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Keenan Allen 2020 Outlook


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Overreaction of the day, much? He's the WR6 in 0.5 PPR. He hasn't missed a game all year. And the game he's been pulled early he already scored a TD (vs. NO and vs. ATL), so he didn't really burn

I’m still waiting for the ending...who is Nuff and what did he say?

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haha, this didnt age well

Chargers have moved on from Rivers

Fox Sports' Jay Glazer reports the Chargers have "moved on from Philip Rivers."

The news isn't exactly shocking, as there's been buzz from numerous reporters about Rivers taking his talents elsewhere in 2020. The father of nine also recently moved to Florida, which matches rumors of a potential landing spot in Tampa Bay. It remains to be seen how many franchises will be lining up to land the 38-year-old QB, as Rivers turned the ball over on far too many occasions in 2019 and doesn't seem to have the same arm talent these days to consistently threaten opposing defenses down the field.

 

Anthony Lynn since day one has wanted a mobile QB, Chargers will likely go with Taylor and draft Herbert, or maybe go after someone like Taysom

 

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1 hour ago, hockeyfan77 said:

This really doesn't help Allen's Value! 

It actually helps his value imo. I don’t like him as an early 2 in ppr. But he will have more value in the 3rd where he should drop to. Taylor is a professional qb and Allen will get his

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Somewhat he intrigues me now that Rivers is out the door. It is somewhat connected what happens with Hunter Henry who is thearetically a Free Agent. If they draft a young QB at pick 6 (or even trade up) or stay with Taylor, are there many more safe targets you want in the league as Keenan Allen?

 

He will dip in value and I will be all over it.

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Are we just forgetting about former first-round pick Mike Williams?  If Allen is being drafted early second, I’m steering way clear of that.  Rivers and Allen had a rapport the likes of which I would only liken to Brady and Edelman.

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34 minutes ago, devaster said:

Tyrod is a QB that doesn't take risks and won't throw into tight windows. I don't like Allen's prospects next season with Tyrod at QB.

Allen is one of the best route runners in the league he can get separation with the best of them

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Plus we know Anthony Lynn loves to run the ball.  If Tyrod is the full time starter next year, I imagine they will incorporate a bunch of zone read and option type plays.  Similar to Baltimore but not to the same extent.  Plus now we have to consider a decent number of pass attempts will turn into scrambles, which Rivers couldn't do.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers averaged around 30 pass attempts per game next year.  At 61% completion, that's only about 18 completions per game.  About 20% of the passing attempts under Lynn have gone to RBs.  You could argue that was because Philip Rivers targets the RB more than others, or maybe it was the offense.  So we're looking at most 15 completions per game to WRs and TEs.  I'll take a shot on the talent of KA if he falls to the 4th-5th round, but right now (yes it's early I know) he's ranked end of the 2nd/early 3rd.

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4 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Plus we know Anthony Lynn loves to run the ball.  If Tyrod is the full time starter next year, I imagine they will incorporate a bunch of zone read and option type plays.  Similar to Baltimore but not to the same extent.  Plus now we have to consider a decent number of pass attempts will turn into scrambles, which Rivers couldn't do.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers averaged around 30 pass attempts per game next year.  At 61% completion, that's only about 18 completions per game.  About 20% of the passing attempts under Lynn have gone to RBs.  You could argue that was because Philip Rivers targets the RB more than others, or maybe it was the offense.  So we're looking at most 15 completions per game to WRs and TEs.  I'll take a shot on the talent of KA if he falls to the 4th-5th round, but right now (yes it's early I know) he's ranked end of the 2nd/early 3rd.

The bolded part is a really good point that people should consider, if Tyrod Taylor is indeed the starter for the Chargers in 2020.

In 2019, Rivers had 12 rush attempts. That was 37th amongst QB's (dead last amongst QB's who started at least 12 games, or 75%).
In 2018, Rivers had 18 rush attempts. That was 37th amongst QB's (second-to-last amongst QB's who started at least 12 games, or 75%).
In 2017, Rivers had 18 rush attempts. That was 32nd amongst QB's (second-to-last amongst QB's who started at least 12 games, or 75%).

In 2017, Taylor's last season as a full-time starter, he had 84 rush attempts. That was 3rd amongst QB's.
Heck, in 2018 & 2019, he barely played and still had almost as many rushes as Rivers (he had 26, to Rivers' 30).

Now if Taylor does start and the Chargers draft a rookie QB, it's possible what happened to Taylor in Cleveland, could happen to him again (he gets benched and the rookie QB begins starting). But even in that scenario, you could potentially have several games of a scrambling QB in Taylor, versus the never-scrambling Rivers.

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Yeah I mean if they sign Brady then I'm all over KA next year.  However I imagine many people will share the same sentiment and could push KA's ADP pretty high.  

If they draft a QB like Herbert or Tua then who knows.  We could get half a season of Tyrod and half with the new rookie.  Could get a full season of Tyrod while the rookie sits.  Could get a whole season of the rookie.

I think the only way I'm targeting KA next year is if they bring in an established vet such as Brady, Stafford, etc.  Otherwise I'm probably staying away.  

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10 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Yeah I mean if they sign Brady then I'm all over KA next year.  However I imagine many people will share the same sentiment and could push KA's ADP pretty high.  

If they draft a QB like Herbert or Tua then who knows.  We could get half a season of Tyrod and half with the new rookie.  Could get a full season of Tyrod while the rookie sits.  Could get a whole season of the rookie.

I think the only way I'm targeting KA next year is if they bring in an established vet such as Brady, Stafford, etc.  Otherwise I'm probably staying away.  

I have him in dynasty so I'm kinda in a bind at the moment but in my redraft league, I'm only targeting if the bring in a vet @ QB

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2 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

Tyrod threw to his RBs a ton in Buffalo. Its the intermediate routes that suffer with him under center.

 

No one targets their RB's more than Rivers though.

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  • 5 months later...

* My 14 Team .5 PPR Draft Analysis

 

Keenan Allen

Before I start, this is your annual reminder that Keenan Allen is still younger than you think.  He just turned 28 in April.
Fresh off of an 8th place finish in 2019, preceded by a 12th place finish in 2018, and a 3rd place finish in 2017, one could ask... why were 23 WRs taken before him?  The answer will inevitably be Tyrod Taylor; the new QB of the LA Chargers.  Proclaimed by this forum as a 'death sentence for WR production' my initial response is... prove it.  Due to recency bias people will default to the 3 games with CLE in '18.  However Week 1 Jarvis Landry got 15 targets catching 7 of them for 106 yards.  Maybe people point to Josh Gordon, but with the power of hindsight, it seems like maybe Josh Gordon just isn't Flash without the drugs, as we saw his mediocrity continue for the rest of '18 and '19 with multiple other QBs.  Hard to point the finger at Tyrod there.  Week 2 Landry gets 7 targets and 5 catches.  Week 3 Landry gets 14 targets, 8 catches, for 103 yards.  Okay, so through the 3 games Landry and Tyrod have totaled 36 targets, 20 catches, and 278 yards, which is a season pace of 192/106/1482.  Obviously a 3 game sample size isn't fair, but it's all we have for 2018.

2017: Here's a list of all the WRs Tyrod had on BUF for the 2017 season.  Stop me when I get to the one you expected to be good, or who went on to be good post-Tyrod.
Kaelin Clay, Andre Holmes, Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews, Brandon Tate.  Let's file 2017 under 'not Tyrod's fault'.

2016: Same exercise as above.
Marquise Goodwin, Percy Harvin (1 game), Justin Hunter, Dezmin Lewis, Walter Powell, Greg Salas, Brandon Tate, Sammy Watkins (Inj), Robert Woods.
Okay, I'll give you Robert Woods, although technically he didn't breakout until halfway through '17 with the Rams, before exploding in '18 and '19.

2015: Tyrod's first year as a starter, Sammy Watkin's 2nd year in the league.
Watkins only makes 12 games before he goes down this time, but in those 12 games, Watkins goes 93/60/1047/9 in just 12 games.  The 9th best WR on a per-game basis, pacing 124/80/1396/12.

If those are the best 2 examples of Tyrod's #1 WRs (with talent) then I don't foresee any issues.  You know what you're getting with Tyrod, ~400 attempts, 250 completions, 3000 yards, and 15-20 TDs through the air.  Another 100 rushing attempts for 500 yards and 5 more TDs.  That's more than enough for a single WR, RB, and TE to be fantasy relevant.  So as long as there aren't multiple other mouths to feed, Allen should be fine.  If he can manage 130 targets, I would think a reasonable projection is 88 catches, 1100 yards, and 5 TDs, for about 185 fantasy points, which drops him right into the group of WRs from #9 to #25 where all that separates them is a swing of 1-2 touchdowns each on the season.
E.G. Amari Cooper 79/1189/9 finished 9th and OBJ 74/1035/4 finished 25th last year.

Not sure it's of any value, but Keenan Allen's average depth of target was 10.0 last year... the exact same as Jarvis Landry's.  Tyrod specializes in ball control, safety, non-risky throws.  Keenan Allen is bigger, taller, and specializes in elite route running of short to intermediate areas of the field.

Edited by FFCollusion
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