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Eloy Jimenez 2020 Outlook


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11 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I think this guy is highly overrated.  Sue me.  Xstats aren’t a big fan, and streaky players kill you in HTH.  He’s not going to get you SB. So your drafting him in the 6th round for what? 35 HR and 265 xBA?  With most of them coming in a clump? I know he had a good end of season but lord.  
 

edit: not to mention in any league other than standard 5x5 It’s even worse because of his terrible plate discipline 
 

 

This is that kind of post that people save, waiting to post it later if the player is on a hot streak. I see your point though.

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On 1/30/2020 at 7:22 AM, MSkibisky said:

 

Your post would make sense if we weren't talking about a 24 year old 6'4" 230lb rookie who just hit 31 homeruns in 122 games. The guy had a great rookie season, I could care less if all his HR's came in one month or spread out over the entire season, the kid raked and surely knows how to hit the ball. No, you're not drafting him for speed or OBP (yet). You're essentially getting near-Yordan production out of a guy that can play OF... not seeing the "stop the presses" level of concern here guys..

 

On 1/30/2020 at 7:22 AM, MSkibisky said:

 

Your post would make sense if we weren't talking about a 24 year old 6'4" 230lb rookie who just hit 31 homeruns in 122 games. The guy had a great rookie season, I could care less if all his HR's came in one month or spread out over the entire season, the kid raked and surely knows how to hit the ball. No, you're not drafting him for speed or OBP (yet). You're essentially getting near-Yordan production out of a guy that can play OF... not seeing the "stop the presses" level of concern here guys..

 

On 1/29/2020 at 7:23 AM, MSkibisky said:

Can't believe there wasn't already a thread on him yet. Eloy is my #1 buy in for 2020. Guy's projections are hovering around 30/90/.280 and Rotoworld has him ranked somewhere in the 9th(ish) round. Sure..juiced ball..blah blah blah.. but the fact is that he is a 24 year old 6'4" power hitting OF and OF is getting more and more shallow. I will absolutely be buying high on him and taking my lock for 30hr+ 85rbi+ .275+ to the bank.

Ok I’m sorry dude I don’t post much but where are you getting this guy is 24 do you even look this stuff up before repeating it once not twice
 

22 last year 23 this year

 

but fair points

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1 hour ago, soxallday6 said:

 

 

Ok I’m sorry dude I don’t post much but where are you getting this guy is 24 do you even look this stuff up before repeating it once not twice
 

22 last year 23 this year

 

but fair points

Okay so my age on him was off by a year. Sorry to get you so offended by that crucial misrepresentation of data. 🤣

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1 hour ago, MSkibisky said:

Okay so my age on him was off by a year. Sorry to get you so offended by that crucial misrepresentation of data. 🤣

I’m not offended at all ..that’s what’s wrong with people they hate when they’re wrong I even said good points but you get all catty when I point that out smh 

 

but if you are too lazy to get something that simple right ....what makes the rest of your opinion accurate since we are going there 

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I don’t really think someone’s opinion gets invalidated because they missed an age.

Back on topic, I still think this guy is being over drafted.  I guess in a STANDARD 5x5 league you can chase the upside but surely there are other people that contribute HR alone later in the draft.

Edited by Fbaseballgod
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On 1/31/2020 at 1:54 PM, soxallday6 said:

I’m not offended at all ..that’s what’s wrong with people they hate when they’re wrong I even said good points but you get all catty when I point that out smh 

 

but if you are too lazy to get something that simple right ....what makes the rest of your opinion accurate since we are going there 

Jeez.. you get his age off by one year and all the new guys get their tush's in a tussle 🤣

 

 

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On 2/3/2020 at 7:16 AM, MSkibisky said:

Jeez.. you get his age off by one year and all the new guys get their tush's in a tussle 🤣

 

 

I’m not mad or upset it just surprising if you are using stats to look the stuff you are speaking up his age is literally right there 

 

yes there is a difference between a 22 yo and 23 yo and a 24 yo ..surprise  

 

carry on

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  • 2 weeks later...

Was he streaky? Yes he was. But he was also dealing with an ankle injury during his first full season in the majors. I’m not trying to be the glass-half-full guy but we can also not deny the changes after the ASB.

He didn’t have a single month with a 20+ LD% before the ASB but had two of them after the break. He cut down his K% from 28,7% to 24,5%. Actually, from July on his K% was 24,0/24,6/24,3. It wasn’t just a case of getting hot or lucky, he also made changes at the plate. That’s what young players should be doing. It’s what Acuna did during his rookie season.

Considering how plate discipline was never a red flag with him in the minors, I expect him to cut down on his K% while also slightly improving his BB%. He has shown he has the tools to hit for power while also hitting for a solid LD%. Yes, his xBA was .268 but it also means he doesn’t need to make impossible adjustments to improve his xBA to .280. We’re not talking about Joey Gallo BA/xBA/K% territory here. The main reason scouts loved him was his ability to hit for good avg, a solid plate discipline and power. It took Devers two years to put it all together and he was also a good average/good plate discipline/power prospect in the minors. I’m not implying Jimenez is going to be the next Devers but guess what Devers’ K% was two years ago? 24,6%. Last year he improved to 17,0%. So it’s crazy to give up on a young player after one season, especially the ones who have such specific skills. You either believe in them or you don’t.

I’ll leave it others to decide if he should be drafted as high as he is being drafted but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he puts up a .280/40 HR season this season. 

Edited by Sine_cera
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I think a lot of his value will be where he bats in that lineup. If he's hitting #4 behind Anderson or Madrigal/Yoan/Abreu, and ahead of Grandal/EE/Robert, look out. Can't pitch around him like they did last year. Lots of RBI oppos. Also will come home on a lot of round-trippers. So the ever-elusive 100-300-40-100 season could be in play as long as he's healthy. And that really doesn't seem too far-fetched. I wouldn't ever call it a ceiling given his power. Dude could hit 50 home runs.

There's a number of players on the White Sox I really like, but the only ones I think are great value right now are Eloy and Cease.

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3 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

His exit velocity and hard% were excellent, and even though his plate discipline wasn't pretty, it should improve over time. I'm all-in on Big Baby this season.

Me too...big time... and he's smart too...cuz he called Luis Robert the next Trout...ChiSox are gonna win that division this year...mark it down...

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23 hours ago, Sine_cera said:

Was he streaky? Yes he was. But he was also dealing with an ankle injury during his first full season in the majors. I’m not trying to be the glass-half-full guy but we can also not deny the changes after the ASB.

He didn’t have a single month with a 20+ LD% before the ASB but had two of them after the break. He cut down his K% from 28,7% to 24,5%. Actually, from July on his K% was 24,0/24,6/24,3. It wasn’t just a case of getting hot or lucky, he also made changes at the plate. That’s what young players should be doing. It’s what Acuna did during his rookie season.

Considering how plate discipline was never a red flag with him in the minors, I expect him to cut down on his K% while also slightly improving his BB%. He has shown he has the tools to hit for power while also hitting for a solid LD%. Yes, his xBA was .268 but it also means he doesn’t need to make impossible adjustments to improve his xBA to .280. We’re not talking about Joey Gallo BA/xBA/K% territory here. The main reason scouts loved him was his ability to hit for good avg, a solid plate discipline and power. It took Devers two years to put it all together and he was also a good average/good plate discipline/power prospect in the minors. I’m not implying Jimenez is going to be the next Devers but guess what Devers’ K% was two years ago? 24,6%. Last year he improved to 17,0%. So it’s crazy to give up on a young player after one season, especially the ones who have such specific skills. You either believe in them or you don’t.

I’ll leave it others to decide if he should be drafted as high as he is being drafted but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he puts up a .280/40 HR season this season. 

Devers still has a very aggressive approach and little feel for the K Zone. His success is due to advanced barrel control and pitch recognition from a very early age. They came from the same IFA signing class. They are the same age after all.

Devers cracked the majors 2 years earlier. Part was because Boston was more aggressive with promotions. Part was he had a more advanced feel to hit. Corner bats who make it up as fast as Devers pretty much speaks how good of a pure hitting prospect they are.

I like Eloy alot this year, but he doesn't have Devers natural feel to hit. Not many do. When Eloy was putting up sparking # in the minors. Devers was being challenged by MLB pitching. 

Edited by Slatykamora
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On 1/29/2020 at 7:48 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

I think this guy is highly overrated.  Sue me.  Xstats aren’t a big fan, and streaky players kill you in HTH.  He’s not going to get you SB. So your drafting him in the 6th round for what? 35 HR and 265 xBA?  With most of them coming in a clump? I know he had a good end of season but lord.  
 

edit: not to mention in any league other than standard 5x5 It’s even worse because of his terrible plate discipline 


I don't think your comment is worth a lawsuit, but this is a player whose ceiling is essentially: Pete Alonso / Giancarlo Stanton power with a superior hit tool. He's a more natural hitter than those two. And I recommend checking out some of his highlights from 2019 - some of his balls land in places I've never seen balls land before. And sometimes he'll inside out pitches off the inside part of the bat, and they land over the right field fence (like his grand slam).  I'm not sure 2020 is the year it's all going to come together, though I think he's about to explode. He seems like a smart guy, and you could see him adjusting and getting more comfortable as the year went on. Sure, he doesn't have steals. But ultimately I think we are looking at Nolan Arenado in the outfield. 

 

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52 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:


I don't think your comment is worth a lawsuit, but this is a player whose ceiling is essentially: Pete Alonso / Giancarlo Stanton power with a superior hit tool. He's a more natural hitter than those two. And I recommend checking out some of his highlights from 2019 - some of his balls land in places I've never seen balls land before. And sometimes he'll inside out pitches off the inside part of the bat, and they land over the right field fence (like his grand slam).  I'm not sure 2020 is the year it's all going to come together, though I think he's about to explode. He seems like a smart guy, and you could see him adjusting and getting more comfortable as the year went on. Sure, he doesn't have steals. But ultimately I think we are looking at Nolan Arenado in the outfield. 

 


one reason I think Arenado is unique, and why I think he manages to maintain a high average, is his K rate.  Eloy should have a much higher K rate then Arenado (it’s been higher throughout all levels of minors and majors compared to Arenado all levels of minors and majors). 
 

The thing about Eloy is that there’s definitely a possibility he turns into a 300 40 star, but I also think there’s a definite (more likely) possibility he doesn’t.  People can pay for that risk if they want, but I’ll be taking Franmil “nearly identical stats AND xstats” 100+ picks later 

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  • 1 month later...
On 1/29/2020 at 10:48 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

I think this guy is highly overrated.  Sue me.  Xstats aren’t a big fan, and streaky players kill you in HTH.  He’s not going to get you SB. So your drafting him in the 6th round for what? 35 HR and 265 xBA?  With most of them coming in a clump? I know he had a good end of season but lord.  
 

edit: not to mention in any league other than standard 5x5 It’s even worse because of his terrible plate discipline 
 

 

This x100. Add a potential sophomore slump and this guy right at the top of likely busts. Khris Davis, Franmil Reyes, Kyle Schwarber are all going for far less when the difference between them and Eloy is not much.

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On 2/14/2020 at 9:51 AM, Sine_cera said:

Was he streaky? Yes he was. But he was also dealing with an ankle injury during his first full season in the majors. I’m not trying to be the glass-half-full guy but we can also not deny the changes after the ASB.

He didn’t have a single month with a 20+ LD% before the ASB but had two of them after the break. He cut down his K% from 28,7% to 24,5%. Actually, from July on his K% was 24,0/24,6/24,3. It wasn’t just a case of getting hot or lucky, he also made changes at the plate. That’s what young players should be doing. It’s what Acuna did during his rookie season.

Considering how plate discipline was never a red flag with him in the minors, I expect him to cut down on his K% while also slightly improving his BB%. He has shown he has the tools to hit for power while also hitting for a solid LD%. Yes, his xBA was .268 but it also means he doesn’t need to make impossible adjustments to improve his xBA to .280. We’re not talking about Joey Gallo BA/xBA/K% territory here. The main reason scouts loved him was his ability to hit for good avg, a solid plate discipline and power. It took Devers two years to put it all together and he was also a good average/good plate discipline/power prospect in the minors. I’m not implying Jimenez is going to be the next Devers but guess what Devers’ K% was two years ago? 24,6%. Last year he improved to 17,0%. So it’s crazy to give up on a young player after one season, especially the ones who have such specific skills. You either believe in them or you don’t.

I’ll leave it others to decide if he should be drafted as high as he is being drafted but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he puts up a .280/40 HR season this season. 

I also wouldn’t be surprised if he hits .265/35

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8 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

This x100. Add a potential sophomore slump and this guy right at the top of likely busts. Khris Davis, Franmil Reyes, Kyle Schwarber are all going for far less when the difference between them and Eloy is not much.

 

6 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

I also wouldn’t be surprised if he hits .265/35


Based on projections...It seems Davis, Reyes and Schwarbs hitting .265 is probably a ceiling with most are projected at .250 or lower while Jimenez is right about .280 with much data and scouting to support it). Simply to disregard about 20 to 30 points of avg. (or more) based on a gut feeling or is fine but doesn't add up. But on the surface level I can see what the point is. Just when you look a bit deeper it doesn't appear to be grasping on hope when there is valid data that suggests it a likely scenario. Then there is the other spectrum that suggests he out produces those projections for the Eloy optimists (and probably more data from his profile that suggest it is more likely of a .300 season than him hitting .250)...But let's just call it 50/50...I just think it's lazy to toss him in a group of low average power hitters and saying, "welp, it's about the same difference." 

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19 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

This x100. Add a potential sophomore slump and this guy right at the top of likely busts. Khris Davis, Franmil Reyes, Kyle Schwarber are all going for far less when the difference between them and Eloy is not much.

ha except not one of those guys has a shot to sniff 280+ avg. 30-40 pts on avg is massive.

 

potential sophomore slump kinda like acuna, gleyber, soto?

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23 hours ago, tucker26 said:

 


Based on projections...It seems Davis, Reyes and Schwarbs hitting .265 is probably a ceiling with most are projected at .250 or lower while Jimenez is right about .280 with much data and scouting to support it). Simply to disregard about 20 to 30 points of avg. (or more) based on a gut feeling or is fine but doesn't add up. But on the surface level I can see what the point is. Just when you look a bit deeper it doesn't appear to be grasping on hope when there is valid data that suggests it a likely scenario. Then there is the other spectrum that suggests he out produces those projections for the Eloy optimists (and probably more data from his profile that suggest it is more likely of a .300 season than him hitting .250)...But let's just call it 50/50...I just think it's lazy to toss him in a group of low average power hitters and saying, "welp, it's about the same difference." 

All that scouting and data isn’t proven results, which is the only thing that actually matters. Eloy has never finished a Major League season with an average higher than .267 or an OBP higher than .315. What he did for 2 weeks or a month to close out the season isn’t evidence of what he can do over a full sophomore season. Factor in a potential sophomore slump and there’s too much risk. Also what’s a better deal based on Steamer projections:


.280 33 HR 94 RBI 79 R 1 SB for $22

or

.254 37 HR 90 RBI 86 R 5 SB for $5

 

The second player is Schwarber. Is it good to pay $17 extra for worse HR, R and SB’s just so you can have 4 more RBI and a better average?

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10 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

All that scouting and data isn’t proven results, which is the only thing that actually matters. Eloy has never finished a Major League season with an average higher than .267 or an OBP higher than .315. What he did for 2 weeks or a month to close out the season isn’t evidence of what he can do over a full sophomore season. Factor in a potential sophomore slump and there’s too much risk. Also what’s a better deal based on Steamer projections:


.280 33 HR 94 RBI 79 R 1 SB for $22

or

.254 37 HR 90 RBI 86 R 5 SB for $5

 

The second player is Schwarber. Is it good to pay $17 extra for worse HR, R and SB’s just so you can have 4 more RBI and a better average?


worried about sophomore slump’s but disregarding data and scouting. And if you want to stick to non predictive stats like avg....Schwarbs has a career .235 avg... Okay now, have a great day :) 

Edited by tucker26
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  • 2 months later...
On 1/30/2020 at 8:06 AM, tucker26 said:

To add some context to 2019...It was his rookie season in which he hit the IL at least twice. In the off season he signed the new contract and was moving through new stadiums and processes including a swing change so he can get to more pitches. After his initial struggles, coming of the IL and getting used to MLB pitching a tad he suddenly looked like the player he was so highly scouted and ranked as prospect. Eloy’s work has been praised by both CHI organizations and it appeared fruits of those efforts came late in his rookie season. I think after a offseason familiarity and hopefully continued hard work we see improvements. His walk rate in the minors was never very high but he was roping everything in sight. In the majors he got challenged more and his K increased. Would it not be a stretch to think the K rate for a heralded contact profile improves?  Further the walk rate could likely improves as he begins to learn pitchers as his career moves on? The only thing I really have my fingers crossed for staying generally healthy. 
 

TLDR: He was a rookie coming off a bunch of changes and injuries and eventually settled into and showed the superstar potential he has at the plate.

I agree with this. In AAA (2018) his K-rate was 15% (over 450PA)! That's fantastic contact skills for a guy with 80 raw power. Even before that, he sat at a little better than 20% K-rate through the minors. He never walked much for a slugger but that can develop over time when pitchers realize they're facing a .280+ 40+ hitter. Plus he's a great student and has drive to continue to develop and listen to coaches. 

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