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Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook


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17 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

Just awesome with another beastly walk-off OT performance.

 

But, seriously, WTF ARE THE TITANS DOING AT THE GOALINE?!?!  The last couple weeks they’ve tried to get cute over and over again. I understand the occasional PA pass to the TE, but shotgun spread formation, stupid play calling instead of just pounding Henry at least once. I’m pretty sure he hasn’t had a carry inside the 5-yd line the last 2 weeks. I was losing my mind. AJ Brown bailed them out with that insane play.

 

Yeah, aggravating. Talk about overthinking it on offense.

My hope is that come the sweet playoff matchups in weeks 14-16 there is some serious positive regression.

Get the BS play calling out of the way now.

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On 11/23/2020 at 8:39 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yeah, Ballage had 7 receptions yesterday. Take away Henrys game winning TD and Ballage was better.

Haven’t been in this thread as of late. Does DHC hate Henry now?! What has the world come to?

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1 hour ago, nb009 said:

Haven’t been in this thread as of late. Does DHC hate Henry now?! What has the world come to?

 

He's mocking the "BuT hEnRy GeTs No ReCePtIoNs" crowd.  "Take away Henry's game winning TD" is the big giveaway you're dealing with sarcasm ^^ 

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2 hours ago, Rainyy said:

He's mocking the "BuT hEnRy GeTs No ReCePtIoNs" crowd.

 

But... he doesn't get receptions.  This is why the (those of us who are reasonable) mentioned that Henry doesn't have #1 RB upside in PPR.  I'm not kidding when I say, that if Alvin Kamara takes the rest of the season off, Henry might not catch him (or Cook) before Week 16.  He's not even in the discussion or tier of true PPR elite backs.  Marshawn Lynch is the best 'fantasy' comparable to him.  Lynch was a stud, perennial top 10 RB, beast of a 'real' NFL player, and absolute joy to watch play... but he was NEVER in the discussion for #1 RB overall.  Henry shares all of those same traits.  Most NFL players are freaks... Henry was already a freak 'for his position', and a double freak because of his body type, playing that position.

Having said that, I think there are a lot of rose colored glasses around here.  I understand that trolling breeds trolling, which is why DHC gets so many visitors here, because he's been a troll for years, and so when Henry struggles, they all come to repay the debt.  But there are legitimate concerns with Henry from a 'big picture' fantasy perspective if you're being honest with yourselves.  Everyone here knows I'm all about data and statistic driven analysis.

Henry ranks 18th among RBs in points per game over the last 5 weeks.
Drafted right next to each other, Dalvin Cook, in 1 less game, has out produced Henry by 33% through 10 weeks.
Derrick Henry, despite costing 300% more in 2020 than he did in 2019, is producing 10% less than he did last year. (TD regression was to be expected and normal)

James Robinson and Derrick Henry are separated by 8 points, but drafted 15 rounds apart.  Now, JRob being good, doesn't negate Henry being good.  My point is that, perspective matters.  Imagine if player threads were labelled by the points they've scored so far... Now consider that J.Rob and Henry are only 8 points apart, go read his thread and compare it to this one, and logically try to explain why they seem to be so drastically different.  It's a good exercise on valuing points rather than names or draft capital.  This thread is convinced Henry can do no wrong, that thread is saying they're happy to have a solid RB2 who's going to end up as an RB1 due to league circumstances.
 

I believe owners are... in a relationship.  You can't see it while you're in the moment, but once the season is over, you'll look back and be like... yeah that wasn't great.
Derrick is salvaging his entire season, by attrition.  He'll be regarded as a good pick, because 'well at least it wasn't a complete bust like <name 99% of other 1st/2nd rounders who are dead and gone>.  In that regard, I completely agree.  If I can come out of the first 2 rounds without hitting any landmines, I'm feeling pretty confident any given season.  In that regard, Henry is a fine pick.  Next year though, when more people start analyzing 2020 and their data include 3-5 years of stats rather than 3-5 weeks of points and emotion... they're going to realize that Henry's season has been meh.  It's been slightly inflated by 2 big weeks.  I'm NOT saying those weeks don't count and I'm not saying take them away.  What I'm saying is that, when and how you score points matters.  We're 10 weeks into the season and 37% of Henry's current points, came in 2 weeks.  He's averaged 14 ppg over the other 8 weeks you've owned him.  The truth is he's being buoyed by the absolute ****show of 2020 in which nearly every one else absolutely destroyed seasons, whereas Henry was boring, but reliable, and played every week.

Let me be clear, this isn't anything against Henry, as it applies to all RBs after him in total points right now too.  It's not the first time I've had this discussion on this forum either.  2015 the same thing happened, I believe it was THE worst RB season of this era, and I stressed that when evaluating the big picture, you have to take that into consideration  Do not be fooled by a top 5 RB season in 2015, because in any normal year, they wouldn't have even been an RB1.

Big picture, even though Henry is currently RB3... no one is drafting him top 3 next year.  That's because no one truly values him that way.  He's a mid to low range RB1, who will finish as either a high or low RB1 based on the landscape around him, not because of what he personally does.  His value comes in workload, goal line work, and being a tank who doesn't miss games, because in fantasy, sometimes the best ability, is avail-ability.  Other backs will come and go based on stars aligning in the reception and TD categories, but Henry does what he does, incredibly well.  Yards, yards, and more yards, with a healthy amount of TDs to pair with them.

Now... It's about that time of year when Henry will go on a massive run and carry people to the playoffs.  Hopefully he doesn't dump them at the doorstep and abandon you this time.

Good luck to you all.  I only did 3 leagues this year, while it's still too early to call, I don't believe the Henry owner will make the playoffs in a single one.

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

 

But... he doesn't get receptions.  This is why the (those of us who are reasonable) mentioned that Henry doesn't have #1 RB upside in PPR.  I'm not kidding when I say, that if Alvin Kamara takes the rest of the season off, Henry might not catch him (or Cook) before Week 16.  He's not even in the discussion or tier of true PPR elite backs.  Marshawn Lynch is the best 'fantasy' comparable to him.  Lynch was a stud, perennial top 10 RB, beast of a 'real' NFL player, and absolute joy to watch play... but he was NEVER in the discussion for #1 RB overall.  Henry shares all of those same traits.  Most NFL players are freaks... Henry was already a freak 'for his position', and a double freak because of his body type, playing that position.

Having said that, I think there are a lot of rose colored glasses around here.  I understand that trolling breeds trolling, which is why DHC gets so many visitors here, because he's been a troll for years, and so when Henry struggles, they all come to repay the debt.  But there are legitimate concerns with Henry from a 'big picture' fantasy perspective if you're being honest with yourselves.  Everyone here knows I'm all about data and statistic driven analysis.

Henry ranks 18th among RBs in points per game over the last 5 weeks.
Drafted right next to each other, Dalvin Cook, in 1 less game, has out produced Henry by 33% through 10 weeks.
Derrick Henry, despite costing 300% more in 2020 than he did in 2019, is producing 10% less than he did last year. (TD regression was to be expected and normal)

James Robinson and Derrick Henry are separated by 8 points, but drafted 15 rounds apart.  Now, JRob being good, doesn't negate Henry being good.  My point is that, perspective matters.  Imagine if player threads were labelled by the points they've scored so far... Now consider that J.Rob and Henry are only 8 points apart, go read his thread and compare it to this one, and logically try to explain why they seem to be so drastically different.  It's a good exercise on valuing points rather than names or draft capital.  This thread is convinced Henry can do no wrong, that thread is saying they're happy to have a solid RB2 who's going to end up as an RB1 due to league circumstances.
 

I believe owners are... in a relationship.  You can't see it while you're in the moment, but once the season is over, you'll look back and be like... yeah that wasn't great.
Derrick is salvaging his entire season, by attrition.  He'll be regarded as a good pick, because 'well at least it wasn't a complete bust like <name 99% of other 1st/2nd rounders who are dead and gone>.  In that regard, I completely agree.  If I can come out of the first 2 rounds without hitting any landmines, I'm feeling pretty confident any given season.  In that regard, Henry is a fine pick.  Next year though, when more people start analyzing 2020 and their data include 3-5 years of stats rather than 3-5 weeks of points and emotion... they're going to realize that Henry's season has been meh.  It's been slightly inflated by 2 big weeks.  I'm NOT saying those weeks don't count and I'm not saying take them away.  What I'm saying is that, when and how you score points matters.  We're 10 weeks into the season and 37% of Henry's current points, came in 2 weeks.  He's averaged 14 ppg over the other 8 weeks you've owned him.  The truth is he's being buoyed by the absolute ****show of 2020 in which nearly every one else absolutely destroyed seasons, whereas Henry was boring, but reliable, and played every week.

Let me be clear, this isn't anything against Henry, as it applies to all RBs after him in total points right now too.  It's not the first time I've had this discussion on this forum either.  2015 the same thing happened, I believe it was THE worst RB season of this era, and I stressed that when evaluating the big picture, you have to take that into consideration  Do not be fooled by a top 5 RB season in 2015, because in any normal year, they wouldn't have even been an RB1.

Big picture, even though Henry is currently RB3... no one is drafting him top 3 next year.  That's because no one truly values him that way.  He's a mid to low range RB1, who will finish as either a high or low RB1 based on the landscape around him, not because of what he personally does.  His value comes in workload, goal line work, and being a tank who doesn't miss games, because in fantasy, sometimes the best ability, is avail-ability.  Other backs will come and go based on stars aligning in the reception and TD categories, but Henry does what he does, incredibly well.  Yards, yards, and more yards, with a healthy amount of TDs to pair with them.

Now... It's about that time of year when Henry will go on a massive run and carry people to the playoffs.  Hopefully he doesn't dump them at the doorstep and abandon you this time.

Good luck to you all.  I only did 3 leagues this year, while it's still too early to call, I don't believe the Henry owner will make the playoffs in a single one.

 

This is why the pass catchers go before him in PPR. How many RBs drafted after Henry have #RB1 upside?

How many of them have even Henry's upside?

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

 

But... he doesn't get receptions.  This is why the (those of us who are reasonable) mentioned that Henry doesn't have #1 RB upside in PPR.  I'm not kidding when I say, that if Alvin Kamara takes the rest of the season off, Henry might not catch him (or Cook) before Week 16.  He's not even in the discussion or tier of true PPR elite backs.  Marshawn Lynch is the best 'fantasy' comparable to him.  Lynch was a stud, perennial top 10 RB, beast of a 'real' NFL player, and absolute joy to watch play... but he was NEVER in the discussion for #1 RB overall.  Henry shares all of those same traits.  Most NFL players are freaks... Henry was already a freak 'for his position', and a double freak because of his body type, playing that position.

Having said that, I think there are a lot of rose colored glasses around here.  I understand that trolling breeds trolling, which is why DHC gets so many visitors here, because he's been a troll for years, and so when Henry struggles, they all come to repay the debt.  But there are legitimate concerns with Henry from a 'big picture' fantasy perspective if you're being honest with yourselves.  Everyone here knows I'm all about data and statistic driven analysis.

Henry ranks 18th among RBs in points per game over the last 5 weeks.
Drafted right next to each other, Dalvin Cook, in 1 less game, has out produced Henry by 33% through 10 weeks.
Derrick Henry, despite costing 300% more in 2020 than he did in 2019, is producing 10% less than he did last year. (TD regression was to be expected and normal)

James Robinson and Derrick Henry are separated by 8 points, but drafted 15 rounds apart.  Now, JRob being good, doesn't negate Henry being good.  My point is that, perspective matters.  Imagine if player threads were labelled by the points they've scored so far... Now consider that J.Rob and Henry are only 8 points apart, go read his thread and compare it to this one, and logically try to explain why they seem to be so drastically different.  It's a good exercise on valuing points rather than names or draft capital.  This thread is convinced Henry can do no wrong, that thread is saying they're happy to have a solid RB2 who's going to end up as an RB1 due to league circumstances.
 

I believe owners are... in a relationship.  You can't see it while you're in the moment, but once the season is over, you'll look back and be like... yeah that wasn't great.
Derrick is salvaging his entire season, by attrition.  He'll be regarded as a good pick, because 'well at least it wasn't a complete bust like <name 99% of other 1st/2nd rounders who are dead and gone>.  In that regard, I completely agree.  If I can come out of the first 2 rounds without hitting any landmines, I'm feeling pretty confident any given season.  In that regard, Henry is a fine pick.  Next year though, when more people start analyzing 2020 and their data include 3-5 years of stats rather than 3-5 weeks of points and emotion... they're going to realize that Henry's season has been meh.  It's been slightly inflated by 2 big weeks.  I'm NOT saying those weeks don't count and I'm not saying take them away.  What I'm saying is that, when and how you score points matters.  We're 10 weeks into the season and 37% of Henry's current points, came in 2 weeks.  He's averaged 14 ppg over the other 8 weeks you've owned him.  The truth is he's being buoyed by the absolute ****show of 2020 in which nearly every one else absolutely destroyed seasons, whereas Henry was boring, but reliable, and played every week.

Let me be clear, this isn't anything against Henry, as it applies to all RBs after him in total points right now too.  It's not the first time I've had this discussion on this forum either.  2015 the same thing happened, I believe it was THE worst RB season of this era, and I stressed that when evaluating the big picture, you have to take that into consideration  Do not be fooled by a top 5 RB season in 2015, because in any normal year, they wouldn't have even been an RB1.

Big picture, even though Henry is currently RB3... no one is drafting him top 3 next year.  That's because no one truly values him that way.  He's a mid to low range RB1, who will finish as either a high or low RB1 based on the landscape around him, not because of what he personally does.  His value comes in workload, goal line work, and being a tank who doesn't miss games, because in fantasy, sometimes the best ability, is avail-ability.  Other backs will come and go based on stars aligning in the reception and TD categories, but Henry does what he does, incredibly well.  Yards, yards, and more yards, with a healthy amount of TDs to pair with them.

Now... It's about that time of year when Henry will go on a massive run and carry people to the playoffs.  Hopefully he doesn't dump them at the doorstep and abandon you this time.

Good luck to you all.  I only did 3 leagues this year, while it's still too early to call, I don't believe the Henry owner will make the playoffs in a single one.

 

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@FFCollusion (not gonna quote your long post, but it’s in response)

 

Your posts are always well thought-out & supported, but I think you’re missing the mark here a bit.

 

*Aside from the fact that not all of us play in Full-PPR (I do exclusively Half-PPR, which negates the pass-catching downside a bit), we’ll address it as if we’re speaking Full-PPR.

 

1) You say he doesn’t have #1 Overall upside.  Well, what RB outside CMC, Kamara, Saquon & Cook did coming into the season? All 4 of those guys were drafted ahead of Henry in PPR.  Some argued CEH had that type of upside... we’ve seen how that worked out.  Michael Thomas? Well...
 

2) Henry’s relative durability and availability are part of why his value is high.  You can’t discount that.  Yes, perhaps if EVERY RB stayed healthy the entire season, he wouldn’t be top 3, but they don’t.  His level of risk is lower than almost anyone else.

 

3) He has had TD regression this season (especially the last few weeks) due to the Titans “cute” play-calling at the goalline.  He has still given everyone that yardage floor.  People who claim he is TD-dependent are wrong.


4) No one says he can do no wrong. But the amount of hate he gets in this thread for not being “exciting” or “dynamic” is ridiculous, which I think leads to increased gloating when he performs well.  Plus, he’s just a fun guy to root for with his physical running style, stiff-arms, and workmanlike attitude.


Bottom line: He IS Top 3 in PPR. He has outperformed his ADP.

 

...And his schedule is about to open up down the stretch. 💣 

 

*I also own James Robinson, and he’s been awesome.  I view their floors similarly, but Henry has a much higher ceiling.  if you’ve been in that thread, you would have seen people defending him stoutly as well when anyone (one person in particular) came in saying to sell high because he was not a proper RB1.

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Henry was ranked by fantasy pros as the RB#6 in full PPR before the season

 

He is currently RB #3 in full PPR

 

The argument now is why he won't ever be the #1 RB in PPR?

 

We have come a long way.

 

🤣

 

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/ppr-overall.php

 

It's interesting that I started the threads for the #3 and #4 ppr RBs so far this season in King Hendry and JRob.

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5 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

@FFCollusion (not gonna quote your long post, but it’s in response)

 

Your posts are always well thought-out & supported, but I think you’re missing the mark here a bit.

 

*Aside from the fact that not all of us play in Full-PPR (I do exclusively Half-PPR, which negates the pass-catching downside a bit), we’ll address it as if we’re speaking Full-PPR.

 

1) You say he doesn’t have #1 Overall upside.  Well, what RB outside CMC, Kamara, Saquon & Cook did coming into the season? All 4 of those guys were drafted ahead of Henry in PPR.  Some argued CEH had that type of upside... we’ve seen how that worked out.  Michael Thomas? Well...
 

2) Henry’s relative durability and availability are part of why his value is high.  You can’t discount that.  Yes, perhaps if EVERY RB stayed healthy the entire season, he wouldn’t be top 3, but they don’t.  His level of risk is lower than almost anyone else.

 

3) He has had TD regression this season (especially the last few weeks) due to the Titans “cute” play-calling at the goalline.  He has still given everyone that yardage floor.  People who claim he is TD-dependent are wrong.


4) No one says he can do no wrong. But the amount of hate he gets in this thread for not being “exciting” or “dynamic” is ridiculous, which I think leads to increased gloating when he performs well.  Plus, he’s just a fun guy to root for with his physical running style, stiff-arms, and workmanlike attitude.


Bottom line: He IS Top 3 in PPR. He has outperformed his ADP.

 

...And his schedule is about to open up down the stretch. 💣 

 

*I also own James Robinson, and he’s been awesome.  I view their floors similarly, but Henry has a much higher ceiling.  if you’ve been in that thread, you would have seen people defending him stoutly as well when anyone (one person in particular) came in saying to sell high because he was not a proper RB1.

 

All you did was regurgitate the points I made, but offered them in a fashion that makes it seem like you're disputing my standpoint, when in reality you are supporting everything I said.

1) I say he doesn't have #1 upside, because that is the discussion I had previously in this thread and posters lost their mind.  Cook vs Henry was a very real decision on draft day and if you've followed this thread, it's the conversation we were debating at that time.  Cleats can pretend 'how far we've come' but he's still just trolling.  He knows what was said, he's just pandering to the crowd to avoid the fact that I was right and he was wrong.

2) I didn't discount it, I blatantly stated the reason Henry is RB3 is because of attrition, but availability is the best ability to have in this game.  But every year, I reinforce the fact that we do not play a season long game, we play a weekly game, over the course of a season.  Whether you like to admit it or not, Christian McCaffrey has had a bigger effect on the win column for his owners, than Derrick Henry has, and he's only played 3 games.  Think about that.  Because that's the reality of the 'weekly' game we play.  Piecing together RBs for weeks and then having a stud play part time, will be a better point total than Henry for 16 weeks.
Every year I say it.  Having an RB2 for 16 weeks, will be a season long top 12 RB when the year is over.  You have to ask yourself, did you own an RB1 or an RB2, relative to the game we play?
Another thing I repeat... On draft day RB is the scarcest position in the game, but throughout the season, no position is more readily available than RB.  It might not look pretty, you might not always pick right, you might not always get the player, and the points won't have a year end rank you can easily analyze... but they are there.
I'm not discounting his durability, I'm just trying to tell you, that being durable for 16 weeks will result in a top 10 finish for the season, but doesn't automatically mean you are scoring RB1 numbers for 16 weeks.  I hate the way the general population defines RB1.  It's a terrible terrible measurement.

Think of it this way.  On draft day, we all think we're set at RB.  By week four 25% of all the RBs we drafted are busts.  By week 8, another 25% are injured and out for the season, or circumstances changed.  By week 8, 75% of your fantasy league, will be scrounging for any morsel of RB points they can get, to fill a hole.  I mean it, take a look at the other 11 teams in your league, and truly analyze where their RB talent is at.
Then honestly tell me... What's the difference between starting DeeJay Dallas, Carlos Hyde, Kalen Ballage, Giovani Bernard, Wayne Gallman, Salvon Ahmed, JD McKissick, the list goes on and on and on.  These are just the guys I've played at some point in my lineups this year.  Tell me, when I played any of these stop gap losers, what was the difference between them and Derrick Henry?  Because the truth is that 80% of the time... there was no difference.  The difference is that Henry has upside, and 20% of the time he single handedly wins you the week.  The difference is you paid a 1st round pick and I paid some FAAB.  But when I play the Derrick Henry owner, I know there's an 80% chance, I won't even notice I played against him.  And a 20% chance that he'll crush me and I won't be mad, because that's what 1st rounders are suppose to do.

When I see Derrick Henry, I don't see an RB1.  I see an RB2 with job security and workload guarantees.  The 7 guys I mentioned above, lasted maybe 2-3 weeks, Henry will do what they do for 16, and has significantly more upside.  But upside is only 'potential'.  Potential doesn't mean anything if it doesn't come to fruition.  The 40 points he scored in week 6, don't mean anything for the last 5 weeks we've played anymore.  I'm not taking it away, but the reality is that if TEN game ends in regulation, Henry's week 11 was just another lackluster 14 point game, which drops him from RB4 to RB18 for the week, and outside of the top24 RBs in PPG for the last 5 weeks.  He earned those points, they count, but as a player, when you analyze your assets, you can't be happy that it required overtime to hit your target valuations.  It's like owning a player who scores all their points in garbage time.  They still count, but it doesn't give me confidence for the next week, because I don't want to HAVE to rely on them.

3) TD regression is normal, was predictable, and isn't his fault.  He had an incredibly season last year, it was only reasonable expect a bit of a downfall.  Not Henry's fault.  I'd argue it has more to do with Tannehill year 2 combined with Jonnu's presence in the offense this year, but the injuries kind of derailed that, so it's still to be seen I think.

4) He does get too much hate, but he also gets too much love.  99% of all posts in this thread are too far toward one of those extremes.  I'm trying to be that 1%.

You are right, he IS top 3.  So let me ask you this... do you feel he's top 3 because of anything he's doing well this year?
Or do you feel he's top 3 because of the LACK of things anyone else has done this year?
How will value his 2020 'RB3 finish' when you draft for 2021?
Assuming we're still discussing PPR, are you going to draft Henry ahead of CMC? Barkley? Zeke? Cook? Kamara? Will you let 2020 shy you away from Michael Thomas or Devante Adams next year?
Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Stephon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins... all have more points than Henry does so far in 2020.  Albeit from a different position that we value less.

Are you drafting Henry with a top 3 pick next year?
Top 5 Pick? Top 8?

Because if you can't confidently tell me you would re-draft Henry from the 6-8 spot in 2021, then how am I suppose to believe you when you say he's out performed his ADP in 2020?  It's akin to racing against a clock.  If I draft a 6min mile and get a 7min mile... I'm not happy.  Even if the competition runs an 8-10min mile, I don't feel pleased with my performance because I sucked the least.  That's how I look at Henry.  I'm glad I'm in the lead, but I don't feel very good about the way it came about.

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The Indianapolis Colts have placed star DL DeForest Buckner on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. (Source: Indianapolis Colts on Twitter)

Fantasy Impact: Buckner has been everything the Colts had hoped for when they traded the 13th overall pick in the 2020 draft to the 49ers in exchange for his services. The 2019 second-team All-Pro has racked up 2.5 sacks and 4 tackles for loss this season while being a constant disrupter on one of the league's best defenses. His status for Week 12 is still unknown, but the Colts are going to need him as they take on Derrick Henry and the Titans.

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12 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

All you did was regurgitate the points I made, but offered them in a fashion that makes it seem like you're disputing my standpoint, when in reality you are supporting everything I said.

1) I say he doesn't have #1 upside, because that is the discussion I had previously in this thread and posters lost their mind.  Cook vs Henry was a very real decision on draft day and if you've followed this thread, it's the conversation we were debating at that time.  Cleats can pretend 'how far we've come' but he's still just trolling.  He knows what was said, he's just pandering to the crowd to avoid the fact that I was right and he was wrong.

2) I didn't discount it, I blatantly stated the reason Henry is RB3 is because of attrition, but availability is the best ability to have in this game.  But every year, I reinforce the fact that we do not play a season long game, we play a weekly game, over the course of a season.  Whether you like to admit it or not, Christian McCaffrey has had a bigger effect on the win column for his owners, than Derrick Henry has, and he's only played 3 games.  Think about that.  Because that's the reality of the 'weekly' game we play.  Piecing together RBs for weeks and then having a stud play part time, will be a better point total than Henry for 16 weeks.
Every year I say it.  Having an RB2 for 16 weeks, will be a season long top 12 RB when the year is over.  You have to ask yourself, did you own an RB1 or an RB2, relative to the game we play?
Another thing I repeat... On draft day RB is the scarcest position in the game, but throughout the season, no position is more readily available than RB.  It might not look pretty, you might not always pick right, you might not always get the player, and the points won't have a year end rank you can easily analyze... but they are there.
I'm not discounting his durability, I'm just trying to tell you, that being durable for 16 weeks will result in a top 10 finish for the season, but doesn't automatically mean you are scoring RB1 numbers for 16 weeks.  I hate the way the general population defines RB1.  It's a terrible terrible measurement.

Think of it this way.  On draft day, we all think we're set at RB.  By week four 25% of all the RBs we drafted are busts.  By week 8, another 25% are injured and out for the season, or circumstances changed.  By week 8, 75% of your fantasy league, will be scrounging for any morsel of RB points they can get, to fill a hole.  I mean it, take a look at the other 11 teams in your league, and truly analyze where their RB talent is at.
Then honestly tell me... What's the difference between starting DeeJay Dallas, Carlos Hyde, Kalen Ballage, Giovani Bernard, Wayne Gallman, Salvon Ahmed, JD McKissick, the list goes on and on and on.  These are just the guys I've played at some point in my lineups this year.  Tell me, when I played any of these stop gap losers, what was the difference between them and Derrick Henry?  Because the truth is that 80% of the time... there was no difference.  The difference is that Henry has upside, and 20% of the time he single handedly wins you the week.  The difference is you paid a 1st round pick and I paid some FAAB.  But when I play the Derrick Henry owner, I know there's an 80% chance, I won't even notice I played against him.  And a 20% chance that he'll crush me and I won't be mad, because that's what 1st rounders are suppose to do.

When I see Derrick Henry, I don't see an RB1.  I see an RB2 with job security and workload guarantees.  The 7 guys I mentioned above, lasted maybe 2-3 weeks, Henry will do what they do for 16, and has significantly more upside.  But upside is only 'potential'.  Potential doesn't mean anything if it doesn't come to fruition.  The 40 points he scored in week 6, don't mean anything for the last 5 weeks we've played anymore.  I'm not taking it away, but the reality is that if TEN game ends in regulation, Henry's week 11 was just another lackluster 14 point game, which drops him from RB4 to RB18 for the week, and outside of the top24 RBs in PPG for the last 5 weeks.  He earned those points, they count, but as a player, when you analyze your assets, you can't be happy that it required overtime to hit your target valuations.  It's like owning a player who scores all their points in garbage time.  They still count, but it doesn't give me confidence for the next week, because I don't want to HAVE to rely on them.

3) TD regression is normal, was predictable, and isn't his fault.  He had an incredibly season last year, it was only reasonable expect a bit of a downfall.  Not Henry's fault.  I'd argue it has more to do with Tannehill year 2 combined with Jonnu's presence in the offense this year, but the injuries kind of derailed that, so it's still to be seen I think.

4) He does get too much hate, but he also gets too much love.  99% of all posts in this thread are too far toward one of those extremes.  I'm trying to be that 1%.

You are right, he IS top 3.  So let me ask you this... do you feel he's top 3 because of anything he's doing well this year?
Or do you feel he's top 3 because of the LACK of things anyone else has done this year?
How will value his 2020 'RB3 finish' when you draft for 2021?
Assuming we're still discussing PPR, are you going to draft Henry ahead of CMC? Barkley? Zeke? Cook? Kamara? Will you let 2020 shy you away from Michael Thomas or Devante Adams next year?
Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Stephon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins... all have more points than Henry does so far in 2020.  Albeit from a different position that we value less.

Are you drafting Henry with a top 3 pick next year?
Top 5 Pick? Top 8?

Because if you can't confidently tell me you would re-draft Henry from the 6-8 spot in 2021, then how am I suppose to believe you when you say he's out performed his ADP in 2020?  It's akin to racing against a clock.  If I draft a 6min mile and get a 7min mile... I'm not happy.  Even if the competition runs an 8-10min mile, I don't feel pleased with my performance because I sucked the least.  That's how I look at Henry.  I'm glad I'm in the lead, but I don't feel very good about the way it came about.

I've always been in the crowd that maintains that an end of season finish is not reflective of how a guy actually performed. An obvious example is DJ a few years ago where everyone liked to mention how he still finished as an RB1 when in reality anyone that owned him was able to say he was horrible. If a starting RB plays 16 games he is guaranteed RB2 production at a minimum. If he has volume he will likelhy get RB1 numbers.

However, Henry does not fit this bill. Henry is a safe floor RB that is mediocre for a good amount of games BUT he has massive blow up potential (arguably the best in the entire NFL). Outside of Cook and Kamara, he has been clearly the third best back no matter how you cut it. The CMC argument is absurd. Acting like being able to plug in a back that will get you double digit points out of the blue is easy is just wrong. The waiver wire is full of guys that will more likely than not get you 2-4 points. Unless CMC owners were able to get Davis, more likely than not whoever they put in as a replacement isn't even sniffing Henrys bad games. Sure CMC has won as much games as Henry but that doesn't take into account all the games he's lost.

That's the thing with Henry, he will never lose you games and he will flat out win a few a year. Maybe that's not your thing but that makes him a top 5 RB in any format in my book no matter what terminology you use to define a guys value.

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@FFCollusion

 

That’s all well and good, but the way you are describing an RB1, only 3 or 4 guys qualify every year.  


The only guys who smash almost every healthy week are the guys who I listed previously, and they were all drafted ahead of Henry... and Saquon wasn’t even performing at that level before his injury.  I wasn’t part of the pre-draft Cook v. Henry debate, but I was firmly on Cook at #3 (I liked him better than Kamara), so I won’t argue there.

 

Would I draft Henry in the 6-8 range again next year?  Like I said, I only play Half-PPR, but 100% absolutely

 

You argue that a few games of CMC, etc. plus a week-to-week replacement level RB is better than 16 weeks of Henry, but you fail to address the fact that most of us play in competitive leagues, where everyone is going for those RBs each week. You only have so much FAAB, and they aren’t a dime a dozen.

 

I’d rather have stability at my RB1 spot which allows me to focus on improving the rest of my team, rather than scrambling week-to-week to piece together a lineup while waiting for my “stud” to get healthy.

 

Henry might not smash every week, but typically the guys you take in the middle-to-late 1st Round aren’t going to either.  What he does do is give you a solid foundation to build a Championship team around, and he also has a ton of week-winning upside a few times a year.

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14 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I've always been in the crowd that maintains that an end of season finish is not reflective of how a guy actually performed. An obvious example is DJ a few years ago where everyone liked to mention how he still finished as an RB1 when in reality anyone that owned him was able to say he was horrible. If a starting RB plays 16 games he is guaranteed RB2 production at a minimum. If he has volume he will likelhy get RB1 numbers.

However, Henry does not fit this bill. Henry is a safe floor RB that is mediocre for a good amount of games BUT he has massive blow up potential (arguably the best in the entire NFL). Outside of Cook and Kamara, he has been clearly the third best back no matter how you cut it. The CMC argument is absurd. Acting like being able to plug in a back that will get you double digit points out of the blue is easy is just wrong. The waiver wire is full of guys that will more likely than not get you 2-4 points. Unless CMC owners were able to get Davis, more likely than not whoever they put in as a replacement isn't even sniffing Henrys bad games. Sure CMC has won as much games as Henry but that doesn't take into account all the games he's lost.

That's the thing with Henry, he will never lose you games and he will flat out win a few a year. Maybe that's not your thing but that makes him a top 5 RB in any format in my book no matter what terminology you use to define a guys value.

 

I would agree with this for the most part. Except where you mention that Henry "has been clearly the third best back no matter how you cut it". I own Henry. I also own JRob. And having followed both very closely, I can tell you that they've traded on the season ranking several times. Just last week JRob was 1 spot ahead of Henry. Henry and his (amaze-balls) OT score put him ahead this week. But JRob has to be in that same conversation, for this year, as Henry; behind Cook and Kamara. He simply has to be. And I'd even wonder if JRobs last round or waiver aqcuisition price doesn't make him the far more exciting and rewarding back to own between the two. It's one thing to draft Henry in the first round and get what you hoped for, more or less. It's an entirely different thing to get that same return on a basically zero investment. Now, I'm not saying JRob immediately vaults into the same ADP range as Henry next year - but for the right here right now? JRob has earned that respect.

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Oh Boy.

 

  • Colts placed DT DeForest Buckner on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

    It's unclear if Buckner has tested positive or is a close-contact of someone. If he's symptomatic and positive, Buckner will be forced to miss 14 days. If asymptomatic, it'll be 10 days. If Buckner can't play Week 12 against the Titans, it will be a big upgrade to Derrick Henry's matchup.

    Nov 25, 2020, 3:35 PM ET
     
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Did anybody here actually think Henry was gonna be a PPR stud?  What is this guy talking about lol.  Henry is playing exactly how we thought, td’s or bust with guaranteed volume.  Most of us probably don’t play in a full PPR league.  If you expected receptions then that’s you.  

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44 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Oh Boy.

 

  • Colts placed DT DeForest Buckner on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

    It's unclear if Buckner has tested positive or is a close-contact of someone. If he's symptomatic and positive, Buckner will be forced to miss 14 days. If asymptomatic, it'll be 10 days. If Buckner can't play Week 12 against the Titans, it will be a big upgrade to Derrick Henry's matchup.

    Nov 25, 2020, 3:35 PM ET
     
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Scroll up, I already posted this.

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It amuses me that there are 73 pages on this guy. He’s a certifiable stud and has been exactly as advertised. With all the first round busts this year he just keeps chugging along and with his playoff schedule will probably help win many championships. I have no idea what you all could’ve been discussing over the course of 73 pages, but carry on!

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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

It amuses me that there are 73 pages on this guy. He’s a certifiable stud and has been exactly as advertised. With all the first round busts this year he just keeps chugging along and with his playoff schedule will probably help win many championships. I have no idea what you all could’ve been discussing over the course of 73 pages, but carry on!

 

people are nitpicking.  #3 vs #5 vs #7, who cares.  No, he doesn't score 20+ per week like Cook, but he does run for over 100 yards fairly regularly, and has a few weeks where he's scored a bunch.  It's annoying that people are arguing about it - we knew he's no CMC, but that's why he didn't go first overall.  He's a stud.  He hasn't missed a single game, no headache with trying to replace him off waivers and wasting a roster spot. Playoff schedule is amazing.  Where he was drafted, he's giving us exactly what we paid for.

Sit back and enjoy the ride people.

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