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Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook


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“Zeke numbers is the floor,” Henry said on “The Rich Eisen Show” about his asking price.

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has the largest contract for a running back in the NFL in total value, average value and guaranteed money. After a holdout, Elliott signed a six-year, $90 million contract extension that included $50 million in guaranteed money four days before the Cowboys kicked off their 2019 season.

Elliott then delivered 1,357 yards and 12 touchdowns on 301 carries and 54 receptions for 420 yards and two touchdowns in the 2019 season. Elliott has led the NFL twice in rushing in his four seasons. He has 5,405 yards and 40 touchdowns on 1,169 carries and 189 receptions for 1,619 yards and eight touchdowns in his career.

 

Henry led the NFL in rushing in 2019 with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns on 303 carries, and he also was the leading rusher in the playoffs with 446 yards and two touchdowns on 83 carries in three games.

Before Henry, the most recent player to lead the league in rushing yards in the regular season and the playoffs was another former Alabama standout, Shaun Alexander, in 2005 for the Seattle Seahawks.

In his four NFL seasons, Henry has 3,833 yards and 38 touchdowns on 804 carries and 57 receptions for 578 yards and three touchdowns.

The sports financial website spotrac.com estimates Henry’s market value as meriting a four-year, $55.3 million contract. Among the NFL’s running backs, only Elliott and the Los Angeles Rams’ Todd Gurley have contracts larger than Henry’s estimated value.

 

“Just take it one day at a time and then see what happens,” Henry said. “Eventually, something’s going to happen, so it ain’t no reason in rushing it. Just let it play out. Get with my agent, talk to the team and then see how it goes from there. I’m new to this.”

Henry said he hoped he wouldn't reach free agency since he preferred to re-sign with the Titans.

“I hope they prevent it from happening,” Henry said. “I love Tennessee. I’d love to stay in Tennessee.”

The Titans don’t have to re-sign Henry to keep him for the 2020 season. Tennessee could use its franchise tag to retain the running back. The sports financial website overthecap.com estimates the franchise-tag value for running backs in 2020 will be $12.474 million.

 

 

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Dont like him. Will end up being a top ten pick, his running style lets defenders tee up on him and he has zero to no pass game involvement. If he doesnt get a td which fluctuates yearly, you are basically looking at a dud weak.  

Pass.

I would rather have chubb, zeke, kamara, barkely, and possibly fournette who is basically the same guy who actually catches passes.

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10 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Dont like him. Will end up being a top ten pick, his running style lets defenders tee up on him and he has zero to no pass game involvement. If he doesnt get a td which fluctuates yearly, you are basically looking at a dud weak.  

Pass.

I would rather have chubb, zeke, kamara, barkely, and possibly fournette who is basically the same guy who actually catches passes.

I hear you on his weaknesses, but calling Fournette “the same guy” as Henry is pretty laughably wrong.

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30 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Dont like him. Will end up being a top ten pick, his running style lets defenders tee up on him and he has zero to no pass game involvement. If he doesnt get a td which fluctuates yearly, you are basically looking at a dud weak.  

Pass.

I would rather have chubb, zeke, kamara, barkely, and possibly fournette who is basically the same guy who actually catches passes.

 

Every majority needs a minority to keep the conversation going so I appreciate your input.

 

He will be drafted like the top 3 RB that he is.

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44 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Dont like him. Will end up being a top ten pick, his running style lets defenders tee up on him and he has zero to no pass game involvement. If he doesnt get a td which fluctuates yearly, you are basically looking at a dud weak.  

Pass.

I would rather have chubb, zeke, kamara, barkely, and possibly fournette who is basically the same guy who actually catches passes.

I'm sure someone else or maybe yourself made this exact same post last season regarding Henry's 2019 outlook.

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28 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Here we go again! Ha

 

love me some henry, but he may be a little too expensive for my tastes this season, for reasons said above(ppr)

Seems like there is no middle ground on Henry. Either you are all in or all out.

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Every majority needs a minority to keep the conversation going so I appreciate your input.

 

He will be drafted like the top 3 RB that he is.

In ppr?

Zeke, Barkley, CMC, Cook, Kamara in ppr, Chubb, and YES fournette who caught quadruple the amount of passes henry did at 74 which is outstanding. Not a top 3 ppr rb at all. 

 

Top 10 maybe but in any kind of ppr i am not touching him, you are banking on a td and unfortunately 2019 stats dont transfer over.

Edited by nmartinez12443
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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Why wouldn’t the Titans re-sign him?


See: Gurley, Zeke, Bell contracts vs Superbowl wins

 

Not paying the stud RB is basically always the right choice in the current passing era. They don't have the luxury of a good QB on a rookie deal to mitigate throwing a huge contract at Henry.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

Seems like there is no middle ground on Henry. Either you are all in or all out.

Excellent reply, im definitely rooting for him, but u hit the nail on the head with this one

 

now...disclaimer, 12-14 team ppr snake draft, im sitting at the turn and hes there, sure, any earlier, im out

 

 

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4 minutes ago, sSektor said:


See: Gurley, Zeke, Bell contracts vs Superbowl wins

 

Not paying the stud RB is basically always the right choice in the current passing era. They don't have the luxury of a good QB on a rookie deal to mitigate throwing a huge contract at Henry.

The same argument can be made for any position except QB or pass rusher.

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7 minutes ago, devaster said:

The same argument can be made for any position except QB or pass rusher.

 

Would also include a good offensive tackle as something that's usually always worth the investment. Maybe one highly paid pass catcher but definitely no more than that.

 

Interesting thing to note the Chiefs combined cap hit for Kelce, Hill, and Watkins this year alone was almost 50 million. No chance that is possible without Mahomes on a rookie deal.

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26 minutes ago, sSektor said:


See: Gurley, Zeke, Bell contracts vs Superbowl wins

 

Not paying the stud RB is basically always the right choice in the current passing era. They don't have the luxury of a good QB on a rookie deal to mitigate throwing a huge contract at Henry.

Point taken.  But if they lose Henry, they know they will have to re-invent their entire offense and wallow in mediocrity for years to come.  I think Robinson knows it may not make financial sense, but it’s in the club’s best interest for the time they have a window to win it all.

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Point taken.  But if they lose Henry, they know they will have to re-invent their entire offense and wallow in mediocrity for years to come.  I think Robinson knows it may not make financial sense, but it’s in the club’s best interest for the time they have a window to win it all.


They could draft a somewhat competent replacement this year. It really depends on how much they give their QB of the future (assuming Tannehill), whether they decide to pick up Corey Davis 5th year option, and if they value defensive/o-line improvements more than Henry. Titans do have the benefit of what looks to be an emerging stud WR on a rookie contract in AJB so they can reasonably fit Henry with a big contract into the cap.

 

I will never understand why they gave Humphries 7 million a year to do next to nothing though.

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42 minutes ago, sSektor said:

 

Would also include a good offensive tackle as something that's usually always worth the investment. Maybe one highly paid pass catcher but definitely no more than that.

 

Interesting thing to note the Chiefs combined cap hit for Kelce, Hill, and Watkins this year alone was almost 50 million. No chance that is possible without Mahomes on a rookie deal.

And they will hope they can continue to draft well at the WR position and hit on fast guys. Hardman is already there to step in.

I swear people were complaining about receivers being paid a lot of money in some threads this season and showing the stat for teams winning the SB and not paying their WR's. The exception being the Eagles and Chiefs recently.

Not all teams are built the same. And the cheap a** Patriots have skewed that argument for the last 20 years.

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22 minutes ago, devaster said:

And they will hope they can continue to draft well at the WR position and hit on fast guys. Hardman is already there to step in.

I swear people were complaining about receivers being paid a lot of money in some threads this season and showing the stat for teams winning the SB and not paying their WR's. The exception being the Eagles and Chiefs recently.

Not all teams are built the same. And the cheap a** Patriots have skewed that argument for the last 20 years.

 

That's the thing though, the Eagles and Chiefs didn't have QBs on market setting contracts so they could afford those WR contracts. Similar was the Broncos with Sanders and DT but there was a big salary cap bump right after they were signed from what I recall. Next closest is what, 2011 Rodgers before his huge contract in 2013? It's either QBs on cheap deals + highly paid weapons or highly paid QBs and cheaper weapons. Pats haven't skewed the trend as much as one might think.

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16 minutes ago, sSektor said:

 

That's the thing though, the Eagles and Chiefs didn't have QBs on market setting contracts so they could afford those WR contracts. Similar was the Broncos with Sanders and DT but there was a big salary cap bump right after they were signed from what I recall. Next closest is what, 2011 Rodgers before his huge contract in 2013? It's either QBs on cheap deals + highly paid weapons or highly paid QBs and cheaper weapons. Pats haven't skewed the trend as much as one might think.

Rodgers was already well paid. Rodgers was in the league for quite a long time already when he won a SB since he sat behind Favre for a few years.

You are correct though. Teams either win with a QB on a cheap contract and paying other guys or the other way around. Both work. It all comes down to drafting well ultimately.

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