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Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook


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If Henry got COVID his body would immediately synthesize an antiviral to it. Henry would then exhale it throughout the Western Hemisphere (at minimum), ending the pandemic.   (Alshon's soft tissu

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1 hour ago, Al.Davis said:

The 3 dudes that do the rankings over at fantasypros.com each have King Henry as the #1 RB for the rest of the season across all scoring formats - Standard, Half PPR, and Full PPR.

We don't need no stinkin' catches!

 

So it appears the guys at fantasy pros have been reading my posts in this thread.

 

 

1254172884282.jpg_1254173845.cf (1).jpg

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Fun facts:

In the 42 games (less than 3 seasons) he has started he has 4,278 yards, 45 TDs, 3 games of 200+ yards and 20 games of 100+ yards.

 

Wait a tick, are you telling me that for almost the last 3 full seasons that Henry has averaged 101 rushing yards and 1.1 TDs per game and that he averages 16+ fantasy points per game over the last 3 seasons?

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4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

What a fun clip to watch!

There are 10 highlights in this clip.  100% of them....yes all 10 out of 10....have Henry lining up 7 yards deep in the backfield.  No flat-footed pistol nonsense!

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In 17 career games in the month of December, Henry has totaled 1,511 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on 5.4 yards per tote, along with 16 receptions for 157 yards and one more score.

 

looking forward to a Dehenber to remember.

 

https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2020/12/01/as-dhenber-begins-derrick-henry-is-already-an-mvp-candidate/amp/

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

In 17 career games in the month of December, Henry has totaled 1,511 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on 5.4 yards per tote, along with 16 receptions for 157 yards and one more score.

 

looking forward to a Dehenber to remember.

 

https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2020/12/01/as-dhenber-begins-derrick-henry-is-already-an-mvp-candidate/amp/

But will he catch more passes? I don’t want him if he isn’t going to catch more passes. 

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8 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

As we approach the playoffs, do you guys think it's worth trying to handcuff Henry? My gut tells me that (i) this will be a RBBC if he goes down and (ii) if he gets injured I'm ****** anyways so why bother.

Thoughts?

Pretty much my train of thought. I’ve got other high end cuffs like Booker, JWilliams and Murray, but can’t convince myself it’s worth grabbing McNichols or Foreman.

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2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Titans' Mike Vrabel says Derrick Henry is an improved pass-catcher, team needs to involve him more often 👀

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/titans-mike-vrabel-says-derrick-henry-is-an-improved-pass-catcher-team-needs-to-involve-him-more-often/amp/

He is a beast, but if the Derrick Express starts adding 4-5 catches a game we're talking about serious business here.

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"The thing is, though, Henry is actually a pretty efficient pass-catcher. Consider this: among the 63 running backs with at least 50 receptions over the past four seasons, Henry ranks seventh in yards per reception (9.2) despite having an average route-break 1.4 yards behind the line of scrimmage, per Pro Football Focus and Tru Media. Henry also ranks third among that same group of players in yards after catch per reception (9.9)."

 

🤔

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49 minutes ago, JAG_challam said:

That could easily push him into 1.1 territory next year.


There would be zero doubt about him being the 1.01 next year if he starts to catch 4-5 passes AND still gets 20+ carries every game.

 

Stretch 4 catches a game over 16, and he finishes with 64 catches. Only 7 RBs went over 60 catches last year, and only one of them had 280+ carries... it was the historic CMC.

 

The thing is, Henry is as sure as it gets for 300+ carries every year too, so we are talking about 360ish touches for a guy who is averaging 1.3 FF pts (0.5 ppr) per touch this year. 
 

If he is even 30% or 40% less efficient per touch while getting that many carries AND catches... I’m not sure we’ll ever be able to predict a more sure fire 1.01 pick than King Henry.

Edited by next big thing cp84
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1 minute ago, next big thing cp84 said:


There would be zero doubt about him being the 1.01 next year if he starts to catch 4-5 passes AND still gets 25+ carries.

 

Stretch 4 catches a game over 16, and he finishes with 64 catches. Only 7 RBs went over 60 catches last year, and only one of them had 280+ carries... it was the historic CMC.

 

The thing is, Henry is as sure as it gets for 300+ carries every year too, so we are talking about 360ish touches for a guy who is averaging 1.3 FF pts (0.5 ppr) per touch this year. 
 

If he is even 30% or 40% less efficient per touch while getting that many carries AND catches... I’m not sure we’ll ever be able to predict a more sure fire 1.01 pick than King Henry.

 

Not to mention in real life football that's how you win a super bowl. By not allowing Henry to be game scripted out. He can house any screen pass at any given moment

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With regards to pass-catching, it’s not so much that I think it would be beneficial to have him as the “pass-catching” back (for 3rd and Longs & Hurry-Ups), but I think it would be HUGELY effective if they would mix it up and throw him some high percentage targets on 1st and 2nd down (swing passes, screen passes, etc.).  


They seemed to do that last week, and we saw what happened.

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22 hours ago, MingusDew said:

As we approach the playoffs, do you guys think it's worth trying to handcuff Henry? My gut tells me that (i) this will be a RBBC if he goes down and (ii) if he gets injured I'm ****** anyways so why bother.

Thoughts?

 

The King missed my fantasy league's championship game last year due to a hamstring in week 16.  After drafting Henry in the first round this year I drafted Darrynton Evans late to be his handcuff.  Evans was a third round pick and was supposed to be the backup but hurt his hammy and has been out forever.  Titans have to activate him by Monday or he will be on season long IR.  Evans has barely played and on the smaller side (5'10", 203) so even if he is activated probably not a workhorse.  

Foreman is built more like Henry at 6'1", 236 and has pedigree.  Injuries derailed his career but he has had a couple of nice games with his limited opportunities including 4 carries for 28 yards vs Indy.  He was limited in practice on Wednesday (knee) but full participant today.  If Henry misses a game, my guess is Foreman would get the bulk of the carries including all goal line carries.

McNichols is smaller, 5'9", 205" and has been decent with his opportunities.  More of a change of pace and passing down back.  

This matters because the schedule is golden!  Week 14,15,16 vs Jax, Detroit and G.B., three of the very worst teams vs RB.  Of course Foreman would not replicate what Henry could do vs these opponents but should be able to be a serviceable starter in plus plus matchups.  It would probably be a better bet than your 3rd or 4th RB.

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I don’t get why almost all his receptions are RB screens where he stops to face the QB instead of wheel route variants where’s he’s running already.

There’s a reason almost all his top plays are when he’s starting like 5-7 yards in the backfield. Henry is extremely dominant when he has some speed behind him and he’s very easy to tackle when he’s starting from a stand still. Kind of obvious when you consider his size and lack of lateral quickness. So it should also be obvious to get him passes where he’s already running. 

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4 hours ago, trilly said:

Just realized that with the schedule ahead, Henry has a legitimate shot at hitting 2k. Would be pretty amazing if he makes that happen

Vrabel is the type of coach to see this too. And will do everything possible to help Henry achieve this goal. Just like he did last year.

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@pastorofmuppets2 as a gambler I know you have to be objective in your analysis.

 

Can I get an emoji filled response on your thoughts of King Hendry's last 2 games and his outlook going forward as we head into the month of December and the fantasy football money weeks 14-16 when King Hendry will be facing rushing defenses of JAX, DET, and GB?

 

Also, could I get any comments or breakdowns on how Henrys overall RB ranking would be affected if the blurb below were to come to fruition:

 

Titans coach Mike Vrabel said the team has to "be able to throw the ball" to Derrick Henry more.

"We have to be able to throw the ball to him," Vrabel said. "We would like to continue to work on the screen game with him, but teams have defended it well. Maybe [Titans] haven't run them well. He has a unique skill set, but we need to do a better job than just handing it off to him." Henry's 26 targets this year are actually a new career-high, but 2.4 per game is still an egregious amount considering his skillset to flip the field on a head of steam with one catch. Henry has still averaged 29 touches in Tennessee's last two wins as the focal part of the offense, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game (20.1) among running backs this year. Any additional opportunity from Ryan Tannehill would simply be the cherry on top of his outstanding season.

 

 

Any and all insights would be much appreciated as I have missed your sage wisdom these last few weeks and am lucky to have treaded water during your absence.

 

Thanking you in advance, I am,

DHC

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

@pastorofmuppets2 as a gambler I know you have to be objective in your analysis.

 

Can I get an emoji filled response on your thoughts of King Hendry's last 2 games and his outlook going forward as we head into the month of December and the fantasy football money weeks 14-16 when King Hendry will be facing rushing defenses of JAX, DET, and GB?

 

Also, could I get any comments or breakdowns on how Henrys overall RB ranking would be affected if the blurb below were to come to fruition:

 

Titans coach Mike Vrabel said the team has to "be able to throw the ball" to Derrick Henry more.

"We have to be able to throw the ball to him," Vrabel said. "We would like to continue to work on the screen game with him, but teams have defended it well. Maybe [Titans] haven't run them well. He has a unique skill set, but we need to do a better job than just handing it off to him." Henry's 26 targets this year are actually a new career-high, but 2.4 per game is still an egregious amount considering his skillset to flip the field on a head of steam with one catch. Henry has still averaged 29 touches in Tennessee's last two wins as the focal part of the offense, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game (20.1) among running backs this year. Any additional opportunity from Ryan Tannehill would simply be the cherry on top of his outstanding season.

 

 

Any and all insights would be much appreciated as I have missed your sage wisdom these last few weeks and am lucky to have treaded water during your absence.

 

Thanking you in advance, I am,

DHC

 

🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘

only one response to that magick foosball playoff sched (and it just may be an understatement):

 

tenor.gif?itemid=4464831

 

you've seen me opine this before, and im'ma double down like a mofo on it now: this two year run he's on is the single most dominant we've ever seen from the position.

full.  

stop.

King Hendry's 2019 season eclipsed that of AP's 2012 MVP campaign, and it looks like 2020 is gonna be even better. 

let that sink in. 

the kid has planted himself in the MVP convo again, no question ...

'Homie is now the face of the Leeg/Shield, so no way in hell will Hendry outpoint him on votes, we all know that. 

but could the Titans tread water with a high school coach in King Hendry's place the way the Chiefs did last year when 'Homie sat for a few?  (btw, this is meant to be rhetorical, so y'all can put down the pitchforks).

look, i'm not disparaging #15 at all ... plz go to his 2018 outlook thread when he was being doubted, and see who was beating his drum longest and loudest in the face of the naysayers. ('twas me).

he's generational.  and transcendent.  guy is in a zone very few, from any sport or endeavor, can ever reach.

 

... but so is Hendry. 

 

as loathe as i am to try not to jinx a cat so many of us are relying on by praising him on the eve of coin season, here i am ... i owe that to you, Cleatz - we've had plenty of discussions on this - and you have always remained steadfast and true blue. 

 

btw, i bet if ya had occaision to be a fly on the wall inside the inner sanctum of KoolAid & co you'd keep hearing about one team they want no part of in late Jan/early Feb ... and it ain't the Stillers. 

nope.

it's the Titans ... and it's because of this one individual. 

reminds me of how the legendary Earl Campbell gave the great Stiller dynasty agita back in the late 70s ... him and Bum never did get to kick that door totally down (though Renfro DID have both feet in 😡) ... but i believe King Hendry and Vrabel got enuff juice and swag to be the only viable thorn in the great 'Homie's side. 

it's gonna be epic. 

 

🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘

 

 

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘

only one response to that magick foosball playoff sched (and it just may be an understatement):

 

tenor.gif?itemid=4464831

 

you've seen me opine this before, and im'ma double down like a mofo on it now: this two year run he's on is the single most dominant we've ever seen from the position.

full.  

stop.

King Hendry's 2019 season eclipsed that of AP's 2012 MVP campaign, and it looks like 2020 is gonna be even better. 

let that sink in. 

the kid has planted himself in the MVP convo again, no question ...

'Homie is now the face of the Leeg/Shield, so no way in hell will Hendry outpoint him on votes, we all know that. 

but could the Titans tread water with a high school coach in King Hendry's place the way the Chiefs did last year when 'Homie sat for a few?  (btw, this is meant to be rhetorical, so y'all can put down the pitchforks).

look, i'm not disparaging #15 at all ... plz go to his 2018 outlook thread when he was being doubted, and see who was beating his drum longest and loudest in the face of the naysayers. ('twas me).

he's generational.  and transcendent.  guy is in a zone very few, from any sport or endeavor, can ever reach.

 

... but so is Hendry. 

 

as loathe as i am to try not to jinx a cat so many of us are relying on by praising him on the eve of coin season, here i am ... i owe that to you, Cleatz - we've had plenty of discussions on this - and you have always remained steadfast and true blue. 

 

btw, i bet if ya had occaision to be a fly on the wall inside the inner sanctum of KoolAid & co you'd keep hearing about one team they want no part of in late Jan/early Feb ... and it ain't the Stillers. 

nope.

it's the Titans ... and it's because of this one individual. 

reminds me of how the legendary Earl Campbell gave the great Stiller dynasty agita back in the late 70s ... him and Bum never did get to kick that door totally down (though Renfro DID have both feet in 😡) ... but i believe King Hendry and Vrabel got enuff juice and swag to be the only viable thorn in the great 'Homie's side. 

it's gonna be epic. 

 

🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘🐘

 

 

 

Astute analysis as usual and I agree with all of it. 

 

I agree Maholmie is on a whole different level than everyone else. No doubt the face of the league and he is an impressive guy to watch with the no look passes and the accuracy. Talk about the perfect talent meeting the perfect situation with "The Walrus" AKA Kool-Aid Coach, AKA the Bill Bellichick of offense, And Reid. What impresses me most about Maholmie is that even when he is forced out of the pocket he is not phased at all. One of the ways to beat prime Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were to get them out of the pocket where they were most effective, Maholmie to me is equally effective inside or outside the pocket and is a bit more mobile than prime Brady or Manning. There really just are not enough superlatives to describe what Reid and Maholmes are doing in and to the NFL right now.

 

All that being said, I do think the Titans have a secret recipe for beating the Chiefs and I enjoy the David vs Goliath type of comparisons. It would take a team that could do 2 things to beat the Chiefs:

 

1. Need a team that can control the time of possession. The fewer opportunities given to Maholmes and the KC offense the better. 

 

2. KC will score, that's a given. There will be a couple or more occasions where the defense must hold Maholmes and the KC offense to a field goal or a timely turnover.

 

I thought Tennessee was very close last year. They jumped out to an early lead against KC but I still wonder if Henry was running out of gas that game, they only gave him 16 carries that game despite taking an early lead but KC did a good job of trying to stop him and focusing on limiting his effectiveness. When KC does that it is gonna be important that Tannehill answer the bell. Tannehill couldn't convert critical 3rd downs and the defense couldn't hold the KC offense out of the end zone, that ended up being the difference. 

 

I've always contended that if you could work Henry into the screen game you would soften that defense up some by not becoming so predictable on your playcalling due to personnel packages. That and Henry can flip a field with one play so it's important to keep the defense off balance and help move the chains and eat up the clock.

 

I read an article that Dean Peas was itching to get back in the coaching ranks. I wish Vrabel would call on him. Their defense would really have to come up big to get past a team like KC but the Titans offense is built to chew time off the clock if the defense could get a few timely stops or turnovers on Maholmie.

 

Those week 14-16 matchups for Henry is what dreams are made of. 

 

If Henry finished the season and the postseason being more incorporated in the passing game would he be in the discussion for #1 overall draft pick in 2021?

 

 

 

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