Zac Gallen 2020 Outlook

[jfazz23 2,530]

6 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Just curious..who actually watched Zac Gallen pitch in 2019?

 

watching people pitch so so 2009.  we have zips now bro

[axiom20XX 75]

21 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Paddack has long been considered better suited for the bullpen and has outperformed his advanced metrics; 

 

what are you talking about??? i'm a diehard Padres fan and very, very closely follow the system and i've never seen one single word about him being in the pen. this is just a flat out lie. since the day we got him for Rodney he's been destined for the rotation.

[WahooManiac 2,002]

26 minutes ago, axiom20XX said:

 

what are you talking about??? i'm a diehard Padres fan and very, very closely follow the system and i've never seen one single word about him being in the pen. this is just a flat out lie. since the day we got him for Rodney he's been destined for the rotation.

He's rolling now,  gotta let it go.  Apparently fip and xfip are the only advanced metrics that matter,  and WAR is worth $4m per.  It's like 2009 showed up and everything is new again.  

[Sidearmer 2,226]

14 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

The hype for gallen has gone off the rails, tbh 

 

There really isn't THAT much hype overall, maybe there is in this thread, but he's going for an NFBC ADP of 130, good for the SP #37. So he's essentially going as an SP3 or 4 in standard leagues, in round 11. There's guys around his ADP with higher floors or higher ceilings, but there's other reasons they aren't far and away better than Gallen. Lets look at the 7 starting pitchers above and below Gallen:

Carlos Carrasco - Struggled mightily last year, prior to and after Leukemia, although the stuff was still there at end of season. A major wild card, probably a high variance player. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Madison Bumgarner - Three consecutive seasons of FIP above 3.90 and K/IP under 1. Moving to a better hitter's park. 2017 and 2018 injury shortened, but went 207 IP last year. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Zack Wheeler - While stuff is decent I can see Wheeler and Gallen having pretty similar numbers. Wheeler has 2 straight years of horrid first halves and elite second halves, overall solid numbers. If Gallen can repeat what Wheeler has already done past 2 years, it would be a success. Wheeler does have injury risk (missed 2015 and 2016 due to TJS,) and he's moving to a worse pitchers park, which likely pushes him down into this range. Still a full 11 players ahead of Gallen. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Frankie Montas - Elite last year but suspended the second half for PEDs, did this fuel his breakout? Will there be an innings limit? Higher upside but who knows where his floor is. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Dinelson Lamet - Elite strikeout rate, but probably facing inning restrictions. Mediocore WHIP and ERA above 4 in both his MLB seasons. Ceiling is higher than Gallen, floor is much lower. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Hyun-Jin Ryu - Elite last year but had luck in ERA too, doesn't get strikeouts, and has injury risk. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Jesus Luzardo - Similar to Lamet, probably facing inning restrictions, might be in bullpen for part of the season. Overall injury risk. Ceiling is higher than Gallen, floor is much lower. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

 

Zac Gallen - Read through through my posts on this thread for his summary.

 

Lance Lynn - Had his best year last year, which succeeded two mediocre years after TJS. To me seems underrated and I'd have him above everyone in this grouping. Only reason the market is down is because it came relatively out of nowhere. That's enough to think its reasonable he's in this range. I'd peg him a round or two above Gallen, but overall is reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Eduardo Rodriguez - Had a 1.33 WHIP last year, similar K upside to Gallen, and similar ERA / WHIP projections. Slight bump because he had 19 Wins last year? Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Max Fried - High WHIP last year, started to breakdown toward the end of the season. Maybe can make a jump, but far from a sure thing. He's had high WHIPs throughout his minor league career. Throws strikes but is too hittable. Likely going to be a high WHIP, mediocre ERA guy unless he makes a big jump. Similar to Eduardo Rodriguez last few years. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Robbie Ray - Elite strikeout rate, but FIP over 4 last 2 years. Guarantee for strikeouts but hard to tell where his ERA and WHIP will fall. Probably more of a guy you pair with a low K low ERA pitcher, but can't expect him to be better than below average in ERA and WHIP. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Kyle Hendricks - Opposite of Robbie Ray, should be able to rely on a low ERA and WHIP, but not many K. Hyun-Jin Ryu lite, with less injury risk.  Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Julio Urias - Similar to Luzardo, probably facing inning restrictions, might be in bullpen for part of the season. Overall injury risk. Ceiling is higher than Gallen, floor is much lower. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

Matthew Boyd - Similar to Robbie Ray, with less risk to WHIP but more risk to ERA due to the HR. Has never had a FIP below 4.30. If he can fix his HR problem he can be elite but that's a big if. Reasonable to be within range of Gallen.

---------------------

Based on the above, I don't see any reason to think Gallen's ADP is outrageous at all. If anything, I think its a little understated because I believe he can improve his underlying metrics to offset the luck he may have had. He's on a good offensive team, in a solid park (post humidor), and is coming off 170 professional innings with an elite K rate. Even if his ERA falters, he can still deliver 200 K in a down year. The guys ahead of him don't have solid floors themselves, so its not like its a huge risk getting Gallen. His ADP is at 130; at this point in the draft, there are no sure things, as demonstrated above. If at this point you still think Gallen's ADP is ridiculous then you won't be drafting a pitcher at all until the end of the draft.

Edited February 1, 2020 by Sidearmer

[brockpapersizer 11,899]

14 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Just curious..who actually watched Zac Gallen pitch in 2019?

 

I actually saw Gallen pitch live at Dodgers Stadium last year. He lacked control most of the evening, but got through 5 or so innings. I dunno, wouldn't put too much stock into that one outing though. People drafting him higher than what he is expecting him to take a step forward might be disapointed. I think he's a good pitcher, but he's an SP3 with risk for me. Not sure there is Ace upside here, but certainly could be good.

[KingJoffrey 904]

I was going to make a post like Sidearmer’s but I was too lazy.  He hit the nail right on the head.  There’s no depth of SP this year.  Everyone around him has warts.

[mavsfan23 1,239]

I see a Zack Greinke type career for Gallen, and that’s pretty damn good. Obviously high end of the potential outcomes. Seems like forever ago, but Greinke was also a 93ish FB during his prime. 

[brockpapersizer 11,899]

1 hour ago, mavsfan23 said:

I see a Zack Greinke type career for Gallen, and that’s pretty damn good. Obviously high end of the potential outcomes. Seems like forever ago, but Greinke was also a 93ish FB during his prime. 

 

Greinke is a borderline HOFer, I will take the under for Gallen. 

Edited February 2, 2020 by brockpapersizer

[hockeyfan77 681]

7 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Greinke is a borderline HOFer, I will take the under for Gallen. 

I would too and still be happy to have Gallen on my team

[meh2 3,476]

Nick Pollack at Pitcherlist has posted his top 40 starting pitchers and he’s quite high on Gallen too, ranking him 24th. Here’s what he had to say:

24. Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks) – I could play it safe, but hey, three Zac(k)s in a row? WHO COULD SAY NO TO THAT?! But seriously, I’m telling you right now that if you’re risk-averse, just ignore me and go get the guys you want. One element about writing my own rankings is that I don’t have to always be conservative, and I get to run with my gut in where I see legit breakouts coming. And I see that in Gallen … to no one’s surprise.

I’ll have a massive breakdown on Gallen coming in the next few weeks, outlining all his pitches in-depth, with quotes from him as we talked about their development, moving to Arizona from Miami, and how his approach has changed through the years. Here’s what you need to know: 1) He’s accepting the Blake Snell Blueprint of high heaters and low secondary pitches now that he’s on the Diamondbacks. 2) His slider/cutter is a feel pitch and he’s working on its consistency. 3) He has no fear.

Gallen is an arm that will throw the right pitch in a given at-bat. He’s the anti-2018 Bieber, where he’ll nibble, throw a 3-2 changeup to chase the strikeout and have full confidence in his deep repertoire to pitch to philosophy instead of fear. Sure, it did create an 11% walk rate last season, but I expect that to fall to 8.0% or so with more time in the majors. Oh, and about that repertoire: Let’s add up all the factors like DMX.

Curveball? Strong offering with a 45% O-Swing and 37% zone rate. A cutter that’s really a slider? 16% SwStr rate with a 52% zone rate and 41% O-Swing. Um, yes please. He made some mistakes with it last year, and it does go in-and-out, but I’m banking on its overall performance to improve. Changeup? 21% SwStr rate and 45% O-Swing. This is a dope pitch. It’s always there to get strikes and dominate.

So he has Eduardo Rodriguez‘s changeup, a slider and curveball that both induce chases and can be trusted for strikes, and a fastball that sits 93 mph and touches 96/97 with full intent to elevate. WHY DO YOU NOT WANT THIS.

Fine, the only concern is that he may not be in the rotation to start the season. And that’s just unreal. There are two spots open between Merrill Kelly, Mike Leake, and Gallen, and do you truly believe that the Diamondbacks would hold back Gallen, who tossed 170 innings last year? Really? It doesn’t add up. Yes, this ranking ignores that possibility, and I 100% get if you’re upset about that. I’m ranking this based on the expectation that he comes out of camp with it, and if you really want to bake in the chance he doesn’t, then slot him down to right after David Price. I’m not buying it, so I’m all-in here.

Nick’s Reluctant Projection: 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 26% K rate in 180 IP

[The Big Bat Theory 7,508]

Quote

According to Steve Gilbert of MLB.com, Zac Gallen will have to earn the fifth and final spot in the Diamondbacks' starting rotation during the spring.

Diamondbacks' manager Torey Lovullo indicated that Gallen is a strong favorite for the role, telling reporters "Of course I would have to say that he's going to get some very, very strong consideration, considering that he came on board and pitched some really big games for us". With Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Mike Leake and Luke Weaver seemingly locked in, Gallen need will to out-pitch Merril Kelly and Alex Young among others. Fantasy drafters have already staked their claim to Gallen, as the 24-year-old right-hander has been the second D'Backs' hurler off of NFBC draft boards to date, just behind Madison Bumgarner.

Source: MLB.com                  Feb 7, 2020, 6:55 PM ET

I don't know why they are making him earn it.  Everyone knows he should have a rotation spot.  But oh well they are going through the masquerade.

[96GOAT 197]

Any team that would choose to start Mike Leake over Zac Gallen deserves to finish dead last in it's division.

 

End of story.

[hockeyfan77 681]

6 hours ago, 96GOAT said:

Any team that would choose to start Mike Leake over Zac Gallen deserves to finish dead last in it's division.

 

End of story.

They can't be serious, gotta be just coach speak 

[kidtwentytwo 5,502]

Merrill Kelly will be the odd man out 

[Fbaseballgod 333]

Would anyone REALLY be surprised if Arizona pulls an old school move and cuts him out?  Just another risk factor imo

[Hollywood42 120]

7 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Would anyone REALLY be surprised if Arizona pulls an old school move and cuts him out?  Just another risk factor imo

 

What? No, that's not happening.

[sngehl01 917]

8 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Would anyone REALLY be surprised if Arizona pulls an old school move and cuts him out?  Just another risk factor imo

Yes, I would be very surprised. 

[mavsfan23 1,239]

On 2/7/2020 at 7:54 PM, 96GOAT said:

Any team that would choose to start Mike Leake over Zac Gallen deserves to finish dead last in it's division.

 

End of story.

His FIP was almost higher than his K/9 last year, but he's locked into the rotation. 

[Sidearmer 2,226]

8 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Would anyone REALLY be surprised if Arizona pulls an old school move and cuts him out?  Just another risk factor imo

 

I'd be completely and utterly shocked if that happens.

[Flyman75 5,058]

9 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Would anyone REALLY be surprised if Arizona pulls an old school move and cuts him out?  Just another risk factor imo

 

I would be STUNNED.

[crotchcrickets 3,218]

*girds my loins*

[meh2 3,476]

For those that were worried about not making the starting rotation out of spring, an IL stint from Mike Leake to start the year should just about seal the deal:

And for your viewing pleasure, here are some Zac Gallen curveballs:

 

[Sidearmer 2,226]

1 hour ago, meh2 said:

For those that were worried about not making the starting rotation out of spring, an IL stint from Mike Leake to start the year should just about seal the deal.

 

This actually annoys me. In my mind there was 0% Gallen was not making the rotation. Any discount we could have gotten on that would've been an easy edge. Oh well.

[ST. STEVEN 4,319]

As someone who spent time charting a ton of Gallen starts last year, he is def a pitcher that could make a serious run at the top 20 pitchers overall.

The stuff isn't gonna completely knock you over, but it is still pretty strong (as long as FA velo doesn't waiver--it did in a few starts last year). It is a deep and legit 4 pitch mix and one where the arsenal works in a very complimentary manner. Generates a lot of movement (both vertically and horizontally) on his pitches and his command is quite strong--despite the walk rate from bigs last year. I specifically recall several outings I charted where he would have 5+ pitchers that were in the strike zone plot called balls. Not sure if it was because he was a rookie or just fooled the ump? But this guy can spot all 4 of his pitches all over the edges. The only thing I thought he needed to do more was work the upper quadrants with his FA, hopefully he noticed that during he off-season video work. 

[GrapeJuice 605]

On 2/10/2020 at 2:22 AM, Fbaseballgod said:

Would anyone REALLY be surprised if Arizona pulls an old school move and cuts him out?  Just another risk factor imo

 

Re-read that. You wrote Arizona, not Colorado. We'd all be surprised if Arizona did that.