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Mookie Betts 2020 Outlook


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Betts batted behind Jackie Bradley Jr for years. The pitchers will be an upgrade.

Who cares about "skills level."  It is not competitive any more as a league.  NBA is run by about a half dozen players.  It sucks because of that. And quit saying people who are against 12 year /

Much as I like to bash Mookie, I have to defend his contracts demands.  He’s a 6-7 war per year avg player and those type of players are just super rare.  Harper is like a 4 War player except that sen

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1 hour ago, apap414 said:

Great spot for him.  I’d expect an increase in stats for sure 

I don't.  If he leads off who is he going to drive in to increase his RBI totals?  The pitcher?  Harder to hit homers there too.  And no Green Monster to use for his bushels of doubles he got at Fenway.

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5 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't.  If he leads off who is he going to drive in to increase his RBI totals?  The pitcher?  Harder to hit homers there too.  And no Green Monster to use for his bushels of doubles he got at Fenway.

 

i agree with this.  dont think betts is a first rounder

 

btw, great trade for boston.

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I can see being a little concerned about the league change and leaving Fenway, but the Dodgers are likely to have the best offense in baseball and Mookie is going to be playing for that massive contract. There is no way I’m passing on him in the late first round. That lineup is 🔥!

And, btw, give me all of the discounted Justin Turner and Corey Seager shares, too.

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15 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Bogaerts 141 wRC+
JD 139 wRC+
Mookie 135 wRC+
Devers 132 wRC+
 

Let’s be clear, “Fourth best hitter on his own team” is not only false, But based on how close and great all these guys are, it’s an attempt to be intentionally misleading. Mookie was still REALLY good. They happened to have 3 top 25 hitters in MLB. Lol

The home/road splits is also an attempt to be misleading. I know you know this, but all the people loving your post apparently aren’t aware that just about every team hits better at home than on the road. 

I’d expect Mookie to hit less HRs in some of the larger parks out west. But I wouldn’t be shocked if some of those turn into doubles, as well as some of his other “usual” outs in those cavernous outfields. It’s quite possible his average goes up. 

Ok so where to start?

First off just because they have a stacked lineup doesn't make it misleading, especially talking roster construction in building a contender. Their hitting is stacked, they don't need his bat to still be competitive. Don't change the argument to whether he's good, he's obviously good.

By your one and only single measure to measure them as hitters that you picked, mookie is still 3rd best -- by your own singular measure.

I hate to break it to you but between Bogaerts, JDM, Devers, and Mookie last year -- Bogaerts, JDM, Devers all had more HR, better batting average, better slugging, and better OPS... But hey, mookie walked more.

Bogaerts: 33 HR, .309 AVG, .555 SLG, .939 OPS

JDM: 36 HR, .304 AVG, .557 SLG, .939 OPS

Devers: 32, .311 AVG, .555 SLG, .916 OPS

Betts: 29 HR, .295 AVG, .524 SLG, .915 OPS

Mookie is the only one that didn't hit 30 or 300... Not a single one of those key hitting measures does he best his teammates. Is he still good? Obviously, i wasn't saying he wasn't good... But he wasn't a better hitter than any of those 3 last year -- it shows the strength of that lineup, you can contend with Bogy, JDM, and Devers as the heart of your order.

Also when you play in a park like Fenway and pepper the monster with a heavy pull approach like his does Home/Road splits do matter... Especially over a large sample size... Especially when he's changing teams to a below neutral park factor. He might pick up a few more HR, but that average is likely to drop in kind.

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Yeah if he's leading off his RBI will go down for sure.  I think otherwise he is a great hitter who will adjust to whatever park he's in.  Also factor in 9/10 games at Coors every year.  And another 9/10 games at home but still against the shambles Rockies pitching rotation.  It'd be nice to own him in H2H leagues those weeks.  

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LAD is a great landing spot. Still a downgrade from Boston which was pretty much as good of a place you could be but this the best place from rumored destinations -- in another stacked lineup that will not hinder him from producing 1st round production.

Will be interesting to see how the average goes this year without being able to lean on the green monster. 

My questions on mookie this season are if the stolen bases will return and if that average will crack 290. His counting stats should be fine, his homers should be unaffected and may very well increase. 

His lineup position will impact his RBIs significantly especially going from AL to NL. If he leads off that may damage his RBI opportunities badly, hopefully he hits in front of Bellinger 2-3.

Changing leagues he's got all new pitchers to face, that has proven to be difficult for many hitters. Wild card factor.

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2 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Ok so where to start?

First off just because they have a stacked lineup doesn't make it misleading, especially talking roster construction in building a contender. Their hitting is stacked, they don't need his bat to still be competitive. Don't change the argument to whether he's good, he's obviously good.

By your one and only single measure to measure them as hitters that you picked, mookie is still 3rd best -- by your own singular measure.

I hate to break it to you but between Bogaerts, JDM, Devers, and Mookie last year -- Bogaerts, JDM, Devers all had more HR, better batting average, better slugging, and better OPS... But hey, mookie walked more.

Bogaerts: 33 HR, .309 AVG, .555 SLG, .939 OPS

JDM: 36 HR, .304 AVG, .557 SLG, .939 OPS

Devers: 32, .311 AVG, .555 SLG, .916 OPS

Betts: 29 HR, .295 AVG, .524 SLG, .915 OPS

Mookie is the only one that didn't hit 30 or 300... Not a single one of those key hitting measures does he best his teammates. Is he still good? Obviously, i wasn't saying he wasn't good... But he wasn't a better hitter than any of those 3 last year -- it shows the strength of that lineup, you can contend with Bogy, JDM, and Devers as the heart of your order.

Also when you play in a park like Fenway and pepper the monster with a heavy pull approach like his does Home/Road splits do matter... Especially over a large sample size... Especially when he's changing teams to a below neutral park factor. He might pick up a few more HR, but that average is likely to drop in kind.

Betts had a slightly higher wOBA then Devers. wOBA calculation uses the actual run value of each hitting outcome. Singles are worth more then Walks, but they are not worth 2X more like it is in the OPS formula.

(Which would be very obvious when you think it about, there are men on base less then 50% of the time when the hitter is up. Single's value over BB's is only when men are on base to move them over)

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3 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

Yeah if he's leading off his RBI will go down for sure.  I think otherwise he is a great hitter who will adjust to whatever park he's in.  Also factor in 9/10 games at Coors every year.  And another 9/10 games at home but still against the shambles Rockies pitching rotation.  It'd be nice to own him in H2H leagues those weeks.  

 

As opposed to those games against a dominant Orioles staff.

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Dont know if anyone brought this up..I will begin by saying that i am not really in tune on what the relationship between Red Sox and Betts is/was, don't know if Betts loved playing for them or not but assuming they had good mutual feelings..

Imagine if If the Red Sox and Betts are playing the long game and playing chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers...

Red Sox just unloaded Price's salary and picked up a couple nice young talented team friendly contracts putting them in a prime position to try to sign Betts in FA should Betts not extend with the Dodgers(which sounds like he's probably not until he tests FA waters). 

As a Dodger fan...this scares me.

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20 minutes ago, larfboy said:

Dont know if anyone brought this up..I will begin by saying that i am not really in tune on what the relationship between Red Sox and Betts is/was, don't know if Betts loved playing for them or not but assuming they had good mutual feelings..

Imagine if If the Red Sox and Betts are playing the long game and playing chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers...

Red Sox just unloaded Price's salary and picked up a couple nice young talented team friendly contracts putting them in a prime position to try to sign Betts in FA should Betts not extend with the Dodgers(which sounds like he's probably not until he tests FA waters). 

As a Dodger fan...this scares me.

LAD has to be aware the Red Sox offer of 10/300 was shot down. I can't imagine they're trading for him unless they are prepared to offer at least close to the reported 12/420 that Betts was asking for.

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8 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

LAD has to be aware the Red Sox offer of 10/300 was shot down. I can't imagine they're trading for him unless they are prepared to offer at least close to the reported 12/420 that Betts was asking for.

 

As long as it leads to a title, I think LAD would be comfortable with the price they paid even if this is just a one year rental.  It'd be different if they had to include May or Lux, but both Maeda and Verdugo were basically spare parts, and their minor league system is still loaded.  They're splashing the pot and not worried too much about next season, something a lot of MLB owners could learn from.

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7 hours ago, meh2 said:

I can see being a little concerned about the league change and leaving Fenway, but the Dodgers are likely to have the best offense in baseball and Mookie is going to be playing for that massive contract. There is no way I’m passing on him in the late first round. That lineup is 🔥!

And, btw, give me all of the discounted Justin Turner and Corey Seager shares, too.

 

So he's hitting in front of Muncy, Turner & Bellinger as opposed to Xander, Devers & JDM.  That's not really much of an upgrade, if any at all.  

The biggest difference will be hitting behind a pitcher.

He's not going to see an uptick in runs, but his RBIs will very likely take a hit.  I can't see this as anything other than depressant on his value.  Minor, perhaps, but still a hit.

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50 minutes ago, larfboy said:

Dont know if anyone brought this up..I will begin by saying that i am not really in tune on what the relationship between Red Sox and Betts is/was, don't know if Betts loved playing for them or not but assuming they had good mutual feelings..

Imagine if If the Red Sox and Betts are playing the long game and playing chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers...

Red Sox just unloaded Price's salary and picked up a couple nice young talented team friendly contracts putting them in a prime position to try to sign Betts in FA should Betts not extend with the Dodgers(which sounds like he's probably not until he tests FA waters). 

As a Dodger fan...this scares me.

 

tumblr_o1woi3wQZd1slucy6o1_400.gifv

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16 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

As long as it leads to a title, I think LAD would be comfortable with the price they paid even if this is just a one year rental.  It'd be different if they had to include May or Lux, but both Maeda and Verdugo were basically spare parts, and their minor league system is still loaded.  They're splashing the pot and not worried too much about next season, something a lot of MLB owners could learn from.

Agree. I don't want him long term on my Dodgers. Same way I was happy to get Machado to try and win then let him walk and get a pick for him.

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