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Mecole Hardman 2020 Outlook


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1 hour ago, AnchorDown said:

Watkins was born with a nagging lower leg injury and it shouldn’t shock anyone when he inevitably misses games this season. He already has landed on the injury report with this season with the naggiest of injuries, the groin, and it’s really just a matter of time before the injuries pile up and get the best of him. Incredible player that will be defined by his unfortunate inability to stay healthy. 
 

Enter Hardman—a guy defined by his incredible efficiency and ability to take it to the house on any play. He’s never been a volume guy, but he also plays on an offense with options like Hill, Kelce, Watkins, and now CEH. It is true that in order for him to take the next step he will need one of these guys to go down at minimum—and he may never be a guy that is peppered with 10+ targets like Hill. That said, in his first year in the league, despite getting half the targets (41) as Tyreek had in his rookie year (83), he finished with just 55 fewer yards and the same amount of TDS (6). When a guy plays like that, how can you possibly keep him off the field?

There aren’t a lot of historical comps for the type of ridiculous plays Hardman was able to make with such limited opportunities. Guys that play like that don’t typically regress in terms of snap share or targets, and yet we saw over the second half of last season that exact thing happen to Hardman. Right now he’s an enigma—if you tell me he’s a future WR1/2 by the time the season is over, I wouldn’t argue with you. If you tell me he’s going to be a boom/bust WR4/5 that comes back to reality with his efficiency and gets limited opportunities on a team with many mouths to feed, I wouldn’t argue with you either. 
 

Still, there are few guys in the history of the league that have been that dynamic with limited opportunities. It’s hard for me to imagine the coaching staff looking at his tape from last year and thinking, that guy deserves less opportunities. We need to keep that guy off the field. And my bets this year in fantasy have been made accordingly. We will see tonight the early returns on those bets cashing. Good luck all!

 

He ain't a future WR1/2 - not on a team with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and CEH locked in on long-term deals.

Hardman played 480 snaps last year. With ridiculous efficiency that's unlikely to repeat itself with higher volume and a healthy Tyreek Hill, he scored 119.5 PPR points. Let's be generous and say he increases those snaps to 750 (more than any Chiefs receiver in 2019) and keeps up the efficiency. That gets him to 186.7 PPR points, which would have placed him as the WR34 in 2019, despite scoring 11 TDs.

Without an injury ahead of him, I'm thinking he's more of a 35 catch, 625 yard, 4 TD guy, with a weekly floor near zero. If he goes off tonight, sell high!

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Flaccidman

Mecole Hardman is the 2nd best receiver on the Chiefs behind Hill. No idea why the Chiefs don't give him more run; he's really good.   FREE MECOLE.

He's yourcole now

41 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

He ain't a future WR1/2 - not on a team with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and CEH locked in on long-term deals.

Hardman played 480 snaps last year. With ridiculous efficiency that's unlikely to repeat itself with higher volume and a healthy Tyreek Hill, he scored 119.5 PPR points. Let's be generous and say he increases those snaps to 750 (more than any Chiefs receiver in 2019) and keeps up the efficiency. That gets him to 186.7 PPR points, which would have placed him as the WR34 in 2019, despite scoring 11 TDs.

Without an injury ahead of him, I'm thinking he's more of a 35 catch, 625 yard, 4 TD guy, with a weekly floor near zero. If he goes off tonight, sell high!


Not that I disagree with your sentiment—I actually agree that Hardman turning into a WR1/2 this year is incredibly unlikely, barring injuries—but I do find your math here a bit suspect. For one, you put your snap numbers in a false context given that Hill and Watkins both missed games last year. And while you generously retained his efficiency numbers—which we both agree won’t remain as high as they were last year, increased volume or not—you failed to give him a higher target share that would result from those snaps. There’s nothing fundamentally about his game or situation that would suggest his ceiling is WR34, and it’s foolish to think that where he would land if he were the snap leader for a healthy Chiefs receiving corps. His ceiling is Tyreek Hill—an unlikely ceiling no doubt, but more representative of what he is capable of assuming he was given Tyreek’s role on this offense. We both agree he likely never gets there while Tyreek is healthy, even if Watkins goes down. But I think you’re underestimating what this guy is capable of and what his potential may be entering what his only his sophomore year in the league. 
 

The biggest thing holding him back right now is that in the absolute best case he’s the third receiving option behind Hill and Kelce, barring injury. An injury to Watkins is almost a given but it’s fair if you don’t want to take that leap. His target share will limit his potential and make that WR2 finish unlikely. Let’s take injuries out of the equation. Who’s to say he doesn’t continue to make the most of his opportunities, forcing the staff to redistribute the target share from RBs (100 last year) or that the targets of a guy like Demarcus Robinson look more like Byron Pringle next year, redistributing a portion of those to Hardman? How about if he simply overtakes Watkins and takes over his 90 targets he received last year? Who’s to say Kelce doesn’t finish with 136 targets this year like he did last year, but instead finishes around 100?  Could Hardman, after finishing his first year with some of the most incredibly efficient use of targets we’ve seen in league history, be the best player on the team and eventually surpasses Hill’s production? You’ll recall that Tyreek Hill himself wasn’t really Tyreek Hill until his sophomore year.

This league is ever changing and last year’s results are not always indicative of this year’s performance. If I’m making a list of players most likely to shock you with their year two fantasy performance over year one, Hardman has got to be on the shortlist. Considering that most people have him at the very end of their bench and have little if anything invested in him, it’s a dice roll I’m willing to make.

 

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57 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:


Not that I disagree with your sentiment—I actually agree that Hardman turning into a WR1/2 this year is incredibly unlikely, barring injuries—but I do find your math here a bit suspect. For one, you put your snap numbers in a false context given that Hill and Watkins both missed games last year. And while you generously retained his efficiency numbers—which we both agree won’t remain as high as they were last year, increased volume or not—you failed to give him a higher target share that would result from those snaps. There’s nothing fundamentally about his game or situation that would suggest his ceiling is WR34, and it’s foolish to think that where he would land if he were the snap leader for a healthy Chiefs receiving corps. His ceiling is Tyreek Hill—an unlikely ceiling no doubt, but more representative of what he is capable of assuming he was given Tyreek’s role on this offense. We both agree he likely never gets there while Tyreek is healthy, even if Watkins goes down. But I think you’re underestimating what this guy is capable of and what his potential may be entering what his only his sophomore year in the league. 
 

The biggest thing holding him back right now is that in the absolute best case he’s the third receiving option behind Hill and Kelce, barring injury. An injury to Watkins is almost a given but it’s fair if you don’t want to take that leap. His target share will limit his potential and make that WR2 finish unlikely. Let’s take injuries out of the equation. Who’s to say he doesn’t continue to make the most of his opportunities, forcing the staff to redistribute the target share from RBs (100 last year) or that the targets of a guy like Demarcus Robinson look more like Byron Pringle next year, redistributing a portion of those to Hardman? How about if he simply overtakes Watkins and takes over his 90 targets he received last year? Who’s to say Kelce doesn’t finish with 136 targets this year like he did last year, but instead finishes around 100?  Could Hardman, after finishing his first year with some of the most incredibly efficient use of targets we’ve seen in league history, be the best player on the team and eventually surpasses Hill’s production? You’ll recall that Tyreek Hill himself wasn’t really Tyreek Hill until his sophomore year.

This league is ever changing and last year’s results are not always indicative of this year’s performance. If I’m making a list of players most likely to shock you with their year two fantasy performance over year one, Hardman has got to be on the shortlist. Considering that most people have him at the very end of their bench and have little if anything invested in him, it’s a dice roll I’m willing to make.

 


His ceiling is not Tyreek Hill. Tyreek Hill runs a full route tree with much higher burst, agility, and catch radius scores. Tyreek Hill runs like a running back after the catch and is a star. Hardman is a straight line sprinter who fills a role. Tyreek Hill was targeted 72 times and handed the ball 22 times in his final 11 games his rookie year. Hardman was targeted 15 times and handed the ball 3 times in his final 11 games his rookie year. They're both fast and play for the Chiefs - that's it.

I simply said Hardman played 480 snaps. No "false context", or any context for that matter, was provided. If you want context, Hardman received the majority of his 480 snaps and targets while Tyreek Hill was hurt. I agree that playing more snaps will increase his total targets, but that does not mean he will be targeted more often per snap. I extrapolated his targets evenly with his hypothetical increase in snaps to 750. If anything, with Hill back and CEH in the fold, his share per snap is more likely to decrease or remain the same, not increase. Nevertheless, I kept his share the same.

Over the last month, Hardman's ADP has fluctuated between 129 and 136. That puts him as a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th bench player on most teams (12 team leagues), and not the "very end of the bench" guy you claim him to be.

For anyone listening - If he goes off tonight, sell high!

Edited by MrCantaloupe
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Sad that DRobinson is out there bumbling around and dropping every other pass over Mecole....

Mecole's a drop in redraft with shallow benches but still a good stash with larger benches as there's a decent chance he gets an opportunity at some point this season.

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Easy drop since he already played .. pickup a high upside WR you've had your eyes on for the Sunday/Monday slate, and see how that pans out.

No one is running to pickup Hardman unless in the deepest of leagues. It's basically a free play at wide-receiver 

Worst case scenario you can pick him back up no problem.  {This is obviously a bench move, for those who might be confused}

Edited by RunCMC
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On 9/10/2020 at 1:40 PM, Uncle_Ruckus said:

Hardman is a beast and will be the #2 WR for Chiefs this season. Got him on most of my teams. 

 

23 hours ago, BeefDaddy said:

hardman gonna light it up this year~ book it

 

13 hours ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

 

 

 

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You must not watch much football 😂. *In my Allen Iverson voice* Week 1, we’re talking about week 1!? C’mon man, we’re talking about week 1. 

 

You probably also bought high on Watkins after 200 yards and 3 TDs in week 1 last yr lol. I’ll be here to tea bag you with Hardman’s big games through the season 😎

Edited by Uncle_Ruckus
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11 minutes ago, Uncle_Ruckus said:

 

You must not watch much football 😂. *In my Allen Iverson voice* Week 1, we’re talking about week 1!? C’mon man, we’re talking about week 1. 

 

You probably also bought high on Watkins after 200 yards and 3 TDs in week 1 last yr lol. I’ll be here to tea bag you with Hardman’s big games through the season 😎

stevie_johnson-1.jpg

If you knew me, you would know that 95% of my posts are jokes.  No offense intended.  I hope Hardman does great for you this year!

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18 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

 

Snap %

DRob - 33, 48, 41

Hardman - 20, 50, 29

 

Sorry my friend, I wish it were true as well.

I know his snap usage wasn't above Robinson, however when he was on the field he was targeted and used more than Robinson was. That's what I was alluding to.

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3 hours ago, TwoCan Sam said:

I know his snap usage wasn't above Robinson, however when he was on the field he was targeted and used more than Robinson was. That's what I was alluding to.

 

Every game will be a different guy going off. Watch it be Pringle next week haha

You comfortably can't start Hardman or Robinson with Hill + Watkins still healthy 

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5 hours ago, TwoCan Sam said:

He was pretty involved last night. I think he's in the process of overtaking Robinson. Also Watkins has become a possession receiver who immediately falls down with zero YAC.

ha one game. avoiding big hits vs bal is pretty smart and not trying to do too much. his yac is still there.

 

 

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On 10/3/2020 at 10:35 AM, Rotocious said:

Is Hardman's potential worth holding onto still?  When given opportunity he's been extremely effective.

IMO yes. It's an interesting situation. He plays about the same snaps as Robinson, but between the two they seem to only manufacture touches for Hardman. Hardman is a much better weapon. So I'd think there's a very good chance Mecole surpasses Robinson to become the clear 3rd banana in this WR corps with the commensurate targets and snaps. 

Frankly he should be taking some snaps and targets from Watkins already. But SW will probably get hurt eventually anyway. 

FREE MECOLE! 

Edited by Drewfus
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