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Aristides Aquino 2020 Outlook


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[...]  Cincy obviously doesn’t trust this kid or believe in him.  Hope he gets traded so he can develop somewhere else.

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Surprised by this signing as well, more because they already signed the Japanese FA. Perhaps, they did not think he would last this long and at a discounted rate versus what they thought they would have to pay.  There remain a lot of unknowns.  How good is the Japanese guy they signed, do they trade Senzel (now being reported on the trade block per RW). I wonder if they value Aquino ahead of Winker?  Right now, it is all speculative.  Hopefully a trade happens to free-up playing time for him in Cincy, or he is the one that gets dealt.

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6 hours ago, FUM said:

[...]  Cincy obviously doesn’t trust this kid or believe in him.  Hope he gets traded so he can develop somewhere else.


I get this stance but teams rarely trust young players.  Take the Astros last season.

Kyle Tucker was ready and they go out and sign Brantley.

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Obviously the Reds are going for it this season - but even so I think Aquino deserves to be in the lineup most days until he proves otherwise -- unless he is traded.  One of the Fangraphs prospect experts (Kiley or Eric - don't recall which) noted that they think that Aquino's changes last year are for real or mostly for real.  So he may well be a solid 4, 5 or 6 hitter (or lower depending on lineup strength).  Play him, Reds!

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This dude might have the worst peripherals I've ever seen for a player that was productive.

42% OSwing, 19% swinging strikes, 20% IFFB.

Horrendous.

His production relied on a 45% FB rate and 30% HR/FB.

There's zero chance he sustains production with that profile. He needs major strides to produce this year.

I wouldn't touch him with a 10 ft pole.

 

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3 hours ago, EWV1 said:

Obviously the Reds are going for it this season - but even so I think Aquino deserves to be in the lineup most days until he proves otherwise -- unless he is traded.  One of the Fangraphs prospect experts (Kiley or Eric - don't recall which) noted that they think that Aquino's changes last year are for real or mostly for real.  So he may well be a solid 4, 5 or 6 hitter (or lower depending on lineup strength).  Play him, Reds!

Didn't he already prove that whenhe couldn't hit for dick in September?

They signed Castellanos because they are not counting on him playing IMO.

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4 hours ago, EWV1 said:

Obviously the Reds are going for it this season - but even so I think Aquino deserves to be in the lineup most days until he proves otherwise -- unless he is traded.  One of the Fangraphs prospect experts (Kiley or Eric - don't recall which) noted that they think that Aquino's changes last year are for real or mostly for real.  So he may well be a solid 4, 5 or 6 hitter (or lower depending on lineup strength).  Play him, Reds!


I read that on fangraphs too. I took that to mean he’s a major league hitter but maybe not a really good one . He might be a solid 4-5-6 hitter like you said. Castellanos already is a good four hitter. Maybe the fact that they think the DH next year helps this situation , but  I think Castellanos is a much better hitter than Aquino, and you win with good hitters not guys who might be. Also as Stevie said , he got destroyed in September. In OBP leagues he also takes a pretty big hit.  I also think Winker is a better hitter than him too . Chances are someone gets hurt and Aquino still ends up with a lot of PAs but I wouldn’t be counting on him to be a stud. 

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56 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:


I read that on fangraphs too. I took that to mean he’s a major league hitter but maybe not a really good one . He might be a solid 4-5-6 hitter like you said. Castellanos already is a good four hitter. Maybe the fact that they think the DH next year helps this situation , but  I think Castellanos is a much better hitter than Aquino, and you win with good hitters not guys who might be. Also as Stevie said , he got destroyed in September. In OBP leagues he also takes a pretty big hit.  I also think Winker is a better hitter than him too . Chances are someone gets hurt and Aquino still ends up with a lot of PAs but I wouldn’t be counting on him to be a stud. 

I came here to say same thing.  I think there’s forward thinking here.  I’m not buying Aquino in 2020.  But I don’t think his prospects beyond are clouded.  In dynasty there could be a good buy opportunity if you believe in his skills.

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It was an up and down year for Aquino and we will see if he makes it as a major league full-time player - but I am not so sure that Castellanos is that great either...relatively speaking. Look at his splits vs RHP. Other than 2016, NC’s line vs righties is no better than AA’s (limited sample of course) was in 2019. NC seems like more of a leftie masher than a complete hitter - but maybe he is on the rise ... and GABP will help.

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6 hours ago, EWV1 said:

It was an up and down year for Aquino and we will see if he makes it as a major league full-time player - but I am not so sure that Castellanos is that great either...relatively speaking. Look at his splits vs RHP. Other than 2016, NC’s line vs righties is no better than AA’s (limited sample of course) was in 2019. NC seems like more of a leftie masher than a complete hitter - but maybe he is on the rise ... and GABP will help.

.376, .328, .344, .335 wOBA vs RHP last 4 years. That seems like a complete hitter to me

Aquino repeating IS the question mark here. He was on pace to hit over 50 HRs with that .360 wOBA. Statcast had his xwOBA as .334 for 2019 for what it's worth.

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He certainly can't be counted on as a starting OF at this point. As StevieStats pointed out, the metrics will make extrapolating his numbers from last year almost as impossible as his playing time will. I was happy CBS put an absurd projection on him and gladly cashed in my dynasty share. I prob would have held, hoping he is some sort of outlier (the exit velo was very shiny)  but the PT logjam will be difficult to overcome without some trade maneuvering by the Redlegs.

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I don’t think this guy is very good, but there’s a chance that 1.  Senzel won’t be ready for opening day and 2.  Castellanos or Aquino spells votto at 1b some days.  Nori Aoki is locked in at center but Aquino may get enough AB to be rosterable in deeper leagues.

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57 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

I don’t think this guy is very good, but there’s a chance that 1.  Senzel won’t be ready for opening day and 2.  Castellanos or Aquino spells votto at 1b some days.  Nori Aoki is locked in at center but Aquino may get enough AB to be rosterable in deeper leagues.

Aoki? I assume you're talking about Akiyama...

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17 hours ago, EWV1 said:

Obviously the Reds are going for it this season - but even so I think Aquino deserves to be in the lineup most days until he proves otherwise -- unless he is traded.  One of the Fangraphs prospect experts (Kiley or Eric - don't recall which) noted that they think that Aquino's changes last year are for real or mostly for real.  So he may well be a solid 4, 5 or 6 hitter (or lower depending on lineup strength).  Play him, Reds!

Honestly, he kinda already did prove otherwise. He was absolutely dreadful to end the year. It's not like his profile screamed he was underperforming, either. 

@StevieStats said it best. 

14 hours ago, StevieStats said:

This dude might have the worst peripherals I've ever seen for a player that was productive.

42% OSwing, 19% swinging strikes, 20% IFFB.

Horrendous.

His production relied on a 45% FB rate and 30% HR/FB.

There's zero chance he sustains production with that profile. He needs major strides to produce this year.

I wouldn't touch him with a 10 ft pole.

 

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14 hours ago, StevieStats said:

This dude might have the worst peripherals I've ever seen for a player that was productive.

42% OSwing, 19% swinging strikes, 20% IFFB.

Horrendous.

His production relied on a 45% FB rate and 30% HR/FB.

There's zero chance he sustains production with that profile. He needs major strides to produce this year.

I wouldn't touch him with a 10 ft pole.

 

 

And 20.3% slow fastball swinging strike rate, and 30.4% changeup swinging strike rate, both of which are Jeff Zimmerman negative influences on projections. 

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/projection-busting-research-updated/

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
18 hours ago, Jub Jub said:

Is Aquino likely to start the season in the minors?

Possibly because of service time stuff...but kid can rake and run....and his ADP will go down so u can nab him later ... lotta mouths in that OF....ill draft Shogo before him now...but id love to nab Aquino...still if he breaks camp with the club then get him...

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  • 4 months later...

Don't mind me.  I'm here to just hand L's to people who didn't sell high on him in keeper/dynasty leagues during Aquino-mania last year. He's undraftable in standard leagues right now and I remember some leagues who drafted early or mocked towards the end of last season had him in the 75-150 range.

 

Thank you for your time.

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5 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I picked him off on waivers for nothing.  What’s the risk?

 

There was no risk, but the sell high dynasty window seems to be shut closed. He's not projected to even make the team.  

 

I saw some crazy deals discussed for Aquino last year. 

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