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Mookie Betts 2020 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

So he's hitting in front of Muncy, Turner & Bellinger as opposed to Xander, Devers & JDM.  That's not really much of an upgrade, if any at all.  

The biggest difference will be hitting behind a pitcher.

He's not going to see an uptick in runs, but his RBIs will very likely take a hit.  I can't see this as anything other than depressant on his value.  Minor, perhaps, but still a hit.

I agree with you on the Runs and lineup aspect behind Mookie. Not sure I see any upgrade.

But I’m not sure why we automatically think his RBI go down because “OMG pitcher right in front of him!” There’s not just one hitter in front of you. How often will that pitcher bunt someone over? Or simply not make the last out?

Would you rather have your hitter hit behind:

Seager, W.Smith, Lux, and SP

or

M.Moreland, E.Nunez, Sandy Leon, & J.Bradley?
 

I mean, I don’t think it’s particularly close. I think the “leading off in the NL” is simple-minded and lacks context. I’d bet Mookie surpasses the 80 RBI he’s finished with the past two seasons.

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5 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

Yeah if he's leading off his RBI will go down for sure.  I think otherwise he is a great hitter who will adjust to whatever park he's in.  Also factor in 9/10 games at Coors every year.  And another 9/10 games at home but still against the shambles Rockies pitching rotation.  It'd be nice to own him in H2H leagues those weeks.  

 

I don't think 2-3 series at Coors will impact his overall value that much.  You're basically replacing series at Yankee Stadium and Camden.  Plus, he has to play series in San Fran & San Diego.  Also, Colorado's rotation isn't that bad away from Coors.  Certainly no worse than Baltimores.

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6 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I agree with you on the Runs and lineup aspect behind Mookie. Not sure I see any upgrade.

But I’m not sure why we automatically think his RBI go down because “OMG pitcher right in front of him!” There’s not just one hitter in front of you. How often will that pitcher bunt someone over? Or simply not make the last out?

Would you rather have your hitter hit behind:

Seager, W.Smith, Lux, and SP

or

M.Moreland, E.Nunez, Sandy Leon, & J.Bradley?
 

I mean, I don’t think it’s particularly close. I think the “leading off in the NL” is simple-minded and lacks context. I’d bet Mookie surpasses the 80 RBI he’s finished with the past two seasons.

 

As for any kind of uptick in runs, he scored 135 last year.  135!  What do people think, he's going to score 150?  He could have the exact same season offensively and still "only" score 120, just because it's hard to score 135 runs, even with 3 studs hitting behind you.

 

As for the bottom of the lineup argument, I don't think you can undersell how bad pitchers are offensively.  Just a quick glance shows last year's typical Red Sox lineup had Moreland, Holt & Bradley in the 7-9 spots.

Moreland: 112 wRC+
Holt: 135
JBJ: 90

 

Now, compare that to the Dodgers.  Let's say it's Seager, Lux and pitcher.  That's being generous, because Seager probably bats higher up.  I'll even throw in prime Corey Seager numbers assuming he has a fully healthy season.

Seager: 136 wRC+
Lux: 104 (using his Fangraphs projections)
Average pitcher: about -18 wRC+

 

Even if you want to shuffle different names in and out of there, the difference between, even a bad hitter like Bradley, and a pitcher is just so significant, you really can't argue the bottom 3 hitters in LA's lineup will be more productive than Boston's.

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

So he's hitting in front of Muncy, Turner & Bellinger as opposed to Xander, Devers & JDM.  That's not really much of an upgrade, if any at all.  

The biggest difference will be hitting behind a pitcher.

He's not going to see an uptick in runs, but his RBIs will very likely take a hit.  I can't see this as anything other than depressant on his value.  Minor, perhaps, but still a hit.

I wasn't arguing that the move to LA is an upgrade for Mookie. I was arguing that the move shouldn't cause anyone to significantly downgrade him for this year. Someone earlier had posted that he was no longer a 1st rounder and I have seen several similar comments on Twitter. I was disagreeing with that sentiment.

ATC is becoming my favorite projection system and he currently has Mookie projected for 32 HR, 124 R, 88 RBIs, 19 SB, and a .300 avg in 149 games. I'm not sure if the team context is now much different, but if you were adjusting the projections a bit given the home park downgrade and pitcher hitting in front of him, maybe it gets adjusted to 29 HR, 122 R, 80 RBIs, 19 SB, and a .295 avg. That's still a first rounder and highly valuable. 

Prior to the trade, my 1st round rankings were Acuna, Trout, and Yelich in Tier 1. I had Betts and Bellinger in Tier 2. After that, I had Lindor, Story, and Soto in Tier 3, followed by Turner, Cole, DeGrom, and JRam in Tier 4. After the trade I'm now putting Bellinger ahead of him in his own tier and putting Betts slightly ahead of Lindor/Story/Soto in that tier. But that's as far as he's dropping for me. I've done two drafts already thus far, and at the end of those drafts I fell a bit short of my targeted stolen base totals in both. Steals are hard to come by this year and the 20 or so Mookie gives you, as well as all of the other goodies, are highly valuable.

As far as the lineup concerns, last year the Red Sox were 4th in runs scored with 901, while the Dodgers were 5th with 886. Adding Betts and having Lux for a full season, I definitely wouldn't expect that to get worse. Betts is still a 5 category stud, even if his RBIs aren't elite.

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4 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I wasn't arguing that the move to LA is an upgrade for Mookie. I was arguing that the move shouldn't cause anyone to significantly downgrade him for this year. Someone earlier had posted that he was no longer a 1st rounder and I have seen several similar comments on Twitter. I was disagreeing with that sentiment.

ATC is becoming my favorite projection system and he currently has Mookie projected for 32 HR, 124 R, 88 RBIs, 19 SB, and a .300 avg in 149 games. I'm not sure if the team context is now much different, but if you were adjusting the projections a bit given the home park downgrade and pitcher hitting in front of him, maybe it gets adjusted to 29 HR, 122 R, 80 RBIs, 19 SB, and a .295 avg. That's still a first rounder and highly valuable. 

Prior to the trade, my 1st round rankings were Acuna, Trout, and Yelich in Tier 1. I had Betts and Bellinger in Tier 2. After that, I had Lindor, Story, and Soto in Tier 3, followed by Turner, Cole, DeGrom, and JRam in Tier 4. After the trade I'm now putting Bellinger ahead of him in his own tier and putting Betts slightly ahead of Lindor/Story/Soto in that tier. But that's as far as he's dropping for me. I've done two drafts already thus far, and at the end of those drafts I fell a bit short of my targeted stolen base totals in both. Steals are hard to come by this year and the 20 or so Mookie gives you, as well as all of the other goodies, are highly valuable.

As far as the lineup concerns, last year the Red Sox were 4th in runs scored with 901, while the Dodgers were 5th with 886. Adding Betts and having Lux for a full season, I definitely wouldn't expect that to get worse. Betts is still a 5 category stud, even if his RBIs aren't elite.

Agree with your statements but disagree with his RBIs increasing from what they were the last 2 years with him projected to lead off.

Best thing for his value will be hitting him 2 with Bellinger 3rd. I didn't think that's out of the question either.

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11 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Agree with your statements but disagree with his RBIs increasing from what they were the last 2 years with him projected to lead off.

Best thing for his value will be hitting him 2 with Bellinger 3rd. I didn't think that's out of the question either.

Yeah, that’s fair. The projection system had him at 88 RBIs so I was just trying to be consistent with that model.

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6 hours ago, meh2 said:

I wasn't arguing that the move to LA is an upgrade for Mookie. I was arguing that the move shouldn't cause anyone to significantly downgrade him for this year. Someone earlier had posted that he was no longer a 1st rounder and I have seen several similar comments on Twitter. I was disagreeing with that sentiment.

ATC is becoming my favorite projection system and he currently has Mookie projected for 32 HR, 124 R, 88 RBIs, 19 SB, and a .300 avg in 149 games. I'm not sure if the team context is now much different, but if you were adjusting the projections a bit given the home park downgrade and pitcher hitting in front of him, maybe it gets adjusted to 29 HR, 122 R, 80 RBIs, 19 SB, and a .295 avg. That's still a first rounder and highly valuable. 

Prior to the trade, my 1st round rankings were Acuna, Trout, and Yelich in Tier 1. I had Betts and Bellinger in Tier 2. After that, I had Lindor, Story, and Soto in Tier 3, followed by Turner, Cole, DeGrom, and JRam in Tier 4. After the trade I'm now putting Bellinger ahead of him in his own tier and putting Betts slightly ahead of Lindor/Story/Soto in that tier. But that's as far as he's dropping for me. I've done two drafts already thus far, and at the end of those drafts I fell a bit short of my targeted stolen base totals in both. Steals are hard to come by this year and the 20 or so Mookie gives you, as well as all of the other goodies, are highly valuable.

As far as the lineup concerns, last year the Red Sox were 4th in runs scored with 901, while the Dodgers were 5th with 886. Adding Betts and having Lux for a full season, I definitely wouldn't expect that to get worse. Betts is still a 5 category stud, even if his RBIs aren't elite.

 

His Stolen bases dropped a lot last year.  Why is he a lock for 20 Stolen bases?  The Dodgers don't like to run and it's a lineup stacked with power hitters.  If Stolen bases are the deal breaker, there's very significant risk here.  

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1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

His Stolen bases dropped a lot last year.  Why is he a lock for 20 Stolen bases?  The Dodgers don't like to run and it's a lineup stacked with power hitters.  If Stolen bases are the deal breaker, there's very significant risk here.  

It’s a projection. I never said he was a lock for 20. No one is a lock for 20. His sprint speed was the same last year as the previous 3 years. Prior to last year, his stolen base totals were 21, 26, 26, and 30. He’ll be 27 this year and with what we know about aging curves there’s no reason to expect his speed to drop off. If I’m drafting him, I’m comfortable projecting around 20 or so as I’m constructing my roster throughout the rest of my draft. Go ahead and pass on him if you think he’s a significant risk. I won’t be.

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20 hours ago, meh2 said:

It’s a projection. I never said he was a lock for 20. No one is a lock for 20. His sprint speed was the same last year as the previous 3 years. Prior to last year, his stolen base totals were 21, 26, 26, and 30. He’ll be 27 this year and with what we know about aging curves there’s no reason to expect his speed to drop off. If I’m drafting him, I’m comfortable projecting around 20 or so as I’m constructing my roster throughout the rest of my draft. Go ahead and pass on him if you think he’s a significant risk. I won’t be.

 

Your talking as if the choice is between taking Mookie Betts and some awful player like Randy Grichuk.  

Last year he finished 17/18 overall in Standard 5x5 which was a huge drop.  The only reason the drop wasn't worse was based upon his perfect health and his runs scored.  He bascially had 3 MVP candidates hitting right after him in Devers X and JDM.  Not only that but their OPS's with Mookie on base took a spike and were well over 1.000 IIRC. 

It's very unlikely Mookie scores that many runs again. Even if his SBs do spike closer to career norms and thats a big if, we are looking at a .290/115/27/70/25 player and I don't know if that qualifies him to be the 4th overall pick.

You can factor in his MVP 2018 and 2016 years to be a ceiling but now you can factor in the immense risks behind changing leagues, downgrading parks, seeing new pitchers and learning how to steal off new pitcher/catcher combinations.

 

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7 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

betts is no longer a 1st rounder IMO.  ur insane to take him ahead of bellinger, Story, Lindor etcetc

 

I don't know if I'd call it insanity.  If he got traded to SD and then people took him top 5, now that would have been insanity.

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9 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Even if his SBs do spike closer to career norms and thats a big if, we are looking at a .290/115/27/70/25 player and I don't know if that qualifies him to be the 4th overall pick.

 

I don’t want to go round and round with you so this’ll be my last comment, but if I take Mookie 5th overall and he puts up that line I’ll happily bank those stats all day long. The number of first round picks that bust every year is quite significant. Mookie has shown a very safe floor thus far and a ridiculously high ceiling.

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3 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I don’t want to go round and round with you so this’ll be my last comment, but if I take Mookie 5th overall and he puts up that line I’ll happily bank those stats all day long. The number of first round picks that bust every year is quite significant. Mookie has shown a very safe floor thus far and a ridiculously high ceiling.

 

i agree those numbers are first round material.  id be nervous the SB and avg suffer from that line tho

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Thru his 1st 6 seasons, his 42.0 war, is 7th all time.

This notion that hes soon to hit a big drop, is laughable.

None athletic guys like prince and mo, have been found to decrease the fastest. Athletic players like Betts,  age quite well.

 

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24 minutes ago, bluntbros said:

Mookie Betts Fun Fact: In 2018, he became the first player in Major League history to win the Most Valuable Player, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, batting title, World Series and get caught stealing signs in the same season.

 

Found this on the inter web.

 

fixed

Edited by jfazz23
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On 2/5/2020 at 11:53 AM, Backdoor Slider said:

But I’m not sure why we automatically think his RBI go down because “OMG pitcher right in front of him!” There’s not just one hitter in front of you. How often will that pitcher bunt someone over? Or simply not make the last out?

Its simple. Pitchers don't get on base. RBI are correlated with the OBP of hitters in front of the player in question. Pitchers all have a terrible OBP. Fewer base runners on board means fewer RBI. It doesn't matter what the pitchers do if they are making an out 80% of the time

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43 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Its simple. Pitchers don't get on base. RBI are correlated with the OBP of hitters in front of the player in question. Pitchers all have a terrible OBP. Fewer base runners on board means fewer RBI. It doesn't matter what the pitchers do if they are making an out 80% of the time

I understand that, and said as much. But focusing on just one hitter in front of him is the foolish part. No different than looking for opportunities at runs; do you just look at the one guy hitting behind him? Nope, that’s dumb. We look at the 2-3 hitters behind him. 

So my point, clearly, was that I believe the OBP of Seager, Smith, Lux, SP will be = or > to the OBP of Sandy Leon, Nunez (both under .300) and whoever else was hitting in front of Mookie last season. 
 

*Mookie had exactly 80 RBI the past two seasons, and I’ll bet he equals or surpasses that. 

Edited by Backdoor Slider
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24 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Its simple. Pitchers don't get on base. RBI are correlated with the OBP of hitters in front of the player in question. Pitchers all have a terrible OBP. Fewer base runners on board means fewer RBI. It doesn't matter what the pitchers do if they are making an out 80% of the time

 

It's not a debate, there are less men on base for a lead off hitter. Can't argue that. But I also don't think it's inevitable that Mookie's RBI will drop or drop enough to matter.

 

There are a few NL lead off hitters doing well in RBI totals (Acuña, Rizzo and Blackmon come to mind). Not saying you draft Mookie to be the NL RBI leader or anything but with enough AB's I think a 90 RBI season is possible.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Joc Pederson: 245 Batters on Base in 514 PAs. = ~ 48%

Mookie Betts: 355 Batters on Base in 705 PAs = ~ 50%

 

 

not yuge...

 

edit, but proves it's not a perfect science.

 

As BDS pointed out, game flow, luck, and what other batters (not a P) do matters too.

Edited by Members_Only_76
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4 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Joc Pederson: 245 Batters on Base in 514 PAs.

Mookie Betts: 355 Batters on Base in 705 PAs

 

And I think the acquisition of Mookie pushes better hitters (Seager?) near the bottom of the lineup, along with potential emergence of Lux and Smith. 

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3 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

not yuge...

 

edit, but proves it's not a perfect science.

 

As BDS pointed out, game flow, luck, and what other batters (not a P) do matters too.

Sure, but the odds are objectively worse for an NL leadoff hitter...but its not a ton. Joc had 64 RBIs in 103 games that he started lead-off. I think Mookie was actually slightly unlucky with only getting 80 last year.

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