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Zac Gallen 2020 Outlook


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There really isn't THAT much hype overall, maybe there is in this thread, but he's going for an NFBC ADP of 130, good for the SP #37. So he's essentially going as an SP3 or 4 in standard leagues, in r

Any team that would choose to start Mike Leake over Zac Gallen deserves to finish dead last in it's division.   End of story.

I’m really enjoying my production out of this bottom of the rotation waiver wire pitcher!

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21 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Paddack has long been considered better suited for the bullpen and has outperformed his advanced metrics; 

 

what are you talking about??? i'm a diehard Padres fan and very, very closely follow the system and i've never seen one single word about him being in the pen. this is just a flat out lie. since the day we got him for Rodney he's been destined for the rotation.

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26 minutes ago, axiom20XX said:

 

what are you talking about??? i'm a diehard Padres fan and very, very closely follow the system and i've never seen one single word about him being in the pen. this is just a flat out lie. since the day we got him for Rodney he's been destined for the rotation.

He's rolling now,  gotta let it go.  Apparently fip and xfip are the only advanced metrics that matter,  and WAR is worth $4m per.  It's like 2009 showed up and everything is new again.  

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14 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Just curious..who actually watched Zac Gallen pitch in 2019?

 

I actually saw Gallen pitch live at Dodgers Stadium last year. He lacked control most of the evening, but got through 5 or so innings. I dunno, wouldn't put too much stock into that one outing though. People drafting him higher than what he is expecting him to take a step forward might be disapointed. I think he's a good pitcher, but he's an SP3 with risk for me. Not sure there is Ace upside here, but certainly could be good.

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1 hour ago, mavsfan23 said:

I see a Zack Greinke type career for Gallen, and that’s pretty damn good. Obviously high end of the potential outcomes. Seems like forever ago, but Greinke was also a 93ish FB during his prime. 

 

Greinke is a borderline HOFer, I will take the under for Gallen. 

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Nick Pollack at Pitcherlist has posted his top 40 starting pitchers and he’s quite high on Gallen too, ranking him 24th. Here’s what he had to say:

24. Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks) – I could play it safe, but hey, three Zac(k)s in a row? WHO COULD SAY NO TO THAT?! But seriously, I’m telling you right now that if you’re risk-averse, just ignore me and go get the guys you want. One element about writing my own rankings is that I don’t have to always be conservative, and I get to run with my gut in where I see legit breakouts coming. And I see that in Gallen … to no one’s surprise.

I’ll have a massive breakdown on Gallen coming in the next few weeks, outlining all his pitches in-depth, with quotes from him as we talked about their development, moving to Arizona from Miami, and how his approach has changed through the years. Here’s what you need to know: 1) He’s accepting the Blake Snell Blueprint of high heaters and low secondary pitches now that he’s on the Diamondbacks. 2) His slider/cutter is a feel pitch and he’s working on its consistency. 3) He has no fear.

Gallen is an arm that will throw the right pitch in a given at-bat. He’s the anti-2018 Bieber, where he’ll nibble, throw a 3-2 changeup to chase the strikeout and have full confidence in his deep repertoire to pitch to philosophy instead of fear. Sure, it did create an 11% walk rate last season, but I expect that to fall to 8.0% or so with more time in the majors. Oh, and about that repertoire: Let’s add up all the factors like DMX.

Curveball? Strong offering with a 45% O-Swing and 37% zone rate. A cutter that’s really a slider? 16% SwStr rate with a 52% zone rate and 41% O-Swing. Um, yes please. He made some mistakes with it last year, and it does go in-and-out, but I’m banking on its overall performance to improve. Changeup? 21% SwStr rate and 45% O-Swing. This is a dope pitch. It’s always there to get strikes and dominate.

So he has Eduardo Rodriguez‘s changeup, a slider and curveball that both induce chases and can be trusted for strikes, and a fastball that sits 93 mph and touches 96/97 with full intent to elevate. WHY DO YOU NOT WANT THIS.

Fine, the only concern is that he may not be in the rotation to start the season. And that’s just unreal. There are two spots open between Merrill Kelly, Mike Leakeand Gallen, and do you truly believe that the Diamondbacks would hold back Gallen, who tossed 170 innings last year? Really? It doesn’t add up. Yes, this ranking ignores that possibility, and I 100% get if you’re upset about that. I’m ranking this based on the expectation that he comes out of camp with it, and if you really want to bake in the chance he doesn’t, then slot him down to right after David PriceI’m not buying it, so I’m all-in here.

Nick’s Reluctant Projection: 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 26% K rate in 180 IP

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According to Steve Gilbert of MLB.com, Zac Gallen will have to earn the fifth and final spot in the Diamondbacks' starting rotation during the spring.

Diamondbacks' manager Torey Lovullo indicated that Gallen is a strong favorite for the role, telling reporters "Of course I would have to say that he's going to get some very, very strong consideration, considering that he came on board and pitched some really big games for us". With Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Mike Leake and Luke Weaver seemingly locked in, Gallen need will to out-pitch Merril Kelly and Alex Young among others. Fantasy drafters have already staked their claim to Gallen, as the 24-year-old right-hander has been the second D'Backs' hurler off of NFBC draft boards to date, just behind Madison Bumgarner.

Source: MLB.com                  Feb 7, 2020, 6:55 PM ET

I don't know why they are making him earn it.  Everyone knows he should have a rotation spot.  But oh well they are going through the masquerade.

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On 2/7/2020 at 7:54 PM, 96GOAT said:

Any team that would choose to start Mike Leake over Zac Gallen deserves to finish dead last in it's division.

 

End of story.

His FIP was almost higher than his K/9 last year, but he's locked into the rotation. 

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8 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Would anyone REALLY be surprised if Arizona pulls an old school move and cuts him out?  Just another risk factor imo

 

I'd be completely and utterly shocked if that happens.

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For those that were worried about not making the starting rotation out of spring, an IL stint from Mike Leake to start the year should just about seal the deal:

And for your viewing pleasure, here are some Zac Gallen curveballs:

 

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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

For those that were worried about not making the starting rotation out of spring, an IL stint from Mike Leake to start the year should just about seal the deal.

 

This actually annoys me. In my mind there was 0% Gallen was not making the rotation. Any discount we could have gotten on that would've been an easy edge. Oh well.

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As someone who spent time charting a ton of Gallen starts last year, he is def a pitcher that could make a serious run at the top 20 pitchers overall.

The stuff isn't gonna completely knock you over, but it is still pretty strong (as long as FA velo doesn't waiver--it did in a few starts last year). It is a deep and legit 4 pitch mix and one where the arsenal works in a very complimentary manner. Generates a lot of movement (both vertically and horizontally) on his pitches and his command is quite strong--despite the walk rate from bigs last year. I specifically recall several outings I charted where he would have 5+ pitchers that were in the strike zone plot called balls. Not sure if it was because he was a rookie or just fooled the ump? But this guy can spot all 4 of his pitches all over the edges. The only thing I thought he needed to do more was work the upper quadrants with his FA, hopefully he noticed that during he off-season video work. 

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On 2/10/2020 at 2:22 AM, Fbaseballgod said:

Would anyone REALLY be surprised if Arizona pulls an old school move and cuts him out?  Just another risk factor imo

 

Re-read that. You wrote Arizona, not Colorado. We'd all be surprised if Arizona did that.

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