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Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook


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I stopped reading here 

Suddenly lots of love in here. You mean we shouldn't be shying away because his team used a mid round pick (last pick of the second round) on a depth/insurance RB. I thought that was supposed to be th

Some people believe that their "RB1" has to be a "workhorse RB". But the trend of the workhorse RB as it used to be thought of, is getting close to extinct. I've looked up RB trends for Top 12 RB's (i

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9 minutes ago, cbsholy said:

Curious what Jones is averaging this year with Davante in the lineup vs out of the lineup 

He's averaging 18 ppg with Adams out, and over 20 ppg with Adams around.

So, it doesn't matter. Jones is a stud. Period.

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22 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

He's averaging 18 ppg with Adams out, and over 20 ppg with Adams around.

So, it doesn't matter. Jones is a stud. Period.

Thanks, I was moreso curious in terms of carries, TDs, red zone usage, and how that all breaks down with Adams in the lineup vs not. Im not in a league with typical fantasy scoring so the usual FPPG is irrelevant for me (I know I'm in the minority. Just wanted to explain my reasoning) 

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16 minutes ago, cbsholy said:

Thanks, I was moreso curious in terms of carries, TDs, red zone usage, and how that all breaks down with Adams in the lineup vs not. Im not in a league with typical fantasy scoring so the usual FPPG is irrelevant for me (I know I'm in the minority. Just wanted to explain my reasoning) 

Everything is super consistent. Granted it was only 2 games without Adams, but he had 15 and 16 carries. He had one rushing TD, and one receiving TD in those two games. The rest of the year, he's basically averaging exactly 15 carries per game, with 4 rushing TDs and a receiving TD.

I just don't think it really changes anything. The offense overall is going to be better with Adams, so probably helps a little to have him play.

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EXPERT NOTE

Just as we suspected, the Packers went to more of a timeshare with both of these backs healthy. Jones finished with 19 opportunities while Williams had 12 of them, which isn't ideal for fantasy purposes. Fortunately, Jones is one of the most efficient running backs in football. The downside is that they're going from a matchup with the league's third-best matchup for running backs to the one that's the second-toughest for running backs. On average, running backs score 5.3 fewer fantasy points than their league average against the Colts. The only running back who's totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against Matt Eberflus' defense in his two and a half years there is Derrick Henry. We're talking a 41-game sample size, so this run defense is no joke. If you look at fantasy points allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Colts have allowed 59.9 PPR points per game to all of them combined, which is the lowest number in the NFL. By comparison, the Seahawks have allowed 57.2 PPR points per game to wide receivers alone. There have been just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 188.8 PPR points to the running back position, and the Colts are one of them, as they've allowed just 174.1 PPR points through their nine games (19.6 per game). This is not great for a timeshare. If there's a glimmer of hope, it's that they've allowed 1.75 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Jones should be played, but lower expectations into the low-end RB1 range. Williams is more of an unappealing RB4 for this game who has a limited ceiling against a team who's faced just 25.4 running back touches per game, which might leave him 7-10 touches in a tough matchup.

Mike Tagliere - FantasyPros - 40 minutes ago
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2 minutes ago, jagsfan05 said:

EXPERT NOTE

Just as we suspected, the Packers went to more of a timeshare with both of these backs healthy. Jones finished with 19 opportunities while Williams had 12 of them, which isn't ideal for fantasy purposes. Fortunately, Jones is one of the most efficient running backs in football. The downside is that they're going from a matchup with the league's third-best matchup for running backs to the one that's the second-toughest for running backs. On average, running backs score 5.3 fewer fantasy points than their league average against the Colts. The only running back who's totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against Matt Eberflus' defense in his two and a half years there is Derrick Henry. We're talking a 41-game sample size, so this run defense is no joke. If you look at fantasy points allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Colts have allowed 59.9 PPR points per game to all of them combined, which is the lowest number in the NFL. By comparison, the Seahawks have allowed 57.2 PPR points per game to wide receivers alone. There have been just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 188.8 PPR points to the running back position, and the Colts are one of them, as they've allowed just 174.1 PPR points through their nine games (19.6 per game). This is not great for a timeshare. If there's a glimmer of hope, it's that they've allowed 1.75 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Jones should be played, but lower expectations into the low-end RB1 range. Williams is more of an unappealing RB4 for this game who has a limited ceiling against a team who's faced just 25.4 running back touches per game, which might leave him 7-10 touches in a tough matchup.

Mike Tagliere - FantasyPros - 40 minutes ago

Good numbers in that write up. Still starting Jones everywhere though, haha. 

15 carries for 65 yards, 5 receptions for 40 yards and a TD. Still a solid RB1. 

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26 minutes ago, jagsfan05 said:

EXPERT NOTE

Just as we suspected, the Packers went to more of a timeshare with both of these backs healthy. Jones finished with 19 opportunities while Williams had 12 of them, which isn't ideal for fantasy purposes. Fortunately, Jones is one of the most efficient running backs in football. The downside is that they're going from a matchup with the league's third-best matchup for running backs to the one that's the second-toughest for running backs. On average, running backs score 5.3 fewer fantasy points than their league average against the Colts. The only running back who's totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against Matt Eberflus' defense in his two and a half years there is Derrick Henry. We're talking a 41-game sample size, so this run defense is no joke. If you look at fantasy points allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Colts have allowed 59.9 PPR points per game to all of them combined, which is the lowest number in the NFL. By comparison, the Seahawks have allowed 57.2 PPR points per game to wide receivers alone. There have been just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 188.8 PPR points to the running back position, and the Colts are one of them, as they've allowed just 174.1 PPR points through their nine games (19.6 per game). This is not great for a timeshare. If there's a glimmer of hope, it's that they've allowed 1.75 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Jones should be played, but lower expectations into the low-end RB1 range. Williams is more of an unappealing RB4 for this game who has a limited ceiling against a team who's faced just 25.4 running back touches per game, which might leave him 7-10 touches in a tough matchup.

Mike Tagliere - FantasyPros - 40 minutes ago

Good thing Jones is a better back than Joker Henry. He should be fine. Plenty of work catching, too. 

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1 hour ago, jagsfan05 said:

EXPERT NOTE

Just as we suspected, the Packers went to more of a timeshare with both of these backs healthy. Jones finished with 19 opportunities while Williams had 12 of them, which isn't ideal for fantasy purposes. Fortunately, Jones is one of the most efficient running backs in football. The downside is that they're going from a matchup with the league's third-best matchup for running backs to the one that's the second-toughest for running backs. On average, running backs score 5.3 fewer fantasy points than their league average against the Colts. The only running back who's totaled 100-plus yards on the ground against Matt Eberflus' defense in his two and a half years there is Derrick Henry. We're talking a 41-game sample size, so this run defense is no joke. If you look at fantasy points allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Colts have allowed 59.9 PPR points per game to all of them combined, which is the lowest number in the NFL. By comparison, the Seahawks have allowed 57.2 PPR points per game to wide receivers alone. There have been just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 188.8 PPR points to the running back position, and the Colts are one of them, as they've allowed just 174.1 PPR points through their nine games (19.6 per game). This is not great for a timeshare. If there's a glimmer of hope, it's that they've allowed 1.75 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Jones should be played, but lower expectations into the low-end RB1 range. Williams is more of an unappealing RB4 for this game who has a limited ceiling against a team who's faced just 25.4 running back touches per game, which might leave him 7-10 touches in a tough matchup.

Mike Tagliere - FantasyPros - 40 minutes ago

I'm girding myself for a game of Jones getting run in to the line for his touches while Jamaal Williams gets all swing passes for some damn reason. 

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6 TDs by Packers... none by Jones

Rodgers just takes them all.

 

Yeah very frustrating as a Jones owner. Just have to start him and hope that his easy playoff schedule can maybe reverse the trend. Rodgers just dominates red zone TDs lately. 

Hoping for a cold wintery windy GB December. :)

Edited by fantasymad
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2 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

Imagine if this guy got the ball as mush as Williams..........

 

Like I said before the season started.

Talent < Opportunity

He doesn't get the ball enough.

 

He does the most amount with his opportunity when you categorize the top guys but Rodgers is just on fire, its almost better in the tougher matchups but even still Williams is the REC back. Think we need to limit expectations moving forward even in a great playoff schedule

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Just now, JacobThunder15 said:

He does the most amount with his opportunity when you categorize the top guys but Rodgers is just on fire, its almost better in the tougher matchups but even still Williams is the REC back. Think we need to limit expectations moving forward even in a great playoff schedule

I am hoping week 15 and 16 home games are cold very windy and snowy lol.  

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12 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

Imagine if this guy got the ball as mush as Williams..........

 

Like I said before the season started.

Talent < Opportunity

He doesn't get the ball enough.

 

He has 18 touches today. The problem is Rodgers is the main guy at the goal line this year vs last year when it was Jones.

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2 minutes ago, fantasymad said:

I am hoping week 15 and 16 home games are cold very windy and snowy lol.  

I think we just need positive TD regression.

We have to remember that Rodgers scoring all these TDs and being unstoppable around the red zone is going to make it so defenses have to plan around that in the future,  which should also help keep defenses honest against the run in the future for Jones.

One thing I mentioned in the game thread is that over the past 4 weeks, the Packers offense has scored 16 TDs on offense and Jones only has 1 of them. That's pretty ridiculous... I wouldnt bet on that ratio continuing.

And with how efficient and hard to defend Rodgers has been where it counts, I think we will see positive TD regression for Jones. 

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On a per game basis, his numbers are almost EXACTLY the same as last year. Carries, rush yards, receptions, receiving yards all very close to last year.

The big difference is last year he scored 1.25 TD per game vs 1 per game this year. Even THAT isn't that bad. 

The problem is really his last 4 games. Before he got hurt he basically was last year Aaron Jones. After he got hurt he has regressed tremendously. 

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10 hours ago, yanksman said:

On a per game basis, his numbers are almost EXACTLY the same as last year. Carries, rush yards, receptions, receiving yards all very close to last year.

The big difference is last year he scored 1.25 TD per game vs 1 per game this year. Even THAT isn't that bad. 

The problem is really his last 4 games. Before he got hurt he basically was last year Aaron Jones. After he got hurt he has regressed tremendously. 

 

Spot on. It's funny because at the start of the year (pre-injury) everyone was talking about how fading him in drafts was a terrible mistake because the expected TD regression never happened.

Well, looks like it's happening now. I'm sure in smaller/shallower leagues Jones is some people's RB2, which is honestly fine and a great position to be in. But if for whatever reason you're relying on him to carry your team it's going to be a bumpy ride.

I'm not trying to be alarmist and I think that Jones is going to have success over the playoffs. But a TD-dependent RB that doesn't get high volume is definitely concerning and VERY volatile.

Edited by MingusDew
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1 minute ago, nb009 said:

Aaron Rodgers is obsessed with stats and throws regularly on the 5-yard line. It's mind boggling. That's why I root against teams like the Packers.

 

They pissed him off by drafting Jordan Love in the 1st. Never seen a bigger chip on a guy's shoulder, it's insane.

That said, watching Rodgers make incredible passes to Devante Adams after he's wide open thanks to immaculate route running will never get old.

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5 hours ago, nb009 said:

Aaron Rodgers is obsessed with stats and throws regularly on the 5-yard line. It's mind boggling. That's why I root against teams like the Packers.

I don't understand what you're saying. You hate the Packers because Rodgers throws TDs? Good QB stats usually equal team wins. This isn't basketball and Rodgers isn't Westbrook. 

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6 minutes ago, Drewfus said:

I don't understand what you're saying. You hate the Packers because Rodgers throws TDs? Good QB stats usually equal team wins. This isn't basketball and Rodgers isn't Westbrook. 

well most teams run when they're within the 5 yard line, because it's the mathematical and smart play...not selfish rodgers with 'something to prove'...

 

with that said, i think aaron jones has some kind of injury which the packers are trying to mitigate and that's why jamal williams is getting so much play.

Edited by TroutFister
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