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Kareem Hunt 2020 Outlook


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I own Hunt, I don't own Chubb. I NEED Hunt to be good. Last night Chubb had 23 overall touches, most of those when the game was still up for grabs. Hunt had 12 touches and a lot of those came when the game was pretty much locked up. That discrepancy in touches as well as when they came is disconcerting to me. I love love love Hunt's efficiency and production so far but their usage is not as much "1a" and "1b" as it is "bell cow back" and "backup". I was hoping more for the former and am worried about us getting the latter going forward. 

Still--his production on limited touches so far has been great and he's been a total value at his ADP. 

Edited by yossarian
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2 minutes ago, Chippa said:

yea I remember when BenJarvis Green-Ellis was the starting rb of the patriots in 2011

Danny Woodhead was the 2

we all knew who the stud there was

Come again, what team does Hunt play for? Am I conversing with a bot or a real person?

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1 minute ago, Spyplane said:

Come again, what team does Hunt play for? Am I conversing with a bot or a real person?

I know what your point is going to be. It's cleveland. They're stupid. Chubb is the starter

Stefanski isnt that dumb

at least I hope not. 

I think they're just keeping Hunt fresher for down the line. Still,

his floor is 10 points and his ceiling right now is 25. RB2 with huge upside ROS

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10 minutes ago, yossarian said:

I own Hunt, I don't own Chubb. I NEED Hunt to be good. Last night Chubb had 23 overall touches, most of those when the game was still up for grabs. Hunt had 12 touches and a lot of those came when the game was pretty much locked up. That discrepancy in touches as well as when they came is disconcerting to me. I love love love Hunt's efficiency and production so far but their usage is not as much "1a" and "1b" as it is "bell cow back" and "backup". I was hoping more for the former and am worried about us getting the latter going forward. 

Still--his production on limited production so far has been great and he's been a total value at his ADP. 

 

I'm with you on this. But none of use are foolish enough to expect these type of games every week.

He just happened to have one of his blow-up ceiling games. 

I've said it before, Hunt is basically a lock for 10 fantasy points excluding any touchdowns. Anytime he cashes in on a tuddie is just bonus for us.

Yesterday he was at 23 fantasy points, you minus - those 2 TDs = he ends with 11 .     (half-ppr)

Week 1 he had no touchdowns : 10 fantasy points

My point is, we basically nailed what his floor is. At about 10 fantasy points give or take, and we have a decent idea of what ceiling is.

Although a small sample size, this is good info nonetheless. 

 

 

Edited by RunCMC
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3 minutes ago, Chippa said:

I know what your point is going to be. It's cleveland. They're stupid. Chubb is the starter

Stefanski isnt that dumb

at least I hope not. 

I think they're just keeping Hunt fresher for down the line. Still,

his floor is 10 points and his ceiling right now is 25. RB2 with huge upside ROS

I think depending on the league and circumstance you could fleece someone with Hunt on the table (outbound).

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11 minutes ago, yossarian said:

I own Hunt, I don't own Chubb. I NEED Hunt to be good. Last night Chubb had 23 overall touches, most of those when the game was still up for grabs. Hunt had 12 touches and a lot of those came when the game was pretty much locked up. That discrepancy in touches as well as when they came is disconcerting to me. I love love love Hunt's efficiency and production so far but their usage is not as much "1a" and "1b" as it is "bell cow back" and "backup". I was hoping more for the former and am worried about us getting the latter going forward. 

Still--his production on limited touches so far has been great and he's been a total value at his ADP. 

Week 1, it was the opposite: Hunt had more snaps and carries than Chubb.  It was not has much as the difference this week but, I think it shows that the carries and snap counts will probably vary each week depending on the opponent and game script.  Either way, I think Hunt is the more game script proof of the two.

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Hunt is nice since although he's not the primary ball carrier, he gets touches in a lot of different game scripts. He's basically always got the third downs, they seem to have red zone packages for him, he will be used to run out the clock and he's used in hurry-up offense. Chubb will continue to get a lot of touches, but Hunt seems pretty involved regardless of the game script.

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This is precisely why I stayed away from Chubb this year and took Hunt in the 5th round. While Chubb did have a great game...There's going to be a lot of "Negative Game Script" coming the Browns way here pretty soon, which is sure to get Hunt in the game as a receiver.

I think the thing I like the most about Hunt though, from a fantasy perspective...his floor seems to be around 8-10 PPR points a week. And it's almost a guaranteed 8-10 PPR points a week. Not a guy who you're throwing in there and might only drop 2-3 points.

Floor of 8-10 PPR points, with the upside of him scoring 15-25 PPR points (as witnessed last night). And if anything were to ever happen to Chubb...You're getting a RB1 with 17-25 PPG upside.

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22 hours ago, FitzMagic said:

It's not about how many touches he gets, it is about how efficient he is with them. Tell me if this is a fluke. He went up against the Baltimore defense last week. No validity to your assessment.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3059915/kareem-hunt

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3128720/nick-chubb

It is very much about how many touches a running back gets. If Hunt was assured the touches that some of the high-round picks got this week, he would have been a sure-fire first-round pick. Instead, he went in the 5th or 6th rounds in my drafts. He did go up against the Ravens defense last week and did fine. But he didn't put up 24 points on limited touches, in part because the Ravens aren't the Bengals. The poster I responded to with my comment said nothing critical about Hunt's ability or not being worthy of where he was being drafted. He simply pointed out, and I agree, that it is not realistic to expect 24 points on such limited playing time. 

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22 hours ago, ponchsox said:

He's going to be used differently in every game depending on the situation. What did you expect from Hunt when you drafted him?

I expected him to be a back-end RB2/flex with a 10 point floor in PPR and a ceiling of what we saw last night. Nobody is expecting last's nights output every week. It's a bonus.

The poster I responded to said Hunt owners were lucky to get so many points on such limited touches and I agreed with that. I expected the same thing you mentioned in your reply, a talented runner with a double-digit floor and occasional RB1 weeks when he scores or has a couple of long runs. But unlike the first game, when he nearly split time with Chubb, he played a clear backup role for most of Thursday night. To get that many points in his Week 2 role was lucky, as the initial poster said. Not a knock on Hunt at all.

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21 hours ago, Chippa said:

yea I remember when BenJarvis Green-Ellis was the starting rb of the patriots in 2011

Danny Woodhead was the 2

we all knew who the stud there was

 

Kareem Hunt is a fantasy asset and anyone owning him should be happy about it. 

BUT...

Chubb is no BJGE, in the 8 games before Hunt came back in 2019, Chubb was on a full-season pace of:

308 carries, 1606 rushing yards, 12 TD's, 50 receptions, 322 receiving yards 

That'd be 264.8 in STD leagues (#4 RB) and 314.8 PPR (#2 RB), and in fact, better than Kareem's amazing 2017 rookie year on both fronts.

I do think Hunt is a better pure receiver, but this isn't a case where there's one stud and one mediocre talent siphoning unwarranted snaps, this is a case where if Cleveland had just Chubb or just Hunt, either one of them would be a legitimate contender for the #1 overall RB spot.

 

Edited by vercrazy
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6 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

Kareem Hunt is a fantasy asset and anyone owning him should be happy about it. 

BUT...

Chubb is no BJGE, in the 8 games before Hunt came back in 2019, Chubb was on a full-season pace of:

308 carries, 1606 rushing yards, 12 TD's, 50 receptions, 322 receiving yards 

That'd be 264.8 in STD leagues (#4 RB) and 314.8 PPR (#2 RB), and in fact, better than Kareem's amazing 2017 rookie year on both fronts.

I do think Hunt is a better pure receiver, but this isn't a case where there's one stud and one mediocre talent siphoning unwarranted snaps, this is a case where if Cleveland had just Chubb or just Hunt, either one of them would be a legitimate contender for the #1 overall RB spot.

 

They’re both great, but from my eyes, Hunt is not only the better receiver, but also the better runner

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1 minute ago, Chippa said:

They’re both great, but from my eyes, Hunt is not only the better receiver, but also the better runner

 

many will scoff at that, and i personally consider Chubb one of the top 3 pure runners in this gig ...

but it's closer than most will allow, if not admit 🤷‍♂️

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Just now, CABLE87 said:

Hunt is the Kamara and Chubb is the ingram

 

i know you are couching this as analogous to how you view their usage ... but Hunt is a better rb than Kamara ... if he remained with the Chiefs, or even if he had this gig all to himself, he'd be slam dunk over AK. 

Kamara's not gonna be a workhorse, in the traditional rb sense ... Hunt was, and can be. 

don't @ me, he's better. 

oh, and Chubb is quite a bit better than Ingram, to boot. 

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40 minutes ago, kaesr said:

The poster I responded to said Hunt owners were lucky to get so many points on such limited touches and I agreed with that. I expected the same thing you mentioned in your reply, a talented runner with a double-digit floor and occasional RB1 weeks when he scores or has a couple of long runs. But unlike the first game, when he nearly split time with Chubb, he played a clear backup role for most of Thursday night. To get that many points in his Week 2 role was lucky, as the initial poster said. Not a knock on Hunt at all.

Gotcha. I wouldn’t say all luck but more attributed to Hunt’s talent and his ability to take one to the house with every touch.

Chubb and Hunt make the perfect one, two punch. Chubb wears down the defense early and Hunt does his thing to finish.

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30 minutes ago, Chippa said:

They’re both great, but from my eyes, Hunt is not only the better receiver, but also the better runner


The obvious sell high to me here is Chubb, especially if you can upgrade or diversify your team. Hunt will never retrieve what he’s worth but it is also worth trying to sell high on him. Hunt has league winning upside- not sure if I can say Chubb does if hunt goes down. It’s possible but not sure if Chubb still doesn’t have competition for third down snaps.

Can also try to buy Hunt if the owner doesn’t believe in his performance being a “fluke” lol.

two games now and hunt has found different ways and avenues to produce- negative game script and positive game script. This browns team is bipolar and will be in one of those all year- never neutral.

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3 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:


The obvious sell high to me here is Chubb, especially if you can upgrade or diversify your team. Hunt will never retrieve what he’s worth but it is also worth trying to sell high on him. Hunt has league winning upside- not sure if I can say Chubb does if hunt goes down. It’s possible but not sure if Chubb still doesn’t have competition for third down snaps.

Can also try to buy Hunt if the owner doesn’t believe in his performance being a “fluke” lol.

two games now and hunt has found different ways and avenues to produce- negative game script and positive game script. This browns team is bipolar and will be in one of those all year- never neutral.

either one has league winning upside if the other goes down. as mentioned previously in the thread. Chubb was on top 5 pace before Hunt came back. 

4 hours ago, vercrazy said:

 

Kareem Hunt is a fantasy asset and anyone owning him should be happy about it. 

BUT...

Chubb is no BJGE, in the 8 games before Hunt came back in 2019, Chubb was on a full-season pace of:

308 carries, 1606 rushing yards, 12 TD's, 50 receptions, 322 receiving yards 

That'd be 264.8 in STD leagues (#4 RB) and 314.8 PPR (#2 RB), and in fact, better than Kareem's amazing 2017 rookie year on both fronts.

I do think Hunt is a better pure receiver, but this isn't a case where there's one stud and one mediocre talent siphoning unwarranted snaps, this is a case where if Cleveland had just Chubb or just Hunt, either one of them would be a legitimate contender for the #1 overall RB spot.

 

 

Long story short it's pretty clear they're both fantastic RBs playing one a run first team. Usage so far seems to indicate Chubb will get more work in favorable scripts while Hunt gets more work when they're down and in the 2 minute drill. if either one gets hurt, the other is likely a top 5 back. *Full bias disclosure: I have Hunt on all my teams and them together on one* I think they're capable of having similar seasons to past high producing duos like  Freeman/Coleman and Kamara/Ingram. 

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I really don’t get the comp Kamara/ingram comps at all, because the splits were much more even. 
 

I reiterate, what I said earlier. If Hunt is relegated to 3rd down duties and one series a game, as he was last game, he’s a sell high. 
 

All depending on what you can get for him and your team needs of course.

 

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12 minutes ago, Gandalfthecat said:

I really don’t get the comp Kamara/ingram comps at all, because the splits were much more even. 
 

I reiterate, what I said earlier. If Hunt is relegated to 3rd down duties and one series a game, as he was last game, he’s a sell high. 
 

All depending on what you can get for him and your team needs of course.

 

Yet Hunt out touched Chubb 17-11 in week one. It's all dependent on the game script. In the games Cleveland trails, Hunt will be more of a factor than Chubb.

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15 minutes ago, Gandalfthecat said:

I really don’t get the comp Kamara/ingram comps at all, because the splits were much more even. 
 

I reiterate, what I said earlier. If Hunt is relegated to 3rd down duties and one series a game, as he was last game, he’s a sell high. 
 

All depending on what you can get for him and your team needs of course.

 

And in that low touch, negative game script for Hunt, if you take away both TDs, he netted 12 PPR points. So this looks to be roughly his floor? That's not a sell-high; that's a ride-all-the-way.

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I've seen people everywhere comparing this to a Kamara/Ingram situation. To me, it's more of a Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles situation, except with Chubb being more talented than Thomas Jones was. I liken Hunt to Jamaal Charles in their exceptional receiving abilities and their efficiency in their touches (Charles excelled as the change-of-pace back and even had a 5.9 and 6.4 ypc for a couple years). I do think that Hunt is more capable of handling a full load than Charles was. It's a blessing and a curse that these guys are sharing, as they're both perfectly capable of having their own team, but I think the touches will vary week to week, and that they will help to keep the other fresh, healthy, and efficient as the season wears on. 

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