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Zac Gallen 2020 Outlook


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There really isn't THAT much hype overall, maybe there is in this thread, but he's going for an NFBC ADP of 130, good for the SP #37. So he's essentially going as an SP3 or 4 in standard leagues, in r

Any team that would choose to start Mike Leake over Zac Gallen deserves to finish dead last in it's division.   End of story.

I’m really enjoying my production out of this bottom of the rotation waiver wire pitcher!

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I'm pitching him. Honestly, it's almost good to see such a shootout tonight because those type of games rarely happen back-to-back. Gallen just pitched well against the Dodgers and the Astros and while Coors scares me, the Rockies line-up doesn't. They have a couple studs and Blackmon is super hot but it's a shallow line-up. I'm thinking 6 IP, 3 ER, 9K, 2BB and a no decision.

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2 minutes ago, barret said:

Sitting today and i’m guessing y’all haven’t been burned enough by otherwise pretty great pitchers at Coors? Just not worth the risk

He already beat the Dodgers and Astros...I see no reason to bench 

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He's been fine his past two starts against strong teams but I'll be sitting him for the same reason I'm currently streaming Matt Kemp and Kole Calhoun in my lineup. Coors - especially in summertime - not worth the risk imo unless the SP is truly dominant.

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Coors or not, with all of the injuries To SP’s this season - past, current, and future - and COVID related unrecoverable missed starts, in some cases by the multiple (see Jack Flaherty), which as we’ve seen can come at any moment — I’d like to think the teams who have the luxury of sitting Zac Gallen - a top 25 SP - against any given opponent in any given venue are few and far between. I for one at least am not one of them.

I think the proper way - or at least a measured way to look at Gallen’s start tonight in Colorado is this:

Sure, at Coors Gallen stands a good chance to give up more hits and runs than he would normally otherwise stand to endure, but last I checked, the thin air of Colorado doesn’t prevent batters from whiffing on offerings; and in order for that ball to carry, well, the guy taking hacks at the plate has to actually, y’know, make contact with the baseball. And we all know, Gallen is pretty good at making hitters miss said baseball.

Furthermore, don’t forget to take into account that the Diamondbacks hitters also get to take their turns at the plate every other half inning the selves too you know. And if last night was any indication of what their bats are capable of providing as support (12 runs...and 14 off of McCullers in Arizona just a few nights before that), it would appear to bode well towards the prospects of capturing a win. After all, remember, a W is well within play for Gallen. 

And the opposing pitcher who toes the rubber on the other side for this evening’s contest is none other than Kyle Freeland. A nice first few starts to the start of the 2020 or not, it’s not exactly as if he’s coming off some banner year in 2019 or anything (He’s not. Get onto Google and type in “Kyle Freeland Baseball Reference”. Then click the first link that appears on the search and check out his 2019 stats)

My Take: Don't overthink this one. Gallen is a talent and you drafted him for a reason. He's good. Just start him. 

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Obviously it's whatever people want to do and everyone's team is different, I'm just raising the point about Coors because I saw a number of people saying they're rolling the dice. No matter what tonight's outcome ends up being, running pitchers out at Coors is a risk to your ratios and it's worth considering if it's worth chasing the decreased likelihood of a win (like most teams, the Rockies tend to win at home and I believe SP's generally are less likely to win at Coors than at other stadiums by the nature of the games there - but I don't have an easy way to pull the stats on that)

And yeah I don't build my team to be dependent on getting every Zac Gallen start. I avoid the biggest SP names entirely and get a group of undervalued potential aces and count on the fact that I have a bunch of them to minimize the risk when some inevitably don't pan out. That approach plus watching for surprising SP's to emerge off the wire has yet to fail me and I've been doing this a long time.

The one start Gallen made at Coors in his career was this time last year - he pitched 4 innings and luckily got out with only 2 er as he had a 2.5 whip. The three starts he made prior to that one he had great ratios. I'm not saying we can reliably judge anything off of one outing but it's a reminder to be cautious if you're risk averse.

By the way, you're distorting Freeland's record if you only look at 2019 and not his 2 prior seasons; 2019 looks like the anomaly. His pitch mix is totally different this year than last and his expected ERA numbers are actually not so different from Gallen's. In any case, he's not the reason I'm sitting Gallen. I also experimented with rostering German Marquez in a prior season - I'm not saying you can never use anyone at Coors. But if you have the option not to, I wouldn't. The Rockies become a top offense at home vs a garbage one on the road. Visiting pitchers do not fare well there and the effects are worst in the summer.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, barret said:

Obviously it's whatever people want to do and everyone's team is different, I'm just raising the point about Coors because I saw a number of people saying they're rolling the dice. No matter what tonight's outcome ends up being, running pitchers out at Coors is a risk to your ratios and it's worth considering if it's worth chasing the decreased likelihood of a win (like most teams, the Rockies tend to win at home and I believe SP's generally are less likely to win at Coors than at other stadiums by the nature of the games there - but I don't have an easy way to pull the stats on that)

And yeah I don't build my team to be dependent on getting every Zac Gallen start. I avoid the biggest SP names entirely and get a group of undervalued potential aces and count on the fact that I have a bunch of them to minimize the risk when some inevitably don't pan out. That approach plus watching for surprising SP's to emerge off the wire has yet to fail me and I've been doing this a long time.

The one start Gallen made at Coors in his career was this time last year - he pitched 4 innings and luckily got out with only 2 er as he had a 2.5 whip. The three starts he made prior to that one he had great ratios. I'm not saying we can reliably judge anything off of one outing but it's a reminder to be cautious if you're risk averse.

By the way, you're distorting Freeland's record if you only look at 2019 and not his 2 prior seasons; 2019 looks like the anomaly. His pitch mix is totally different this year than last and his expected ERA numbers are actually not so different from Gallen's. In any case, he's not the reason I'm sitting Gallen. I also experimented with rostering German Marquez in a prior season - I'm not saying you can never use anyone at Coors. But if you have the option not to, I wouldn't. The Rockies become a top offense at home vs a garbage one on the road. Visiting pitchers do not fare well there and the effects are worst in the summer.

I agree. I hope Gallen does well, but my week doesn't rest on him turning in his typical performance. I'm a definite bench on this start (I started him every other game this season) and not thinking twice about the decision. 

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33 minutes ago, barret said:

Obviously it's whatever people want to do and everyone's team is different, I'm just raising the point about Coors because I saw a number of people saying they're rolling the dice. No matter what tonight's outcome ends up being, running pitchers out at Coors is a risk to your ratios and it's worth considering if it's worth chasing the decreased likelihood of a win (like most teams, the Rockies tend to win at home and I believe SP's generally are less likely to win at Coors than at other stadiums by the nature of the games there - but I don't have an easy way to pull the stats on that)

And yeah I don't build my team to be dependent on getting every Zac Gallen start. I avoid the biggest SP names entirely and get a group of undervalued potential aces and count on the fact that I have a bunch of them to minimize the risk when some inevitably don't pan out. That approach plus watching for surprising SP's to emerge off the wire has yet to fail me and I've been doing this a long time.

The one start Gallen made at Coors in his career was this time last year - he pitched 4 innings and luckily got out with only 2 er as he had a 2.5 whip. The three starts he made prior to that one he had great ratios. I'm not saying we can reliably judge anything off of one outing but it's a reminder to be cautious if you're risk averse.

By the way, you're distorting Freeland's record if you only look at 2019 and not his 2 prior seasons; 2019 looks like the anomaly. His pitch mix is totally different this year than last and his expected ERA numbers are actually not so different from Gallen's. In any case, he's not the reason I'm sitting Gallen. I also experimented with rostering German Marquez in a prior season - I'm not saying you can never use anyone at Coors. But if you have the option not to, I wouldn't. The Rockies become a top offense at home vs a garbage one on the road. Visiting pitchers do not fare well there and the effects are worst in the summer.

 

 

This is a great point.  Even if Gallen does pitch well someone in the bullpen will likely give up any lead.  So what are we left with?  A game in which the our ratios will be at the very least be hurt to some extent.  There are the additional Ks though.  I do not know how to quantify whether it is worth it.

 

Having said that I am still throwing him.  He is a borderline ace.

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9 hours ago, B&F said:

Having said that I am still throwing him.  He is a borderline ace.

 

He's an Ace with a capital A. Assuming he is done for the night, he did 7IP 2ER 7Ks in Coors. In his first 19 MLB starts, he has not given up more than 3 ER in a single start.

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13 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Like I said, you don't sit a top 25 SP. The dude is money. 

I completely agree I started him in all 3 leagues I own him 

though the logic that it was a risk to ratios, a perceived lower chance at a win for K upside Means risking 3 categories for 1 isn’t flawed. 
 

I just believe he was good enough to perform at coors 

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12 hours ago, Chest-Rockwell said:

Coors or not, with all of the injuries To SP’s this season - past, current, and future - and COVID related unrecoverable missed starts, in some cases by the multiple (see Jack Flaherty), which as we’ve seen can come at any moment — I’d like to think the teams who have the luxury of sitting Zac Gallen - a top 25 SP - against any given opponent in any given venue are few and far between. I for one at least am not one of them.

I think the proper way - or at least a measured way to look at Gallen’s start tonight in Colorado is this:

Sure, at Coors Gallen stands a good chance to give up more hits and runs than he would normally otherwise stand to endure, but last I checked, the thin air of Colorado doesn’t prevent batters from whiffing on offerings; and in order for that ball to carry, well, the guy taking hacks at the plate has to actually, y’know, make contact with the baseball. And we all know, Gallen is pretty good at making hitters miss said baseball.

Furthermore, don’t forget to take into account that the Diamondbacks hitters also get to take their turns at the plate every other half inning the selves too you know. And if last night was any indication of what their bats are capable of providing as support (12 runs...and 14 off of McCullers in Arizona just a few nights before that), it would appear to bode well towards the prospects of capturing a win. After all, remember, a W is well within play for Gallen. 

And the opposing pitcher who toes the rubber on the other side for this evening’s contest is none other than Kyle Freeland. A nice first few starts to the start of the 2020 or not, it’s not exactly as if he’s coming off some banner year in 2019 or anything (He’s not. Get onto Google and type in “Kyle Freeland Baseball Reference”. Then click the first link that appears on the search and check out his 2019 stats)

My Take: Don't overthink this one. Gallen is a talent and you drafted him for a reason. He's good. Just start him. 

 

Heyoooooo

 

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12 minutes ago, summersoff7 said:

and he gets jipped out of a 'W' again.  WTF is the matter with Arizona's bullpen.  The team doesn't deserve him.

 

He's definitely not getting the love from his team, but that's about all we can complain about. This guy's command and feel are unbelievable. 

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