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James Paxton 2020 Outlook


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He’s ranked #226 on Yahoo! He’s an absolute steal at that price. 

Prisoners of the moment.

Here I was thinking I got him as a steal on draft day... 😪

His 2020 Outlook isn't too good in other words.

Rotoworld blurb:

Quote

James Paxton underwent a microscopic lumbar discectomy on Wednesday and is expected to be sidelined 3-4 months.

The surgery was necessary to remove a peridiscal cyst. This news obviously comes with terrible timing given that Yankees pitchers and catchers are due to report to spring training next week. Paxton, who has battled injuries throughout his career, is likely to miss a large chunk of the first half of the 2020 regular season. Jordan Montgomery, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Mike King will be in the running for the final spot in the Yankees' Opening Day rotation.

Source: Yankees PR on Twitter                      Feb 5, 2020, 3:54 PM ET

 

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Gotta assume it is 3-4 months and then hopefully he can start his ST program and build up. I would expect around the All-Star break for a return...and that might be optimistic with how Pax can develop issues along the way. Bummer.

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42 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Should plummet his ADP in redraft. At some point it's fine for an IL stash but I hate drafting guys who start the year injured. Waiting on a guy to get healthy and suffer a setback or suck is a lot of not fun.

 

Agreed.

 

Flashbacks of owning Jimmy Nelson. 

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3 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Gotta assume it is 3-4 months and then hopefully he can start his ST program and build up. I would expect around the All-Star break for a return...and that might be optimistic with how Pax can develop issues along the way. Bummer.

"approximate timeline to return to Major League action is 3-4 months."  

May return wouldn't be so bad and worth a stash.  If it goes until June that would be terrible.

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You gotta love the way Paxton handled this.

Pitchers and catchers were due to report on February 13, 2020 for the Yankees.  After enjoying his entire offseason, he has this surgery on February 5, 2020, basically a week before he was due to report (probably would have had to start packing or handle logistical issues over the next week, so this basically maximizes the amount of time he misses from Yankees-related obligations).  

This is Paxton's last year under team control.  He'll be a UFA after this season.  By basically waiting until the last possible second -- what, you're going to tell me he didn't know he probably needed surgery until a week before Spring Training??-- he accomplishes the following:

1.)Was able to enjoy his entire offseason without needing to undergo surgery or rehab from it

2.)Gets to rehabilitate on company time (Shaq would love this)

3.)Makes it less likely that the Yankees extend the qualifying offer (a major coup)

4.)He'll save the wear and tear on his arm going into his UFA, and he'll still have a month or two to show he's healthy when he comes back.

5.)He'll still get his full salary for 2020.

I mean, this was brilliantly handled from Paxton's end.  I know Paxton had some arbitration kerfuffles with the Yankees, so he probably doesn't feel he owes them much, but he REALLY shafted the franchise with his timing. 

This amount of magnificent selfishness (I don't begrudge him, it's a business) probably meant someone smart was whispering in his ear.  I wonder who his agent is ...*Overlord checks sportrac.com* ... oh look, it's SCOTT BORAS!!!

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21 minutes ago, Overlord said:

You gotta love the way Paxton handled this.

 

Every report I've read about the surgery suggests that the Yankees front office was in the loop on this.  There is no merit whatsoever to this conspiracy theorizing that Paxton would be out there scheming to wait until the last possible minute to screw the team and protect himself for his next contract.

He tried to avoid surgery on his doctor's advice, and it didn't work out.  These are difficult decisions with a lot of gray areas.  Sometimes the dice don't roll your way.

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Only worth drafting as a last round pick or custom league with high IL spots.

Yeah, if you only have one IL spot I don't see how you can possibly draft this guy. Injuries happen to healthy players you draft. Add in potential setbacks and this screams stay away. We're looking sometime in May in the best case scenario.

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11 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Every report I've read about the surgery suggests that the Yankees front office was in the loop on this.  There is no merit whatsoever to this conspiracy theorizing that Paxton would be out there scheming to wait until the last possible minute to screw the team and protect himself for his next contract.

He tried to avoid surgery on his doctor's advice, and it didn't work out.  These are difficult decisions with a lot of gray areas.  Sometimes the dice don't roll your way.

I agree. In a contract year you want that big year on your resume so you LOWER your value by not playing.  This is the worst thing that could happen to him.

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3 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I agree. In a contract year you want that big year on your resume so you LOWER your value by not playing.  This is the worst thing that could happen to him.

 

If this was the "worst" thing that could happen to him Bora$ wouldn't have had him do it.

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I'll take Paxton at the MAJOR discount that we will likely see. He was one of my targets this year, and now I might be able to get him for virtually nothing. Stash him for a couple of months and reap the rewards? Yes. 

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2 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

why didnt he do this in november?

 

He was advised by his doctor to try to rest and rehab instead.  It didn't work.  Sometimes the right medical plan doesn't yield the desired results.

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I have 3 IL slots and will play along for a little bit. If we get to mid-May and he hasn't picked up a baseball yet then we'll probably know it's a lost season. Given his track record of general health problems (and this seems much more serious), he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who will beat any provided timetable.

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Realistically Yankees should cruise to a division title and only need Pax for the playoffs.....for fantasy - tough to hold a guy who wont contribute for a long stretch as there is always risk for a set back and you get nothing the entire season....definitely a late round flyer. 

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