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Adalberto Mondesi 2020 Outlook


Flyman75
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5 hours ago, AJdude said:

I hear you but if he's a new age stat geek (is it Matheny?) then don't those lean toward not stealing bases?  Just trying to lay out scenarios, not necessarily arguing this will occur.

What's important to stat geeks is success rate. Getting caught stealing hurts a lot more than getting a free base helps, and the math works out to where you need to be successful about 70% of the time for it to be worthwhile.

Mondesi was 43 for 50 last year, 86%. In 2018 it was 82%. The numbers say let him run.

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I like my team when I get two solid safe obp guys like Soto Freeman, bellinger devers etc and Mondesi in the 3rd. Start the draft with 70 hrs, 50 steals, and a very competitive obp/avg. If I get 120 games the pick should still be worth it, with SS being so deep it's easy to grab a guy like Polanco or didi to fill in those 20-30 games he's projected to miss. And there's always chance he manages to stay healthy and a 15/60 season Will win your league. I'm all in on Mondesi this year 

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I'm keeping him (at no cost) going into this season. But for those of you mulling Mondesi, heres some things that keep me up at night (not literally) with relying on him:

29.8% K rate (bad)

4.3% BB (bad)

25.5 K-BB% (near league worst)

.715 OPS and a 9.3% HR/FB rate = slapdick 

Swings a lot outside of the zone but his o-contact% was below average last year. 

21% swinging strike rate was about the worst in the league last year. 

Edited by 2ndCitySox
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2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I'm keeping him (at no cost) going into this season. But for those of you mulling Mondesi, heres some things that keep me up at night (not literally) with relying on him:

29.8% K rate (bad)

4.3% BB (bad)

25.5 K-BB% (near league worst)

.715 OPS and a 9.3% HR/FB rate = slapdick 

Swings a lot outside of the zone but his o-contact% was below average last year. 

21% swinging strike rate was about the worst in the league last year. 

 

You mean that's a Billy Hamilton clone?

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13 minutes ago, exm said:

 

You mean that's a Billy Hamilton clone?

let me know when b ham ever sniffed this stat line....177 games played, 690 at-bats.  23 home runs, 99 RBI, 105 runs, 89 steals.

for reference. b ham has a career 21 hrs, 176 rbi, 242 avg 809 games.

Edited by colepenhagen
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1 minute ago, colepenhagen said:

let me know when b ham ever sniffed this stat line....177 games played, 690 at-bats.  23 home runs, 99 RBI, 105 runs, 89 steals.

for reference. b ham has a career 21 hrs, 176 rbi, 242 avg 809 games.

 

I'm a big believer of Mondesi, don't get me wrong. Just trying to compare with the other poster's point.

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30 minutes ago, exm said:

 

I'm a big believer of Mondesi, don't get me wrong. Just trying to compare with the other poster's point.

My point was to highlight some of the red flags. I didnt call him Billy Hamilton. 

I understand the upside too. 

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This guy is 24 years old and played well underaged at every minor level. He saw his first MLB action at age 20. Sure his K/BB %s are alarming, but not every one can have Juan Soto plate discipline. Given Mondesi's age and development path I would expect some refinement of his plate skills. He's still learning on the fly.

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22 hours ago, jay2491 said:

I like my team when I get two solid safe obp guys like Soto Freeman, bellinger devers etc and Mondesi in the 3rd. Start the draft with 70 hrs, 50 steals, and a very competitive obp/avg. If I get 120 games the pick should still be worth it, with SS being so deep it's easy to grab a guy like Polanco or didi to fill in those 20-30 games he's projected to miss. And there's always chance he manages to stay healthy and a 15/60 season Will win your league. I'm all in on Mondesi this year 

The issue is opportunity cost with that early pick you are using to get Mondesi. You need him bring some HR/RBI value, even if the primary point is SBs

Otherwise, you can get steal only guys later.

The shoulder, not the poor PD. Is what is scaring me off right now. Cannot trust he's going to get much of his power into games this year. IMO

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16 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

let me know when b ham ever sniffed this stat line....177 games played, 690 at-bats.  23 home runs, 99 RBI, 105 runs, 89 steals.

for reference. b ham has a career 21 hrs, 176 rbi, 242 avg 809 games.

 

Granted Hamilton was a bad comparison, but the reality is Mondesi has some serious holes in his game and his power also regressed considerably last season. At this point we don't know if he's a 10-15 HR guy or a 20-25 HR guy. He's also coming back from a pretty serious injury, is developing a bit of an injury track record and now has a manager who has consistently de-emphasized SBs throughout his career. At this point you'd probably be foolish to draft him over a player like Jonathan Villar in non-keeper leagues. Plus Villar gives you multi position eligibility (2B, SS, soon to be OF, etc.). 

Edited by jmcampbe11
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34 minutes ago, pan55 said:

This guy is 24 years old and played well underaged at every minor level. He saw his first MLB action at age 20. Sure his K/BB %s are alarming, but not every one can have Juan Soto plate discipline. Given Mondesi's age and development path I would expect some refinement of his plate skills. He's still learning on the fly.

 

Pretty bad comparison. No one's saying he has to be Soto, but he's going to have to at least get to slightly below league average to make his stats somewhat sustainable. Otherwise you're going to have wild fluctuations in his stats from one year to the next and I'm not sure that's going to be worth the headache/risk. 

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38 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Granted Hamilton was a bad comparison, but the reality is Mondesi has some serious holes in his game and his power also regressed considerably last season. At this point we don't know if he's a 10-15 HR guy or a 20-25 HR guy. He's also coming back from a pretty serious injury, is developing a bit of an injury track record and now has a manager who has consistently de-emphasized SBs throughout his career. At this point you'd probably be foolish to draft him over a player like Jonathan Villar in non-keeper leagues. Plus Villar gives you multi position eligibility (2B, SS, soon to be OF, etc.). 

I think the Matheny fear is overblown particularly because 1) He never had elite SB guys in STL and 2) Soler aside not much power in this lineup.

Villar has way more risk imo. Learning a new position (if not coming back to IF poor play = less PAs). And park still a huge downgrade. Mondesi is a way better guy to take a shot on.

Injury concern is legit for sure though but the price has that baked in already.

 

Edited by Magoo
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1 minute ago, Magoo said:

I think the Matheny fear is overblown particularly because 1) He never had elite SB guys in STL and 2) Soler aside not much power in this lineup.

Villar has way more risk imo. Learning a new position (if not coming back to IF poor play = less PAs). And park still a huge downgrade. Mondesi is a way better guy to take a shot on.

Injury concern is legit for sure though but the price has that baked in already.

 

 

He's really not. That team is terrible and Villar will play everywhere. So even if the OF doesn't work out for him they'll find a way to get his bat in the lineup. And he's always been an accumulator. If he gets 600+ ABs he's going to be a 25 / 35 guy. He might not be the sexy pick, but he's a much safer pick than Mondesi. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Apparently Gregory Polanco and Michael Brantley had the same surgery and went on to have ineffective seasons afterwards according to the latest CBS Sports blurb on Mondesi.  Also, it looks ominous that he will be ready for Opening Day at this point.  
 

I had him going at the end of the 3rd round, but I think he’d have to slip to the late 5th for me to feel good about taking him this year.

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6 hours ago, 6Kill said:

Apparently Gregory Polanco and Michael Brantley had the same surgery and went on to have ineffective seasons afterwards according to the latest CBS Sports blurb on Mondesi.  Also, it looks ominous that he will be ready for Opening Day at this point.  
 

I had him going at the end of the 3rd round, but I think he’d have to slip to the late 5th for me to feel good about taking him this year.

 

According to his surgeon, he's right on schedule. So even if he isn't ready for the beginning of the season, he won't be far behind. As far as his effectiveness, he was never a high BA guy nor a guy you expect power from. The biggest key to Mondesi's game is going to be his SBs. 

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Just now, Flyman75 said:

 

According to his surgeon, he's right on schedule. So even if he isn't ready for the beginning of the season, he won't be far behind. As far as his effectiveness, he was never a high BA guy nor a guy you expect power from. The biggest key to Mondesi's game is going to be his SBs. 

The biggest question for me is will that shoulder hold up while he’s continually diving head-first into 2nd and 3rd base.

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On 2/24/2020 at 7:44 AM, jmcampbe11 said:

 

He's really not. That team is terrible and Villar will play everywhere. So even if the OF doesn't work out for him they'll find a way to get his bat in the lineup. And he's always been an accumulator. If he gets 600+ ABs he's going to be a 25 / 35 guy. He might not be the sexy pick, but he's a much safer pick than Mondesi. 

 

25 is aggressive.  His career high is 24 in Camden. Big park downgrade this year.  I'd pick him to be under 20 before I projected 25+.

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