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Mookie Betts 2020 Outlook


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18 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

The Red Sox are doing great, the fact that Devers and Boegarts (both studs) are under contract for a few more years for cheap is all that matters.  Let's not forget  that because David Price opted out, they don't have to pay him 16 million a year to play for another team, that will only be the following 2 years.  I'm kind of jealous of their success this year.

 

Yeah let's just hope they don't cheat to win anymore lol

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Betts batted behind Jackie Bradley Jr for years. The pitchers will be an upgrade.

Who cares about "skills level."  It is not competitive any more as a league.  NBA is run by about a half dozen players.  It sucks because of that. And quit saying people who are against 12 year /

Much as I like to bash Mookie, I have to defend his contracts demands.  He’s a 6-7 war per year avg player and those type of players are just super rare.  Harper is like a 4 War player except that sen

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http://www.freezestats.com/2020/02/home-run-park-factors-pt-3-conversion-to-hrpf-a-plus-metric/

 

Mookie Betts (OF – LAD) formerly with the Red Sox

Park (Team) LF HRPF+ CF HRPF+ RF HRF+
Fenway Park (BOS) 96 68 75
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 98 150 95

I don’t think people realize how much of a boost Betts could see in terms of his power with the move the LA. It’s important to note that while the left field HRPF+ is essentially the same in each park they play differently. Fenway allows more non-barreled home runs to left field (61 HR to 38 HR) where Dodger Stadium has a higher HR/BRL% (74% to 67.2%). That’s the Green Monster at play. The barreled balls with low launch angles smack off the high wall but balls hit at high launch angles that don’t qualify as barrels sneak over the monster. Right field is also more favorable but Betts does not have good power to right field so I don’t expect a huge boost in power production there.

Enough about left field, let’s talk about where Betts is really going to benefit. He’s going from Fenway where the HRPF+ was 38% below league-average to Dodger Stadium that plays 51% better than league-average to CF! Let’s try to quantify this. Betts has increased his fly ball% to centerfield each of the last five years (36.8% to 42.1%). I fully expect Betts, who has an elite hit tool to take advantage of centerfield. His HR/FB% to centerfield over the last three seasons is about 50% below the league average. However, when looking at his average exit velocity and average fly ball distance on fly balls to center, he falls in the top 30% of the league. That’s Fenway Park holding him back. Based on this information, I’d expect Betts to finish with a better than league average HR/FB% to center in 2020. To give some context, I’d expect somewhere between four and six more home runs to centerfield in 2020. 

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I'm glad I don't own any shares of Mookie Bettis this year.  [...] I could not possibly have been more disappointed in Betts last year.  If Betts had just performed at his 3 year averages, I would have won the league.

Now that Betts is moving to a much worse hitters park and has the nice big fat contact, along with the likelihood that the stolen bases will never come back, I'm totally out on Betts this year, given that his ADP barely dropped at all from last year.  He'll still likely be a big contributor in runs scored, but overall I don't think he'll be close to first round production.  If he bounces back to his 2016-2018 level, he'll be someone else's success story, not mine. 

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10 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

I'm glad I don't own any shares of Mookie Bettis this year.  [...] I could not possibly have been more disappointed in Betts last year.  If Betts had just performed at his 3 year averages, I would have won the league.

Now that Betts is moving to a much worse hitters park and has the nice big fat contact, along with the likelihood that the stolen bases will never come back, I'm totally out on Betts this year, given that his ADP barely dropped at all from last year.  He'll still likely be a big contributor in runs scored, but overall I don't think he'll be close to first round production.  If he bounces back to his 2016-2018 level, he'll be someone else's success story, not mine. 

I don’t think you read the post directly above yours. All parks aren’t equal for all hitters.

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21 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I don’t think you read the post directly above yours. All parks aren’t equal for all hitters.

 

It's true Fenway's not a great place for HR, but it is a phenomenal place for batting average and runs because of the Green Monster. 

Going into this year for his career, Betts had 

.319 BA, 65 HR, 318 R, 253 RBI in 394 career games at Fenway

.285 BA, 74 HR, 293 R, 217 RBI in 398 career road games

So, yes, I could see HRs going up slightly for him at Dodger Stadium, but I think runs, RBIs, and especially batting average will get worse without Fenway.  Also I don't see the 25-30 stolen bases he used to get prior to last year coming back either.  Lastly, aside from obviously Coors Field (where the Dodgers only play 4 games), there's a ton of pitcher's park in the NL West and AL West overall where he'll be playing all his games this year.

Personally, I don't expect Betts to be a top 20 fantasy player this year, and it wouldn't shock me if he's not top 40 either..  If Betts does end up being a top 20 player, I'll definitely come back here and admit I was wrong at the end of the year, but that's the way I feel after owning Bettis last year.

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3 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

It's true Fenway's not a great place for HR, but it is a phenomenal place for batting average and runs because of the Green Monster. 

Going into this year for his career, Betts had 

.319 BA, 65 HR, 318 R, 253 RBI in 394 career games at Fenway

.285 BA, 74 HR, 293 R, 217 RBI in 398 career road games

So, yes, I could see HRs going up slightly for him at Dodger Stadium, but I think runs, RBIs, and especially batting average will get worse without Fenway.  Also I don't see the 25-30 stolen bases he used to get prior to last year coming back either.  Lastly, aside from obviously Coors Field (where the Dodgers only play 4 games), there's a ton of pitcher's park in the NL West and AL West overall where he'll be playing all his games this year.

Personally, I don't expect Betts to be a top 20 fantasy player this year, and it wouldn't shock me if he's not top 40 either..  If Betts does end up being a top 20 player, I'll definitely come back here and admit I was wrong at the end of the year, but that's the way I feel after owning Bettis last year.

Every player rater I see from 2019 says he was a top 15 player last season. If you were disappointed with .295/29/16 and 135 runs, your expectations were the problem, not the player. But we can agree to disagree. 

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9 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Every player rater I see from 2019 says he was a top 15 player last season. If you were disappointed with .295/29/16 and 135 runs, your expectations were the problem, not the player. But we can agree to disagree. 

He was only the fourth best hitter on the Sox last year and I doubt the other three were all in the top 14.

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8 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Every player rater I see from 2019 says he was a top 15 player last season. If you were disappointed with .295/29/16 and 135 runs, your expectations were the problem, not the player. But we can agree to disagree. 

 

Well, I admit that's true to some extent.  At the time I drafted Mookie at #2 in my money league last year, I was very happy to have finally gotten an early pick, thinking that I was getting a very safe 5-cat player who was in a great lineup in a great hitter's park.and who had been the #1 overall ranked player two of the past three years.  While Mookie's BA, HR (given the HR spike across baseball), and RBI were slightly disappointing, what really hurt his value last was the sudden drop in stolen bases from the 25 to 30 range to 16 last year.

In my 5x5 Yahoo league, Betts finished exactly as the #15 ranked player last year.  I don't think the stolen bases are coming back to make him a first round player again, and I think the move from Fenway Park to Dodger Stadium will be enough to push him outside the top 20.  It might help him slightly in HRs, but I think it will hurt him in R, RBI, and especially BA.  Also, when playing for the Red Sox, Betts got to play a lot of divisional road games in hitter's parks in the AL East with the Trop being the only pitcher's park in the division.  Other than Coors Field (where the Dodgers play only 4 games), there are a ton of pitcher's parks in the NL West and the AL West where the Dodgers will be playing all their games this year.  For example, look at how Machado has done in the NL West (both with the Dodgers and Padres), compared to what he did in the AL East.

That's just my opinion.  Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong, and I will come back and admit when I'm wrong.  Last year, I was certainly wrong about Xander Bogaerts not being worth a top 35 pick.  I came back to his page and ate crow and admitted I was wrong at the end of the year.  On the flip side, I was right about Aaron Nola not being worth a top 35 pick.  People killed me on his page last year when at the beginning of the year, I said that his 2018 breakout was not supported by advanced metrics and I bet that his ERA would bounce back up over 3.30.  Those people were absolutely nowhere to be found by the end of the year when Nola posted a 3.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

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On 7/26/2020 at 7:40 AM, FootballFan101 said:

 

Well, I admit that's true to some extent.  At the time I drafted Mookie at #2 in my money league last year, I was very happy to have finally gotten an early pick, thinking that I was getting a very safe 5-cat player who was in a great lineup in a great hitter's park.and who had been the #1 overall ranked player two of the past three years.  While Mookie's BA, HR (given the HR spike across baseball), and RBI were slightly disappointing, what really hurt his value last was the sudden drop in stolen bases from the 25 to 30 range to 16 last year.

In my 5x5 Yahoo league, Betts finished exactly as the #15 ranked player last year.  I don't think the stolen bases are coming back to make him a first round player again, and I think the move from Fenway Park to Dodger Stadium will be enough to push him outside the top 20.  It might help him slightly in HRs, but I think it will hurt him in R, RBI, and especially BA.  Also, when playing for the Red Sox, Betts got to play a lot of divisional road games in hitter's parks in the AL East with the Trop being the only pitcher's park in the division.  Other than Coors Field (where the Dodgers play only 4 games), there are a ton of pitcher's parks in the NL West and the AL West where the Dodgers will be playing all their games this year.  For example, look at how Machado has done in the NL West (both with the Dodgers and Padres), compared to what he did in the AL East.

That's just my opinion.  Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong, and I will come back and admit when I'm wrong.  Last year, I was certainly wrong about Xander Bogaerts not being worth a top 35 pick.  I came back to his page and ate crow and admitted I was wrong at the end of the year.  On the flip side, I was right about Aaron Nola not being worth a top 35 pick.  People killed me on his page last year when at the beginning of the year, I said that his 2018 breakout was not supported by advanced metrics and I bet that his ERA would bounce back up over 3.30.  Those people were absolutely nowhere to be found by the end of the year when Nola posted a 3.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.


15th? I seem to remember it being a bit higher but honestly can’t find 2019 in yahoo completed rankings.

 

But anyways yeah he finished 15th but what saved him from a disastrous fallback was a) he stayed almost completely healthy all year and b) He scored a ridiculous amount of runs. 135.. only a handful of players in the past 20 years have scored as many runs in a season. That stat came because 3 of the best hitters in baseball batted after him in Devers Bogaerts and JDM. Not only that but those guys hit even better with runners on base.

  Munci -Belly and Turner are pretty good but I don’t think they can do what he had in Boston.

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On 8/4/2020 at 1:21 AM, KingJoffrey said:


15th? I seem to remember it being a bit higher but honestly can’t find 2019 in yahoo completed rankings.

 

But anyways yeah he finished 15th but what saved him from a disastrous fallback was a) he stayed almost completely healthy all year and b) He scored a ridiculous amount of runs. 135.. only a handful of players in the past 20 years have scored as many runs in a season. That stat came because 3 of the best hitters in baseball batted after him in Devers Bogaerts and JDM. Not only that but those guys hit even better with runners on base.

  Munci -Belly and Turner are pretty good but I don’t think they can do what he had in Boston.

 

Well, the fact that the Red Sox had an elite lineup to give him lots of runs scored was something that was expected before the season, and that lineup was a big part of why his ADP was #2 last year.  Also, up until this year at least, Mookie's always been very durable, so him staying healthy last year wasn't unexpected either.  What was unexpected was his stolen bases suddenly going away.

I do agree with you that Muncy, Bellinger, and Turner are a step down from Devers, Bogaerts, and JDM.  Also going from Fenway Park to Dodger Stadium is a step down.  (Fenway is a very unique park because of the Green Monster - not great for HRs but phenomenal for batting average, runs, and RBI).  Combine that with the fact that Mookie's ADP only dropped from #2 to #4 even though the stolen bases are likely never coming back, and it definitely made me want no part of Mookie this year.

Obviously now with the injury, he's not going to return anything near ADP value, but even before the injury, I was not expecting a top 20 fantasy season from Mookie and I thought it was more likely than not that he would finish outside the top 40.

 

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54 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Well, the fact that the Red Sox had an elite lineup to give him lots of runs scored was something that was expected before the season, and that lineup was a big part of why his ADP was #2 last year.  Also, up until this year at least, Mookie's always been very durable, so him staying healthy last year wasn't unexpected either.  What was unexpected was his stolen bases suddenly going away.

I do agree with you that Muncy, Bellinger, and Turner are a step down from Devers, Bogaerts, and JDM.  Also going from Fenway Park to Dodger Stadium is a step down.  (Fenway is a very unique park because of the Green Monster - not great for HRs but phenomenal for batting average, runs, and RBI).  Combine that with the fact that Mookie's ADP only dropped from #2 to #4 even though the stolen bases are likely never coming back, and it definitely made me want no part of Mookie this year.

Obviously now with the injury, he's not going to return anything near ADP value, but even before the injury, I was not expecting a top 20 fantasy season from Mookie and I thought it was more likely than not that he would finish outside the top 40.

 

 

The lineup around him is as good as it was in Boston (now that Nl has a dh) and Dodger Stadium is no a downgrade in park, might actually be an upgrade for him personally as was linker with an article in this thread somewhere within the last 2 weeks.

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7 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

The lineup around him is as good as it was in Boston (now that Nl has a dh) and Dodger Stadium is no a downgrade in park, might actually be an upgrade for him personally as was linker with an article in this thread somewhere within the last 2 weeks.

 

I assume you are referring to the post from July 23rd.  That post only compared Fenway and Dodger Stadium in terms of homeruns.

For a more complete picture, look at the MLB park factors for the past decade.  Fenway consistently ranks well above Dodger Stadium.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2019

It's true Fenway's not a great place for HR, but it is a phenomenal place for batting average and runs because of the Green Monster. (All you have to do is a medium depth fly ball to left field that would be a routine warning track out at most stadiums and it's a double off the Monster at Fenway)

Going into this year for his career, Betts had 

.319 BA, 65 HR, 318 R, 253 RBI in 394 career games at Fenway

.285 BA, 74 HR, 293 R, 217 RBI in 398 career road games

So, yes, I could see HRs going up slightly for him at Dodger Stadium, but I think runs, RBIs, and especially batting average will get worse without Fenway.  Also I don't see the 25-30 stolen bases he used to get prior to last year coming back either.  Lastly, aside from obviously Coors Field (where the Dodgers only play 4 games), there's a ton of pitcher's park in the NL West and AL West overall where he'll be playing all his games this year.

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47 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I assume you are referring to the post from July 23rd.  That post only compared Fenway and Dodger Stadium in terms of homeruns.

For a more complete picture, look at the MLB park factors for the past decade.  Fenway consistently ranks well above Dodger Stadium.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2019

It's true Fenway's not a great place for HR, but it is a phenomenal place for batting average and runs because of the Green Monster. (All you have to do is a medium depth fly ball to left field that would be a routine warning track out at most stadiums and it's a double off the Monster at Fenway)

Going into this year for his career, Betts had 

.319 BA, 65 HR, 318 R, 253 RBI in 394 career games at Fenway

.285 BA, 74 HR, 293 R, 217 RBI in 398 career road games

So, yes, I could see HRs going up slightly for him at Dodger Stadium, but I think runs, RBIs, and especially batting average will get worse without Fenway.  Also I don't see the 25-30 stolen bases he used to get prior to last year coming back either.  Lastly, aside from obviously Coors Field (where the Dodgers only play 4 games), there's a ton of pitcher's park in the NL West and AL West overall where he'll be playing all his games this year.

Just to add to this, if you look at Betts spray charts on Fangraphs it's pretty clear he's a pull hitter so there's no doubt he benefited quite a bit from the Green Monster. I'm expecting a small down tick in batting average because of this, but that's about it. Also, in regards to the SBs, that has more to do with team/managerial strategy than it does skill set. He's still relatively young and it doesn't seem like he's lost a step. I feel like the Dodgers might be more of the type of teams that tries to manufacture runs than bank on the long ball. They have great hitters in that lineup, but Bellinger and Muncy are their only real mashers.

 

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

They have great hitters in that lineup, but Bellinger and Muncy are their only real mashers.

 

 

WRC+ last 3 years

Rafael Devers 110 90 132

Xandrer 95 133 141

Hitters after Muncy/Bellinger

Turner 151 154 132

Joc 100 126 127

And I feel like Corey Seager is finally over his injuries and a much better hitter than Joc.  Had a WRC above 125 his first 3 years and having a monster year so far.

Pollock maybe too.  Dodgers have a very dangerous lineup

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12 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Obviously now with the injury, he's not going to return anything near ADP value, but even before the injury, I was not expecting a top 20 fantasy season from Mookie and I thought it was more likely than not that he would finish outside the top 40.

 

 

If Mookie comes back healthy tomorrow and finishes outside the top 40 I'll eat my shoe.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

WRC+ last 3 years

Rafael Devers 110 90 132

Xandrer 95 133 141

Hitters after Muncy/Bellinger

Turner 151 154 132

Joc 100 126 127

And I feel like Corey Seager is finally over his injuries and a much better hitter than Joc.  Had a WRC above 125 his first 3 years and having a monster year so far.

Pollock maybe too.  Dodgers have a very dangerous lineup

 

By "mashers" I meant 30 plus HR potential guys. Seager, Turner, and Pollock are just good hitters (with less power). That was my point about the Dodgers maybe letting Mookie run more, instead of playing Earl Weaver ball. And I didn't mention Pederson because he's a very flawed hitter and has no business playing every day. 

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17 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

By "mashers" I meant 30 plus HR potential guys. Seager, Turner, and Pollock are just good hitters (with less power). That was my point about the Dodgers maybe letting Mookie run more, instead of playing Earl Weaver ball. And I didn't mention Pederson because he's a very flawed hitter and has no business playing every day. 


Joc crushes righties. Wrc + and woba are  a much better indicator of good hitters in a lineup than looking at hr totals like it’s a fantasy league. 

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Why are you using WRC? You’re right those Dodgers would be even better at Fenway but we are not talking about Fenway. 
 

Why are you using 3 year averages ? as it’s clear Devers was struggling early and turned a corner last year as did Bogaerts.

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14 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Why are you using WRC? You’re right those Dodgers would be even better at Fenway but we are not talking about Fenway. 
 

Why are you using 3 year averages ? as it’s clear Devers was struggling early and turned a corner last year as did Bogaerts.

 

Just thought it was a good way to measure, last 3 years, seems fair? JD Martinez is older and has back problems now, I didn't adjust for that either. Just casually saying the Red Sox were a better lineup for Mookie is silly.  Justin Turner has been an amazing real life hitter since he's been a Dodger. He's one of the best postseason hitters of all time, as funny as that is. So to say the Dodgers only have Muncy and Bellinger in the lineup that are on par with the Red Sox hitters is silly. Take Mookie out of the Dodgers right now, they have a much better lineup than the Red Sox right now.  They also have the best hitting prospect of the two teams in Lux.  Once the NL got the DH, the difference between Boston and LA is pretty negligible for Mookie, and I think better personally, even if he never has a better year than his likely peak year. 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Just thought it was a good way to measure, last 3 years, seems fair? JD Martinez is older and has back problems now, I didn't adjust for that either. Just casually saying the Red Sox were a better lineup for Mookie is silly.  Justin Turner has been an amazing real life hitter since he's been a Dodger. He's one of the best postseason hitters of all time, as funny as that is. So to say the Dodgers only have Muncy and Bellinger in the lineup that are on par with the Red Sox hitters is silly. Take Mookie out of the Dodgers right now, they have a much better lineup than the Red Sox right now.  They also have the best hitting prospect of the two teams in Lux.  Once the NL got the DH, the difference between Boston and LA is pretty negligible for Mookie, and I think better personally, even if he never has a better year than his likely peak year. 

 

betts is overrated bro

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