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Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook


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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

It amuses me that there are 73 pages on this guy. He’s a certifiable stud and has been exactly as advertised. With all the first round busts this year he just keeps chugging along and with his playoff schedule will probably definitely help win many championships. I have no idea what you all could’ve been discussing over the course of 73 pages, but carry on!

Fixed that for you

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If Henry got COVID his body would immediately synthesize an antiviral to it. Henry would then exhale it throughout the Western Hemisphere (at minimum), ending the pandemic.   (Alshon's soft tissu

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6 minutes ago, matanp said:

 

people are nitpicking.  #3 vs #5 vs #7, who cares.  No, he doesn't score 20+ per week like Cook, but he does run for over 100 yards fairly regularly, and has a few weeks where he's scored a bunch.  It's annoying that people are arguing about it - we knew he's no CMC, but that's why he didn't go first overall.  He's a stud.  He hasn't missed a single game, no headache with trying to replace him off waivers and wasting a roster spot. Playoff schedule is amazing.  Where he was drafted, he's giving us exactly what we paid for.

Sit back and enjoy the ride people.

 

Solid return on his draft position.

 

Thing is Henry does his best work later in the season. End of season stats are nice to look at but Henry has put up some consistent numbers against some pretty strong defenses early in the season and now we are entering the time of the season that Henry historically has huge games. 

 

Henrys schedule lightens up tremendously for the playoff push and I think Dalvin faces Chicago week 15. 

 

 

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Henry called Dalvin Cookie Monster the best RB in the NFL and I'd have to agree with that. 

 

He catches like alvin Kamara and runs like Derrick Henry 👀

 

I have no complaints with Henry being slotted behind Cook, despite my love for Henry his lack of useage as a pass catcher will always make him less valuable to some in ppr and half ppr leagues as oppose to the better pass catching RBs but I think his consistency, dependability, and late season surges are well worth his 1st round ADP. 

 fantasy comes down to matchups and if you have Henry and are able to make the playoffs he has the kind of playoff schedule that can carry you right to the championship.

 

Cook has proven to be a dominant fantasy RB, receiving and running, no disputing that just hope Henry can squeeze out back to back rushing titles.

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On 11/25/2020 at 2:56 AM, FFCollusion said:

 

But... he doesn't get receptions.  This is why the (those of us who are reasonable) mentioned that Henry doesn't have #1 RB upside in PPR.  I'm not kidding when I say, that if Alvin Kamara takes the rest of the season off, Henry might not catch him (or Cook) before Week 16.  He's not even in the discussion or tier of true PPR elite backs.  Marshawn Lynch is the best 'fantasy' comparable to him.  Lynch was a stud, perennial top 10 RB, beast of a 'real' NFL player, and absolute joy to watch play... but he was NEVER in the discussion for #1 RB overall.  Henry shares all of those same traits.  Most NFL players are freaks... Henry was already a freak 'for his position', and a double freak because of his body type, playing that position.

Having said that, I think there are a lot of rose colored glasses around here.  I understand that trolling breeds trolling, which is why DHC gets so many visitors here, because he's been a troll for years, and so when Henry struggles, they all come to repay the debt.  But there are legitimate concerns with Henry from a 'big picture' fantasy perspective if you're being honest with yourselves.  Everyone here knows I'm all about data and statistic driven analysis.

Henry ranks 18th among RBs in points per game over the last 5 weeks.
Drafted right next to each other, Dalvin Cook, in 1 less game, has out produced Henry by 33% through 10 weeks.
Derrick Henry, despite costing 300% more in 2020 than he did in 2019, is producing 10% less than he did last year. (TD regression was to be expected and normal)

James Robinson and Derrick Henry are separated by 8 points, but drafted 15 rounds apart.  Now, JRob being good, doesn't negate Henry being good.  My point is that, perspective matters.  Imagine if player threads were labelled by the points they've scored so far... Now consider that J.Rob and Henry are only 8 points apart, go read his thread and compare it to this one, and logically try to explain why they seem to be so drastically different.  It's a good exercise on valuing points rather than names or draft capital.  This thread is convinced Henry can do no wrong, that thread is saying they're happy to have a solid RB2 who's going to end up as an RB1 due to league circumstances.
 

I believe owners are... in a relationship.  You can't see it while you're in the moment, but once the season is over, you'll look back and be like... yeah that wasn't great.
Derrick is salvaging his entire season, by attrition.  He'll be regarded as a good pick, because 'well at least it wasn't a complete bust like <name 99% of other 1st/2nd rounders who are dead and gone>.  In that regard, I completely agree.  If I can come out of the first 2 rounds without hitting any landmines, I'm feeling pretty confident any given season.  In that regard, Henry is a fine pick.  Next year though, when more people start analyzing 2020 and their data include 3-5 years of stats rather than 3-5 weeks of points and emotion... they're going to realize that Henry's season has been meh.  It's been slightly inflated by 2 big weeks.  I'm NOT saying those weeks don't count and I'm not saying take them away.  What I'm saying is that, when and how you score points matters.  We're 10 weeks into the season and 37% of Henry's current points, came in 2 weeks.  He's averaged 14 ppg over the other 8 weeks you've owned him.  The truth is he's being buoyed by the absolute ****show of 2020 in which nearly every one else absolutely destroyed seasons, whereas Henry was boring, but reliable, and played every week.

Let me be clear, this isn't anything against Henry, as it applies to all RBs after him in total points right now too.  It's not the first time I've had this discussion on this forum either.  2015 the same thing happened, I believe it was THE worst RB season of this era, and I stressed that when evaluating the big picture, you have to take that into consideration  Do not be fooled by a top 5 RB season in 2015, because in any normal year, they wouldn't have even been an RB1.

Big picture, even though Henry is currently RB3... no one is drafting him top 3 next year.  That's because no one truly values him that way.  He's a mid to low range RB1, who will finish as either a high or low RB1 based on the landscape around him, not because of what he personally does.  His value comes in workload, goal line work, and being a tank who doesn't miss games, because in fantasy, sometimes the best ability, is avail-ability.  Other backs will come and go based on stars aligning in the reception and TD categories, but Henry does what he does, incredibly well.  Yards, yards, and more yards, with a healthy amount of TDs to pair with them.

Now... It's about that time of year when Henry will go on a massive run and carry people to the playoffs.  Hopefully he doesn't dump them at the doorstep and abandon you this time.

Good luck to you all.  I only did 3 leagues this year, while it's still too early to call, I don't believe the Henry owner will make the playoffs in a single one.

 

It's pretty clear you have an axe to grind with certain posters in this thread.  That's fine, but you should keep it to yourself and not let it bleed into your fantasy analysis.  The obnoxious little asides like "those of us who are reasonable" really undermine any points you are making.  

Unlike the majority of your posts (which are really quite good), you use a lot of words here to say very little and mostly beat up strawmen.  

Derrick Henry was drafted in the mid-late 1st round this year.  He was not, in the vast majority of drafts, drafted over PPR studs like Kamara or McCaffery.  To the extent he was drafted over someone like Cook, that more has to do with that perception that Cook is an injury risk. 

Let me be clear:  The vast majority of folks here and in the fantasy community do not believe Henry has #1 RB upside in PPR formats.  They're also aware that, in PPR formats, Henry has a lower floor and more variance in production, given he isn't buoyed by receptions and he is more TD dependent.

That said, let's look at some more facts: 

- In .5 PPR, among flex players (RB/WR/TE), Derrick Henry is ranked 4th.  He is behind only Cook, Kamara, and Adams.  

In .5 PPR, among flex players (RB/WR/TE), Derrick Henry AVERAGES the 5th highest fantasy points per game.  He is behind the above players, as well as McCaffery. 

Derrick Henry plays RB, a position with a ton of scarcity.  

^^^^  Based on the above, Derrick Henry is very clearly a 1st round pick and represents good draft value relative to his ADP (mid-late 1st).  I'll repeat that:  Derrick Henry was a good fantasy pick in the vast majority of formats. 

People in this thread are rightfully happy that their 1st rounder held value as a Top 5 fantasy player.  

 

 

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hard to deny that he should go 1.1 next year, if you want to win your league. He may not light the league on fire to start the year, but if you can get to the playoffs, he is the most valuable asset in fantasy, easily, when this time of year rolls around.  

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Derrick Henry rushed 27 times for 178 yards and three touchdowns in the Titans' Week 12 win against the Colts, adding two catches for seven yards. 

Henry gashed the Colts vaunted front seven from the first snap, often running four or five yards before first contact. He saw four targets on the day, scoring a touchdown on what appeared to be a screen pass but was later changed to a rushing score because Ryan Tannehill's pass was a lateral. Henry continues to see massive volume as the centerpiece of the Titans offense: he's rushed 55 times over the past two weeks, bludgeoning defenders with seemingly every carry. Henry will be his usual high-end RB1 self in Week 13 against Cleveland. 

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5 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Derrick Henry rushed 27 times for 178 yards and three touchdowns in the Titans' Week 12 win against the Colts, adding two catches for seven yards. 

Henry gashed the Colts vaunted front seven from the first snap, often running four or five yards before first contact. He saw four targets on the day, scoring a touchdown on what appeared to be a screen pass but was later changed to a rushing score because Ryan Tannehill's pass was a lateral. Henry continues to see massive volume as the centerpiece of the Titans offense: he's rushed 55 times over the past two weeks, bludgeoning defenders with seemingly every carry. Henry will be his usual high-end RB1 self in Week 13 against Cleveland. 

 

Yea but only the 2 catches bro? 

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This guy is such a throwback. His style of running through people rather than around them hasn't been applied so effectively for generations. You really have to go back to Campbell and Dickerson to find guys that really fit that description so thoroughly. Henry doesn't run with quite the tenacity of those guys or display the incredible vision and balance that they did, but he arguably has a stronger burst and top-end speed. In that regard, he's sort of a modern hyrbrid combining the physicality of a bygone era with the rare size/speed combination that today's scouting departments drool over: He can both run you over and fly past you. A rare breed, indeed.

Edited by EaglesRocker97
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