Tom Brady 2020 Outlook

[CooL 3,248]

TB is 26 to 1 to win MVP right now.  I'm thinking that's pretty good value.

Easily the most talented receiving group in the league.  And now they have a real RB in Rojo as well.

[Trifecta 2,133]

This should certainly raise both his floor and ceiling. Brady will be throwing to easily the top WR trio in the NFL.  Someone is always going to be open. 

 

Lots of chatter in the Evans and Godwin threads about the implications of AB signing, but the🐐should be the big fantasy winner here. 

 

[CharlesCC2 713]

I dunno.  I understand the collection of talent Brady is now working with, but let's look at the Packers game.  One of the best offenses in the league, the defense had their way with them and Brady did not have to do much.  That is a concern regardless of whatever upgrade Brown brings to the passing game, along with Ronald Jones looking effective these days.

Brady is not going to be better than Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Rodgers, Murray, probably not Watson with how he's looking with O'Brien gone, perhaps not Jackson if he can pick it up.  Now that I actually look at a list of QBs maybe Brady is the best thing after this bunch potentially.  Also have Tannehill and Herbert in that range.  I still fear game script holding back his ceiling though.

[sSektor 2,255]

I can't believe The System is working all the way in Tampa right now. Bill Belichick is truly a magician.

[Dislimb 1,379]

[pepper11 190]

Let's see what the rotoblurbers say.... let me guess

 

Old man Tom had an OK game but he is a middling QB 2 going forward

 

 

 

[pepper11 190]

Also. Billy B ain't the greatest. He just had Tom.

[CooL 3,248]

The GOATs MVP odds went from 26:1 to 5:1 after yesterday's brilliance.  I'd say things are looking up in Tompa.

[ThreadKiller 721]

I'd say many of the takes given early on in this thread didn't pan out so well.

The Tampa Bay offense looks great while meshing Arians' system with what Tom does well. He's been kept mostly upright (only been sacked 8 times (which is at a rate better than he's had in a while). All this with Evans and Godwin hobbled a majority of the year and add to that, AB will be joining them soon

[SharkSwimmer 4,885]

Brady has had a few excellent games and a few crappy ones so far.  And good old Antonio "Gasoline on the fire" Brown will be arriving soon.

The victory lap for Brady is a bit premature my man.

[TeflonDonNewcombe 75]

How are we feeling about him this week? Giants seem to be more of a run funnel and aren't terrible against the pass with Bradberry and Logan Ryan in the secondary, not to mention Godwin is out this week. I don't see the Giants presenting much of a roadblock so this could be an average game for ol Tom if this game gets out of hand early. 

[Trifecta 2,133]

On 10/24/2020 at 2:08 AM, CharlesCC2 said:

Brady is not going to be better than Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Rodgers, Murray, probably not Watson with how he's looking with O'Brien gone, perhaps not Jackson if he can pick it up.  Now that I actually look at a list of QBs maybe Brady is the best thing after this bunch potentially.  Also have Tannehill and Herbert in that range.  I still fear game script holding back his ceiling though.

 

He was also significantly cheaper on draft day than all of the guys you mentioned except maybe Rodgers.  And yes, Tannehill and Herbert fit the bill as excellent values.  

 

I don't really buy the game script concerns though.  The Bucs pass more than ANY of the teams/QBs you listed.  What other team can you think of that has two goal line pass catchers like Gronk and Mike Evans?  Tom is more likely to run it in himself or throw to one of those two guys at the goal line than he is to hand it off a few times to RoJo.  Brady likes to pad his stats historically.  

 

29 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Brady has had a few excellent games and a few crappy ones so far.  And good old Antonio "Gasoline on the fire" Brown will be arriving soon.

The victory lap for Brady is a bit premature my man.

 

I think he's proving to be a bargain at his ADP.   Plenty of positives after 7 weeks, the best of which is Gronk is finally rounding into form.  No matter what you think about Antonio Brown being added to the mix, he's one more guy defenses will have to plan for every week.  Really, so far it seems he just needs all hands on deck (looking at you, Godwin) to be productive.  

 

Taking a look at that juicy playoff schedule, I think he will end up being on a lot of fantasy championship rosters, especially considering where he was drafted.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Trifecta

[CooL 3,248]

4 hours ago, Trifecta said:

I think he's proving to be a bargain at his ADP.   Plenty of positives after 7 weeks, the best of which is Gronk is finally rounding into form.  No matter what you think about Antonio Brown being added to the mix, he's one more guy defenses will have to plan for every week.  Really, so far it seems he just needs all hands on deck (looking at you, Godwin) to be productive.  

 

Taking a look at that juicy playoff schedule, I think he will end up being on a lot of fantasy championship rosters, especially considering where he was drafted.

Completely agree.  The "old man tier" of Brady, Rodgers, and Brees was felt to be a bail out and options to rely on if you missed on any of the top guys.  Imagine if you had a Rodgers and Brady tandem?  You'd be sitting pretty in your league right now.

In real life, Tampa has to be thrilled that they signed the GOAT for I think the bargain price of $25 million?  When guys who couldn't even hold his jock like Carr, Goff, etc. are being paid much more?  What a win for Tompa and I'm excited to see what happens when AB gets on the field.

[BMcP 8,278]

3 minutes ago, CooL said:

Completely agree.  The "old man tier" of Brady, Rodgers, and Brees was felt to be a bail out and options to rely on if you missed on any of the top guys.  Imagine if you had a Rodgers and Brady tandem?  You'd be sitting pretty in your league right now.

In real life, Tampa has to be thrilled that they signed the GOAT for I think the bargain price of $25 million?  When guys who couldn't even hold his jock like Carr, Goff, etc. are being paid much more?  What a win for Tompa and I'm excited to see what happens when AB gets on the field.

Eh - $25M comes in at fourth overall in cap dollars for 2020 and fourth highest percentage of cap for 2020.  I don’t know about “bargain price.”

[CooL 3,248]

1 minute ago, BMcP said:

Eh - $25M comes in at fourth overall in cap dollars for 2020 and fourth highest percentage of cap for 2020.  I don’t know about “bargain price.”

I'm looking at average salary per year.  He and Brees are at $25 million a year, tied for 16th in the league.  Goff, Cousins, Wentz, Brisset (!), Jimmy G (!), Stafford, and Carr all above him.  How is 25 million for the GOAT not a bargain?

[BMcP 8,278]

2 minutes ago, CooL said:

I'm looking at average salary per year.  He and Brees are at $25 million a year, tied for 16th in the league.  Goff, Cousins, Wentz, Brisset (!), Jimmy G (!), Stafford, and Carr all above him.  How is 25 million for the GOAT not a bargain?

Brees is at $23.650M this year.  All of the others are millions below that.  Would you mind citing your reference?

Again, just not sure how you can point to the fourth-highest-paid QB currently and style it a “bargain.”

Edited October 29, 2020 by BMcP

[Krustyburger 195]

Tampa with Arians had a nice thing going here. The worry has to be is it all undermined now with TB getting his man in against his coaches better judgement? We will have to wait and see I guess

[shakestreet 4,096]

On 10/25/2020 at 7:21 PM, sSektor said:

I can't believe The System is working all the way in Tampa right now. Bill Belichick is truly a magician.

Yep ... in the Patriots thread we sure read a lot of posts about the demise of Tom and Bill was the straw that stirred the drink. 
 

How about those posts that Bruce Arians will not/never change his offense to suit Tom Brady. 

[SharkSwimmer 4,885]

Brady is throwing it deep a ton, throwing more picks, and taking more sacks.  This looks like a pretty standard Arians offense to me.

[sSektor 2,255]

1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

Yep ... in the Patriots thread we sure read a lot of posts about the demise of Tom and Bill was the straw that stirred the drink. 
 

How about those posts that Bruce Arians will not/never change his offense to suit Tom Brady. 

I'm not sure that Arians changed the system all that much it just seems like the offense is clicking much better.

[BrianM 1,238]

I don't know how long this will last but I am riding Brady as long as he stays hot in a league. 

[Trifecta 2,133]

56 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Brady is throwing it deep a ton, throwing more picks, and taking more sacks.  This looks like a pretty standard Arians offense to me.

 

He's only thrown 4 picks.  He averaged 9.94 from 2001 through last year (excluded his rookie year and 2008 in which he only played one game each season). He's right on pace for his average over that time frame.

 

He's only taken 8 sacks.  He averaged 27.78 over the same time period I stated above, well below pace for his average.

 

The only thing you might be right about is he is throwing it deep more, but even that is difficult to support.  And I fail to see how that would be considered a negative.

 

It seems to me his fantasy value is rejuvenated in this offense.  But to each his own.

[CooL 3,248]

2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Brees is at $23.650M this year.  All of the others are millions below that.  Would you mind citing your reference?

Again, just not sure how you can point to the fourth-highest-paid QB currently and style it a “bargain.”

I'm looking at average $ / year , not the 2020 actual salary the QB is receiving.  https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/. I don't think you can really use what they're receiving in 2020 as a ruler about how much the team is paying over the course of the contract.  If you want to look at fully guaranteed money, his $50M ranks 11th.

Even if we were to look at the actual 2020 salaries that these guys are receiving, he's tied for 5th with Old Man Rivers.  And ahead of him are Jimmy G (26.6M) and Goff (28.8).  Tell me that the GOAT at 25M isn't a bargain when compared to these stooges.

His signing was a win for Tampa and Brady is definitely winning the "who landed on his feet better" question when evaluating the Brady/Belichick divorce.

[BMcP 8,278]

7 hours ago, CooL said:

I'm looking at average $ / year , not the 2020 actual salary the QB is receiving.  https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/. I don't think you can really use what they're receiving in 2020 as a ruler about how much the team is paying over the course of the contract.  If you want to look at fully guaranteed money, his $50M ranks 11th.

Even if we were to look at the actual 2020 salaries that these guys are receiving, he's tied for 5th with Old Man Rivers.  And ahead of him are Jimmy G (26.6M) and Goff (28.8).  Tell me that the GOAT at 25M isn't a bargain when compared to these stooges.

His signing was a win for Tampa and Brady is definitely winning the "who landed on his feet better" question when evaluating the Brady/Belichick divorce.

He’s tied for fourth with OMR.  Anyway, I still don’t understand why looking at AAV of a contract is the right approach for looking at a QB going on 44 starting in the NFL at the moment.  They are paying him a ton - and getting what they bargained for - but it’s not a steal or anything.

[itslarry 107]

32 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He’s tied for fourth with OMR.  Anyway, I still don’t understand why looking at AAV of a contract is the right approach for looking at a QB going on 44 starting in the NFL at the moment.  They are paying him a ton - and getting what they bargained for - but it’s not a steal or anything.

Yeah, its more a fact that a lot of QBs have really bad contracts because the teams had no other options.