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Derrick Henry 2020 Outlook


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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

A 6 TD game certainly helped him.

2021 will be a new year and I'd think Kamara is due to regress some from that 21 TD number, that number could drop into the lower teens if Brees retires. 

 

He had a good 2020 thanks to Brees dump offs but his fantasy value being so high is tied to Brees and those dump offs. Weeks 11-14 when Taysom Hill was the starting QB, Derrick Henry almost tripled his rushing and TD production and had the same amount of receptions 👀

Alvin Kamara will do fine with or without Brees next year. Taysom was thrown into the fire those 3 games, with preparation they will realize their team runs through Kamara and the short passes. The only sliver of hope that Henry can beat out Kamara is if he gets injured. Zero chance Kamara would get phased out with even with Taysom at qb LOL.

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23 minutes ago, straightfire118 said:

Alvin Kamara will do fine with or without Brees next year. Taysom was thrown into the fire those 3 games, with preparation they will realize their team runs through Kamara and the short passes. The only sliver of hope that Henry can beat out Kamara is if he gets injured. Zero chance Kamara would get phased out with even with Taysom at qb LOL.

 

That's an interesting opinion that lacks any facts, just what you think will happen vs what we all watched happen with our own eyes.

 

I would be wary of drafting Kamara with a top 3 pick if Brees were to retire. With Henry I have no such concerns. His workload is predictable.

 

TDs tend to fluctuate, it will be very hard for Kamara to repeat 21 TDs and almost impossible for him to do if Brees retires. If Taysom Hill as his QB he could have as few as 8 since he only had 2 in the 4 games hill started this season.  That's is some volatile fluctuation for a potential top 3 pick. 

 

I'd stick with the safe bet, 👑 Henry.

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20 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

That's an interesting opinion that lacks any facts, just what you think will happen vs what we all watched happen with our own eyes.

 

I would be wary of drafting Kamara with a top 3 pick if Brees were to retire. With Henry I have no such concerns. His workload is predictable.

 

TDs tend to fluctuate, it will be very hard for Kamara to repeat 21 TDs and almost impossible for him to do if Brees retires. If Taysom Hill as his QB he could have as few as 8 since he only had 2 in the 4 games hill started this season.  That's is some volatile fluctuation for a potential top 3 pick. 

 

I'd stick with the safe bet, 👑 Henry.

Lol all of your opinions come with no facts. Kamara has been the superior fantasy player the day he stepped into the league and that's just facts. Your only argument is that if Brees retires he'll be bad? Lol that's just a laughable opinion with the smallest of sample sizes and Hill was thrown into the fire in the middle of the season. Also with such a big workload that Henry needs to be viable he's more likely to come down with a serious injury than Kamara. Kamara is not volatile in fact the complete opposite LOL.

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9 minutes ago, straightfire118 said:

Lol all of your opinions come with no facts. Kamara has been the superior fantasy player the day he stepped into the league and that's just facts. Your only argument is that if Brees retires he'll be bad? Lol that's just a laughable opinion with the smallest of sample sizes and Hill was thrown into the fire in the middle of the season. Also with such a big workload that Henry needs to be viable he's more likely to come down with a serious injury than Kamara. Kamara is not volatile in fact the complete opposite LOL.

 

Kamara wasn't great in 2019, Henry was superior.

 

Again, Kamara has dropped off fantasy production with Hill at QB, those are the facts. If you think Hill will progress into a better QB for Kamaras fantasy stats then that is certainly an opinion. Another opinion is that Kamaras downward trend with Hill at QB continues as we have seen previously. 

 

Kamara has benefited from having a HOF QB and coach for his entire career so comparing early career stats to the last couple of seasons is somewhat irrelevant since we are focused on what each might do going into 2021. While Kamara did have 21 TDs this year he only had 6 last year, that's highly volatile production from year to year the past couple seasons. With a looming Brees retirement I think it would be premature to assume Kamara would come close to the 21 TDs he had this year when he only had 2 in 4 games with Hill at QB. That would extrapolate out to 8 TDs in 16 games if Hill were to be the starting QB, not what you would love from your top 3 pick. Henry on the other hand has had back to back 15+ TD seasons, much more reliable and less volatile from season to season.

 

So while it might be true that Kamara outscored Henry in fantasy points this year it took a 21 TD season to help make that a reality, that 21 TD season will be harder for Kamara to do for a second season in a row than it will be for Henry to turn in another 15+ TD season. 

 

Henry was the better fantasy asset in 2019 than Kamara by a wide margin.

 

Kamara nudged Henry out for fantasy production in 2020 with Brees as his QB despite the fact that Henry tripled Kamaras production during the time Hill was AKs QB.

 

2021 is yet to be determined but Henry is a safe bet to repeat his YD numbers while AKs will almost certainly drop down from this past years 21 TDs.

 

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

You don't want to disregard the facts do you?

 

They both have appeal to their games but if Kamara's production falls off a cliff with a QB not named Drew Brees then that is worth taking note of since Drew would be 42 years old next season. Combine that with how unlikely it is for Kamara to repeat 21 TDs then it's easy to see how he could regress to the mean next year and maybe worse if Brees is not the QB and even worse than that if Taysom Hill ends up starting for NO.

 

 

 

So I guess if Tannehill goes down Henry will go back to being the 400-700 yards per season RB he was the first 2 years? Lol

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16 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

So I guess if Tannehill goes down Henry will go back to being the 400-700 yards per season RB he was the first 2 years? Lol

 

That's an interesting question but I think not simply because the offense has stabilized a bit since Henry has become the centerpiece, I do think the Titans need to get a capable backup that can really run the playaction well because the fake to Henry is part of what makes Tannehill so succesfull but I do see the concern because of how Henry looked at times when teams didn't respect the playaction pass. I do think that would be a major concern if I were the Titans and I'd be looking to acquire a guy like Gardner Minshew to back up Tannehill this off-season. 

 

But right now the Titans backup is Logan woodside, so I do think Henrys numbers would suffer if woodside were to be inserted at QB long term but even when Henry had a sluggish Mariota he still got 1,000 yards in a season when he started getting the majority of the reps. 

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I have no interest in the Kamara vs. Henry debate as both are great players and it depends on your scoring system, but AK's value isn't tied to Brees specifically. When Bridgewater played in 2019, Kamara was targeted just fine. When Winston stepped in against the 49ers, Kamara had 4 catches during that 2nd half.

If Hill is QB, Kamara gets downgraded, yes. Mobile QBs dump off less to RBs (Lamar, Murray, Allen, etc.) In the last game Hill started, Kamara's targets had jumped - if Hill is their starting QB next year, my guess is that Kamara will end the season in the 60-70 catch range - a step down from where he is with less mobile QBs, but Payton's too smart to avoid targeting Kamara heavily. 

It's clear that NO was learning what they had with Hill this year - with a full offseason to plan, my guess is they would do something closer to what Carolina did with CMC when Cam was QB there. If the uncertainty means I can get Kamara at a decent discount vs. Henry, I'd lean AK. If they're similarly priced, I'd lean Henry as I would expect a drop in TDs as for AK as well. 

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1 hour ago, trilly said:

I have no interest in the Kamara vs. Henry debate as both are great players and it depends on your scoring system, but AK's value isn't tied to Brees specifically. When Bridgewater played in 2019, Kamara was targeted just fine. When Winston stepped in against the 49ers, Kamara had 4 catches during that 2nd half.

If Hill is QB, Kamara gets downgraded, yes. Mobile QBs dump off less to RBs (Lamar, Murray, Allen, etc.) In the last game Hill started, Kamara's targets had jumped - if Hill is their starting QB next year, my guess is that Kamara will end the season in the 60-70 catch range - a step down from where he is with less mobile QBs, but Payton's too smart to avoid targeting Kamara heavily. 

It's clear that NO was learning what they had with Hill this year - with a full offseason to plan, my guess is they would do something closer to what Carolina did with CMC when Cam was QB there. If the uncertainty means I can get Kamara at a decent discount vs. Henry, I'd lean AK. If they're similarly priced, I'd lean Henry as I would expect a drop in TDs as for AK as well. 


agreed. Kamara will be fine no matter who his qb is. Sean payton will have time to draw up plays and schemes to get the RB they just gave a boat load of money the ball. 

Both backs are due for regression. Not man backs score 20+ TDs two seasons in a row and no RB ever rushed for 2000 yards back to back... or ever twice in a career.

I think some ppl are thinking us Henry addicts are saying kamara is bad or less than Henry. When I believe most of us are simply saying it’s a closer comparison than expected. And pending on league format and maybe Henry deserves to be drafted ahead of kamara. 

 

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Derrick Henry had a truly remarkable 2020 season. He was fifth all-time in single season rushing yards. I did a little experiment which I spent an unhealthy amount of time on.  

Hypothesis: The top 11 RB's in all-time single season rushing yardage experienced a significant decline in yardage, TD's, and touches in the following season. 

Methodology: A data-driven approach was used to formulate an opinion based on facts instead of subjectively. For the top 11 RB all-time single season rushing leaders, I pulled the following stats for the record season and the season after: rushing yards, rushing TD's, receiving yards, receiving TD's, total yards, total TD's, and total touches. I then calculated the percentage difference between the record season and the season after. 

Conclusion: In almost all respects, the top 11 RB's in all-time single season rushing yardage experience significant decreases in yardage, TD's, and touches. 

 

    Year Rushing Yards Rushing TD's Receiving Yards Receiving TD's Total Yards Total Yardage Percentage Decrease Total TD's Total TD %decrease Total Touches Total Touches % Decrease
1 Eric Dickerson+ (24) 1984 2,105 14 139 0 2,244   14   400  
    1985 1,234 12 126 0 1,360 -39.39% 12 -14.29% 312 -22.00%
2 Adrian Peterson (27) 2012 2,097 12 217 1 2,314   13   388  
    2013 1,266 10 171 1 1,437 -37.90% 11 -15.38% 308 -20.62%
3 Jamal Lewis (24) 2003 2,066 14 205 0 2,271   14   413  
    2004 1,006 7 116 0 1,122 -50.59% 7 -50.00% 245 -40.68%
4 Barry Sanders + (29) 1997 2,053 11 305 3 2,358   14   368  
    1998 1,491 4 289 0 1,780 -24.51% 4 -71.43% 380 3.26%
5 Derrick Henry (26) 2020 2,027 17 114 0 2,141   17   397  
6 Terrell Davis + (25) 1998 2,008 21 217 2 2,225   23   417  
    1999 211 2 26 0 237 -89.35% 2 -91.30% 70 -83.21%
7 Chris Johnson (23) 2009 2,006 14 503 2 2,509   16   408  
    2010 1,364 11 245 1 1,609 -35.87% 12 -25.00% 360 -11.76%
8 O.J. Simpson+ (26) 1973 2,003 12 70 0 2,073   12   338  
    1974 1,125 3 189 1 1,314 -36.61% 4 -66.67% 285 -15.68%
9 Earl Campbell+ (25) 1980 1,934 13 47 0 1,981   13   384  
    1981 1,376 10 156 0 1,532 -22.67% 10 -23.08% 397 3.39%
10 Ahman Green (26) 2003 1,883 15 367 5 2,250   20   405  
    2004 1,163 7 275 1 1,438 -36.09% 8 -60.00% 299 -26.17%
10 Barry Sanders + (26) 1994 1,883 7 283 1 2,166   8   375  
    1995 1500 11 398 1 1,898 -12.37% 12 50.00% 362 -3.47%

 

All Time Rushing Leaders Decline.xlsx

Edited by MurderInc
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11 hours ago, MurderInc said:

Derrick Henry had a truly remarkable 2020 season. He was fifth all-time in single season rushing yards. I did a little experiment which I spent an unhealthy amount of time on.  

Hypothesis: The top 11 RB's in all-time single season rushing yardage experienced a significant decline in yardage, TD's, and touches in the following season. 

Methodology: A data-driven approach was used to formulate an opinion based on facts instead of subjectively. For the top 11 RB all-time single season rushing leaders, I pulled the following stats for the record season and the season after: rushing yards, rushing TD's, receiving yards, receiving TD's, total yards, total TD's, and total touches. I then calculated the percentage difference between the record season and the season after. 

Conclusion: In almost all respects, the top 11 RB's in all-time single season rushing yardage experience significant decreases in yardage, TD's, and touches. 

 

    Year Rushing Yards Rushing TD's Receiving Yards Receiving TD's Total Yards Total Yardage Percentage Decrease Total TD's Total TD %decrease Total Touches Total Touches % Decrease
1 Eric Dickerson+ (24) 1984 2,105 14 139 0 2,244   14   400  
    1985 1,234 12 126 0 1,360 -39.39% 12 -14.29% 312 -22.00%
2 Adrian Peterson (27) 2012 2,097 12 217 1 2,314   13   388  
    2013 1,266 10 171 1 1,437 -37.90% 11 -15.38% 308 -20.62%
3 Jamal Lewis (24) 2003 2,066 14 205 0 2,271   14   413  
    2004 1,006 7 116 0 1,122 -50.59% 7 -50.00% 245 -40.68%
4 Barry Sanders + (29) 1997 2,053 11 305 3 2,358   14   368  
    1998 1,491 4 289 0 1,780 -24.51% 4 -71.43% 380 3.26%
5 Derrick Henry (26) 2020 2,027 17 114 0 2,141   17   397  
6 Terrell Davis + (25) 1998 2,008 21 217 2 2,225   23   417  
    1999 211 2 26 0 237 -89.35% 2 -91.30% 70 -83.21%
7 Chris Johnson (23) 2009 2,006 14 503 2 2,509   16   408  
    2010 1,364 11 245 1 1,609 -35.87% 12 -25.00% 360 -11.76%
8 O.J. Simpson+ (26) 1973 2,003 12 70 0 2,073   12   338  
    1974 1,125 3 189 1 1,314 -36.61% 4 -66.67% 285 -15.68%
9 Earl Campbell+ (25) 1980 1,934 13 47 0 1,981   13   384  
    1981 1,376 10 156 0 1,532 -22.67% 10 -23.08% 397 3.39%
10 Ahman Green (26) 2003 1,883 15 367 5 2,250   20   405  
    2004 1,163 7 275 1 1,438 -36.09% 8 -60.00% 299 -26.17%
10 Barry Sanders + (26) 1994 1,883 7 283 1 2,166   8   375  
    1995 1500 11 398 1 1,898 -12.37% 12 50.00% 362 -3.47%

 

All Time Rushing Leaders Decline.xlsxUnavailable

This is the type of posts that should be made on these forums; analytical appreciation of stats, history and trends.

Keep it up man.

To add, Henry has had 300 carries for 2 straight seasons, plus playoff games. Him exceeding his stats from his first 300 carry season is already an anomaly in the decline trend.

Signs point towards a drop-off but I don't think the decline would be significant like OJ or Jamal Lewis' seasons. With the continuing emergence of AJ Brown and Lewan's return, Henry would probably have a lot less carries but better running lanes.

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Henry has been heavily utilized the last couple seasons, but he also wasn't heavily utilized his first few (to the detriment of the Titans). And Henry wasn't used heavily in college until his 3rd season. So the wear and tear for Henry is a lot lower compared to many other RB's at his age. And he is also unique with his size in that he doesn't take as many hits. He is actually delivering the hits.

Henry is truly a fun and unique RB to watch. Curious to see how his entire career plays out. I think he has a number of more great seasons.

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Derrick Henry magically disappeared in a must win game for Tennessee, just like he did in week 16 for my fake championship... he also  disappeared in week 13 in a must win game. 

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On 1/7/2021 at 4:52 PM, Stonej14 said:

 

 

 

what good does all that do ya when we’re looking to next year? Not like Alvin can bring all those 2017 stats with him to 2021? And I’ve already pointed out that Henry has outscored kamara since becoming the starter in week 13 of 2018. Kamara doesn’t outscore him until you take away week 17s for some reason and make it full PPR scoring. 

 

People said that coming into this year.  And guess what?  He scored more points.  Most people don't play 17 week playoffs, and most people play PPR.  Your 'since week 13 of 2018' line is absolutely hilarious.  Like I I said, he had more carries week 3 of that year but that doesn't fit your narrative which you like to move the goalposts for.

 

👍

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4 minutes ago, AlvinKamarasCleats said:

 

People said that coming into this year.  And guess what?  He scored more points.  Most people don't play 17 week playoffs, and most people play PPR.  Your 'since week 13 of 2018' line is absolutely hilarious.  Like I I said, he had more carries week 3 of that year but that doesn't fit your narrative which you like to move the goalposts for.

 

👍

But who are you really 

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Rest up big fella, time to lead the team to the promised land again next year when you get Taylor Lewan back and a better defense.

 

Not much you can do when they got 8 and 9 men in the box, that's when the QB needs to make a play.

 

Hats off to a HOF caliber season.

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Trolls out in full force I see 😂.

I will say, when the oline can't get him space to get going he looks slowwww. Obviously his forte isn't creating behind the line of scrimmage like some of the other elite guys, it's getting to the second level and wrecking dudes. The OL deserves alot of credit for getting him there so he can embarrass LBs and safeties.

Looked liked the year 1 ,year  2 Henry tonight. Great job up front by Baltimore

 

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Every player has down games, Barry put up -1 on 13 carries against GB after he put up nearly 1,900 yards that year.

Hell of a season and he's one of the most fun players to watch (as is Kamara).

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