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Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook


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I stopped reading here 

Suddenly lots of love in here. You mean we shouldn't be shying away because his team used a mid round pick (last pick of the second round) on a depth/insurance RB. I thought that was supposed to be th

Some people believe that their "RB1" has to be a "workhorse RB". But the trend of the workhorse RB as it used to be thought of, is getting close to extinct. I've looked up RB trends for Top 12 RB's (i

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6 minutes ago, Drewfus said:

I don't understand what you're saying. You hate the Packers because Rodgers throws TDs? Good QB stats usually equal team wins. This isn't basketball and Rodgers isn't Westbrook.

Eh... I don't have a problem with throwing inside the five, in fact, I'm all for it.  However, the number of times that Rodgers has thrown TDs on first and goal at the one is pretty silly. I'm guessing he's changing the play at the line of scrimmage just to give himself better numbers.

Would be like Westbrook passing up a wide open dunk to hit a spot up shooter because he needs one more assist for a triple double. Sure, it looks good if the guy hits the open jumper, but it's still cringey. 

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Just now, TroutFister said:

i corrected the statement, but even at the 5 yard line, rodgers is actively looking to throw. 

I see nothing wrong with that when you have an elite RZ threat WR and a legendary QB. 

Given that GB is third in the league in RZ TD rate, seems like it's working out just fine. 

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Just now, ajs723 said:

Eh... I don't have a problem with throwing inside the five, in fact, I'm all for it.  However, the number of times that Rodgers has thrown TDs on first and goal at the one is pretty silly. I'm guessing he's changing the play at the line of scrimmage just to give himself better numbers.

Would be like Westbrook passing up a wide open dunk to hit a spot up shooter because he needs one more assist for a triple double. Sure, it looks good if the guy hits the open jumper, but it's still cringey. 

Yeah I can see some validity to complaints about throwing from the 1. But it still seems a bit of a silly gripe. 

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2 minutes ago, Drewfus said:

I see nothing wrong with that when you have an elite RZ threat WR and a legendary QB. 

Given that GB is third in the league in RZ TD rate, seems like it's working out just fine. 

No one is saying it's not working, we're saying it's goofy and, yeah, sort of selfish of Rodgers. When it's first and goal at the one, you can pretty easily slam the ball up the middle for a TD. Yes, you can play action and sneak out a backup TE for a TD pass too, but most teams won't do that because it's inherently riskier and just kind of unnecessary. 

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Someone can double check me on this, but I have 17 of Rodgers 33 TDs coming from inside the 6 yard line. He also has one from the 7 yard line. 

And he has 7, yes seven, TD passes from the 1 yard line (many on early downs). And another TD pass from the 2 yard line.

If that's not stat padding, I don't know what is. 

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17 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Someone can double check me on this, but I have 17 of Rodgers 33 TDs coming from inside the 6 yard line. He also has one from the 7 yard line. 

And he has 7, yes seven, TD passes from the 1 yard line (many on early downs). And another TD pass from the 2 yard line.

If that's not stat padding, I don't know what is. 

 

Well he's also a HOF QB and GB looks like the best team in the NFC lol. I know it sucks from a fantasy perspective (unless you're a Rodgers manager), but it sure seems to work from a winning the game perspective.

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25 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

 

Well he's also a HOF QB and GB looks like the best team in the NFC lol. I know it sucks from a fantasy perspective (unless you're a Rodgers manager), but it sure seems to work from a winning the game perspective.

Right, but play action passes to Marcedes Lewis, Jace Sternberger, and Allen Lazard on first and goal from the one aren't exactly hall of fame caliber plays. It's just a cheesey way to inflate stats. Jones could, and probably should, have 5 or 6 more TD runs this season. 

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from what I can find (not sure if this includes yesterday's game), from the 5 or closer, here are the number of pass/run attempts and success rate on goal to go situations:

From the 1 - 10 passes (60% TD) and 7 runs (43 % TD)

From the 2 - 0 passes and 3 runs (100%)

3 - 5 passes (40%) and 4 runs (75%)

4- 2 passes (100%) and 0 runs

5 - 4 passes (75%) and 3 runs (100%)

Looks like 14 td passes on 21 attempts and 12 td runs on 17 attempts inside the 5....the pass percentage is high, but utilizing both probably makes the overall result more successful, which shows why their kicker has only attempted 2 kicks inside of 30 yards (only Sea and Phil have equal or less attempts)

Any complaint about Rodgers throwing too much inside the 5 just reflects a fantasy owner not getting the points they want....

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On 9/8/2020 at 10:53 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

His catches/performances benefitted from adams/williams being out. Adams is back.

He is touch down dependent and they got aj dillion.

He isnt a bellcow but your drafting him like one.

He splits ALOT/snaps/starts/carries with Williams, now they also have dillon.

They are going to throw more based on GB history/schedule will force it.

Told you so.

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1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Told you so.

oh man. thanks for this. you really added a lot to the conversation. I personally love it when guys say a player is going to not be good, disappear for the part of the year where the player IS actually very good, then come back to say "I told you so" when said player has a dip in production. Good stuff right there. 

On 11/30/2020 at 4:49 PM, Loadedbrewer said:

from what I can find (not sure if this includes yesterday's game), from the 5 or closer, here are the number of pass/run attempts and success rate on goal to go situations:

From the 1 - 10 passes (60% TD) and 7 runs (43 % TD)

From the 2 - 0 passes and 3 runs (100%)

3 - 5 passes (40%) and 4 runs (75%)

4- 2 passes (100%) and 0 runs

5 - 4 passes (75%) and 3 runs (100%)

Looks like 14 td passes on 21 attempts and 12 td runs on 17 attempts inside the 5....the pass percentage is high, but utilizing both probably makes the overall result more successful, which shows why their kicker has only attempted 2 kicks inside of 30 yards (only Sea and Phil have equal or less attempts)

Any complaint about Rodgers throwing too much inside the 5 just reflects a fantasy owner not getting the points they want....

this is a really great and helpful breakdown here. I bolded that one statement because I think it's an extra good point. Give their run/pass splits they're very unpredictable in that part of the field which makes life even harder on opposing defenses. Personally I HATE how Jones has been splitting time with Williams but, as has been mentioned above, it's hard to argue with the results. They're scoring a ton of points and winning. I think at some point they will lose a game and there's going to be a bunch of "wait...why did Williams have as money touches as Jones while you guys were in the process of losing" talk. 

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29 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Told you so?

2019: 18.3 FPG

2020: 17 FPG

He has a small dropoff and was available in the late 2nd round this year.

He had a 55 point game that total makes ppg unreliable in his case. Hes is struggling because for the exact reasons I said in September and I got hammered by this thread.

 

His catches/performances benefitted from adams/williams being out. Adams is back. 

He is touch down dependent and they got aj dillion. 

He isnt a bellcow but your drafting him like one. 

He splits ALOT/snaps/starts/carries with Williams, now they also have dillon. 

They are going to throw more based on GB history/schedule will force it. 

 

 

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Just now, nmartinez12443 said:

He had a 55 point game that total makes ppg unreliable in his case. Hes is struggling because for the reasons someone said in September and got hammered by this thread.

 

His catches/performances benefitted from adams/williams being out. Adams is back. 

He is touch down dependent and they got aj dillion. 

He isnt a bellcow but your drafting him like one. 

He splits ALOT/snaps/starts/carries with Williams, now they also have dillon. 

They are going to throw more based on GB history/schedule will force it. 

 

 

He was awesome before he got hurt. Lackluster since. So recency bias says I told you so but overall results say hes the same player as last year.

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2 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Told you so.

This is the single worst attempt at a gloat I've ever seen. You were wrong about all of your predictions and Jones is an every week top 5 RB. 

 

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1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

He had a 55 point game that total makes ppg unreliable in his case. Hes is struggling because for the exact reasons I said in September and I got hammered by this thread.

 

His catches/performances benefitted from adams/williams being out. Adams is back. 

He is touch down dependent and they got aj dillion. 

He isnt a bellcow but your drafting him like one. 

He splits ALOT/snaps/starts/carries with Williams, now they also have dillon. 

They are going to throw more based on GB history/schedule will force it. 

 

 

 

Why do you keep talking about Dillon? He has 23 carries for 97 yards, 1 catch for 16 yards and 0 TDs and hasn't had a touch since 11/1. 

Going to assume the rest of your post is equally as dumb. 

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This guy is game script proof. 

 

Red zone - doesn't get the ball

Goal lie -  doesn't get the ball

Big lead - not on the field

Way behind - not on the field

Every other series - not on the field

 

He's guaranteed to never get the ball or not even be on the field. If he scores a 70 yard TD on the first drive...he's money in the bank

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