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Aaron Jones 2020 Outlook


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I stopped reading here 

Suddenly lots of love in here. You mean we shouldn't be shying away because his team used a mid round pick (last pick of the second round) on a depth/insurance RB. I thought that was supposed to be th

Some people believe that their "RB1" has to be a "workhorse RB". But the trend of the workhorse RB as it used to be thought of, is getting close to extinct. I've looked up RB trends for Top 12 RB's (i

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On 4/26/2020 at 2:45 PM, ajs723 said:

Top 6-8 running back with upside to single-handedly win your matchup any given week.

Or sink your week like in Weeks 1, 6, 9, 12, 13.

He was an RB1 7 times

He was an RB2 4 times (if we count week 17)

He was an RB3 or worse 5 times

I agree his "booms" were very boomy, but his lows were awful.  I guess it depends what you want out of your RB1.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Or sink your week like in Weeks 1, 6, 9, 12, 13.

He was an RB1 7 times

He was an RB2 4 times (if we count week 17)

He was an RB3 or worse 5 times

I agree his "booms" were very boomy, but his lows were awful.  I guess it depends what you want out of your RB1.  

 

Cool Story Bro incoming, bro:

 

I traded him for this very reason, and instantly regretted it for this very reason.

 

Then my trade partner benched him against me in the ‘ship for this very reason.

 

Point is...too iffy to trust, too much upside to bench...

 

And I bet this doesn’t change at all.


TD regression is likely, but not as much as many think. Dude has a real nose for the end zone and I think that’s a real, maybe even reliable aspect of his skill set

 

 

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Just now, Proteus said:

Cool Story Bro incoming, bro:

 

I traded him for this very reason, and instantly regretted it for this very reason.

 

Then my trade partner benched him against me in the ‘ship for this very reason.

 

Point is...too iffy to trust, too much upside to bench...

 

And I bet this doesn’t change at all.


TD regression is likely, but not as much as many think. Dude has a real nose for the end zone and I think that’s a real, maybe even reliable aspect of his skill set

 

 

I think you just inspired me to take him and Evans on a team together as an experiment.

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12 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Or sink your week like in Weeks 1, 6, 9, 12, 13.

He was an RB1 7 times

He was an RB2 4 times (if we count week 17)

He was an RB3 or worse 5 times

I agree his "booms" were very boomy, but his lows were awful.  I guess it depends what you want out of your RB1.  

 

These are all of the RB's AND WR's who had more RB1/RB2 or WR1/WR2 weeks than Jones in 2019...
image.png.4ea690950a4fb7ddc3298beeddb95f00.png
That's the whole list. 6 players. 5 RB's and 1 WR.

How many players tied Jones?
image.png.ff51aabe9e558931173a1587c5bd26ea.png
So 2 players tied Jones. Meaning 8 total RB's and WR's in the NFL had as many or more RB1/RB2, or WR1/WR2 weeks, as Jones did.

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17 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I think you just inspired me to take him and Evans on a team together as an experiment.

I actually think Tom Turkey is going to hit Evans downfield more than many seem to think

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Just now, Proteus said:

I actually think Tom Turkey is going to hit Evans downfield more than many seem to think

It's amazing how much downfield accuracy can be improved when you have a guy who can make catches downfield.

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16 hours ago, Corleone said:

These are all of the RB's AND WR's who had more RB1/RB2 or WR1/WR2 weeks than Jones in 2019...
image.png.4ea690950a4fb7ddc3298beeddb95f00.png
That's the whole list. 6 players. 5 RB's and 1 WR.

How many players tied Jones?
image.png.ff51aabe9e558931173a1587c5bd26ea.png
So 2 players tied Jones. Meaning 8 total RB's and WR's in the NFL had as many or more RB1/RB2, or WR1/WR2 weeks, as Jones did.

Good stuff - are you able to run the date for RB3/WR3 or worse finishes?  Jones had 5 of those weeks.  Also I guess the point I was making was more-so when Jones is bad, it seemed REALLY bad.

Week 1 - RB52

Week 6 - RB36

Week 9 - RB45

Week 12 - RB44

Week 13 - RB45

So in 5 games last year, he was essentially an RB4 or RB5.  So not only was he outside the top 24, but he was outside the top 36, except Week 6 right on the nose.  

Take a guy like Derrick Henry (who isn't on the list for some reason?) who had 9 RB1 games, 3 RB2 games, and 3 RB3 or worse games.  Henry seemed just as "boomy" too finishing in the top 3 at the position 4 times throughout the season.

Even a guy like Ingram, 10 RB1/RB2 weeks, only 4 RB3 or worse games, but his "lows" were in the 30-35 range.    

Plus if you compare the ADP of these guys, Fournette, Henry, Jones, Cook, Gordon, Carson all seem to be close right now.  Fournette, Cook, and Carson are all on your list from above, and I think Henry should be too.  I'm not a big Melvin fan, so if we're looking at Fournette, Henry, Jones, Cook, and Carson on the board, who would you pick?

According to the data, these guys were RB1/RB2 just as many times or more as Jones, but seemed more consistent.  In a draft today, I'm taking Cook, Henry and Carson (assuming healthy to start the season) easily over Jones, plus the obvious names like CMC, Barkley, Zeke, Kamara.  Other guys I would take over Jones include Chubb, Jacobs, Bell and Sanders.  Fournette is a toss-up - would probably lean Jones because of the offense.

So for me, Jones would be RB11 on my board - so still an RB1, but on the lower end with multiple guys head of him.

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2 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Good stuff - are you able to run the date for RB3/WR3 or worse finishes?  Jones had 5 of those weeks.  Also I guess the point I was making was more-so when Jones is bad, it seemed REALLY bad.

Week 1 - RB52

Week 6 - RB36

Week 9 - RB45

Week 12 - RB44

Week 13 - RB45

So in 5 games last year, he was essentially an RB4 or RB5.  So not only was he outside the top 24, but he was outside the top 36, except Week 6 right on the nose.  

Take a guy like Derrick Henry (who isn't on the list for some reason?) who had 9 RB1 games, 3 RB2 games, and 3 RB3 or worse games.  Henry seemed just as "boomy" too finishing in the top 3 at the position 4 times throughout the season.

Even a guy like Ingram, 10 RB1/RB2 weeks, only 4 RB3 or worse games, but his "lows" were in the 30-35 range.    

Plus if you compare the ADP of these guys, Fournette, Henry, Jones, Cook, Gordon, Carson all seem to be close right now.  Fournette, Cook, and Carson are all on your list from above, and I think Henry should be too.  I'm not a big Melvin fan, so if we're looking at Fournette, Henry, Jones, Cook, and Carson on the board, who would you pick?

According to the data, these guys were RB1/RB2 just as many times or more as Jones, but seemed more consistent.  In a draft today, I'm taking Cook, Henry and Carson (assuming healthy to start the season) easily over Jones, plus the obvious names like CMC, Barkley, Zeke, Kamara.  Other guys I would take over Jones include Chubb, Jacobs, Bell and Sanders.  Fournette is a toss-up - would probably lean Jones because of the offense.

So for me, Jones would be RB11 on my board - so still an RB1, but on the lower end with multiple guys head of him.

Thanks. I have Jones at one RB3 finish, as that's the Week 6 game you mention, where he ended up right at #36 in your numbers (#33 in mine). Here's additional info in regards to weekly finishes from a couple months ago:

On 2/19/2020 at 3:24 PM, Corleone said:

That's the point though. Take a RB that is projected to go in the 2020 first round and who is "more consistent" than Jones. And let's see how your team would have fared with that RB instead of Jones. You are holding the busts from Jones against him, but don't seem to give him enough credit for his big games. 

At the end of the day, some of it just comes down to preference I suppose. Let's compare Jones to Fournette, by seeing their weekly ranks amongst other RB's in PPR (and I'm not saying you personally are proposing Fournette over Jones).

image.png.f7dd053372a17fb720b725795c1cb7e5.png

The games in green are RB1 weeks. They both had 7.
The games in yellow are RB2 weeks. They both had 4.
The games in orange are RB3 weeks. Fournette wins 3 games to 1.
The games in red are bust weeks. Jones loses 4 games to 1.

So they both had 11 weeks in which they had an RB1 or RB2 week. And Fournette didn't have as many bust weeks. So one could say that Fournette was more consistent in that sense. But for me, the difference in productivity from the RB1/RB2 games is glaring. And while Fournette was better in his RB3/Bust games, RB3 games aren't getting you wins on a weekly basis. That's part of why amongst fantasy RB's in 2019, Jones had the 4th highest winning percentage, while Fournette was 12th.

Edited by Corleone
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On 4/29/2020 at 4:02 PM, Fort4242 said:

Or sink your week like in Weeks 1, 6, 9, 12, 13.

He was an RB1 7 times

He was an RB2 4 times (if we count week 17)

He was an RB3 or worse 5 times

I agree his "booms" were very boomy, but his lows were awful.  I guess it depends what you want out of your RB1.  

 

it's 2020, not 2005. in the "not CMC" tier those are Grade A- RB 1 numbers for today's NFL. Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander are not walking through that door. He's not CMC or Barkley or that tier of RB but after those guys he's pretty great. Of course, I'm not at all happy the dumb-a** Packers drafted another RB in the 2nd round but...who the hell knows what they're doing.

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7 hours ago, yossarian said:

iOf course, I'm not at all happy the dumb-a** Packers drafted another RB in the 2nd round but...who the hell knows what they're doing.

I'm in the camp that believes he was drafted so they won't have to spend to extend Jones after this season, his show for one more year.

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On 5/1/2020 at 5:55 AM, Mr.Joshua said:

I'm in the camp that believes he was drafted so they won't have to spend to extend Jones after this season, his show for one more year.

that....actually makes a lot of sense. i guess they plan on transitioning to the rook and letting him walk and get his big contract from somebody else?

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4 minutes ago, yossarian said:

that....actually makes a lot of sense. i guess they plan on transitioning to the rook and letting him walk and get his big contract from somebody else?

possible-  if the rook can be the feature back.   Big IF 

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On 5/2/2020 at 5:57 PM, Impreza178 said:

possible-  if the rook can be the feature back.   Big IF 

maybe they run jones in to the ground this season since they're going to let him go?

 

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It could be they like Jones and plan to keep him, but don’t think he’ll hold up under a heavy workload long term. So rather than run him into the ground they drafted Dillon to be the Thunder to Jones lightning in a committee. 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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24 minutes ago, yossarian said:

maybe they run jones in to the ground this season since they're going to let him go?

 

 

5 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

It could be they like Jones and plan to keep him, but don’t think he’ll hold up under a heavy workload long term. So rather than run him into the ground they drafted Dillon to be the Thunder to Jones lightning in a committee. 


Both of these scenarios are entirely possible.   He’s the leader in touches by a fair amount in 2020-  then it’s all up in the air.   I’m betting Jones’ talent wins out in the end. 

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On 5/3/2020 at 6:42 PM, yossarian said:

maybe they run jones in to the ground this season since they're going to let him go?

 

Is it totally out of the question that they would re-sign Jones?

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1 hour ago, Proteus said:

Is it totally out of the question that they would re-sign Jones?

Not at all - LaFleur prefers a committee.

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15 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Not at all - LaFleur prefers a committee.

It's really just that simple. 

And regardless of what Jones owners think, Williams is not a bad RB.  He does the same things as Jones but just not as good.

And LeFleur probably understands that the difference between the two isn't so great that it's costing them regular season games by having a 60/40 split.  

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On 8/14/2020 at 4:25 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

Overdrafted and will be a bust avoid.

I don't know about that.  Jones finished out last season strong with some big games and he also had a couple of big games catching the ball.  In PPR, he should still be a high end rb2 at the least.

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On 8/14/2020 at 4:49 PM, TeeGee60 said:

Practically silent on here about this guy, as I agree his td regression will go down, I think they use more two rb sets this year and run the ball more this year.


What would people set as the o/u on his TDs this year (he had 19 last year)...12.5?

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:


What would people set as the o/u on his TDs this year (he had 19 last year)...12.5?

 

haven't found TDs yet, but the book sets a slight regression in rushing yds ... he had 1,084 last year -  book has him at o/u 950.5

-120 either way. 

 

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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