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Mookie Betts 2020 Outlook


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Right now speculation on his performance is tied into where he may play this year.  Boston?  San Diego?  LA Dodgers?  Those three seem to be the only options mentioned these days.

For what it is worth this was reported tonight on Boston sports stations during the late night news citing well known local sports commentator and former Red Sox player Lou Merloni as the source.  That Boston tried to extend Mookie in the off season again and offered 10 years and 300 million dollars.  He wanted 12 years and 420 million instead.  Crazy crazy contract and super long term commitment.  And that was Boston's offer.  Mookie's was even worse.  So no wonder the Red Sox are seriously trying to trade him this year and get something, anything, in return now.  Good luck to the team that does sign him next season to a massive contract.  Hope it isn't my Red Sox.

 

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Betts batted behind Jackie Bradley Jr for years. The pitchers will be an upgrade.

Who cares about "skills level."  It is not competitive any more as a league.  NBA is run by about a half dozen players.  It sucks because of that. And quit saying people who are against 12 year /

Much as I like to bash Mookie, I have to defend his contracts demands.  He’s a 6-7 war per year avg player and those type of players are just super rare.  Harper is like a 4 War player except that sen

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I think his value takes a sizeable dive if traded to SD IMO. His counting stats will decline and potentially HR and AVG. 

If he goes to LA he will be in a great position to keep those counting stats but his average may still come down to sub 290.

This is a case where a trade is not welcomed for fantasy purposes.

His contract demands are silly.

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6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Right now speculation on his performance is tied into where he may play this year.  Boston?  San Diego?  LA Dodgers?  Those three seem to be the only options mentioned these days.

For what it is worth this was reported tonight on Boston sports stations during the late night news citing well known local sports commentator and former Red Sox player Lou Merloni as the source.  That Boston tried to extend Mookie in the off season again and offered 10 years and 300 million dollars.  He wanted 12 years and 420 million instead.  Crazy crazy contract and super long term commitment.  And that was Boston's offer.  Mookie's was even worse.  So no wonder the Red Sox are seriously trying to trade him this year and get something, anything, in return now.  Good luck to the team that does sign him next season to a massive contract.  Hope it isn't my Red Sox.

 

 

A year in San Diego and that 10 year $300 million dollar deal might look pretty attractive. 

After the Manny Machado and Bryce Harper contracts,  this is the type of money it will probably take at the moment. 

It feels like he belongs in Boston and it probably will be a mistake leaving the cozy confines of Fenway Park for his stats.

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6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Right now speculation on his performance is tied into where he may play this year.  Boston?  San Diego?  LA Dodgers?  Those three seem to be the only options mentioned these days.

For what it is worth this was reported tonight on Boston sports stations during the late night news citing well known local sports commentator and former Red Sox player Lou Merloni as the source.  That Boston tried to extend Mookie in the off season again and offered 10 years and 300 million dollars.  He wanted 12 years and 420 million instead.  Crazy crazy contract and super long term commitment.  And that was Boston's offer.  Mookie's was even worse.  So no wonder the Red Sox are seriously trying to trade him this year and get something, anything, in return now.  Good luck to the team that does sign him next season to a massive contract.  Hope it isn't my Red Sox.

 

I heard that yesterday on the radio. I try to catch those three everyday. Merloni, Ordway & Fauria. 
That offer was after the 2018 season and Merloni is unsure if Sox offered anything after last season. 
 

I dislike all those mega deals. IMO Teams are really foolish to offer those types of contracts. Hinder teams for years to come. 

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Much as I like to bash Mookie, I have to defend his contracts demands.  He’s a 6-7 war per year avg player and those type of players are just super rare.  Harper is like a 4 War player except that sensational season he had around 5 years ago.

Hes only turning 27.  His obp skills will not fade.  The power should be there. Only the speed will fade over time but that’s not his key asset.

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

I heard that yesterday on the radio. I try to catch those three everyday. Merloni, Ordway & Fauria. 
That offer was after the 2018 season and Merloni is unsure if Sox offered anything after last season. 
 

I dislike all those mega deals. IMO Teams are really foolish to offer those types of contracts. Hinder teams for years to come. 

Thanks for the correction on the year.  So that ten year offer would have been Dombrowski's wheeling and dealing attempt which makes more sense given his style of GM'ing.  Looks like Bloom has far more common sense then.  I like the direction Bloom is taking doing a slow rebuild on the fly much better.  Thinking long term for the team than long term for a single star's contract.

Mookie is listed at 5 foot 9 inches and 180 lbs.  Mookie isn't built as physically strong as some players and there have been discussions and speculations on talk shows here that over time people with his type of physique tend to decline earlier and fade big time quicker than physically bigger and stronger players so even 10 yeas is a scary commitment.  Especially his ability to keep up his lightning swing.  So twelve is insane.

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5 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Much as I like to bash Mookie, I have to defend his contracts demands.  He’s a 6-7 war per year avg player and those type of players are just super rare.  Harper is like a 4 War player except that sensational season he had around 5 years ago.

Hes only turning 27.  His obp skills will not fade.  The power should be there. Only the speed will fade over time but that’s not his key asset.

Yeah he’s been worth 35 WAR over the past 5 years, which at 8M/WAR is 280M. He should be able to maintain that level or close to it for the next 5, and his contact skills should at least keep him useful in his 30s, so 10/300 seems like a bargain honestly.

12/420 is tougher as you’re adding in age 38 and 39 seasons where he’s unlikely to do anything, and raising the money by 40%. It’s far from impossible he could earn that deal but I wouldn’t bank on it.

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20 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Much as I like to bash Mookie, I have to defend his contracts demands.  He’s a 6-7 war per year avg player and those type of players are just super rare.  Harper is like a 4 War player except that sensational season he had around 5 years ago.

Hes only turning 27.  His obp skills will not fade.  The power should be there. Only the speed will fade over time but that’s not his key asset.

Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day I bet he gets somewhere in between the 10/300 and 12/420. I'll never fault a guy for trying to maximize his value. But I also won't fault the Sox for trading him and restocking the farm system. That's a lot of money for one player.

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The Red Sox problem is teams know Betts will get this contract. So it will be similar to the Giancarlo Stanton trade where Red Sox won't get much because teams are already sacrificing so much to keep the player.

As for fantasy, I don't think the change in park will necessary effect Betts much. If he goes to any of the rumored teams they all have strong offenses. Petco isn't a great park but maybe we are looking at a decrease in a few home runs? Its nothing worth discounting him for. If he slides in early drafts because of this concern it is a nice value add to take advantage.

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10 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Yeah he’s been worth 35 WAR over the past 5 years, which at 8M/WAR is 280M. He should be able to maintain that level or close to it for the next 5, and his contact skills should at least keep him useful in his 30s, so 10/300 seems like a bargain honestly.

12/420 is tougher as you’re adding in age 38 and 39 seasons where he’s unlikely to do anything, and raising the money by 40%. It’s far from impossible he could earn that deal but I wouldn’t bank on it.

 

10 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Much as I like to bash Mookie, I have to defend his contracts demands.  He’s a 6-7 war per year avg player and those type of players are just super rare.  Harper is like a 4 War player except that sensational season he had around 5 years ago.

Hes only turning 27.  His obp skills will not fade.  The power should be there. Only the speed will fade over time but that’s not his key asset.

Oh yeah because paying guys for WAR stats of the past is such a good idea lmao. This is how you get Jason Heyward contracts. 

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14 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

 

Oh yeah because paying guys for WAR stats of the past is such a good idea lmao. This is how you get Jason Heyward contracts. 

Jason Heyward’s WAR was always tied to playing elite defensive RF. Which is no exact science. Mookie is tied to being a great fielder AND an elite hitter. Not really close to the same. But I’m sure you know that. 

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2 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Jason Heyward’s WAR was always tied to playing elite defensive RF. Which is no exact science. Mookie is tied to being a great fielder AND an elite hitter. Not really close to the same. But I’m sure you know that. 

Applying WAR to dollars is horrid. It's not what WAR is for.

Also don't act like Hayward was just a defender, when he signed that deal there was a slew of guys comparing him to Wade Boggs and also talking about how valuable his walks were.

Career WAR for contract dollars is silly and not the use of WAR.

Mookie doesn't have much room to regress and be an impact player. He hit 295 with 29 HR and 16 SB last year... Put him in a worse offensive stadium, add a little physical decline and you got a 280s, 20 HR, 12 SB guy making $35 MM per year lol good luck with that.

I'd be willing to "bett" that Mookie ages like McCutchen. Good ball player age 28 and after, but paying him 30+ for 10+ years would kill your team.

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On 1/29/2020 at 9:45 AM, SpartyOn4 said:

Yeah he’s been worth 35 WAR over the past 5 years, which at 8M/WAR is 280M. He should be able to maintain that level or close to it for the next 5, and his contact skills should at least keep him useful in his 30s, so 10/300 seems like a bargain honestly.

12/420 is tougher as you’re adding in age 38 and 39 seasons where he’s unlikely to do anything, and raising the money by 40%. It’s far from impossible he could earn that deal but I wouldn’t bank on it.


1 WAR is worth $4 Million. I don’t remember where I read it, but if you do the math it fits. Average WAR is 2 and average 1 year salary is $8 million.

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23 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Applying WAR to dollars is horrid. It's not what WAR is for.

Also don't act like Hayward was just a defender, when he signed that deal there was a slew of guys comparing him to Wade Boggs and also talking about how valuable his walks were.

Career WAR for contract dollars is silly and not the use of WAR.

Mookie doesn't have much room to regress and be an impact player. He hit 295 with 29 HR and 16 SB last year... Put him in a worse offensive stadium, add a little physical decline and you got a 280s, 20 HR, 12 SB guy making $35 MM per year lol good luck with that.

I'd be willing to "bett" that Mookie ages like McCutchen. Good ball player age 28 and after, but paying him 30+ for 10+ years would kill your team.

Other than Trout, who has “room to regress” on a large contract? Name any player, I’ll take a few stats off each number, than lol at the contract. What do you think that proves? Lol

There's no exact WAR = dollars math, but WAR = total value, so yeah, that’s going to be a gauge (along with age) for contracts. So...

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23 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Applying WAR to dollars is horrid. It's not what WAR is for.

Put him in a worse offensive stadium, add a little physical decline and you got a 280s, 20 HR, 12 SB guy making $35 MM per year lol good luck with that.

 


WAR per dollar isn’t perfect, but equating roto stats to what a player should /shouldn’t make seems much worse to me. Steals are worth nothing. Batting average is a terrible rate stat compared to even OPS (which is a terrible stat in itself )

 

IF Mookie signs a 10 year deal he will very obviously not earn well in the last two (at least ) . That being said you can get a good player and pay a lot of money, or just pass on that player and have a worse team. For some team it’s going to be worth it. Ideally you have a great farm that comes up and is cheap for a long while , but even then you need to supplant it with free agent signings to truly maximize win potential.
 

400 million sounds like too much but he’s going to get a huge deal. David Price and Max Scherzer got enormous contracts that many said were not worth it at the time ( obviously Scherzer has held up better ). Still both were key cogs on championship teams.

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On 1/29/2020 at 6:29 AM, KingJoffrey said:

Much as I like to bash Mookie, I have to defend his contracts demands.  He’s a 6-7 war per year avg player and those type of players are just super rare.  Harper is like a 4 War player except that sensational season he had around 5 years ago.

Hes only turning 27.  His obp skills will not fade.  The power should be there. Only the speed will fade over time but that’s not his key asset.


never thought I’d see this day

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23 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Applying WAR to dollars is horrid. It's not what WAR is for.

Also don't act like Hayward was just a defender, when he signed that deal there was a slew of guys comparing him to Wade Boggs and also talking about how valuable his walks were.

Career WAR for contract dollars is silly and not the use of WAR.

Mookie doesn't have much room to regress and be an impact player. He hit 295 with 29 HR and 16 SB last year... Put him in a worse offensive stadium, add a little physical decline and you got a 280s, 20 HR, 12 SB guy making $35 MM per year lol good luck with that.

I'd be willing to "bett" that Mookie ages like McCutchen. Good ball player age 28 and after, but paying him 30+ for 10+ years would kill your team.

The biggest ingredient that was baked into Heyward was his age. They bought more prime years, so they paid more for the talent. There was arguments he had offensive upside still. Which could have been part of the justification for the deal. He was never consider'd a great pure hitter though. Not like Mookie has been.

Never heard Wade Boggs crap. (It may have been said, but I would have never taken it seriously)

As for decline? Not sure. Maybe you can argue that undersized players are riskier when it comes to mega deals. I can respect that argument. McCutchen is a sample size of one though. He hit 30 HRs once and he needed .350+ BABIPs to reach a .300 BA. Betts has a more maxed to power approach then Cutch did.

 Fenway benefits batting average and doubles more then HRs though. So, yeah the days of hitting 300 may go away. If he's still walking a ton. Not sure how much that will hurt his overall production.

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50 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Other than Trout, who has “room to regress” on a large contract? Name any player, I’ll take a few stats off each number, than lol at the contract. What do you think that proves? Lol

There's no exact WAR = dollars math, but WAR = total value, so yeah, that’s going to be a gauge (along with age) for contracts. So...

Tons of players have room to regress, namely larger power hitters. Mookie struggles to get 30 HR and has yet to hit 30 in back to back years... But guys with natural power that bat 50 HR and regress to 35+ HR like David Ortiz did are still valuable as they age. Guys like Dustin Pedroia small frame without natural power trend to age like milk. Larger players with easy power are going to be your better bet to age as their athletic explosiveness fades, like Nelson Cruz who actually used to have good wheels and stole 20 bags when he was younger.

Point is if Mookie pulls back just a little he's rather ordinary especially since his fielding is built on his range as his jump and route measurements are merely average.

Regardless this should not be an issue in 2020, only that he's writing his ticket out of Boston which is likely to impact his fantasy value negatively.

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7 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Tons of players have room to regress, namely larger power hitters. Mookie struggles to get 30 HR and has yet to hit 30 in back to back years... But guys with natural power that bat 50 HR and regress to 35+ HR like David Ortiz did are still valuable as they age. Guys like Dustin Pedroia small frame without natural power trend to age like milk. Larger players with easy power are going to be your better bet to age as their athletic explosiveness fades, like Nelson Cruz who actually used to have good wheels and stole 20 bags when he was younger.

Point is if Mookie pulls back just a little he's rather ordinary especially since his fielding is built on his range as his jump and route measurements are merely average.

Regardless this should not be an issue in 2020, only that he's writing his ticket out of Boston which is likely to impact his fantasy value negatively.

So two guys linked to PEDs aged well as they approached 40. Ok lol

How about Pujols? Miggy? Actual HOF hitters. Odd, huh? The truth is these long contracts are going to be bad at the back end for whoever they are. To pretend this is unique to players like Mookie is silly. 
 

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16 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

So two guys linked to PEDs aged well as they approached 40. Ok lol

How about Pujols? Miggy? Actual HOF hitters. Odd, huh? The truth is these long contracts are going to be bad at the back end for whoever they are. To pretend this is unique to players like Mookie is silly. 
 

Pujols and Miggy both performed well into their mid 30s as they pulled back from their prime. Miggy hit 316, 38 hr, 108 rbi at age 33. 0ujols has 100 RBI 5 times since turning 30 and hit 40 HR at age 35. 

What I've been saying is just the smallest pullback and mookie is ordinary he doesn't do any one thing extraordinary, he's a well rounded contributor... Like i said, he's never hit 30 hr back to back years, he struggles to get 30 and just hit 29 with a juiced ball. If you go from mashing 45 HR to hitting 35 HR that's still valuable. But if you go from hitting 29 HR like hit did last year to hitting approx 20 and your steals tumble (16 last year) to a dozen, and your range dependent fielding is now in decline as well as it already has been the last 3 seasons, then that's a big issue. 

 

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I’m amazed no one has mentioned it...Mookie wouldn’t have anywhere near the perceived value he’s at right now if he hadn’t had such a monster year in 2018.

 

Wait a second...what happened in 2018?

 

oh yeah the Red Sox cheated...

 

I will say comparing him and mccutchen makes sense.  Both have all around skills and thrive at getting on base.  Mccutchen has only seen his Obp dip below .360 once and while his speed and defense have faded he’s still a top of the lineup bat.  No reason Mookie can’t follow a similar career arc.  Is .260/.360/.800 worth 30+ million a year for the back half of a contract.  Doubt it. But if he helps win someone a championship or two now(looking at you dodgers) then I’m sure they’d be fine having a serviceable outfield for 10 years while their fans continue to love him.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

Pujols and Miggy both performed well into their mid 30s as they pulled back from their prime. Miggy hit 316, 38 hr, 108 rbi at age 33. 0ujols has 100 RBI 5 times since turning 30 and hit 40 HR at age 35. 

What I've been saying is just the smallest pullback and mookie is ordinary he doesn't do any one thing extraordinary, he's a well rounded contributor... Like i said, he's never hit 30 hr back to back years, he struggles to get 30 and just hit 29 with a juiced ball. If you go from mashing 45 HR to hitting 35 HR that's still valuable. But if you go from hitting 29 HR like hit did last year to hitting approx 20 and your steals tumble (16 last year) to a dozen, and your range dependent fielding is now in decline as well as it already has been the last 3 seasons, then that's a big issue.

Having watched tons of Red Sox games I have to say that it seems to me that last year is more of who Mookie really is.  A really really good player with greatness potential and performance at times but not sustainable greatness like a Mike Trout. 

He looked like an entirely different player last year compared to 2018.  And no I don't really think it had anything to do with sign stealing in 2018 and I don't know if he was even involved in that personally anyway.  He just looked less a superman and more just a pretty good man.  He looked "vulnerable" in a way he didn't in 2018 is the best way I can describe it.  Maybe it was a sudden lack of confidence thing when he got off to a slow start?  I don't know.  But he was basically 4th best on the team behind Xander, Devers and JD all year long.

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53 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Having watched tons of Red Sox games I have to say that it seems to me that last year is more of who Mookie really is.  A really really good player with greatness potential and performance at times but not sustainable greatness like a Mike Trout. 

He looked like an entirely different player last year compared to 2018.  And no I don't really think it had anything to do with sign stealing in 2018 and I don't know if he was even involved in that personally anyway.  He just looked less a superman and more just a pretty good man.  He looked "vulnerable" in a way he didn't in 2018 is the best way I can describe it.  Maybe it was a sudden lack of confidence thing when he got off to a slow start?  I don't know.  But he was basically 4th best on the team behind Xander, Devers and JD all year long.

this. mookie is an 870 to 920 OPS guy.  2018 is an outlier.  im not giving a 10 years 350 mil deal to a guy like this.  hes going to lose some speed which will effect his base running AND defense. betts is a VERY good player but i dont think he a guy that carries a team.  its a smart move if boston can trade him for a top prospect arm and another prospect or 2.

 

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26 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

this. mookie is an 870 to 920 OPS guy.  2018 is an outlier.  im not giving a 10 years 350 mil deal to a guy like this.  hes going to lose some speed which will effect his base running AND defense. betts is a VERY good player but i dont think he a guy that carries a team.  its a smart move if boston can trade him for a top prospect arm and another prospect or 2.

 

based on ... age? He's 27.

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