Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook

[Corleone 1,967]

1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

They are going to throw more based on GB history/schedule will force it.

Looking at their schedule they have: Lions, Saints, Falcons, Bucs, Texans, 49ers, Eagles, Lions, Panthers. IMO they are going to have to throw to keep up in 9/16 games and this could mean abandoning the run.

Plus Green Bay is traditionally top 10 in passing attempts.

2019- #2,

2018-#8,

2017-Rodgers injury 

2016- #1

2015- #3

2014- #12

This guy is making up numbers. It's one thing to have an opinion on a player. It's another thing to flat-out lie and present those lies as facts, just to push one's agenda. Literally every ranking above is wrong.

The actual numbers, which can easily be checked at https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/index.htm, are:

2019 - #16 
2018 - #3 
2017 - #14 
2016 - #5
2015 - #18
2014 - #20 

[JoeJoe88 1,164]

14 minutes ago, cbsholy said:

Care to elaborate on this? 

He probably just “sold high” on him in dynasty. 

[TwoCan Sam 293]

25 minutes ago, GOAT-dell Beckham said:

I love how no one has considered that Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon are battling for the same role/ total number of snaps. 

This. Or the reality that both Jones and Williams are FAs after this season, therefore they’re prepared to lose one/both of them. Dillon is insurance and will only get looks if Jones/Williams miss time.

[yanksman 3,781]

2 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

 

He isnt a bellcow but your drafting him like one.He splits ALOT/snaps/starts/carries with Williams, now they also have dillon.

 

Dumb argument. Hes going in the mid-2nd round. Guys like Kamara, Jacobs, Chubb are not bell cow backs by your definition and going way before him.

[yanksman 3,781]

he scores too many TDs is the dumbest argument I ever heard too

[this guy right here 1,055]

1 hour ago, yanksman said:

The only time in my life where I heard an injured stud WR being out HELPED a RB. Thats a new one.

 

When there is NO ONE else that is good he got the ball. He was the offense. He's talented and made the best of it. NEVER questioned his talent. No one does. 

The issue is they don't give him the ball enough. It's been the gripe any knowledgable fan/ fantasy owner has had his entire career. Even last year, though he had good numbers, people wanted him to get the ball more. He played 60% of the snaps and had 58% of the teams carries....NOT GOOD. NOW, they spent high draft capital on a short yardage/goal line back. So, that doesn't bode well for him getting the same, never mind MORE carries/snaps/TDs.

PLEASE tell me you get it now. 

[yanksman 3,781]

1 minute ago, this guy right here said:

 

When there is NO ONE else that is good he got the ball. He was the offense. He's talented and made the best of it. NEVER questioned his talent. No one does. 

The issue is they don't give him the ball enough. It's been the gripe any knowledgable fan/ fantasy owner has had his entire career. Even last year, though he had good numbers, people wanted him to get the ball more. He played 60% of the snaps and had 58% of the teams carries....NOT GOOD. NOW, they spent high draft capital on a short yardage/goal line back. So, that doesn't bode well for him getting the same, never mind MORE carries/snaps/TDs.

PLEASE tell me you get it now. 

99% of the time a stud WR goes down everyone fears the defense stacking the box to stop the run. But not Jones. Hes the exception. MAKES SENSE

[TwoCan Sam 293]

He’ll be just fine. Most people drafted him as their RB2 or paired him with a WR1. He’s involved in the passing game too and he’s efficient even with the ~60% snap rate. 
 

Just as much risk as the other RBs going around him like Sanders/Drake/Ekeler/etc.

 

also a huge point I wanna make:

This is the team who has Rodgers yet drafted Love first round. So who knows what they want to do moving forward. Similar logic can be said for the Dillon pick.

Edited September 10, 2020 by TwoCan Sam

[this guy right here 1,055]

2 minutes ago, yanksman said:

99% of the time a stud WR goes down everyone fears the defense stacking the box to stop the run. But not Jones. Hes the exception. MAKES SENSE

 

The numbers prove it yet yo ignore the truth because you are incapable of admitting you are wrong.

 

4 hours ago, this guy right here said:

 

7 of his 19 TDs .....36.8%

22 of his 49 RECs ......44.8%

In the 4 gms Adams missed.....25%

He has a bit of a point.

 

 

 

They probably did game plan for him...but guess what? Aaron Rodgers is a great QB. Also, those four games they played DAL, DET, OAK, KC.

So, the extra volume he got lead to more production despite the defense stacking the box....because the defenses sucked and GB has Aaron Rodgers.

I know I'm wasting my time. You don't read any of the posts. You just respond with your preprared deflections that provide zero evidence that comes anywhere close to makiing a solid argument. Just  your opinions and what you want to be true. 

He's a great football player. I drafted him in the second. Pretending their is no concern WHEN THE SAME CONCERN, his snap/carries, just became more worrisome with the addition of a running back they spent high draft capital. Once again because I know you didn't read it/can't understand.  He played 60% of the snaps and had 58% of the teams carries....NOT GOOD. NOW, they spent high draft capital on a short yardage/goal line back. So, that doesn't bode well for him getting the same, never mind MORE carries/snaps/TDs.

[FitzMagic 4,260]

This league winner gets absolutely no respect, no matter what he does. He gets less respect than that bum Fournette. ABSOLUTE STUD! Draft with confidence. Set and forget (except on bye week).

Waving to the haters...

Edited September 10, 2020 by FitzMagic

[yanksman 3,781]

Small sample sizes are always a good thing to draw conclusions from. 4 WHOLE games, one of which he scored 4 TDs and another in which he scored 3 TDs, but yeah LETS DRAW CONCLUSIONS FROM THAT!

[Lamont Sanford 1,800]

32 minutes ago, yanksman said:

he scores too many TDs is the dumbest argument I ever heard too

Nobody ever made the argument that “he scores too many TDs”. Honestly, framing it that way sounds dumb because nobody would ever say that. 

Obviously, scoring TDs is great. The more the better. But if a potentially significant negative TD regression is expected, then drafting a player at an ADP largely based on the previous years outlier TD total is unwise. Doesn’t mean Jones isn’t a great RB, just means his 2020 ADP may be inflated based on 2019’s TD total which is likely to go unrepeated. You’re paying for last years numbers, instead of this years projection. 

It’s not about whether Jones is a good RB or not. It’s more about paying low end RB1/high end RB2 prices for a mid range RB2. Not a massive discrepancy, but these are the kind of discussions we have this time of year. I think most of us would be happy to roster Jones. It’s simply a discussion about at what price when considering other players with a similar ADP. 

 

[EaglesRocker97 211]

15 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Nobody ever made the argument that “he scores too many TDs”. Honestly, framing it that way sounds dumb because nobody would ever say that. 

Obviously, scoring TDs is great. The more the better. But if a potentially significant negative TD regression is expected, then drafting a player at an ADP largely based on the previous years outlier TD total is unwise. Doesn’t mean Jones isn’t a great RB, just means his 2020 ADP may be inflated based on 2019’s TD total which is likely to go unrepeated. You’re paying for last years numbers, instead of this years projection. 

It’s not about whether Jones is a good RB or not. It’s more about paying low end RB1/high end RB2 prices for a mid range RB2. Not a massive discrepancy, but these are the kind of discussions we have this time of year. I think most of us would be happy to roster Jones. It’s simply a discussion about at what price when considering other players with a similar ADP. 

 

I don't think anyone drafted Jones expecting anywhere near 19 TDs again, but he could still have "significant TD regression" and be scoring like 10-12 of them. That's a fine deal.

Edited September 10, 2020 by EaglesRocker97

[nmartinez12443 558]

1 hour ago, yanksman said:

Dumb argument. Hes going in the mid-2nd round. Guys like Kamara, Jacobs, Chubb are not bell cow backs by your definition and going way before him.

Kamara is in a top 5 offense and will catch 90-100 passes not comparable. 

Jacobs is only going so high because he is projected for a 3 down role which many  people buy, but I dont buy it and have 

Chubb is similar to Jones and both are being overdrafted in full ppr and splitting too many snaps/touches for my liking and will regress this year.

[Lamont Sanford 1,800]

Just now, EaglesRocker97 said:

I don't think anyone drafted Jones expecting anywhere near 19 TDs again, but he could still have "significant TD regression" and be scoring like 10-12 of them. That's a fine deal.

It could be a fantastic deal, just depends  on where you drafted him, how many total yards accompany the TDs, etc. If you drafted Jones at an ADP based on 19 TDs in 2019, and he only scores 10 TDs in 2020, then you probably overpaid. Doesn’t mean 10 TDs sucks, it’s just a conversation about value.
 

 

[JoeJoe88 1,164]

13 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Kamara is in a top 5 offense and will catch 90-100 passes not comparable. 

Jacobs is only going so high because he is projected for a 3 down role which many  people buy, but I dont buy it and have 

Chubb is similar to Jones and both are being overdrafted in full ppr and splitting too many snaps/touches for my liking and will regress this year.

You realize there’s only about 5 true bellcow backs in the entire league now, right? 

[yahyahtrick 532]

11 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

It could be a fantastic deal, just depends  on where you drafted him, how many total yards accompany the TDs, etc. If you drafted Jones at an ADP based on 19 TDs in 2019, and he only scores 10 TDs in 2020, then you probably overpaid. Doesn’t mean 10 TDs sucks, it’s just a conversation about value.
 

 

 

TD regression is already baked into his ADP. If it was based off of 19 TDs he'd be going top 3.

Even if you took 10 TDs away from him, he would have been RB8 in half PPR for 2019.

[Tomei7 591]

6 hours ago, kmoore1521 said:

ah the winds of change in this thread, such a diff tone now hah

 appreciate all the skepticism letting me snag Jones cheap in both my money leagues though

 

about to sign an extension, nose for the end zone, good receiving back, good QB, Run based Head Coach

 

choo.........................choo

Ur woke bro!! I like it!

[Tomei7 591]

1 hour ago, FitzMagic said:

This league winner gets absolutely no respect, no matter what he does. He gets less respect than that bum Fournette. ABSOLUTE STUD! Draft with confidence. Set and forget (except on bye week).

Waving to the haters...

Please “knock some sense in these doubters”!! This is a no brainer, mid to late 2nd!! C’mon guys wake up, unless it’s to late, and ur trying to make ur self feel better by hating on they guy cause u passed on him. 😂 

[Tomei7 591]

57 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Kamara is in a top 5 offense and will catch 90-100 passes not comparable. 

Jacobs is only going so high because he is projected for a 3 down role which many  people buy, but I dont buy it and have 

Chubb is similar to Jones and both are being overdrafted in full ppr and splitting too many snaps/touches for my liking and will regress this year.

Kamara catching 90-100 passes???!!! Quit exaggerating to make urself feel correct. More like 75-85, he’s never caught more than 81 in his prime, do the numbers. Ur credibility is dropping each take u give. Please stop

Edited September 10, 2020 by Tomei7

[nmartinez12443 558]

13 minutes ago, Tomei7 said:

Kamara catching 90-100 passes???!!! Quit exaggerating to make urself feel correct. More like 75-85, he’s never caught more than 81 in his prime, do the numbers. Ur credibility is dropping each take u give. Please stop

He had 81 catches in 14 games. So thats 6 catches per game so yeah 92 catches. 

Edited September 10, 2020 by nmartinez12443

[nmartinez12443 558]

3 hours ago, Corleone said:

This guy is making up numbers. It's one thing to have an opinion on a player. It's another thing to flat-out lie and present those lies as facts, just to push one's agenda. Literally every ranking above is wrong.

The actual numbers, which can easily be checked at https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/index.htm, are:

2019 - #16 
2018 - #3 
2017 - #14 
2016 - #5
2015 - #18
2014 - #20 

Lying pretty harsh term, perhaps my numbers included playoffs. But this is from https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/passingAttempts/dir/desc

Regular Season

2019- Rodgers 8th with 569 Attempts

2018- Rodgers 6th with 597 Attempts

2017- Rodgers was injured

2016- Rodgers 4th with 610 Attempts

2015- Rodgers 10th with 572 Attempts.

 

SO LIKE I SAID "Green Bay is traditionally top 10 in passing attempts".

[this guy right here 1,055]

6 hours ago, Tomei7 said:

More like 75-85, he’s never caught more than 81 in his prime, do the numbers.

 

It's his 4th year. He's 25...still in his prime. He caught 81 passes last year in 14 games while nicked up. Which would put him on pace for 92....on a down year. Not out of the realm of possibility he improves on 81. He averages 81. Every year 81 receptions for three years. He may have never caught more but he's never caught less and was on pace for MORE last season.

 

Numbers did.

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by this guy right here

[Lamont Sanford 1,800]

8 hours ago, yahyahtrick said:

 

TD regression is already baked into his ADP. If it was based off of 19 TDs he'd be going top 3.

Even if you took 10 TDs away from him, he would have been RB8 in half PPR for 2019.

I don’t disagree that it was baked into his ADP. That’s actually the point I was trying to make. Yanksman claimed that some people were making the argument that “Jones scores too many TDs”. Nobody has ever made that argument because it makes absolutely no sense. The discussion of Jones TD regression was simply about adjusting his ADP accordingly, not knocking Jones because “he scores too many TDs”. Yanksman didn’t seem to understand that discussion so I tried to explain it. 

[Corleone 1,967]

7 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Lying pretty harsh term, perhaps my numbers included playoffs. But this is from https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/passingAttempts/dir/desc

Regular Season

2019- Rodgers 8th with 569 Attempts

2018- Rodgers 6th with 597 Attempts

2017- Rodgers was injured

2016- Rodgers 4th with 610 Attempts

2015- Rodgers 10th with 572 Attempts.

 

SO LIKE I SAID "Green Bay is traditionally top 10 in passing attempts".

Let's see your initial link then, where "perhaps numbers included playoffs" (which is completely laughable as an excuse).

The FACTS are what I showed them to be...Green Bay as a team is NOT traditionally top 10 in passing attempts over the period you yourself chose (and BTW, you do realize they got a new coach in 2019, right?).

GB has been top 10 in 2 of the past 6 years. Either admit you were wrong, or admit you were lying. Don't double-down on your stance, because if you try and do that, well that proves you are lying.