  My concerns have NOTHING to do with OBJ.  Put OBJ in the place of Julio, Adams, Thomas, etc and he's easily ranked and drafted top 5.  This is 100% related to Baker.  I'm not saying he "can't", I'm saying Baker "has to" take a HUGE step forward to make OBJ a top 5 WR.

Better play calls and a better oline will help, but Baker still has to make the right read, and execute the right throw.  Unfortunately, that's where OBJ gets trapped by Baker.  If Baker gets a 'little better' it likely hurts OBJ, because like Jamie's Winston and TB last year, if Baker doesn't throw 20INTs... his attempts, completions, and passing yards are going DOWN, not up.  If Cle controls the ball better, that leads to less passing volume, more running, more clock killing.

The only win for OBJ, in my eyes, is Baker makes a massive step forward.  Can he?  Sure, he's young enough, and 2 years is not a fair evaluation period for a QB.  But for fantasy purposes, in order for OBJ to truly benefit, Baker has to be significantly better than he has been this far.

If this is who Baker really is... OBJ is screwed.

If Baker only gets more efficient... It likely hurts OBJs overall volume.  If Baker regresses, it likely also hurts OBJ.  I don't think he can possibly throw more INT than last year.

I do find it odd that you feel the addition of Austin Hooper is a benefit to OBJ, because I assume the exact opposite.  

CLE TEs last year combined for only 69 targets, 41 catches, and 497 yards.

Austin Hooper, by himself, in only 13 games played, had 97 targets, 75 catches, and 787 yards last year.  That's a bad sign for OBJ in my opinion.

Honestly, 4k yards and 30 TDs is all Baker needs to hit, for OBJ to have top 5 potential I think.  Last year Cle TEs combined for 9TDs.  RBs only combined for 1. (Receiving)

I doubt either of these repeat. (TE down, RB up)

Landry falls to 4 or 5, TEs fall to 5 or 6, OBJ jumps to 10, RBs 2 or 3, and 3 or 4 to the field... 24-28 passing TDs.

It's plausible.  But 1335 yards on only 130 targets and 81 receptions?  16.5 YPR? From a QB who only throws 3500 to start with?  Extremely unlikely.

Only 2 WRs hit double digit TDs last year.  Only 8 WRs had a YPC of 16.5 or higher.

You're projecting OBJ to do both... With Baker Mayfield... On the Browns.

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