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Deebo Samuel 2020 Outlook


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On 6/19/2020 at 5:40 PM, Rush2112 said:

Aiyuk will be the lead dog for SF in the WR pass game this year 

No he won’t. Rookie WRs have it tough in the NFL and Samuel isn’t going to miss the entire season. 

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You're a terrible googler.

KIttle, Aiyuk, Deebo, and only back  up running backs.....against the desperate and broken Eagles.

Deebo Samuel got 25 snaps in his first game of the season. He posted three catches for 35 yards and one rush for 10 yards. Samuel looked good in his limited work, and his production on fewer than half

39 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

No he won’t. Rookie WRs have it tough in the NFL and Samuel isn’t going to miss the entire season. 

Rookies do not have that tough a time. Case in point Deebo Samuel last year.

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10 hours ago, beotos said:

Rookies do not have that tough a time. Case in point Deebo Samuel last year.

 

Terry McLaurin is another example ,  AJ Brown , DK Metcalf . But these guys are the outliers not necessarily the norm ... it's well documented that rookie WR's have a steep learning curve. Aiyuk is no Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb ... on a run first offense , with Deebo returning sometime in the season. 

Source: Pro Football Reference  

There have been 21 rookies to post 900+ receiving yards since 2000 and most of them have gone on to have really good NFL careers:
 

                              Year           Age     Draft        Team          Games     Targets   Recs                                       Yards          Y/R           TD                  Catch%     

1 Anquan Boldin 2003 23 2-54 ARI NFL 16 16 165 101 1377 13.63 8 86.1 61.2% 8.35
2 Odell Beckham Jr. 2014 22 1-12 NYG NFL 12 11 130 91 1305 14.34 12 108.8 70.0% 10.04
3 Michael Clayton 2004 22 1-15 TAM NFL 16 13 122 80 1193 14.91 7 74.6 65.6% 9.78
4 Michael Thomas 2016 23 2-47 NOR NFL 15 12 121 92 1137 12.36 9 75.8 76.0% 9.40
5 Amari Cooper 2015 21 1-4 OAK NFL 16 15 130 72 1070 14.86 6 66.9 55.4% 8.23
6 A.J. Green 2011 23 1-4 CIN NFL 15 15 115 65 1057 16.26 7 70.5 56.5% 9.19
7 A.J. Brown 2019 22 2-51 TEN NFL 16 11 84 52 1051 20.21 8 65.7 61.9% 12.51
8 Mike Evans 2014 21 1-7 TAM NFL 15 15 122 68 1051 15.46 12 70.1 55.7% 8.61
9 Keenan Allen 2013 21 3-76 SDG NFL 15 14 105 71 1046 14.73 8 69.7 67.6% 9.96
10 Marques Colston 2006 23 7-252 NOR NFL 14 12 115 70 1038 14.83 8 74.1 60.9% 9.03
11 Kelvin Benjamin 2014 23 1-28 CAR NFL 16 15 145 73 1008 13.81 9 63.0 50.3% 6.95
12 Dwayne Bowe 2007 23 1-23 KAN NFL 16 15 116 70 995 14.21 5 62.2 60.3% 8.58
13 Sammy Watkins 2014 21 1-4 BUF NFL 16 16 128 65 982 15.11 6 61.4 50.8% 7.67
14 Eddie Royal 2008 22 2-42 DEN NFL 15 15 129 91 980 10.77 5 65.3 70.5% 7.60
15 Andre Johnson  2003 22 1-3 HOU NFL 16 16 119 66 976 14.79 4 61.0 55.5% 8.20
16 Mike Williams 2010 23 4-101 TAM NFL 16 16 129 65 964 14.83 11 60.3 50.4% 7.47
17 Julio Jones 2011 22 1-6 ATL NFL 13 13 95 54 959 17.76 8 73.8 56.8% 10.09
18 Terry McLaurin  2019 24 3-76 WAS NFL 14 14 93 58 919 15.84 7 65.6 62.4% 9.88
19 JuJu Smith-Schuster 2017 21 2-62 PIT NFL 14 7 79 58 917 15.81 7 65.5 73.4% 11.61
20 DeSean Jackson 2008 22 2-49 PHI NFL 16 15 120 62 912 14.71 2 57.0 51.7% 7.60
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt
21 D.K. Metcalf 2019 22 2-64 SEA NFL 16 15 100 58 900 15.52 7 56.3 58.0% 9.00
Edited by RunCMC
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13 hours ago, beotos said:

Rookies do not have that tough a time. Case in point Deebo Samuel last year.

While in general I agree not all rookies struggle, this year I am downgrading all rookies vis-a-vis veterans, with Covid ravaging minicamps and potentiallly training camp and preseason.  Rookies are missing valuable time needed to acclimate.

Edited by El_Chingon
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3 minutes ago, CKM said:

Any more updates on him? Expecting to miss a few games?

 

  • 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan said WR Deebo Samuel (foot) has a chance of playing in the 49ers' Week 1 game against Arizona, though he's "not counting on it." 

    The Niners presumed No. 1 wideout is still recovering from June foot surgery. “Deebo’s going to do anything he can to be in shape, but it’s hard to be in football shape until you can play football,” Shanahan said. “So how many practices can we get him in here before Arizona? That’s going to all go into play, so I’m hoping for Week 1. But not sure yet." Brandon Aiyuk, available in the 12th round of fantasy drafts, could enter the season as the team's No. 1 receiver. 

    RELATED: 
    SOURCE: NBC Sports
    Aug 15, 2020, 5:18 PM ET
     
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  • 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed that Deebo Samuel (foot) will not practice this week.

    Shanahan is "hopeful" that Samuel will be ready for Week 1 but is far from committing to that being the case. Samuel will need to return to the practice field before suiting up, so it's getting more and more likely that Samuel misses some game time. Jones fractures are particularly tough for a receiver who specializes in yards after the catch, making Samuel a risky mid-round selection. Helping Samuel's case, however, is the fact that the 49ers receivers continue to drop like flies. First-round rookie Brandon Aiyuk is not practicing due to a "mild" hamstring injury that also makes him week to week and Jalen Hurd is out for the year. These injuries make George Kittle a quality second-round selection in fantasy drafts. Kendrick Bourne would likely be the de-facto No. 1 receiver if Aiyuk and Samuel are out for Week 1.

    SOURCE: 49ers.com
    Aug 25, 2020, 8:11 PM ET
     
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Deebo is within range for return to play from his procedure that he underwent mid-June:

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1071100715603983

(note: paper from 2017)

Quote

Between 2004 and 2014, 25 consecutive NFL players who underwent acute Jones fracture fixation by a single surgeon were reviewed. RTP was defined as the ability to play in a single regular-season NFL game after surgery. At the time of surgery, average age for all patients was 24.0 years and BMI 31.0.

Return to play (RTP) was 100% for all players and 80% were still playing at time of publication. Three patients (12.0%) refractured and required revision surgery. Time until RTP was influenced by other variables and difficult to measure because many surgeries were performed early in the offseason. All 9 players who underwent surgery between July and October, and were therefore eligible to return to play in the same season, had an average RTP of 8.7 weeks (range 5.9-13.6).

We observed that these injuries were more likely to occur in the first 3 seasons of play and in wide receivers, linebackers, and tight ends. This at-risk subset of players may benefit from improved preventative measures.

So of note:

1) 10 weeks is not an unreasonable timeframe for returning to practice and he probably remains on-track to play week 1
2) The re-fracture rate is reasonable for wide receivers but this is obviously difficult to predict
3) If he re-fractures it, he is 100% done for the year. These cannot be conservatively managed.

Bake that into your ADP - foot should be ok for week 1, but if he inverts it again or gets it stepped on, he is in grave danger of being a washout.

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What are our expectations with Deebo this year?

He is the WR1 that is the second passing target (Kittle being #1) on a run heavy offense.

Highly doubt he catches more than 100 passes, and will likely see maybe around that in targets. 
 

Is a 79/875/4 stat line reasonable here?

I think that is a very conservative stat line, so let’s run with it considering room for exceeding that. 

That’s good for 151 .5 ppr points, which would be about the WR30ish in 2019.

His current ADP is 8.05 and the WR36. So, very possible he exceeds that.

A solid WR3 with the upside of a WR2 imo, in round 8. Decent value. 

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20 minutes ago, next big thing cp84 said:

What are our expectations with Deebo this year?

He is the WR1 that is the second passing target (Kittle being #1) on a run heavy offense.

Highly doubt he catches more than 100 passes, and will likely see maybe around that in targets. 
 

Is a 79/875/4 stat line reasonable here?

I think that is a very conservative stat line, so let’s run with it considering room for exceeding that. 

That’s good for 151 .5 ppr points, which would be about the WR30ish in 2019.

His current ADP is 8.05 and the WR36. So, very possible he exceeds that.

A solid WR3 with the upside of a WR2 imo, in round 8. Decent value. 

 

+ 200yd/2-4 td  on jet sweeps

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14 hours ago, next big thing cp84 said:

What are our expectations with Deebo this year?

He is the WR1 that is the second passing target (Kittle being #1) on a run heavy offense.

Highly doubt he catches more than 100 passes, and will likely see maybe around that in targets. 
 

Is a 79/875/4 stat line reasonable here?

I think that is a very conservative stat line, so let’s run with it considering room for exceeding that. 

That’s good for 151 .5 ppr points, which would be about the WR30ish in 2019.

His current ADP is 8.05 and the WR36. So, very possible he exceeds that.

A solid WR3 with the upside of a WR2 imo, in round 8. Decent value. 


I’m weary of his injury. Jones fractures are no joke, especially for a WR.

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On 6/20/2020 at 11:29 PM, Gohawks said:

No he won’t. Rookie WRs have it tough in the NFL and Samuel isn’t going to miss the entire season. 

 

Those days are over. The new rules have taken the advantage NFL veteran DBs had over rookie WRs away. 

Also why many rookie QBs have such seamless transitions. Peyton Manning wouldn't have the learning curved he had if he were a rookie this year.

Edited by this guy right here
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19 minutes ago, ThunderDan said:

 

A season ending re-injury. Do not take jones fractures lightly. 

Certainly possible, but it’s not like you are spending a high pick on him. Grab him in round 9-10 if he’s there and if he hits you get viable WR to use. If he re-injures the foot and is out then it’s just another late pick that does not pan out. 

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1 hour ago, ralphg13 said:

Certainly possible, but it’s not like you are spending a high pick on him. Grab him in round 9-10 if he’s there and if he hits you get viable WR to use. If he re-injures the foot and is out then it’s just another late pick that does not pan out. 

Pretty much how it's going in drafts.  It's what I did in mine.  He was there in the 9th or 10th and the potential that he brings was greater than anyone else I was looking at on the player list 

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Picked him up off waivers last night. Been sitting there for 2 weeks since someone dropped him & everyone else forgot about him. He would’ve been a 4th-5th rounder without the injury. Worth the shot, though I honestly expect re-injury by Week 4. Seems like this type of fracture needs longer than the 10-12 weeks doctors recommend because of the issues most guys have coming back from it. Hope I’m wrong 🤞

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