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Mookie Betts 2020 Outlook


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I'm not sure if this is too off topic (mods feel free to move), but for all the Betts naysayers, what keepers would you take over him? Give me a list of the players you're confident will be better than him over the next 5 - 8 years. 

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I'm not sure if this is too off topic (mods feel free to move), but for all the Betts naysayers, what keepers would you take over him? Give me a list of the players you're confident will be better than him over the next 5 - 8 years. 

I think there’s quite a few but he’s still near the top. I have Acuña, Trout, Soto, Tatis, Bellinger, Lindor, Yelich over him for sure. Could be a few more too like Arenado up there in contention. I think as mentioned in this thread earlier, if he stops running much in LA his value isn’t Top 10, it’s more Top 40. 

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3 minutes ago, tywalson said:

I think there’s quite a few but he’s still near the top. I have Acuña, Trout, Soto, Tatis, Bellinger, Lindor, Yelich over him for sure. Could be a few more too like Arenado up there in contention. I think as mentioned in this thread earlier, if he stops running much in LA his value isn’t Top 10, it’s more Top 40. 

 

I personally wouldn't take Lindor or Bellinger over him. 

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3 hours ago, tywalson said:

I think there’s quite a few but he’s still near the top. I have Acuña, Trout, Soto, Tatis, Bellinger, Lindor, Yelich over him for sure. Could be a few more too like Arenado up there in contention. I think as mentioned in this thread earlier, if he stops running much in LA his value isn’t Top 10, it’s more Top 40. 

 

Absolute nonsense

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All those guys listed besides maybe Acuna won't be stealing much in a few years either.  I don't even really understand the point either. You've named 6-7 guys think will be better than Betts over the next 5-8 years. That's not a ton of people. All of them are elite. 

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8 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Tatis will for sure be stealing.

I like Tatis. I have shares. Having a feeling that Tatis is better to own going forward seems fine. Doesn't make Mookie and lesser. [...] I'm still not naive enough to ignore a 423 BABIP  with a 35% k rate.

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

All those guys listed besides maybe Acuna won't be stealing much in a few years either.  I don't even really understand the point either. You've named 6-7 guys think will be better than Betts over the next 5-8 years. That's not a ton of people. All of them are elite. 

I also prefaced it by saying I think he’s still near the top. In fact, I own him in my high dollar dynasty and traded Vlad + Glasnow to acquire him last year. I just don’t think he will be Top 10 if he isn’t running. 

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21 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I like Tatis. I have shares. Having a feeling that Tatis is better to own going forward seems fine. Doesn't make Mookie and lesser. [...] I'm still not naive enough to ignore a 423 BABIP  with a 35% k rate.


But if you’re in a keeper league and someone offered you Tatis for Betts, you wouldn’t have to stop to consider it? Even if you needed steals or needed a Shortstop?

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1 minute ago, KingJoffrey said:


But if you’re in a keeper league and someone offered you Tatis for Betts, you wouldn’t have to stop to consider it? Even if you needed steals or needed a Shortstop?


I would consider it yes. I don’t think it’s crazy to prefer Tatis , maybe I would. I think they are both elite dynasty assets. 

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https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2020/8/10/21362068/mlb-babip-low-2020-season

 

 

 

The dimensions of Dodger Stadium were already more favorable to Mookie as a hitter personally to him. If Fenway is using humidors for their balls now, his value kind of got saved with the trade, the NL DH, and the humidor.

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On 7/23/2020 at 1:42 PM, brockpapersizer said:

http://www.freezestats.com/2020/02/home-run-park-factors-pt-3-conversion-to-hrpf-a-plus-metric/

 

Mookie Betts (OF – LAD) formerly with the Red Sox

Park (Team) LF HRPF+ CF HRPF+ RF HRF+
Fenway Park (BOS) 96 68 75
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 98 150 95

I don’t think people realize how much of a boost Betts could see in terms of his power with the move the LA. It’s important to note that while the left field HRPF+ is essentially the same in each park they play differently. Fenway allows more non-barreled home runs to left field (61 HR to 38 HR) where Dodger Stadium has a higher HR/BRL% (74% to 67.2%). That’s the Green Monster at play. The barreled balls with low launch angles smack off the high wall but balls hit at high launch angles that don’t qualify as barrels sneak over the monster. Right field is also more favorable but Betts does not have good power to right field so I don’t expect a huge boost in power production there.

Enough about left field, let’s talk about where Betts is really going to benefit. He’s going from Fenway where the HRPF+ was 38% below league-average to Dodger Stadium that plays 51% better than league-average to CF! Let’s try to quantify this. Betts has increased his fly ball% to centerfield each of the last five years (36.8% to 42.1%). I fully expect Betts, who has an elite hit tool to take advantage of centerfield. His HR/FB% to centerfield over the last three seasons is about 50% below the league average. However, when looking at his average exit velocity and average fly ball distance on fly balls to center, he falls in the top 30% of the league. That’s Fenway Park holding him back. Based on this information, I’d expect Betts to finish with a better than league average HR/FB% to center in 2020. To give some context, I’d expect somewhere between four and six more home runs to centerfield in 2020. 


A lot of these home runs are going exactly where this article said he could pick them up. The park might legit be an upgrade.

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10 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:


A lot of these home runs are going exactly where this article said he could pick them up. The park might legit be an upgrade.

That article is very impressive analysis. That wasn’t a common opinion when that article was written, and I remember most people saying that the move to LA was a downgrade, from a park perspective. 

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From a baseball purist's perspective, is there a more appealing player in baseball right now than Mookie Betts? Trout's great, but he has zero personality. Mookie just seems like a good and completely unpretentious dude. And now that he's on more of a neutral team it's so easy to root for him. I'm happy to see him continue to succeed, especially now that I don't have to deal with the moral dilemma of having to inadvertently root for the Red Sox. 

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

From a baseball purist's perspective, is there a more appealing player in baseball right now than Mookie Betts? Trout's great, but he has zero personality. Mookie just seems like a good and completely unpretentious dude. And now that he's on more of a neutral team it's so easy to root for him. I'm happy to see him continue to succeed, especially now that I don't have to deal with the moral dilemma of having to inadvertently root for the Red Sox. 


Love Mookie....hate, hate, hate, the friggen Dodgers.

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19 minutes ago, bluntbros said:


Love Mookie....hate, hate, hate, the friggen Dodgers.

 

Not to stray too far off topic, but I don't think the Dodgers are nearly as hated as the Red Sox. And the whole cheating scandal just added gas to the flame. I'd say the Red Sox / Yankees are tied for the most hated (team plus fan base), while the Astros are probably the most hated team (right now). I honestly don't mind any of the players on the Dodgers, except maybe Pederson. He seems like a grade A arrogant tool, which is ironic considering he can't hit lefties. 

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2 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Not to stray too far off topic, but I don't think the Dodgers are nearly as hated as the Red Sox. And the whole cheating scandal just added gas to the flame. I'd say the Red Sox / Yankees are tied for the most hated (team plus fan base), while the Astros are probably the most hated team (right now). I honestly don't mind any of the players on the Dodgers, except maybe Pederson. He seems like a grade A arrogant tool, which is ironic considering he can't hit lefties. 

 

that entirely depends on what coast you are on. of course you will think the Red Sox are more hated when you're in Baltimore. the entire West Coast, Arizona included, hates the Dodgers. that's a lot of people.

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3 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

From a baseball purist's perspective, is there a more appealing player in baseball right now than Mookie Betts? Trout's great, but he has zero personality. Mookie just seems like a good and completely unpretentious dude. And now that he's on more of a neutral team it's so easy to root for him. I'm happy to see him continue to succeed, especially now that I don't have to deal with the moral dilemma of having to inadvertently root for the Red Sox. 

 

Mike Trout or Juan Soto

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27 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

what? 10 game sample size vs one, if not the best baseball player?  u crazy soto so hot right now.

Right now? Soto, a very good player, but I know Trout, and Soto is no Trout,  How many MVP's does Soto have?

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1 hour ago, Topgun said:

Right now? Soto, a very good player, but I know Trout, and Soto is no Trout,  How many MVP's does Soto have?

 

Trout in this first two complete seasons had zero MVP awards...  The same with Soto...

You can't compare MVP awards with someone that has played eight complete seasons to two seasons...

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4 hours ago, posty said:

 

Trout in this first two complete seasons had zero MVP awards...  The same with Soto...

You can't compare MVP awards with someone that has played eight complete seasons to two seasons...

I think he finished as the 6th rated OF last year, might move up a spot or 2 in 2020, will see, he's a special talent.

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