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Zac Gallen 2020 Outlook


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3 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Let’s see, 2.09 ERA in 6 months! OMG I was wrong this guy is an ace!!

Wait, this season has only been a month long and that’s in only 7 games. Well no worries, I’m sure it’s not a fluke. Let’s check out his advanced metrics! 


3.81 FIP 3.68 xFIP, strikeout rate down from last year, hmmm that sounds like a mid rotation waiver wire player. 
 

Well at least he’ll get a ton of wins! Oh wait he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Let’s look in a crystal ball:

 

Steamer projects a 4.17 ERA going forward and he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Verdict: you’re excited because your waiver wire scrub overachieved for 7 games. 

 

Waiver wire scrub - that's a good one.  He's had 22 starts in his career and has yet to give up more than 3 ERs.  This year, 6 of his 7 starts have been QS.  His K/9 (even though down from last year) is still close to 10.  I think it's time for you to purchase a new crystal ball.  

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There really isn't THAT much hype overall, maybe there is in this thread, but he's going for an NFBC ADP of 130, good for the SP #37. So he's essentially going as an SP3 or 4 in standard leagues, in r

Any team that would choose to start Mike Leake over Zac Gallen deserves to finish dead last in it's division.   End of story.

I’m really enjoying my production out of this bottom of the rotation waiver wire pitcher!

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5 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Let’s see, 2.09 ERA in 6 months! OMG I was wrong this guy is an ace!!

Wait, this season has only been a month long and that’s in only 7 games. Well no worries, I’m sure it’s not a fluke. Let’s check out his advanced metrics! 


3.81 FIP 3.68 xFIP, strikeout rate down from last year, hmmm that sounds like a mid rotation waiver wire player. 
 

Well at least he’ll get a ton of wins! Oh wait he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Let’s look in a crystal ball:

 

Steamer projects a 4.17 ERA going forward and he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Verdict: you’re excited because your waiver wire scrub overachieved for 7 games. 

If he regresses and pitches closer to his FIP/xFIP a mid-to high 3 ERA with a K/9 of nearly 10 is far from a 'waiver wire scrub'. Your sodium levels appear to be dangerously high.

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2 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

 

Waiver wire scrub - that's a good one.  He's had 22 starts in his career and has yet to give up more than 3 ERs.  This year, 6 of his 7 starts have been QS.  His K/9 (even though down from last year) is still close to 10.  I think it's time for you to purchase a new crystal ball.  

If you want to go farther (and this is what really caught my eye)...last year he had 14 starts, 91.1inn, 1.77ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 112Ks IN THE PCL!  That just doesn't happen.  He made his changes last year and hasn't looked back.

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8 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Let’s see, 2.09 ERA in 6 months! OMG I was wrong this guy is an ace!!

Wait, this season has only been a month long and that’s in only 7 games. Well no worries, I’m sure it’s not a fluke. Let’s check out his advanced metrics! 


3.81 FIP 3.68 xFIP, strikeout rate down from last year, hmmm that sounds like a mid rotation waiver wire player. 
 

Well at least he’ll get a ton of wins! Oh wait he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Let’s look in a crystal ball:

 

Steamer projects a 4.17 ERA going forward and he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Verdict: you’re excited because your waiver wire scrub overachieved for 7 games. 

He's top 20 in xFIP, K-BB%, SIERA among qualified pitchers. All of the most accurate predictive stats for pitchers, so I'd say taking the L on this one is your best option. Hanging onto steamer projections over a smaller sample than what you're writing off as a small sample is ironic. 

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On 9/1/2020 at 11:18 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

Let’s see, 2.09 ERA in 6 months! OMG I was wrong this guy is an ace!!

Wait, this season has only been a month long and that’s in only 7 games. Well no worries, I’m sure it’s not a fluke. Let’s check out his advanced metrics! 


3.81 FIP 3.68 xFIP, strikeout rate down from last year, hmmm that sounds like a mid rotation waiver wire player. 
 

Well at least he’ll get a ton of wins! Oh wait he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Let’s look in a crystal ball:

 

Steamer projects a 4.17 ERA going forward and he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Verdict: you’re excited because your waiver wire scrub overachieved for 7 games. 

Well, this "take" didn't age well at all. No Dodger reached second base against him in 7+ innings. A pitcher doesn't need an elite K% to be a low-end SP1, or top 15 SP. Gallen is extremely proficient at limiting hits and hard contact.

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5 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:


waiver wire scrub? Really?

4 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:


Read the last page or so of posts and you’ll get it. 

🤣 Crazy talk lol. I took him just after the top 100 in two of my three leagues to make sure I got him. NFBC ADP was 120 and I can’t imagine someone would have dropped him. 

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2 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

🤣 Crazy talk lol. I took him just after the top 100 in two of my three leagues to make sure I got him. NFBC ADP was 120 and I can’t imagine someone would have dropped him. 


The post in question was sarcasm. Gallen has been a stud this year but a certain someone in this thread has been poo pooing on him since the spring. 

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On 9/1/2020 at 2:18 PM, Thenewwildone8 said:

Let’s see, 2.09 ERA in 6 months! OMG I was wrong this guy is an ace!!

Wait, this season has only been a month long and that’s in only 7 games. Well no worries, I’m sure it’s not a fluke. Let’s check out his advanced metrics! 


3.81 FIP 3.68 xFIP, strikeout rate down from last year, hmmm that sounds like a mid rotation waiver wire player. 
 

Well at least he’ll get a ton of wins! Oh wait he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Let’s look in a crystal ball:

 

Steamer projects a 4.17 ERA going forward and he’s on a terrible team. 
 

Verdict: you’re excited because your waiver wire scrub overachieved for 7 games. 

 

Your posting privileges have been revoked.  Take a lap, McFly.

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7 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:


The post in question was sarcasm. Gallen has been a stud this year but a certain someone in this thread has been poo pooing on him since the spring. 

Yes I got it. I went back through the thread. 

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8 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I was a bit tempted. Figured he was overdue. But the dodgers did t have Belly so it tipped the scales.


He’s made 23 career MLB starts and NEVER has allowed more than 3 ER (that’s a record). He’s had a quality start in every game this year (including vsLAD, @LAD, vsHOU, vsOAK, @COL) except the opener because of building up. You’d have to go back to May 19, 2019 at AAA in the PCL where he allowed 5ER and that was the only time in all of 2019 he had >3. By my math, he’s allowed more than 3 ER once in his last 40 professional starts (MLB, AAA-PCL) and that dates into 2018.
 

I hope you were being sarcastic but if not (and to any doubters) he is LITERALLY the safest start in all of baseball lol. 

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2 hours ago, Wytchclt55 said:


He’s made 23 career MLB starts and NEVER has allowed more than 3 ER (that’s a record). He’s had a quality start in every game this year (including vsLAD, @LAD, vsHOU, vsOAK, @COL) except the opener because of building up. You’d have to go back to May 19, 2019 at AAA in the PCL where he allowed 5ER and that was the only time in all of 2019 he had >3. By my math, he’s allowed more than 3 ER once in his last 40 professional starts (MLB, AAA-PCL) and that dates into 2018.
 

I hope you were being sarcastic but if not (and to any doubters) he is LITERALLY the safest start in all of baseball lol. 


I was going to post something addressing something along these lines regarding Gallen, but you beat me to it. Zac Gallen has yet to have a bad outing in his Major League Baseball career. He’s unbelievably consistent. And that consistency which I speak of, it consists exclusively of good to great...Every. Damn. Outing...he’s ever had. As you pointed out: 23 MLB career starts to date, not a one of them with more than 3 earned runs allowed. 

And also alluding to what you mentioned, this “trend” of his in regards to good to great outings literally every time he takes the bump, it dates back to before Gallen got the call up to the bigs, where he possessed absolutely microscopic splits in the minors, including his time in the AAA Pacific Coast League (a famously hitter friendly league), where in 91.1 innings pitched in 2019, prior to his major league call up, Gallen sported a 9-1 record, a 1.77 ERA (Lowest ERA in the league by far. The next best best ERA for an SP in the PCL in 2019 was 3.65. Gallen’s was nearly 2 runs better), a 33.6% K rate and an eye popping K:BB ratio of 117:12 👀

This kid is so for real that I don’t believe there’s even an adjective in existence that can aptly describe just how for real he really is. So let’s just say he’s quite legitimate. His mechanics, his command, pitch repertoire (4 plus offerings), pitch sequencing, approach, make up, impeccable durability to date, pitching acumen, and general overall moxie on the mound — when juxtaposed with the sparkling incredibly consistent results at all levels — it screams long-time fixture as a Major League Baseball ACE. 

All things considered, when I add it altogether, I’m confident that, barring injury (and, at least to my knowledge, he hasn’t had any surgeries; heck, not even an ailment at any level) we are going to be seeing Zac Gallen as an annual fixture as a top 10, and soon enough top 5, starting pitcher off the board in re-draft leagues, universally, for the next decade, decade +

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1 minute ago, cizastro said:

 

Zac's name didn't sound as cool, so he was dispensable. 


If his name was Jizz Chasholm, I could understand Miami wanting — needing — to trade for that guy. Yes, even at the expense of Zac Gallen. But his name is not Jizz, it is Jazz (Chisholm), which is only kinda cool, not “best name ever” type cool, such as Jizz is. Therefore, no excuse.

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