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Mookie Betts 2020 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

And I think the acquisition of Mookie pushes better hitters (Seager?) near the bottom of the lineup, along with potential emergence of Lux and Smith. 

 

good point.....things that numbers can't speak to.

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Betts batted behind Jackie Bradley Jr for years. The pitchers will be an upgrade.

Who cares about "skills level."  It is not competitive any more as a league.  NBA is run by about a half dozen players.  It sucks because of that. And quit saying people who are against 12 year /

Much as I like to bash Mookie, I have to defend his contracts demands.  He’s a 6-7 war per year avg player and those type of players are just super rare.  Harper is like a 4 War player except that sen

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What a mess.  It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.  I bet the Sox would've been happy to shave a few extra million off their Price contribution in lieu of Graterol before they were crucified by the media/public for the return on this trade.  No way they can save face on what little is left of their dignity without getting another player besides Verdugo.  

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This can't be blamed entirely on the Redsox.  Leaks happen from other owners, players, GMs, Agents...

They probably looked at x-rays and medical documents, and realized the internal damage to Graterol was worse then they assumed.

 

The Twins might have known this, but figured the Sox would still pull the deal if they were somewhat desperate. It is all part of bargaining and trading.

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3 minutes ago, tywalson said:

Surprised they added Jeter Downs to get this done.

Where is the earliest you’d take Mookie given he’s for sure in LA? I think he’s in consideration from 4 on (Acuna, Trout, Yelich). Thoughts?

I think he steals less which makes me nervous. That said, he should be drafted by 6/7 at the latest. 

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8 minutes ago, tywalson said:

Surprised they added Jeter Downs to get this done.

Where is the earliest you’d take Mookie given he’s for sure in LA? I think he’s in consideration from 4 on (Acuna, Trout, Yelich). Thoughts?


Consideration?  1.4.  I Don’t think this move really changes much.  He’ll probably get a slight bump down by drafters but he probably shouldn’t.  

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7 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I think he steals less which makes me nervous. That said, he should be drafted by 6/7 at the latest. 

I’m a bit worried about that as well. .300/25-30hr/8-10 steals isnt really Top 10 material. I do think there’s of course upside for more but he needs to steal some bags in order to keep that high end value. His counting stats could be insane this year though, as they were in Boston too.

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1 hour ago, tywalson said:

Surprised they added Jeter Downs to get this done.

Where is the earliest you’d take Mookie given he’s for sure in LA? I think he’s in consideration from 4 on (Acuna, Trout, Yelich). Thoughts?

Dodgers added both Downs and Conner Wong who is an up and coming catching prospect.

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On 2/13/2020 at 3:31 PM, OaksterDan said:

True, but Acuna hit leadoff all last year and still got 101 RBI.  It will suppress RBI but it's not a death sentence for the stat, especially in an otherwise-stacked offense like the Dodgers'.  

Well Acuna Jr mashed 41 HR last year... betts popped 29 and has a career high of 32. The two are incomparable.

I get what your trying to say but going to be real difficult for Mookie to do any better than his 80 RBI he put up the last 2 seasons of they bat him leadoff.

 

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On 2/13/2020 at 3:31 PM, OaksterDan said:

True, but Acuna hit leadoff all last year and still got 101 RBI.  It will suppress RBI but it's not a death sentence for the stat, especially in an otherwise-stacked offense like the Dodgers'.  

 

Actually Acuna only led off 118 games (78 RBI) and hit 4th for 36 games (21 RBI). It doesn't change your overall point because if you extrapolate the lead off numbers over the same total games, he actually finishes at 103. Yes, Acuna was slightly more efficient driving in runs from the 1 spot than he was 4. SSS, but it sort of furthers the point that lead off could still yield a solid RBI total.

I just messed around with the Fangraphs Splits Tool:

Joc Pederson had 94 PA with Runners in Scoring Position in 107 games leading off in 2019.

Mookie Betts had 93 PA with Runners in Scoring Position in 102 games leading off in 2019.

Honestly, the bigger concern might just be total PA.

Joc had 441 PA in 107 games leading off

Mookie had 485 PA in 102 games leading off

LA may be as much as a 10% reduction in total plate appearances.

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10 hours ago, oswald737 said:

 

Actually Acuna only led off 118 games (78 RBI) and hit 4th for 36 games (21 RBI). It doesn't change your overall point because if you extrapolate the lead off numbers over the same total games, he actually finishes at 103. Yes, Acuna was slightly more efficient driving in runs from the 1 spot than he was 4. SSS, but it sort of furthers the point that lead off could still yield a solid RBI total.

I just messed around with the Fangraphs Splits Tool:

Joc Pederson had 94 PA with Runners in Scoring Position in 107 games leading off in 2019.

Mookie Betts had 93 PA with Runners in Scoring Position in 102 games leading off in 2019.

Honestly, the bigger concern might just be total PA.

Joc had 441 PA in 107 games leading off

Mookie had 485 PA in 102 games leading off

LA may be as much as a 10% reduction in total plate appearances.

 

That's a really good point.  Seems like a sizeable difference.  Could part of that be that LA pinch-hit for Joc vs lefties, which wouldn't happen to Mookie?  Might make up for at least some of that difference.  

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9 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

didnt blackmon hit leadoff for the majoirty of his career? rbi totals 58, 82, 104, 70, 86.

i find it hard to project for than 80 rbis for anyone hitting leadoff in NL. possible sure.

 

I think, at the time, that 104 was a record for NL leadoff hitters.  I think Blackmon was the only NL player in history to drive in more than 100.

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15 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

 

That's a really good point.  Seems like a sizeable difference.  Could part of that be that LA pinch-hit for Joc vs lefties, which wouldn't happen to Mookie?  Might make up for at least some of that difference.  

 

Actually, you are correct. I re-ran the report for all PA for lead off hitters: Boston 701 (2nd in MLB to ATL). LAD: 692 (7th). Interestingly, for all lead off hitters, Boston had 144 PA (6th in MLB) with runners in scoring position. LAD had 148 (2nd in MLB). That would suggest that Mookie would see very team specific opportunity difference. Parks will still matter (NL West parks generally are worse for hitting vs. AL East parks).

 

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On 1/29/2020 at 12:36 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Right now speculation on his performance is tied into where he may play this year.  Boston?  San Diego?  LA Dodgers?  Those three seem to be the only options mentioned these days.

For what it is worth this was reported tonight on Boston sports stations during the late night news citing well known local sports commentator and former Red Sox player Lou Merloni as the source.  That Boston tried to extend Mookie in the off season again and offered 10 years and 300 million dollars.  He wanted 12 years and 420 million instead.  Crazy crazy contract and super long term commitment.  And that was Boston's offer.  Mookie's was even worse.  So no wonder the Red Sox are seriously trying to trade him this year and get something, anything, in return now.  Good luck to the team that does sign him next season to a massive contract.  Hope it isn't my Red Sox.

 

Ok. This was never clarified to me until just now. That 10 Year/300 offer you all were talking about  was BEFORE arb 2.

The offer was really just 8/253M in free agent commitments.(47M earned in 2 ARB years) Betts turned down what Rendon got the following year. Not what Machado got in that same off-season. Which makes sense if he thinks he's as good of player as Machado.

So his counter ended up being 10 Years/370 MIL. Which was still too high, but that's how negotiations work. You over-ask at first. All Betts need to do is get 252M to be correct in re-buffing the Red Sox offer.

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