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James Paxton 2020 Outlook


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12 hours ago, cs3 said:

You talking about Paxton or baseball?

 

I think on February 6 this was a legitimate question as to Paxton. And no I’m not THAT clairvoyant as to the virus. 

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He’s ranked #226 on Yahoo! He’s an absolute steal at that price. 

Prisoners of the moment.

Here I was thinking I got him as a steal on draft day... 😪

On 3/12/2020 at 4:35 AM, Dirty Little Birdie said:

just for reference I was able to get him with pick #199 in my draft last night. 

 

I drafted Sat and took Paxton at 164, right after Sean Manea & Robbie Ray and just before German Marquez & Kenta Maeda.

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7 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Throwing 91 today. 🤨 

Lack of ramp up or injury?

He looked good, was getting ahead of hitter but couldn't put any away. Secondary pitches just were not there and he had trouble throwing them for strikes making hitters sit on his hard stuff (which as you noted wasn't very hard). 

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I watched his start.

He seemed to be pitching well, credit to the nationals batters for having some really good at bats in this one. Victor Robles had a 10+ pitch at bat. 

Paxton gave up a couple of really hard hit balls, but other than that it was a lot of cheap singles and then an untimely walk. 

 

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11 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

I watched his start.

He seemed to be pitching well, credit to the nationals batters for having some really good at bats in this one. Victor Robles had a 10+ pitch at bat. 

Paxton gave up a couple of really hard hit balls, but other than that it was a lot of cheap singles and then an untimely walk. 

 

To add to this post, Paxton was throwing a lot of first pitch strikes and was getting ahead of nearly every batter he faced. He got really tired in his 2nd inning though as the pitches started piling up. I think this has more to do with early season fatigue/lack of build up than some fatal flaw or health issue though. 

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4 hours ago, Deke said:

Fastball averaging like 91 mph. Not missing bats. Control is suspect. Pitches home games in Yankee stadium. Probably will be dropping 

 

You making your decision based strictly on this season performance ? 10 days in baseball (especially for a starting pitcher is nothing). 

 

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8 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

You making your decision based strictly on this season performance ? 10 days in baseball (especially for a starting pitcher is nothing). 

 

 

In a 162 game season there is no way I am dropping him.  But in a short season, time is of the essence. He has an obvious injury history which makes me think a DL stint could be on the horizon.  In daily leagues where you could use a valuable roster spot to stream MR etc., I'm thinking about cutting him loose.

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7 hours ago, 33legend said:

 

In a 162 game season there is no way I am dropping him.  But in a short season, time is of the essence. He has an obvious injury history which makes me think a DL stint could be on the horizon.  In daily leagues where you could use a valuable roster spot to stream MR etc., I'm thinking about cutting him loose.

 

Who has Paxton's combination of K rate and ability to avoid allowing baserunners though? Very few pitchers do. 

I would hold. 

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1 hour ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Who has Paxton's combination of K rate and ability to avoid allowing baserunners though? Very few pitchers do. 

I would hold. 

 

Paxton throwing 97?  Very few.  Paxton throwing 91?  Mostly everyone.

Velo is pretty predictive and stable after 3 starts.  If he's laboring around 91 again next start, then that's really worrisome.

We don't really have time to wait through a DL stint (real or phantom) while he fixes his mechanics.

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5 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Paxton throwing 97?  Very few.  Paxton throwing 91?  Mostly everyone.

Velo is pretty predictive and stable after 3 starts.  If he's laboring around 91 again next start, then that's really worrisome.

We don't really have time to wait through a DL stint (real or phantom) while he fixes his mechanics.

 

Isn't it rather normal for pitchers to have their worst velocity in "April" though? And there's no word of any DL stint. All I'm saying is that very few pitchers have Paxton's track record. I would give him 1-2 more starts before seriously considering a drop. There simply isn't anything on the waiver wire of equivalent value. 

 

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Just now, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Isn't it rather normal for pitchers to have their worst velocity in April though? And there's no word of any DL stint. All I'm saying is that very few pitchers have Paxton's track record. I would give him 1-2 more starts before seriously considering a drop. There simply isn't anything on the waiver wire with anywhere near Paxton's pitching ability.

 

Yes, but 6 MPH?  That's a pretty drastic drop.  And I think velo mostly stabilizes after about 3 starts.

I don't think we're disagreeing here.  I'm not dropping him today.  I'll give him one more start then reevaluate.  Might be droppable at that point.

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31 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Anybody watching his outing? The numbers are looking good today vs TB hoping for some kind of scouting report. Thanks.

 

yes.  check game thread for my analysis

fastball not quite the 95-97 when hes really dealing, its more like 93.  but his slider/curve are looking excellent.  

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3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

yes.  check game thread for my analysis

fastball not quite the 95-97 when hes really dealing, its more like 93.  but his slider/curve are looking excellent.  

He was good today...Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde as there is no in between with him.  Boone left him in too long and gave the game away ultimately, but their offense has been sputtering most of this week and is the real culprit.  Hopefully Paxton can replicate this the rest of the way, though I am not getting my hopes up.

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1 minute ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Why are people so skeptical of Paxton? When he's not injured he's producing strikeouts and avoiding baserunners as good as anybody in the game. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2017.

Because he is streaky as can be and goes into funks where he just sucks.  And then gets good for awhile...then gets hurt usually.

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53 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Why are people so skeptical of Paxton? When he's not injured he's producing strikeouts and avoiding baserunners as good as anybody in the game. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2017.


you watch his first 2 starts? You see his fb velocity?

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