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Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook


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1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

And also

As he continues to impress evaluators with his play this season, I reached out to five NFL personnel executives and asked them to make an NFL player comp for Henry. Here are their answers.

Executive 1: Brandon Jacobs
"Hard one, but I'll say Brandon Jacobs in his prime. Both are tall guys, although Henry is a little faster."

Executive 2: LeGarrette Blount
"Reminds me of Blount. Big upper bodies, leaner lower half. Both lack ideal foot quickness and wiggle when things get congested near the line of scrimmage. Both need space and room to operate."

Executive 3: Eddie Lacy
"He reminds me of another Alabama runner, Eddie Lacy. Similar style."

Executive 4: Brandon Jacobs
"First guy that comes to mind is Jacobs. Not many guys that size to compare."

Executive 5: Brandon Jacobs
"Same size. Same everything."


As a Giants fan for 30+ years, I can strongly vouch that Henry >>>>> Jacobs. 
 

Jacobs never maximized his power — he’d dance in the hole instead of hitting it hard. Plus he was a fumbler. Big reasons he was never a three-down RB. 

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3 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I think in terms of running style and lack of break away speed and agility, he is closer to Jacobs. They run the same 40 yard dash and agility is similar, despite giving up 20 pounds to Henry.  Henry is a bruiser, like Jacobs the comp is very accurate. Both with limited catching ability.


Lacks break away speed? I thought Henry had all sorts of long runs.

6 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yes, Henry is the most explosive RB in space. Do you know of another RB who has more explosive plays than Henry over the last 2 seasons? I've always known explosive plays to mean those of 60+ yds or more. I'm pretty sure Henry owns that.

 

It's funny you mention all those guys and Henry outperformed every single one in PPR except CMC. Yet you say to draft them plus about 5 more before Henry and Henrys situation has done nothing but get better. 

What reason are you giving for Henrys regression?

Henry is such a dominant rusher that he doesn't need as many catches as some other RBs to help buoy their rushing stats and the amount of games they will miss due to injury.

1st season Henry was committed to as the starting RB and he put up over 1,500 yards rushing and he added 200 receiving yards and 2 TDs to go along with 16 rushing TDs, was also Arthur Smith's 1st season calling plays. Henry had 18 catches and he is capable of doubling that. Dion Lewis has been released and even a rookie RB is not going to come in with enough experience to take all pass catching work for the Titans. Any way you look at it Henrys catches are going to go up this season.

You scoff at him reaching 2,000 all purpose yards when he had 1,746 all purpose yards last year and they just released Dion lewis, and Mariota started 4 of the 15 games Henry started last year. Henry had 12 TDs on 240 touches in 2018, then last year had 18 TDs on 331 touches.

 

With a huge contract and the starting position all to himself, another 300+ season incoming it's a pretty safe bet that he will get between 15-20 TDs, that seems fairly obvious. I think if Henry plays a full 16 games it certainly is possible for him to hit 1,600 yards rushing and 400 receiving yards and 32 or so catches. If you have watched Henry you know he can catch, it's just a matter of them using him more and that seems highly likely. 

Anywho, his TDs, provided he stays healthy, will almost certainly be between 15-20, his rushing will be around 1,500 or more and almost regardless of what he chips in in the receiving game it will be enough to keep him as a top 5 RB.

 

yanno I want Henry to dominate as much as you DHC but I could see a small regression coming as well. If he gets paid especially. Backs don’t seem to produce as much once they get big money. Idk why but it’s a ongoing pattern. 
 

Also we know Henry is very TD dependent. Yea he does score a whole lot of TDs that just means the odds of him getting a TD are high but without the TDs his fantasy season is just average. A guy like fournette scores 3 TDs all year and is still a top 10 back. If Henry only has 3 TDs next season it could be a average to awful season because he contributes almost nothing in the passing game. 
we also know that TDs are one of the most difficult stats to predict. emmitt smith was a touch down monster but he had a season with just 6 total TDs when he was 28 years old in an era when they thought RBs were the 2nd most important players on the team. If it can happen to emmitt in that era it can happen to Derrick Henry. 
 

The only stat harder To predict than TDs may be long runs. Henry has a lot of these but they could stop at any moment for a variety of reasons. Look at saquon rookie year compared to last year. Seemed like every game he had a 50 yard play then one ankle injury and he’s not the same guy for 8 weeks.
 

for the most part I’m with ya DHC. I think Henry will be an RB1 but if he isn’t it wouldn’t shock me. 

Edited by Stonej14
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Jacobs' longest run was 73 yards. His next longest was 44. They might have run similar 40's, but Jacobs never showed it on the field. And Henry runs faster than his 40 and can shake off tacklers while doing it.

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9 hours ago, Stonej14 said:


Lacks break away speed? I thought Henry had all sorts of long runs.

 

yanno I want Henry to dominate as much as you DHC but I could see a small regression coming as well. If he gets paid especially. Backs don’t seem to produce as much once they get big money. Idk why but it’s a ongoing pattern. 
 

Also we know Henry is very TD dependent. Yea he does score a whole lot of TDs that just means the odds of him getting a TD are high but without the TDs his fantasy season is just average. A guy like fournette scores 3 TDs all year and is still a top 10 back. If Henry only has 3 TDs next season it could be a average to awful season because he contributes almost nothing in the passing game. 
we also know that TDs are one of the most difficult stats to predict. emmitt smith was a touch down monster but he had a season with just 6 total TDs when he was 28 years old in an era when they thought RBs were the 2nd most important players on the team. If it can happen to emmitt in that era it can happen to Derrick Henry. 
 

The only stat harder To predict than TDs may be long runs. Henry has a lot of these but they could stop at any moment for a variety of reasons. Look at saquon rookie year compared to last year. Seemed like every game he had a 50 yard play then one ankle injury and he’s not the same guy for 8 weeks.
 

for the most part I’m with ya DHC. I think Henry will be an RB1 but if he isn’t it wouldn’t shock me. 

 

I guess that's one way to look at it.

 

I find it HIGHLY unlikely Henry scores 6 or less TDs unless he misses multiple games due to injury.

 

I believe you make a valid point about RBs signing a fat contract and then maybe not doing so well afterwards I just don't believe that is the case with Henry. If you know him or have followed him he is a very humble, coachable, and team oriented players. I believe that is what keeps him grounded and he really wants to win a super bowl, he has won a championship at every level he has ever played and that drives him so I don't believe he falls off statistically this season just because he got paid, especially when his situation has done nothing but improve since last season. 4 games they played with Mariota at QB which we all saw how that held back the whole offense. Now they will start the season with the most coaching staff continuity Henry has ever had and Tannehill starting all season. 

 

I guess regression is possible I just don't see what reasons people are pointing to as to why that might happen. 

 

Henry is gonna have another 300+ season and will be the goalie back. Even if his TDs have to make up for a lack of a few receptions he is gonna have those opportunities to post double digits TD numbers.

 

What will have changed from a football perspective from last year to this year that will make Henry less effective?

 

Doesn't every RB take a hit if you take his TDs away? I mean Henry posts those TDs cause he is an elite RB, it's unfair to try and subtract Henrys TDs and say they are hard to predict. Well what if you took away fournettes catches? He would have had a bottom of the barrel season. If you are predicting Fournette to have similar catches to last season then it seems reasonable to assume Henry will maintain his explosive TD making ability.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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@DerrickHenrysCleats KingHenry2K wouldn’t surprise me in the least.  The PPR concerns are funny and totally overblown.   Henry will be a top 5 back if healthy because he’s the cog that makes that beastly Oline churn out yards.  Scoring format aside.  
 

Tanny is multidimensional enough...with a real weapon on the edge in AJB.   You can’t simply park 9 in the box and expect to contain both parts of this offense.  That’s why they won 7 out of their last 10 games,  beat the Pats and Ravens in playoffs, and gave the SB champ Chiefs everything they could handle.    I’d reconsider letting Conklin walk-  he’s easily the best player available at his position in FA.   Draft a rookie but let him develop.  
 

The Jacobs comp is truly brutal.  But if we close one eye...squint hard....and completely ignore the film in favor of combine measurements....   sure.    AP is a much better comp on the field.   I’d also accept Earl Campbell or Ricky Williams.  Big plow horses with great vision who can really move.  

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Pretty simple, because of his lack of catches, in order for Henry to be a top 10 back he has to score 12 tds, which is both VERY hard to predict and VERY hard to do. In standard, yeah hes top 10 no doubt. 

Your first 2 picks need to be as safe as possible.

Obvious RBs over Henry in Full ppr: CMC, Barkley, Zeke, Chubb, Cook, and Kamara

Obvious WRs: Adams, Nuk, Thomas

TE- Kelce

Thats 10 players that most definitely should be drafted over Henry.

Then you have guys like 

? Rbs: Fournette (has a td rate equal to Henry, but actually catches passes),

Carson (have to see that he is 100%, but if he is he has the backfield to himself and has shown good passing chops and is in a contract year)

Aaron Jones (plays on a better offense, involved in the passing game, scores a high rate of tds).

Mixon 

WRs- Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill

So as I have said with henry we are really splitting hairs, but in a full ppr weekly league like most are hes not a top 12 pick, top 24 sure, but even then I wouldnt want him as my 2nd round pick. 

 

Last year the consensus was he was a around a 3/4th rounder. He has a career year and a ton of tds, now hes a top 5 pick, nah. He is still the same player who doesnt catch. 

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6 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Pretty simple, because of his lack of catches, in order for Henry to be a top 10 back he has to score 12 tds, which is both VERY hard to predict and VERY hard to do. In standard, yeah hes top 10 no doubt. 

Your first 2 picks need to be as safe as possible.

Obvious RBs over Henry in Full ppr: CMC, Barkley, Zeke, Chubb, Cook, and Kamara

Obvious WRs: Adams, Nuk, Thomas

TE- Kelce

Thats 10 players that most definitely should be drafted over Henry.

Then you have guys like 

? Rbs: Fournette (has a td rate equal to Henry, but actually catches passes),

Carson (have to see that he is 100%, but if he is he has the backfield to himself and has shown good passing chops and is in a contract year)

Aaron Jones (plays on a better offense, involved in the passing game, scores a high rate of tds).

Mixon 

WRs- Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill

So as I have said with henry we are really splitting hairs, but in a full ppr weekly league like most are hes not a top 12 pick, top 24 sure, but even then I wouldnt want him as my 2nd round pick. 

 

Last year the consensus was he was a around a 3/4th rounder. He has a career year and a ton of tds, now hes a top 5 pick, nah. He is still the same player who doesnt catch. 

12 TDs isnt hard to do considering how the Titans offense likes to play..... 

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49 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Pretty simple, because of his lack of catches, in order for Henry to be a top 10 back he has to score 12 tds, which is both VERY hard to predict and VERY hard to do. In standard, yeah hes top 10 no doubt. 

Your first 2 picks need to be as safe as possible.

Obvious RBs over Henry in Full ppr: CMC, Barkley, Zeke, Chubb, Cook, and Kamara

Obvious WRs: Adams, Nuk, Thomas

TE- Kelce

Thats 10 players that most definitely should be drafted over Henry.

Then you have guys like 

? Rbs: Fournette (has a td rate equal to Henry, but actually catches passes),

Carson (have to see that he is 100%, but if he is he has the backfield to himself and has shown good passing chops and is in a contract year)

Aaron Jones (plays on a better offense, involved in the passing game, scores a high rate of tds).

Mixon 

WRs- Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill

So as I have said with henry we are really splitting hairs, but in a full ppr weekly league like most are hes not a top 12 pick, top 24 sure, but even then I wouldnt want him as my 2nd round pick. 

 

Last year the consensus was he was a around a 3/4th rounder. He has a career year and a ton of tds, now hes a top 5 pick, nah. He is still the same player who doesnt catch. 

 

Hard for Henry to get to 12 TDs? Are we watching the same player? He has done that in back to back seasons and 1 of those seasons was with Mariota and Blaine Gabbert at QB and he had 12 TDs on 230 touches.

Last season with Mariota and then Tannehill he scored 18 TDs on 321 touches. As @Impreza178 so astutely pointed out the insertion of Tannehill into the offense boosted the efficiency of Henry and the passing game. There is no reason given why Henry will not easily pass 12 TDs and is more likely to have between 15-20. 

 

CMC I'd take before Henry after that it gets murky. Henry is a good bet for 1,600 rushing yards or more and 15-20 total TDs, he will have 200 or more receiving yards. That's close to 2,000 all purpose yards and 15-20 TDs. 

 

Barkley misses 4 times as many games last season than Henry has missed in his career. If Barkley is healthy and their OLine and QB play takes a big jump under Jason Garrett's tutelage then Barkley could jump back in the top 3. Zeke is very capable and could be in the top 3 but Henry is right there with that group with Chubb as well, also believe Aaron Jones is this high on the list.

 

Kamara splits time with Murray, rightfully so cause Kamara gets hurt carrying a heavy load, is rather have Henry who will have well over 300 touches 

 

Cook will split time with Mattison to keep Cook healthy, just last season cook misses as many games as Henry has missed in his career.

 

Fournette has a TD rate similar to that of Henry? Fournette has 19 CAREER TDs. Henry had 18 last season. I guess that is one of those weird stats that my little brain can not comprehend. Fournette either through suspension or injury has missed 8 times as many games as Henry has.

 

Chris Carson has never had a double digits TD season. Henry is 2 for his last 2, as I mentioned before. Carson still has Rashaad Penny in Seattle. Carson had the same number of games played as Henry last year and only have 64 more receiving yards and only 19 more receptions. That's what? 25.4 fantasy points. Henry had twice as many TDs as Carson, so that's what? 54 fantasy points? Take 4 TDs away from Henry, that's still 30 fantasy points, more than the difference Carson had in receptions and yards 

 

The Mighty Joe Mixon had 74 more receiving yards than Derrick Henry in 2019. Mixon has never had a season in the NFL with more than 300 receiving yards. He only had 17 more catches than Henry, so that got him 24.8 more fantasy points than Henry. Henry on TDs alone had 60 more fantasy points than Mixon not to mention the extra 400 some odd rushing yards. That's like 100 fantasy points better than Mixon in PPR and they started the same amount of games. Has Mixons OLine gotten better? Will Joe Burrow Boost Mixons numbers so much in the passing game that it will mitigate the substantial scoring differential between Henry and Mixon.

 

As stated before Henry will be a top 6 RB, up there with CMC, Barkley,Zeke, Chubb, and Aaron Jones. How you want to draft any of those 4 after CMC is your preference.

 

Saying that you wouldn't even draft Henry in the 2nd round is laughable and I request to fill the next open slot when 1 opens up in your league.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Henry is gonna have another 300+ season and will be the goalie back. Even if his TDs have to make up for a lack of a few receptions he is gonna have those opportunities to post double digits TD numbers.

 

What will have changed from a football perspective from last year to this year that will make Henry less effective?

 

Doesn't every RB take a hit if you take his TDs away? I mean Henry posts those TDs cause he is an elite RB, it's unfair to try and subtract Henrys TDs and say they are hard to predict. Well what if you took away fournettes catches? He would have had a bottom of the barrel season. If you are predicting Fournette to have similar catches to last season then it seems reasonable to assume Henry will maintain his explosive TD making ability.


I agree with you he will still be viable as long as he is healthy cuss he will be fed. But let’s just say he has 9 or 10 TDs instead of 15 or 18tds. That’s a big sway and a very very realistic outcome on both sides. 30 to 50 points is a pretty big jump. Even while leading the league in rushing if he only has 10 TDs last season he falls from RB6 to RB10 in half ppr. But fournette had 3 TDs and was RB9. Henry doesn’t have outcome if he scores low TDs and doesn’t lead the league in rushing. 
 

yes everyone gets hurt when you take their TDs away but some backs can still supply RB1 value without having a huge amount. CMC saquon. Fournette. Cook. Henry can not. It doesn’t scare me away from him at all but it is a fact that he needs big TD numbers to be a big time fantasy RB.

I still believe Henry is a monster and will be a stud and has just as good a chance at being a 2000 yard rusher and 20 TD guy as he does being a let down But I want to let ppl out there know that there is a world where henry lets us down and not because he is hurt or something beyond his power. sometimes it’s just a year where he gets tackled at the 1 yard line too many times and a qb sneaks it in.

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36 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

12 TDs isnt hard to do considering how the Titans offense likes to play..... 

 

Henry has done it in back to back seasons. He had 12 rushing TDs on 215 rushes in 2018.

 

In 2019 Henry had 16 rushing TDs on 303 rushes and 2 TDs on 18 receptions with a 75% catch rate. 18 total TDs on 321 total TDs

 

Somehow, with a new contract, Tannehill at QB, top 5 OLine and his first time having the same OC for 2 seasons he is going to struggle to reach 12 TDs? 

 

12 TDs is his floor

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4 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


I agree with you he will still be viable as long as he is healthy cuss he will be fed. But let’s just say he has 9 or 10 TDs instead of 15 or 18tds. That’s a big sway and a very very realistic outcome on both sides. 30 to 50 points is a pretty big jump. Even while leading the league in rushing if he only has 10 TDs last season he falls from RB6 to RB10 in half ppr. But fournette had 3 TDs and was RB9. Henry doesn’t have outcome if he scores low TDs and doesn’t lead the league in rushing. 
 

yes everyone gets hurt when you take their TDs away but some backs can still supply RB1 value without having a huge amount. CMC saquon. Fournette. Cook. Henry can not. It doesn’t scare me away from him at all but it is a fact that he needs big TD numbers to be a big time fantasy RB.

I still believe Henry is a monster and will be a stud and has just as good a chance at being a 2000 yard rusher and 20 TD guy as he does being a let down But I want to let ppl out there know that there is a world where henry lets us down and not because he is hurt or something beyond his power. sometimes it’s just a year where he gets tackled at the 1 yard line too many times and a qb sneaks it in.

 

Henry regressing to 10 TDs this season would be something that he hasn't done since Demarco Murray was still in the NFL.

Henry could get tackled at the 1, I guess Tannehill will rush for 8 TDs? Henry will still be the goalie back so he will just punch it in. I think it's just as likely that Fournette or Cook get injured/suspended, drop more passes than usual, or share more withbRyquell Armstead/Alexander Mattison than it is for Henry to regress by 8 TDs or more when his situation has gotten even better than how he started last season.

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10 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

12 TDs isnt hard to do considering how the Titans offense likes to play..... 

I’d be VERY surprised if Henry doesn’t score at least 10.  He’s a great pick in the first and a STEAL in the second 

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Henry regressing to 10 TDs this season would be something that he hasn't done since Demarco Murray was still in the NFL.


Well he’s only done it for 2 seasons it’s not like he has 5 straight years of getting 12 TDs a season. Emmitt smith went 7 years of double digit TDs before he had a bum season so it can happen.

4 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Henry could get tackled at the 1, I guess Tannehill will rush for 8 TDs? Henry will still be the goalie back so he will just punch it in. I think it's just as likely that Fournette or Cook get injured/suspended, drop more passes than usual, or share more withbRyquell Armstead/Alexander Mattison than it is for Henry to regress by 8 TDs or more when his situation has gotten even better than how he started last season.


yanno I agree with this almost 100%. So we accept the fact there is the possibility Henry could score less TDs same as how cook could get in aTime share or fournette could get suspended. That’s the floors we must look at when drafting not 12 TDs and 1500 yards 

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31 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Henry has done it in back to back seasons. He had 12 rushing TDs on 215 rushes in 2018.

 

In 2019 Henry had 16 rushing TDs on 303 rushes and 2 TDs on 18 receptions with a 75% catch rate. 18 total TDs on 321 total TDs

 

Somehow, with a new contract, Tannehill at QB, top 5 OLine and his first time having the same OC for 2 seasons he is going to struggle to reach 12 TDs? 

 

12 TDs is his floor

12 tds as his floor?

Fantasy Football is all about playing the probabilities. 

Fact: In 4 nfl seasons Henry has never had over 20 catches. 

Fact: Only 2 players in the last 7 years have finished in the top 12 in full ppr scoring while catching less then 20 passes and one of them played on an top 5 offense (Blount), Henry does not and will not.

Fact: The average league leader in rushing tds was 14.8-      16+17+13+18+11+13+12+15+17, saying 12 tds is his floor which would be bold since its only 2 off the league leader average

Fact: For Henry to have a big year he needs to have 12 tds or more. If you look above the leaders in each year played on top offenses (Gurely-17/13) Blount (18), McCoy Eagles (17). Or they have historically good defenses like lynch. Henry's team will be middle of the road and how often will they be getting near the goaline. 

Fact: Hate doing this, but henry had 4 of his tds in one game in 2018, which makes your 2 year in the row argument misleading. 

Fact: 2019 stats don't carry over to 2020 and being a fan of someone doesn't erase the fact that he is a near 0 in the passing department and banking on 2,000 all purpose yards and 12 plus tds, from someone who doesn't catch on a mediocre offense, with a mediocre qb is not playing the numbers right. 

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1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

12 tds as his floor?

Fantasy Football is all about playing the probabilities. 

Fact: In 4 nfl seasons Henry has never had over 20 catches. 

Fact: Only 2 players in the last 7 years have finished in the top 12 in full ppr scoring while catching less then 20 passes and one of them played on an top 5 offense (Blount), Henry does not and will not.

Fact: The average league leader in rushing tds was 14.8-      16+17+13+18+11+13+12+15+17, saying 12 tds is his floor which would be bold since its only 2 off the league leader average

Fact: For Henry to have a big year he needs to have 12 tds or more. If you look above the leaders in each year played on top offenses (Gurely-17/13) Blount (18), McCoy Eagles (17). Or they have historically good defenses like lynch. Henry's team will be middle of the road and how often will they be getting near the goaline. 

Fact: Hate doing this, but henry had 4 of his tds in one game in 2018, which makes your 2 year in the row argument misleading. 

Fact: 2019 stats don't carry over to 2020 and being a fan of someone doesn't erase the fact that he is a near 0 in the passing department and banking on 2,000 all purpose yards and 12 plus tds, from someone who doesn't catch on a mediocre offense, with a mediocre qb is not playing the numbers right. 

 

What makes the 2 year in a row argument misleading? Did those 4 TDs not count? He got those TDs cause he is an elite RB, your bias causes you to view it negatively. Should we subtract a game where a RB has 10 receptions for 100 yards? That's ridiculous.

 

In the 2 seasons Henry has been a starter he has scored at least 12 TDs. That is his floor seeing as how he scored 18 with 321 touches.

 

You say the Titans will be a middle of the road team? A team that just went to the AFC championship game? Lol.

 

Uhm, a near zero in the passing game? Henry had 60 fantasy points in the receiving game last season. What constitutes a near zero? Is it 60 fantasy points or less?

Banking on a 2,000 all purpose yards from a guy on a mediocre offense with a mediocre QB? Lol, that's one opinion I suppose. That mediocre offense, QB, and RB, beat the Chiefs in the regular season, the Patriots and Ravens in the playoffs and you have then as a middle of the road team going into next season, that is not playing the numbers right. 

 

Claiming Tennessee will not have enough goaline opportunities for Henry to score TDs is obtuse at best. Tannehill moved the offense with great efficiency and provided ample red zone opportunities for Henry. Even still, Henry is capable of scoring multiple TDs from 60 yards out or more in the rushing and receiving games so he isn't limited to only goaline opportunities. 

 

2020 will be better for Henry than 2019 was. Being a detractor of Henry and making excuses why he has scored back to back 12 TD or more seasons to try and discredit him does not make it true. Like having a 4 TD game, you say it skews the stats but you won't take away the PPR backs best receiving games when making the same comparison. You claim that Henry is a net zero in the passing game when he provided 60 fantasy points in the receiving game. That is completely misleading and irresponsible.

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1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

12 tds as his floor?

Fantasy Football is all about playing the probabilities. 

Fact: In 4 nfl seasons Henry has never had over 20 catches. 

Fact: Only 2 players in the last 7 years have finished in the top 12 in full ppr scoring while catching less then 20 passes and one of them played on an top 5 offense (Blount), Henry does not and will not.

Fact: The average league leader in rushing tds was 14.8-      16+17+13+18+11+13+12+15+17, saying 12 tds is his floor which would be bold since its only 2 off the league leader average

Fact: For Henry to have a big year he needs to have 12 tds or more. If you look above the leaders in each year played on top offenses (Gurely-17/13) Blount (18), McCoy Eagles (17). Or they have historically good defenses like lynch. Henry's team will be middle of the road and how often will they be getting near the goaline. 

Fact: Hate doing this, but henry had 4 of his tds in one game in 2018, which makes your 2 year in the row argument misleading. 

Fact: 2019 stats don't carry over to 2020 and being a fan of someone doesn't erase the fact that he is a near 0 in the passing department and banking on 2,000 all purpose yards and 12 plus tds, from someone who doesn't catch on a mediocre offense, with a mediocre qb is not playing the numbers right. 

 

Surely you realize by now that FACTS to support both sides of a player evaluation are as common as cactus in the desert 🌵

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1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

12 tds as his floor?

Fantasy Football is all about playing the probabilities. 

Fact: In 4 nfl seasons Henry has never had over 20 catches. 

Fact: Only 2 players in the last 7 years have finished in the top 12 in full ppr scoring while catching less then 20 passes and one of them played on an top 5 offense (Blount), Henry does not and will not.

Fact: The average league leader in rushing tds was 14.8-      16+17+13+18+11+13+12+15+17, saying 12 tds is his floor which would be bold since its only 2 off the league leader average

Fact: For Henry to have a big year he needs to have 12 tds or more. If you look above the leaders in each year played on top offenses (Gurely-17/13) Blount (18), McCoy Eagles (17). Or they have historically good defenses like lynch. Henry's team will be middle of the road and how often will they be getting near the goaline. 

Fact: Hate doing this, but henry had 4 of his tds in one game in 2018, which makes your 2 year in the row argument misleading. 

Fact: 2019 stats don't carry over to 2020 and being a fan of someone doesn't erase the fact that he is a near 0 in the passing department and banking on 2,000 all purpose yards and 12 plus tds, from someone who doesn't catch on a mediocre offense, with a mediocre qb is not playing the numbers right. 


Middle of the road team , hard time getting to the goal line .. Your kidding right ? They had one of the hottest offenses this past season & went deep into the playoffs. I definitely see some regression coming this year, whether it’s yards or TD’s , but nothing crazy.  Theres only 3 backs I would absolutely take over him thats Saquan, Cook, & CMC . Kamara / Zeke  low-key scare me this year , but they’re right in that tier with Henry. 

 

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4 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

What makes the 2 year in a row argument misleading? Did those 4 TDs not count? He got those TDs cause he is an elite RB, your bias causes you to view it negatively. Should we subtract a game where a RB has 10 receptions for 100 yards? That's ridiculous.

 

In the 2 seasons Henry has been a starter he has scored at least 12 TDs. That is his floor seeing as how he scored 18 with 321 touches.

 

You say the Titans will be a middle of the road team? A team that just went to the AFC championship game? Lol.

 

Uhm, a near zero in the passing game? Henry had 60 fantasy points in the receiving game last season. What constitutes a near zero? Is it 60 fantasy points or less?

Banking on a 2,000 all purpose yards from a guy on a mediocre offense with a mediocre QB? Lol, that's one opinion I suppose. That mediocre offense, QB, and RB, beat the Chiefs in the regular season, the Patriots and Ravens in the playoffs and you have then as a middle of the road team going into next season, that is not playing the numbers right. 

 

Claiming Tennessee will not have enough goaline opportunities for Henry to score TDs is obtuse at best. Tannehill moved the offense with great efficiency and provided ample red zone opportunities for Henry. Even still, Henry is capable of scoring multiple TDs from 60 yards out or more in the rushing and receiving games so he isn't limited to only goaline opportunities. 

 

2020 will be better for Henry than 2019 was. Being a detractor of Henry and making excuses why he has scored back to back 12 TD or more seasons to try and discredit him does not make it true. Like having a 4 TD game, you say it skews the stats but you won't take away the PPR backs best receiving games when making the same comparison. You claim that Henry is a net zero in the passing game when he provided 60 fantasy points in the receiving game. That is completely misleading and irresponsible.

I said they would be a mediocre offense, not a mediocre team, two very different things. However, they are a mediocre team. They were 9-7 in the worst division in football by far (mediocre) and yes got hot and did well at the end by beating the patriots who have no offense and the Baltimore win was impressive.

Tannehill is a mediocre qb as in middle of the pack. 32 nfl teams: Qbs that are better mahomes, rodgers, brady, wilson, watson, jackson stafford, brees, ryan, rivers, big ben, wentz, Dak, kyler murrary. On a pure talent standpoint: I would take a healthy cam newton and probably winston as well. 

Most of the time as in like 90% of the time, I can check the stats more people putting up HUGE td rushing totals or totals in general come from top 10 offenses, who move the ball into the redzone or all time defenses causing turn overs. Titans will be neither, defense should be good though. 

TD's are VERY HARD TO PREDICT compared to catches, so yeah go ahead and take out a 8-10 catch game, because that is way more likely that a multi (4) td game, which is one off the all time record of 5. Yeah pretty unlikely. 

Thing is you are throwing out huge numbers 2,000 yards 15-20 tds that is statistically not likely and fantasy is all about playing the probabilities mixed with luck. Closer to the season I would be willing to put my money where my mouth is. 

 

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2 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I said they would be a mediocre offense, not a mediocre team, two very different things. However, they are a mediocre team. They were 9-7 in the worst division in football by far (mediocre) and yes got hot and did well at the end by beating the patriots who have no offense and the Baltimore win was impressive.

 


They were the most efficient team in the league last year when Tannehill was starting. Even more efficient than the ravens. That has to come down to earth some. I tend to think they will be a mediocre offense as well but absolutely not a bad offense. This happens every season some team ends the year hot and we think it will just carry over into next season but it just doesn’t work like that. When the eagles won a Super Bowl they had a great offense and it’s been average at best since. When cam newton won MVP the panthers had a great offense and it’s been average at best since. Since the falcons lost the Super Bowl they haven’t been the same. Bears offense took a step back this year so did the browns and they both looked like they were ready to be contenders. Countless of recent examples can be made. I don’t know if this will be true for the titans but surely the offense regresses some. It can’t be that efficient on a regular basis it would be the most efficient of all time by leaps and bounds.

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17 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


They were the most efficient team in the league last year when Tannehill was starting. Even more efficient than the ravens. That has to come down to earth some. I tend to think they will be a mediocre offense as well but absolutely not a bad offense. This happens every season some team ends the year hot and we think it will just carry over into next season but it just doesn’t work like that. When the eagles won a Super Bowl they had a great offense and it’s been average at best since. When cam newton won MVP the panthers had a great offense and it’s been average at best since. Since the falcons lost the Super Bowl they haven’t been the same. Bears offense took a step back this year so did the browns and they both looked like they were ready to be contenders. Countless of recent examples can be made. I don’t know if this will be true for the titans but surely the offense regresses some. It can’t be that efficient on a regular basis it would be the most efficient of all time by leaps and bounds.


great point.   Tape gets around, so you only get out of the blue Tannehill for one season lol.   
 

A lot of proving to do in Tenn.    

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:


great point.   Tape gets around, so you only get out of the blue Tannehill for one season lol.   
 

A lot of proving to do in Tenn.    

 

Good thing Henry will take care of the heavy lifting.

 

9 men in the box? King Hendry says to bring it on.

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I think whether they retain Conklin remains the primary factor for whether Henry should be expected to repeat - if they pair Davis with a rook on the right side, it would likely make for tougher sledding.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

I think whether they retain Conklin remains the primary factor for whether Henry should be expected to repeat - if they pair Davis with a rook on the right side, it would likely make for tougher sledding.

Conklin is overrated. Dennis kelly is not a downgrade if he was to start in his position.

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38 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

Conklin is overrated. Dennis kelly is not a downgrade if he was to start in his position.

I realize you’re a fan of the team - but arguing that Dennis. Kelly. Is not a downgrade at RT is utterly absurd.

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