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Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook


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Barkley - Out for season CMC - Has been out most of the season who knows his status for rest of season Sanders - in and out of the lineup Drake - Huge bust before getting injured M

If Henry got COVID his body would immediately synthesize an antiviral to it. Henry would then exhale it throughout the Western Hemisphere (at minimum), ending the pandemic.   (Alshon's soft tissu

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13 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

So, if I am hearing you correctly you should not have drafted Barkley last year cause he was coming off of a career year the year before?

This year you are staying away from Chubb and cook because they had career years last year?

Henry had a career season in 2018. Should he have not been drafted in 2019?

Solid strategy, guys never put up back to back good years unless they do.

Guys never put up back to back good years unless they do? Wow really? Thanks for that insight. I can't wait for "it is what it is."

The point which seems to have flown over your head is not that they aren't good prospects, but that they will probably be over valued. Players rarely match or exceed a career year (i.e. a very good/great season) the following year. That's why it's called a "career year." Barkley is a ridiculous example because he only had one year prior, so by definition it was a "career year" and we don't know what his career will shape up as, but it was more than reasonable to assume at least comparable numbers last year, given his talent, the allegedly improved OL etc etc.  And yes, I am staying away from Chubb and Cook, who IMO are great prospects but will be over valued (Chubb I'm a little higher on due to an improved OL). Again I have followed this strat many times over the years, almost always with modest to great success, and it isn't hard to look back at league leaders in rushing/receiving/passing categories and notice how often they even came close to matching that performance the next year, 

 

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10 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I’d also suggest laying off the pipe. 

Tbf there's reason to be fading Cook and Chubb.

Cook for health and holdout reasons (especially at 3 with Zeke or Kamara there) and Chubb for how much his production fell when Hunt returned

Just not sure if the "career year" explanation is it though

1 hour ago, bomont said:

Guys never put up back to back good years unless they do? Wow really? Thanks for that insight. I can't wait for "it is what it is."

The point which seems to have flown over your head is not that they aren't good prospects, but that they will probably be over valued. Players rarely match or exceed a career year (i.e. a very good/great season) the following year. That's why it's called a "career year." Barkley is a ridiculous example because he only had one year prior, so by definition it was a "career year" and we don't know what his career will shape up as, but it was more than reasonable to assume at least comparable numbers last year, given his talent, the allegedly improved OL etc etc.  And yes, I am staying away from Chubb and Cook, who IMO are great prospects but will be over valued (Chubb I'm a little higher on due to an improved OL). Again I have followed this strat many times over the years, almost always with modest to great success, and it isn't hard to look back at league leaders in rushing/receiving/passing categories and notice how often they even came close to matching that performance the next year, 

.

How does this work for a late season surge guy like Henry before last season (2018 was a career year just for the last few weeks--would you have avoided him?) or for 2nd year players like Jacobs/Sanders or AJB/DK.

I think there can be obvious indications a player's production is unsustainable. For me I see that in Cook based on health even before factoring in holdout concerns and to a lesser extent in Chubb for Hunt being there, but I don't think "they just had a career year" alone is applicable in all situation as a reason to avoid

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I don't either. But I didn't say just avoid them. I said I probably will because they will likely cost too much because people are chasing last year. For the right price i'll buy almost anyone.

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5 hours ago, 30Burger said:

Is it crazy to consider taking Henry over Kamara in standard? 

As someone who is a huge Kamara fan (in ppr formats) and who has consistently made fun of DHC in previous years (in all formats):

No, that's not crazy.

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16 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

As someone who is a huge Kamara fan (in ppr formats) and who has consistently made fun of DHC in previous years (in all formats):

No, that's not crazy.

 

Usually takes the pack a year or so to catch up with the lead scout.

 

Taking Henry over Kamara in standard should be the standard.

 

 

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Usually takes the pack a year or so to catch up with the lead scout.

 

Taking Henry over Kamara in standard should be the standard.

 

 

 

If anything not taking Henry over Kamara in standard is crazy. half-ppr slight edge to AK , full ppr definitely Alvin.  I fully expect King Hendry to regress a bit in 2020 & Kamara should bounce back nicely. 

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25 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

If anything not taking Henry over Kamara in standard is crazy. half-ppr slight edge to AK , full ppr definitely Alvin.  I fully expect King Hendry to regress a bit in 2020 & Kamara should bounce back nicely. 

 

Henry played 8 games last year with Mariota at QB, thrived once Tannehill took over. They replaced a veteran backup RB with a rookie on a shortened off season due to covid and Henry is due for regression?

 

If by regression you mean 1,600+ rushing yards and 18-20TDs then I fully agree with you.

 

CMC is the one due for regression this season, as much as it pains me to say it.

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56 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Henry played 8 games last year with Mariota at QB, thrived once Tannehill took over. They replaced a veteran backup RB with a rookie on a shortened off season due to covid and Henry is due for regression?

 

If by regression you mean 1,600+ rushing yards and 18-20TDs then I fully agree with you.

 

CMC is the one due for regression this season, as much as it pains me to say it.

 

Don’t talk crazy please ... & I forgot that bum Mariota started for so many games. That just might be your saving grace ... as far Henry regressing. Ohh and without a doubt McCaffrey will do worse this year then last.  

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On 6/28/2020 at 4:29 PM, 30Burger said:

Is it crazy to consider taking Henry over Kamara in standard? 

Kamara is such a pain in the a** to own in standard. After week 5 last season Kamara didn't have a single game with 15 carries. He didn't have a single game last year with 100 rushing yards either. Hell, he only had 4 games with over 100 scrimmage yards.

It's hilarious how absurdly TD dependent he was and the problem with that is he doesn't even have a GL role secured. There's Murray and that bitch a** Hill to deal with. In PPR, he is still a nice pick because he gets a ton of dump offs but in standard I wouldn't want anything to do with Kamara at his ADP. 

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Kamara is such a pain in the a** to own in standard. After week 5 last season Kamara didn't have a single game with 15 carries. He didn't have a single game last year with 100 rushing yards either. Hell, he only had 4 games with over 100 scrimmage yards.

It's hilarious how absurdly TD dependent he was and the problem with that is he doesn't even have a GL role secured. There's Murray and that bitch a** Hill to deal with. In PPR, he is still a nice pick because he gets a ton of dump offs but in standard I wouldn't want anything to do with Kamara at his ADP. 

Owned a ton of Kamara last year and the hatred I’ve developed for Taysom is unhealthy lol

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On 6/30/2020 at 4:17 PM, Gohawks said:

Kamara is such a pain in the a** to own in standard. After week 5 last season Kamara didn't have a single game with 15 carries. He didn't have a single game last year with 100 rushing yards either. Hell, he only had 4 games with over 100 scrimmage yards.

It's hilarious how absurdly TD dependent he was and the problem with that is he doesn't even have a GL role secured. There's Murray and that bitch a** Hill to deal with. In PPR, he is still a nice pick because he gets a ton of dump offs but in standard I wouldn't want anything to do with Kamara at his ADP. 


I said something similar to this last year about him being TD dependent and got ridiculed for it lol it really made me second guess myself which I ultimately regretted once I drafted him.
He probably will never have 1000 yard rushing season and while he gets 81 catches like clock work he still needs double digit TDs to be a top 5 back that everyone wants from him. Id still love to have him obviously but I think I’d rather have a later pick and take stabs at guys like drake later. Maybe I’m just kinda jaded from last year. 

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15 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


I said something similar to this last year about him being TD dependent and got ridiculed for it lol it really made me second guess myself which I ultimately regretted once I drafted him.
He probably will never have 1000 yard rushing season and while he gets 81 catches like clock work he still needs double digit TDs to be a top 5 back that everyone wants from him. Id still love to have him obviously but I think I’d rather have a later pick and take stabs at guys like drake later. Maybe I’m just kinda jaded from last year. 

 

Kamara is a stud, just had a down year is all. He’s a lock for double digit TD’s in 2020. 

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On 6/29/2020 at 5:36 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Usually takes the pack a year or so to catch up with the lead scout.

 

Taking Henry over Kamara in standard should be the standard.

 

 


Well it took 3 years for Henry’s play to catch up with his hype...

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

It's good to see him become what I always knew was there. 

 

Thank you

If memory serves, you regarded him as a potential 1RB?

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