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Ronald Acuna 2020 Outlook


charger_ss24
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I was shocked to see there’s not a thread yet on, arguably, the best player in baseball. Guess it goes without saying that he will put up a monstrous stat line, but he has a goal set on a 50-50 season.

https://www.mlb.com/news/ronald-acuna-wants-mlb-s-first-50-50-season
 

One question is, can he do it? Another question is, how many 40-40 season will he tally in pursuit of this lofty goal?😳

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I have him ahead of Trout if I get lucky enough to get the 1st pick. I still think in a snake draft the best position is the 3rd spot and get whoever falls to you. In an OBP league probably can have the 4 spot and be fine with Bellinger included.

Trout just doesn't have the SB upside anymore. Only 13 attempts in 134 games last year. Trout can beat Acuna in HR, RBI, and AVG, but still be less valuable if Acuna has 30 more SB than him.

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4 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

I have him ahead of Trout if I get lucky enough to get the 1st pick. I still think in a snake draft the best position is the 3rd spot and get whoever falls to you. In an OBP league probably can have the 4 spot and be fine with Bellinger included.

Trout just doesn't have the SB upside anymore. Only 13 attempts in 134 games last year. Trout can beat Acuna in HR, RBI, and AVG, but still be less valuable if Acuna has 30 more SB than him.

trout 156 game pace (same gp as acuna) 52 hrs, 128 runs, 121 rbi, 13 sb, 291

per game trout was actually more valuable than acuna if baseballmonster.com holds any accuracy.

Edited by colepenhagen
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31 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

trout 156 game pace (same gp as acuna) 52 hrs, 128 runs, 121 rbi, 13 sb, 291

per game trout was actually more valuable than acuna if baseballmonster.com holds any accuracy.

 

Depends on your format. SB are valuable. Plus, Trout hasn't played a full season since 2016.

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4 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

 

 

Again. Depends on your format. Trout will likely have Acuna beat in HR, RBI and AVG. But Acuna dwarfs him in SB and in today's landscape where everyone hits hrs, SBs are extremely valuable.  Plus, Trout hasn't played a full season since 2016. The poster you copied said he would prefer Acuna and your stance seems to be the opposite claiming Trout is better per game. While MAYBE true (depending on your format), preferring Acuna can still make sense because of Trout not able to play a full season for the past 3 seasons.

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5 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Again. Depends on your format. Trout will likely have Acuna beat in HR, RBI and AVG. But Acuna dwarfs him in SB and in today's landscape where everyone hits hrs, SBs are extremely valuable.  Plus, Trout hasn't played a full season since 2016. The poster you copied said he would prefer Acuna and your stance seems to be the opposite claiming Trout is better per game. While MAYBE true (depending on your format), preferring Acuna can still make sense because of Trout not able to play a full season for the past 3 seasons.

my post was directed towards this... "Trout can beat Acuna in HR, RBI, and AVG, but still be less valuable if Acuna has 30 more SB than him." and like i said IF baseball monster holds any accuracy trouts per game numbers were more valuable than acuna. and thats factoring in acuna 41 sb vs trouts 156 game pace of 13sb. (yelich killed them both last year in per game. basically trout with 19 more sb.)

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

trout 156 game pace (same gp as acuna) 52 hrs, 128 runs, 121 rbi, 13 sb, 291

per game trout was actually more valuable than acuna if baseballmonster.com holds any accuracy.

 

Trout (156 game pace): 52 HR / 128 R / 121 RBI / 13 SB / .291 AVG

Acuna Jr. (full year): 41 HR / 127 R / 101 RBI / 37 SB / .280 AVG

 

So essentially giving Trout 10 HR, 20 RBI, 10 points in average, then Acuna Jr. 25 SB. I'd prefer Acuna Jr. with the SB. This isn't an easy choice and you could go either way. But then you can also factor in the injury history which also points to Acuna Jr.

Yelich really deserves to be in the conversation too as he outperformed both of them on a per game basis, although there's less of a track record.

Bottom line, hope to get the 3rd pick and take whoever drops to you. Same thinking with auction drafts.

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43 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Trout (156 game pace): 52 HR / 128 R / 121 RBI / 13 SB / .291 AVG

Acuna Jr. (full year): 41 HR / 127 R / 101 RBI / 37 SB / .280 AVG

 

So essentially giving Trout 10 HR, 20 RBI, 10 points in average, then Acuna Jr. 25 SB. I'd prefer Acuna Jr. with the SB. This isn't an easy choice and you could go either way. But then you can also factor in the injury history which also points to Acuna Jr.

Yelich really deserves to be in the conversation too as he outperformed both of them on a per game basis, although there's less of a track record.

Bottom line, hope to get the 3rd pick and take whoever drops to you. Same thinking with auction drafts.

also have to factor in trout and yelich floor/track record. like you said top 3 is money. yelich does have the highest ceiling as hes the most likely to  hit 320-330

so that extra 30-40 pts on avg plus the 40/30 upside. but hes coming off serious inj. i would take yelich if it wasnt for the knee cap. still might.

as for auction you might want to jump on the first one nominated as others are probably thinking the same thing and the last guy nominated in that tier will go over the first two that are nominated.

Edited by colepenhagen
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5 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

also have to factor in trout and yelich floor/track record. like you said top 3 is money. yelich does have the highest ceiling as hes the most likely to  hit 320-330

so that extra 30-40 pts on avg plus the 40/30 upside. but hes coming off serious inj. i would take yelich if it wasnt for the knee cap. still might.

as for auction you might want to jump on the first one nominated as others are probably thinking the same thing and the last guy nominated in that tier will go over the first two that are nominated.

 

Yes auction will probably be best way to take advantage.

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5 minutes ago, charger_ss24 said:

Lol...you can’t go wrong with one of the other.🤷🏻‍♂️

thats what people thought with altuve v trout.  howd that worked out? same with cmc vs barkley in fantasy football. obviously hindsight 20/20 but there should be more effort and thought put into who goes 1.1 imo.

Edited by colepenhagen
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2 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

also have to factor in trout and yelich floor/track record. like you said top 3 is money. yelich does have the highest ceiling as hes the most likely to  hit 320-330

so that extra 30-40 pts on avg plus the 40/30 upside. but hes coming off serious inj. i would take yelich if it wasnt for the knee cap. still might.

as for auction you might want to jump on the first one nominated as others are probably thinking the same thing and the last guy nominated in that tier will go over the first two that are nominated.

 

If we are talking about things to factor in then I think you should be focusing on what Acuna did out of the leadoff spot considering he thrived there and will lead off in 2020.

 

Batting 1st: 118 games, 106 Runs, 34 HR, 78 RBIs, 34 SB

 

That compares just fine with Trout and Yelich on a "per game" basis.

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On 2/12/2020 at 5:32 PM, charger_ss24 said:

I was shocked to see there’s not a thread yet on, arguably, the best player in baseball. Guess it goes without saying that he will put up a monstrous stat line, but he has a goal set on a 50-50 season.

https://www.mlb.com/news/ronald-acuna-wants-mlb-s-first-50-50-season
 

One question is, can he do it? Another question is, how many 40-40 season will he tally in pursuit of this lofty goal?😳

 

There's no thread on him because everyone knows how great he is.  It wouldn't surprise me if his SBs decline a little bit like Trout's did after his first two years, but everything else from last year should be repeatable or even maybe get a little better.  Personally I'd take Acuna over Yelich but not over Trout.  Trout has the most proven track record of being elite year after year.

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23 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

thats what people thought with altuve v trout.  howd that worked out? same with cmc vs barkley in fantasy football. obviously hindsight 20/20 but there should be more effort and thought put into who goes 1.1 imo.


who in the world was arguing for altuve over trout 

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Acuna is my number 1 this season. I like Trout and Yelich but they both missed some games. Acuna is younger which means less likely to get hurt. More importantly Acuna gets the most SB which are a premium these days. One other thing with Acuna is hes only 22 he hasnt hit his ceiling yet, put him at leadoff for a full season and hes going to destroy. 

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Only player I remember getting any legit steam for the 1.1 over trout was peak kershaw.  You had some people Here and there take Betts, altuve, Miggy but I think they were outliers.  
 

acuna vs trout is legit.  Standard 5x5 I take Acuna but other formats that water down steals, points leagues or obp I take trout.  Tough to go wrong with either.

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4 hours ago, TonyTheTigersFan said:

 

There's no thread on him because everyone knows how great he is.  It wouldn't surprise me if his SBs decline a little bit like Trout's did after his first two years, but everything else from last year should be repeatable or even maybe get a little better.  Personally I'd take Acuna over Yelich but not over Trout.  Trout has the most proven track record of being elite year after year.

 

Where did Trout bat in the order after his first two years? 3rd?

 

Acuna batting 1st makes it significantly more likely he steals more than he would batting 3rd.

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55 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Where did Trout bat in the order after his first two years? 3rd?

 

Acuna batting 1st makes it significantly more likely he steals more than he would batting 3rd.

Yeah. Since you mentioned that:

Angels manager Joe Maddon said Thursday that he hasn't ruled out deploying Trout (foot) as the club's leadoff hitter this season, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. "It's in the playbook," Maddon said, though he noted that he yet to decide on lineup spots for any of his hitters at this point. (2/13/2020)

 

There was a near 130 point difference in Trouts Slug% over Acuna and 200 point difference in OPS. Trout likely got unlucky in terms of BA last year too. His Base running scores are still exceptional despite not stealing as often. Trout batting first makes it significantly more likely he steals then he would batting 3rd. Just like you said.

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