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Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook


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If Henry got COVID his body would immediately synthesize an antiviral to it. Henry would then exhale it throughout the Western Hemisphere (at minimum), ending the pandemic.   (Alshon's soft tissu

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1 hour ago, LacesOut said:

Barring an injury its hard to see him not being a pretty clear RB1 by season end. 

Not really. He has looked extremely pedestrian this year. And he's around the RB25. Granted if guys keep dropping like flies he'll fall into the RB1 tier simply by staying healthy. 

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I keep seeing the same narrative in here - "he always starts slow". The team only committed to him for one year, and really built the offense around him (with Tannehill) in the second half of last year, so it's not like we have a five year sample of him starting slow then dominating. One season does not make a trend. This is nothing more than wishful thinking. It's just as likely he breaks down in the second half from being on pace for 400+ touches than he "picks it up". 

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2 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I keep seeing the same narrative in here - "he always starts slow". The team only committed to him for one year, and really built the offense around him in the second half of last year, so it's not like we have a five year sample of him starting slow then dominating. One season does not make a trend. This is nothing more than wishful thinking. It's just as likely he breaks down in the second half from being on pace for 400+ touches than he "picks it up". 

Man, I hope you keep this same energy after he has his first monster game.  I want to see the same amount of posts from you when he has 165 yards and 2 tds.  

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10 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Man, I hope you keep this same energy after he has his first monster game.  I want to see the same amount of posts from you when he has 165 yards and 2 tds.  

I'm not saying it won't happen, but as someone mentioned, he's extremely reliant on TDs, big plays, and gamescript. And I know I'm beating a dead horse, but nothing we've seen out of him thus far this year (barring health) has been encouraging. 

It's not like we have a five year sample of the guy. He had one good year, and like a 10-11 game stretch where he was really dominant. That's just too small of a sample for me to say it's a lock he'll do the same again. 

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2 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I'm not saying it won't happen, but as someone mentioned, he's extremely reliant on TDs, big plays, and gamescript. And I know I'm beating a dead horse, but nothing we've seen out of him thus far this year (barring health) has been encouraging. 

It's not like we have a five year sample of the guy. He has one good year, and like a 10-11 game stretch where he was really dominant. That's just too small of a sample for me to say it's a lock he'll do the same again. 

Nothing has been encouraging???  He's the clear workhorse on a team that likes to pound the ball.  He has 56 carries thru 2 games.  Big games are coming.

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14 minutes ago, UFGator said:

Nothing has been encouraging???  He's the clear workhorse on a team that likes to pound the ball.  He has 56 carries thru 2 games.  Big games are coming.

His touches are going to take a hit once that Evans kid comes back. He seems like a pretty talented player.

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35 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I'm not saying it won't happen, but as someone mentioned, he's extremely reliant on TDs, big plays, and gamescript. And I know I'm beating a dead horse, but nothing we've seen out of him thus far this year (barring health) has been encouraging. 

It's not like we have a five year sample of the guy. He had one good year, and like a 10-11 game stretch where he was really dominant. That's just too small of a sample for me to say it's a lock he'll do the same again. 

 

Lol, all RBs are reliant on TDs, big plays and gamescript. 

 

Josh jacobs got goal line TDs taken away last night, is he pedestrian as well?

 

#2 rusher in the NFL has nothing to worry about.

 

Arrow pointing up.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

#2 rusher in the NFL looks "pedestrian" 😂

 

So does your argument.

 

Is 3.6 YPC pedestrian? I would say it is. Do I think he will go a full season with a 3.6? of course not. He will have big plays and get touchdowns and finish as a RB1 but saying he hasn't been pedestrian so far because he is the #2 rusher in the NFL based on volume is a very weak argument

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1 hour ago, UFGator said:

Nothing has been encouraging???  He's the clear workhorse on a team that likes to pound the ball.  He has 56 carries thru 2 games.  Big games are coming.

We knew this already. When I look for things that are encouraging I'm looking for things beyond what we already knew. We knew he'd get touches and they liked to run, that was a given. 

What we didn't know is would he have the same success as last year, score as many TDs, be as efficient, be more involved in the pass game, etc.? 

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Lol, all RBs are reliant on TDs, big plays and gamescript. 

Josh jacobs got goal line TDs taken away last night, is he pedestrian as well?

#2 rusher in the NFL has nothing to worry about.

Arrow pointing up.

3.5 yards per carry isn't even pedestrian, it's downright awful. Worst 2-game stretch of his career (with at least 10 carries). These were two perfect games in terms of gamescript for Henry to dominate. 

I'll ask again since it still hasn't been answered. What's been encouraging that we didn't already know? We knew he'd get a lot of touches, especially with his direct backup hurt. That's not encouraging, it's a given. 

No they're not. CMC isn't gamescript dependent, neither is Saquon, neither is Zeke, neither is Kamara, neither is Cook, neither is CEH, neither is Jones, etc. They all can play in hurry-up and they all catch passes. And virtually none of them are big play dependent. 

He's the number two rusher because he's had so many carries. Literally any JAG would be a top rusher with that many carries. 

Only reason why the arrow is pointing up is outside of injury it couldn't be much worse. 

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1 hour ago, mrschrod said:

 

Is 3.6 YPC pedestrian? I would say it is. Do I think he will go a full season with a 3.6? of course not. He will have big plays and get touchdowns and finish as a RB1 but saying he hasn't been pedestrian so far because he is the #2 rusher in the NFL based on volume is a very weak argument

 

I'm not 100% sure, but I think @DerrickHenrysCleats is probably a fan of Derrick Henry, so you might not get the response you want from him.  Barking up the wrong tree.

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1 hour ago, mrschrod said:

 

Is 3.6 YPC pedestrian? I would say it is. Do I think he will go a full season with a 3.6? of course not. He will have big plays and get touchdowns and finish as a RB1 but saying he hasn't been pedestrian so far because he is the #2 rusher in the NFL based on volume is a very weak argument

 

Do you get fantasy points for ypc?

 

Asking for a friend.

 

I'll hang up and listen.

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15 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

3.5 yards per carry isn't even pedestrian, it's downright awful. Worst 2-game stretch of his career (with at least 10 carries). These were two perfect games in terms of gamescript for Henry to dominate. 

I'll ask again since it still hasn't been answered. What's been encouraging that we didn't already know? We knew he'd get a lot of touches, especially with his direct backup hurt. That's not encouraging, it's a given. 

No they're not. CMC isn't gamescript dependent, neither is Saquon, neither is Zeke, neither is Kamara, neither is Cook, neither is CEH, neither is Jones, etc. They all can play in hurry-up and they all catch passes. And virtually none of them are big play dependent. 

He's the number two rusher because he's had so many carries. Literally any JAG would be a top rusher with that many carries. 

Only reason why the arrow is pointing up is outside of injury it couldn't be much worse. 

 

Cmc and Barkley have to be a available to be better than Henry. Neither one was a better ball carrier than henry last year or this year. 

 

Henry is involved in the passing game I'm sure you haven't seen it cause it does not help your narrative. 

 

Same thing is encouraging this year as last year. If you want to make a season long indictment of a player after 2 weeks then that is up to you. 

 

As mentioned before Tannehills red zone passing TDs will not continue, he is on pace for 48 red zone TDs. Plenty of those will go to Henry, if you can not exercise patience then maybe you should move on from him. If you are just here to take the contrarian view and troll then carry on.

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So the best thing going for this guy is that he started slow last year and at least he’s not injured yet.  Great lol.  A big red flag here is that he’s played 2 garbage teams with favorable game scripts.  He hasn’t even seen a good defense or an unfavorable game script yet.  

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57 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Do you get fantasy points for ypc?

 

Asking for a friend.

 

I'll hang up and listen.

 

I do get more points on a 5.0 YPC than a 3.6 YPC assuming the same amount of carries

I do agree it would be smart for you to hang up and listen though!

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1 hour ago, kp96 said:

 

I'm not 100% sure, but I think @DerrickHenrysCleats is probably a fan of Derrick Henry, so you might not get the response you want from him.  Barking up the wrong tree.

 

Are you saying that someone can't say see a negative about a player just because they are a fan of that player? if that's the case, fantasy football isn't the game for you. Objectiveness is what wins fantasy football. Derrick Henry will be a RB1 by end of year (barring injury). He gets too much volume. The touchdowns will come. Has he also disappointed so far for his draft position? Yes, he has. I see both of those as two objective facts. Do I think he will continue to disappoint? No, I don't, which is why I wouldn't be looking to trade him and would be looking to buy if someone is selling cheap. But I'm also not going to sugar coat and act like he has been good when 3.6 YPC is not

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1 minute ago, mrschrod said:

 

Are you saying that someone can't say see a negative about a player just because they are a fan of that player? if that's the case, fantasy football isn't the game for you. Objectiveness is what wins fantasy football. Derrick Henry will be a RB1 by end of year (barring injury). He gets too much volume. The touchdowns will come. Has he also disappointed so far for his draft position? Yes, he has. I see both of those as two objective facts. Do I think he will continue to disappoint? No, I don't, which is why I wouldn't be looking to trade him and would be looking to buy if someone is selling cheap. But I'm also not going to sugar coat and act like he has been good when 3.6 YPC is not

 

Cmc and Saquon have dissapointed based on their draft positions so far.

 

When you drafted Henry did you have a specific ypc after 2 weeks that you were looking for?

 

Henry did the same as Josh Jacobs week 2...

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

So you don't get points for ypc? 

 

Got it.

 

 

 

Are you happy with 3.6 YPC?

This is such a stupid argument to have. You can still like a player and say he has been disappointing so far. I like Joe Mixon. Has he been disappointing? Yes. See how easy that is? Now you try.

And as I said in my previous post, I don't think this continues, and I would buy Derrick Henry, but to never say anything negative about someone just because you like them is foolish.

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Cmc and Saquon have dissapointed based on their draft positions so far.

 

When you drafted Henry did you have a specific ypc after 2 weeks that you were looking for?

 

Henry did the same as Josh Jacobs week 2...

 

CMC hasn't disappointed so far, but he will moving forward because he won't be playing. Saquon absolutely has. I'm not talking about them though as this is the Derrick Henry thread.

When I drafted Henry, I expected close to career norms, 4.7 YPC. He hasn't done that yet. I think he will definitely get closer to that as the season goes on, but he hasn't yet.

As for Josh Jacobs, he was also the #1 RB last week. Derrick Henry was not.

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53 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Cmc and Barkley have to be a available to be better than Henry. Neither one was a better ball carrier than henry last year or this year. 

Henry is involved in the passing game I'm sure you haven't seen it cause it does not help your narrative. 

Same thing is encouraging this year as last year. If you want to make a season long indictment of a player after 2 weeks then that is up to you. 

 

As mentioned before Tannehills red zone passing TDs will not continue, he is on pace for 48 red zone TDs. Plenty of those will go to Henry, if you can not exercise patience then maybe you should move on from him. If you are just here to take the contrarian view and troll then carry on.

It's not trolling, it's being able to be objective. It's ok to say he's sucked thus far, and he's been a bust thus far. Way too early to write off his season, but I don't like what I see. 

When I ask what's been encouraging that you've seen this year, by answering "same as last year" doesn't work, because again, him being a bellcow and getting touches was a given. 

He is unequivocally not seen nor used as a receiving back. You watch the games, you know this. There was chatter of an effort being made to utilize him more in the passing game. That's clearly not true. 

So again, in terms of what an owner would be looking for in terms of encouraging takeaways. Him demonstrating he's gonna be a TD machine again. No. The team making a clear effort to get him more receptions. No. Him being as efficient with his touches as last year. No. 

If these were games where they win 10-7 or were trailing 21-0 then I wouldn't be as concerned, but these two games were tailor made for Henry to produce and he quite frankly hasn't. 

If we gotta hang our hat on the fact that he's "available", it's gonna be a long year. 

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