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Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook


K197040
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I find it funny that everyone focuses on how lucky Jones was with the TDs last year, yet I’ve not seen anyone bring up the fact that his first two years his ypc was up at 5.5 and last year it dipped to 4.6. I think there’s an argument to be made that he actually underperformed last year when it comes to that rushing yardage. 

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10 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Let's see your initial link then, where "perhaps numbers included playoffs" (which is completely laughable as an excuse).

The FACTS are what I showed them to be...Green Bay as a team is NOT traditionally top 10 in passing attempts over the period you yourself chose (and BTW, you do realize they got a new coach in 2019, right?).

GB has been top 10 in 2 of the past 6 years. Either admit you were wrong, or admit you were lying. Don't double-down on your stance, because if you try and do that, well that proves you are lying.

How am I lying when I gave a link and specific numbers the last time? Rodgers has literally been in the top 10 in passing attempts the last 5 years its a fact not an opinion. Your figures either are for 16 games or including playoffs.

Also that point is the most minor of all my arguements. He doesnt play enough snaps, inconsistent, and his situation got worse with the addition of dillon and healthy adams/williams. 

 

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8 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

How am I lying when I gave a link and specific numbers the last time? Rodgers has literally been in the top 10 in passing attempts the last 5 years its a fact not an opinion. Your figures either are for 16 games or including playoffs.

Also that point is the most minor of all my arguements. He doesnt play enough snaps, inconsistent, and his situation got worse with the addition of dillon and healthy adams/williams. 

 

You didn't give a link the first time dude. The first time you provided numbers, it was obvious they were false. I then posted a link to prove your numbers were false. You then stated "perhaps my numbers included playoffs". So where is THAT link? The one that "perhaps included playoffs"?

"Your figures either are for 16 games or including playoffs.". Of course they're for 16 games...the number of games each team plays in the regular season. And the regular season is what all cumulative stat lines are counted for. 

And now you try and backtrack my saying "that point is the most minor of all my arguements"? Dude, it is very obvious you are a phony. Your arguments have been being shot down since this thread started at the beginning of 2020. Yet you continue to harp on Jones...why? 

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it’s awful foolish to argue over who was and wasn’t top 10 in passing attempts the last 5 years.    Only last season was under the LaFleur regime.   They’re a running team who takes advantage of the resulting play action.  
 

We’ve also heard all this J Will hype before.   It was last season and Jones went out and left no doubt who’s the franchise back.   
 

just distractions 

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44 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

How am I lying when I gave a link and specific numbers the last time? Rodgers has literally been in the top 10 in passing attempts the last 5 years its a fact not an opinion. Your figures either are for 16 games or including playoffs.

Also that point is the most minor of all my arguements. He doesnt play enough snaps, inconsistent, and his situation got worse with the addition of dillon and healthy adams/williams. 

 

Rodgers top 10 in pass attempts <> team top 10 in pass attempts. HTH

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14 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Obviously, scoring TDs is great. The more the better. But if a potentially significant negative TD regression is expected, then drafting a player at an ADP largely based on the previous years outlier TD total is unwise. Doesn’t mean Jones isn’t a great RB, just means his 2020 ADP may be inflated based on 2019’s TD total which is likely to go unrepeated. You’re paying for last years numbers, instead of this years projection. 

It’s not about whether Jones is a good RB or not. It’s more about paying low end RB1/high end RB2 prices for a mid range RB2. Not a massive discrepancy, but these are the kind of discussions we have this time of year. I think most of us would be happy to roster Jones. It’s simply a discussion about at what price when considering other players with a similar ADP. 

 

Take 10 TD's away last year still RB8 in .5 PPR which is a RB1 in every league, will be a top 12 RB even with regression, not sure why people keep referring to him in any context as a RB2, especially you saying mid range RB2 which i definitely do not understand 

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3 hours ago, yanksman said:

Rodgers top 10 in pass attempts <> team top 10 in pass attempts. HTH

This.

Rodgers was 8th in pass attempted last year as a player... But Green Bay was 16th in pass attempts as a team.

GB passed 609, ran 411 times, 1020 plays... Thats 59.7% pass, 40.3% run... They ranked 16th in pass attempts, 13th in rushing attempts... That's a balanced attack compared to the league.

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59 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

Take 10 TD's away last year still RB8 in .5 PPR which is a RB1 in every league, will be a top 12 RB even with regression, not sure why people keep referring to him in any context as a RB2, especially you saying mid range RB2 which i definitely do not understand 

He could definitely finish as an RB1, no question. But you also have to factor in the potential for guys like CEH, Mixon, Jacobs, Sanders,Chubb, Conner, etc finishing op 12 as well. So I can also definitely see a scenario where Jones finishes as a mid-range RB2. There’s usually not a huge point difference between a low RB1 and mid-range RB2. I could see Jones being anywhere from 
the middle to the end of this list. 

CMC

Barkley

Zeke

Kamara

Cook

Henry

CEH

Jacobs

Mixon

Sanders

Drake

Ekeler

Chubb

Conner

Taylor

Ingram

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8 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

He could definitely finish as an RB1, no question. But you also have to factor in the potential for guys like CEH, Mixon, Jacobs, Sanders,Chubb, Conner, etc finishing op 12 as well. So I can also definitely see a scenario where Jones finishes as a mid-range RB2. There’s usually not a huge point difference between a low RB1 and mid-range RB2. I could see Jones being anywhere from 
the middle to the end of this list. 

 

Oh i agree with you there, however many of those guys would need to jump into that range, where as AJones has proven to already be there, so until we see him drop out and others vault past him (would need the Packers to move away from a guy who literally made them as good as they were last year which i cant see the rationale supporting that even from the Dillon/Williams truthers), grinds my gears seeing people say RB2 is all hah no worries

 

Edit: to pile on, the rumors of them looking to extend AJones further hints that they will not scale back his workload and that in fact Dillon/Williams are merely competing for secondary touches, and id venture to say they drafted Dillon to take over Williams role after they let Williams walk, and with the same workload, with TD regression, AJones is a safe RB1 (dude has a nose for the end zone)

Edited by kmoore1521
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1 minute ago, LAeagle said:

This thread is quiet. Haven’t really been here since my other players are more problematic. Guess that’s a good thing? Haha 

Yes. He would’ve been more involved if the Vikings secondary wasn’t just begging Rodgers to exploit them. Rock solid RB1

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16 minutes ago, LAeagle said:

This thread is quiet. Haven’t really been here since my other players are more problematic. Guess that’s a good thing? Haha 

Top 5 RB, ho hum. 

He easily could have had 2 TDs on Sunday, but one was called back by inches. We might not even have to worry about TD regression if this offense keeps humming. 

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11 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Top 5 RB, ho hum. 

He easily could have had 2 TDs on Sunday, but one was called back by inches. We might not even have to worry about TD regression if this offense keeps humming. 

Where is he a top 5 RB?   Even with a second TD, he'd be #9.   His usage was good for Game 1.  Hope it continues.

But it's hard to see him cracking the Top 5 at end of season.

Edited by K197040
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4 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Top 2 last year with his 19 tds in my league.

Yeah...I understand that.   I don't that means he should still be referred to as a Top 5 RB unless he's actually in the top 5 or a poster is projecting him to be a Top 5 RB.  I mean, I'm not going to refer to Leonard Fournette as a Top 7 RB. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, K197040 said:

Yeah...I understand that.   I don't that means he should still be referred to as a Top 5 RB unless he's actually in the top 5 or a poster is projecting him to be a Top 5 RB.

 

 

He just said top 5 RB. Nothing to see here type comment. Thinking he will be top 5 finisher like he was # 2 last year. Not that he was top 5 week one.

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2 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

He just said top 5 RB. Nothing to see here type comment. Thinking he will be top 5 finisher like he was # 2 last year. Not that he was top 5 week one.

That's how I took it...he meant Top 5 for this year.   As much as I'd like that to happen, I don't see it.

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9 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Where is he a top 5 RB?   Even with a second TD, he'd be #9.   His usage was good for Game 1.  Hope it continues.

But it's hard to see him cracking the Top 5 at end of season.

I mean, Hines, Mostert, and Malcolm Brown shouldn't be rated ahead of Jones, even though they had monster week ones. 

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