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Deebo Samuel 2020 Outlook


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You're a terrible googler.

KIttle, Aiyuk, Deebo, and only back  up running backs.....against the desperate and broken Eagles.

Deebo Samuel got 25 snaps in his first game of the season. He posted three catches for 35 yards and one rush for 10 yards. Samuel looked good in his limited work, and his production on fewer than half

1 hour ago, MingusDew said:

I'm honestly not that worried about Aiyuk when he comes back. Aiyuk will eat but Deebo is the big dog in this offense and they are basically designing the game plan around him at this point. 

I think that is a stretch.... Shanahan is notorious for trying to target a certain area of player on defense and exploit their weakness time and time again. The fact that Deebo was "showcased" yesterday does not mean it will always be the trend. Rams have a good D and were stopping the run. If Shanahan could run the ball 70 times against Buffalo he will. 

I am sure the Niners loved having Deebo back, he definitely sets the tone for that team and brings with him a level of physicality that very few players in the league can match.

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2 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

I think that is a stretch.... Shanahan is notorious for trying to target a certain area of player on defense and exploit their weakness time and time again. The fact that Deebo was "showcased" yesterday does not mean it will always be the trend. Rams have a good D and were stopping the run. If Shanahan could run the ball 70 times against Buffalo he will. 

I am sure the Niners loved having Deebo back, he definitely sets the tone for that team and brings with him a level of physicality that very few players in the league can match.

 

Fair enough, and I'm sure that Mostert will feature prominently against lower-tier run defenses.

That said, Deebo is the most skilled pass-catcher on this team with Kittle sidelined. Even if he's not the focal point like he was last night he's going to be he No.1 receiving option, Aiyuk or no.

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16 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

 

Fair enough, and I'm sure that Mostert will feature prominently against lower-tier run defenses.

That said, Deebo is the most skilled pass-catcher on this team with Kittle sidelined. Even if he's not the focal point like he was last night he's going to be he No.1 receiving option, Aiyuk or no.


Eh, Aiyuk was getting the same treatment when Deebo was out, and he’s also quite talented.  Even Richie James got this treatment the game where everyone missed.

 

I think Deebo will have the most value of the pass-catchers, but to dismiss the notion that Aiyuk will significantly cut into his value is naive IMO.

 

On the plus side, I think Deebo will have a nice floor because of his talent and Shanahan’s creativity, but I’m not expecting double-digit targets when Aiyuk comes back.

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6 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:


Eh, Aiyuk was getting the same treatment when Deebo was out, and he’s also quite talented.  Even Richie James got this treatment the game where everyone missed.

 

I think Deebo will have the most value of the pass-catchers, but to dismiss the notion that Aiyuk will significantly cut into his value is naive IMO.

 

On the plus side, I think Deebo will have a nice floor because of his talent and Shanahan’s creativity, but I’m not expecting double-digit targets when Aiyuk comes back.

And the fact that the Niners might not even throw it 10 times a game unless they are forced to. The running game has not been what it was down the stretch last season but I am sure the goal is to get the running game going and run the ball as much as humanly possible. I love Deebo as a player and in this offense, the QB play just really limits the entire passing game and receivers. 

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Posted this in the Aiyuk Thread and figured it was relevant in the Deebo thread:

As the owner of both and a 49er fan, Without Kittle (True #1), I would say that Deebo is the 1A, and Aiyuk the 1B.  I think Deebo has the safer floor because most of his catches are short to intermediate passes with lots of Yac after.  He also gets 3-5 carries/runs.  Though BA might not get as many targets with Deebo in the line-up, the quality will likely be better which can lead the way to intermediate routes that can be taken for long gains (also good at YAC).  Another thing to note is that the niners O-line is built to stretch run the ball.  When SF is down big and has to abandon the run, the o-line tends to give way to the pass rush leaving SF's non mobile QBs with very little time to get rid of the ball.  Either way, I think both guys are solid with Deebo being a WR2 and Aiyuk a WR3/Flex.

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1 hour ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

And the fact that the Niners might not even throw it 10 times a game unless they are forced to. The running game has not been what it was down the stretch last season but I am sure the goal is to get the running game going and run the ball as much as humanly possible. I love Deebo as a player and in this offense, the QB play just really limits the entire passing game and receivers. 

 

I agree with you in theory but, unfortunately, I don't think gameflow will allow them to run the ball as much as they normally would. I don't think an emphasis on the running game should be a major concern. 

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https://charts-cdn-b.nextgenstats.nfl.com/static-charts/900/route-chart_SAM636097_2020-REG-12_1606698335842.jpeg


Fwiw 7 of his 11 targets were behind the line of scrimmage this week. In week 6 when he went 6/66/1 ALL of his catches were behind the line of scrimmage. In week7 only 4 of his 5 catches were at or behind the line of scrimmage. He’s absolutely ridiculous with the ball in his hands and after the catch (and was in college too).

 

However, because of this I feel you’ll get a bit of volatility as teams will try to stop this.  Makes me feel like aiyuk is viewed as their prototypical WR and deebo is gadgety and an extension of their heavy run game. It makes me wonder about his production down the stretch. Just keep in mind it’s not your typical way WR1 get their production and wanted to put it out there.

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57 minutes ago, Wytchclt55 said:

https://charts-cdn-b.nextgenstats.nfl.com/static-charts/900/route-chart_SAM636097_2020-REG-12_1606698335842.jpeg


Fwiw 7 of his 11 targets were behind the line of scrimmage this week. In week 6 when he went 6/66/1 ALL of his catches were behind the line of scrimmage. In week7 only 4 of his 5 catches were at or behind the line of scrimmage. He’s absolutely ridiculous with the ball in his hands and after the catch (and was in college too).

 

However, because of this I feel you’ll get a bit of volatility as teams will try to stop this.  Makes me feel like aiyuk is viewed as their prototypical WR and deebo is gadgety and an extension of their heavy run game. It makes me wonder about his production down the stretch. Just keep in mind it’s not your typical way WR1 get their production and wanted to put it out there.

Those 4 catches downfield were very impressive. One ended up essentially winning the game for San Fran...

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7 hours ago, Wytchclt55 said:

https://charts-cdn-b.nextgenstats.nfl.com/static-charts/900/route-chart_SAM636097_2020-REG-12_1606698335842.jpeg


Fwiw 7 of his 11 targets were behind the line of scrimmage this week. In week 6 when he went 6/66/1 ALL of his catches were behind the line of scrimmage. In week7 only 4 of his 5 catches were at or behind the line of scrimmage. He’s absolutely ridiculous with the ball in his hands and after the catch (and was in college too).

 

However, because of this I feel you’ll get a bit of volatility as teams will try to stop this.  Makes me feel like aiyuk is viewed as their prototypical WR and deebo is gadgety and an extension of their heavy run game. It makes me wonder about his production down the stretch. Just keep in mind it’s not your typical way WR1 get their production and wanted to put it out there.

doesnt that basically make him a pass catching rb you can slot at wr?  whats not to like?

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On 12/2/2020 at 1:51 PM, herschel said:

doesnt that basically make him a pass catching rb you can slot at wr?  whats not to like?

Well in a PPR that’s probably going to give you a nice enough floor, but in standard that’s like a spell back that doesn’t get goaline carries. If the gamescript is flipped and theyre down multiple scores they’ll look to go more vertical which may mean aiyuk has better games (if it turns out Deebo is not great at running routes).

 

I’m not saying he’s not solid, i just wanted to bring it to people’s awareness when they play these stat lines in their minds without seeing the game. I personally hope to see more ability down the feel and more off his getting open running routes. We haven’t had a huge SS of him this year and he’s playing with the backup QB. Everyone hates 4rec/7target 18yd games during the fantasy playoffs. That is what could happen if defenses start honing in on the behind the scrimmage stuff and he can’t get open downfield. Just be wary of it.

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Deebo has basically taken over the physical role that Kittle left behind. He is in a way an extension of their run game but so was Kittle at certain times. He’s basically getting all those short yardage physical plays that Kittle used to get. They don’t have anyone else like that on the team. Mix that in with his typical WR targets and what’s not to like.

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So who is starting him next week against WSH? I haven't had the chance to see many 49ers games, but I did not like what I saw last night. The 49ers clearly want to run the ball and really had no interest in pushing the ball downfield last night until they got down big. Aiyuk was clearly the preferred target at well. 

 

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2 minutes ago, WSR said:

So who is starting him next week against WSH? I haven't had the chance to see many 49ers games, but I did not like what I saw last night. The 49ers clearly want to run the ball and really had no interest in pushing the ball downfield last night until they got down big. Aiyuk was clearly the preferred target at well. 

 

both Deebo and Aiyuk saw 9 targets which is good.  Deebo definitely got more of his in garbage/catch up time.  Not sure if that is a sign of things to come or just a second half adjustment by shannahan.  I own both and have no idea which one ill be starting.  

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2 minutes ago, herschel said:

both Deebo and Aiyuk saw 9 targets which is good.  Deebo definitely got more of his in garbage/catch up time.  Not sure if that is a sign of things to come or just a second half adjustment by shannahan.  I own both and have no idea which one ill be starting.  

That’s what I’m trying to figure out. Whose the number one WR? Almost feels like no one is the true number one at their position outside of Kittle at TE. Everyone else is just playing their part in the system.

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