Lamar Jackson 2020 Outlook

[aapox 898]

19 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Do what?

 

Lamar Jackson in the 3rd round?

 

Biggest cheat code in fantasy football. An excellent QB who also posts RB1 numbers. 

 

Same reason CMC was so devastating to opponents last year and was by far and away the best PPR player because he posted RB1 AND WR1 numbers.

 

Consider yourself lucky to get LJax in the 2nd round of any competitive league.

 

So where are you taking him? I get that he posted RB1 numbers, last year, but I don't believe that should be the expectation moving forward. I will say it'll be scary for anyone who drafts CMC #1 overall to get Lamar or even Mahomes on the 2/3 turn.

[DerrickHenrysCleats 6,226]

2 hours ago, aapox said:

 

So where are you taking him? I get that he posted RB1 numbers, last year, but I don't believe that should be the expectation moving forward. I will say it'll be scary for anyone who drafts CMC #1 overall to get Lamar or even Mahomes on the 2/3 turn.

 

I'm prepared to take him round 2.

[DezedandConfused 3,026]

Does the Madden Curse still exist tho?

[Boudewijn 4,886]

1 hour ago, DezedandConfused said:

 

Does the Madden Curse still exist tho?

Madden 2020: Mahomes won the Superbowl.

Madden 2019: Antonio Brown 2018 #4 WR (although the curse broke him the next year)

Madden 2018: Tom Brady lost the Superbowl (which admittedly by their standards made it a terrible season)

Madden 2017: Gronk got injured halfway through the 2016 season.

Madden 2016: OBJ played 15 games and was the #5 WR

Madden 2015: Richard Sherman was all-pro and lost the superbowl to the Patriots (which makes it a pretty darn great season by Seahawks standards)

Madden 2014: Adrian Peterson 1437 yards in 14 games.

Madden 2013: Calvin Johnson had 1964 yds which is still the most receiving yds ever in a season, by about 100 yds.

Madden 2012: Peyton Hillis came off a 1600 yd season but had only 717 in 2011 with hamstring problems

Madden 2011: Drew Brees threw 4620/32 (#3 in yards, #1 in completion%) and got to the play-offs.

 

[DezedandConfused 3,026]

12 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Madden 2020: Mahomes won the Superbowl.

 

 

Mahomes also did have that freak knee injury as well, but he only missed 2 games.

[joshua18 7,040]

5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Madden 2020: Mahomes won the Superbowl.

Madden 2019: Antonio Brown 2018 #4 WR (although the curse broke him the next year)

Madden 2018: Tom Brady lost the Superbowl (which admittedly by their standards made it a terrible season)

Madden 2017: Gronk got injured halfway through the 2016 season.

Madden 2016: OBJ played 15 games and was the #5 WR

Madden 2015: Richard Sherman was all-pro and lost the superbowl to the Patriots (which makes it a pretty darn great season by Seahawks standards)

Madden 2014: Adrian Peterson 1437 yards in 14 games.

Madden 2013: Calvin Johnson had 1964 yds which is still the most receiving yds ever in a season, by about 100 yds.

Madden 2012: Peyton Hillis came off a 1600 yd season but had only 717 in 2011 with hamstring problems

Madden 2011: Drew Brees threw 4620/32 (#3 in yards, #1 in completion%) and got to the play-offs.

You missed the most important point: None of those players were as good as the previous year. Megatron in 2013 famously scored only 5 TDs.
 

Last year Mahomes missed time and didn’t finish as a top-5 QB despite being drafted as the QB1. Expecting similar results for LJax this year.
 

[Boudewijn 4,886]

5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Madden 2013: Calvin Johnson had 1964 yds which is still the most receiving yds ever in a season, by about 100 yds.

 

4 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

You missed the most important point: None of those players were as good as the previous year. Megatron in 2013 famously scored only 5 TDs.

 

Holy crap, you're not easily satisfied, are you? Are you my girlfriend?

 

[joshua18 7,040]

4 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

 

Holy crap, you're not easily satisfied, are you? Are you my girlfriend?

 

Just the facts. Anyone who owned Megatron that year at his high ADP knows how frustrating it was to see the media drool over him while getting tackled at the 1 yard line seemingly every week, and seeing Brandon Marshall, AJ Green and Dez more than double his TD production at far cheaper ADPs.

[Boudewijn 4,886]

13 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

Just the facts. Anyone who owned Megatron that year at his high ADP knows how frustrating it was to see the media drool over him while getting tackled at the 1 yard line seemingly every week, and seeing Brandon Marshall, AJ Green and Dez more than double his TD production at far cheaper ADPs.

He was #7 in fantasy points in STD (excluding QBs) and #2 in PPR.

[Evincar 1,755]

9 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

He was #7 in fantasy points in STD (excluding QBs) and #2 in PPR.

 

2012 Megatron is a good example on why TDs can be every fluky and hard to predict. He had 12 the next season in 2 less games.

[colepenhagen 3,616]

3 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

2012 Megatron is a good example on why TDs can be every fluky and hard to predict. He had 12 the next season in 2 less games.

unless ur julio.

57 career tds in 126 games. vs decker 53 tds in 111 games.

not trying to derail lamar thread too much

 

seems like lamar always goes 5ish bucks cheaper than mahomes in auction. kinda like 1a situation with barkley and cmc.

Edited July 19, 2020 by colepenhagen

[bhawks489 3,679]

13 hours ago, joshua18 said:

You missed the most important point: None of those players were as good as the previous year. Megatron in 2013 famously scored only 5 TDs.
 

Last year Mahomes missed time and didn’t finish as a top-5 QB despite being drafted as the QB1. Expecting similar results for LJax this year.
 

He also set the yardage record for WRs in a single season.

 

[NInsko 263]

RB1/QB1 with more weapons this yr. Don't expect the same efficency throwing tds but dothink more rushing tds will balance that out.

[TeeGee60 388]

Soft tissue issues as per harbaugh... ughhhhhh hope for some clarity before the draft

[Boudewijn 4,886]

3 hours ago, TeeGee60 said:

Soft tissue issues as per harbaugh... ughhhhhh hope for some clarity before the draft

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29726871/ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-dealing-groin-injury-sources-say

OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- Baltimore Ravens quarterback and reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson has missed the past two training camp practices because of a groin injury, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Jackson is slated to return to action on Monday, sources said.

[SadFaceHappy 2,049]

I'm a little hesitant with him this year.  Don't think he'll repeat his 1k yards rushing, but will hopefully open it up in the air a bit more.

That being said, I have the 4th pick in a superflex and I'll be taking whomever of CMC, Barkley, Mahomes, or Jackson makes it to that spot.

He'd also be tough to pass up at the top of the 3rd in a typical snake

[Illusion_J 152]

Lamar was walking quite gingerly to practice today on a video posted by the Ravens IG.  I want to be in, but for right now I'm out.  This will change if he can get some good full speed practice reps in without issue.  The positive is I guess he's practicing in some capacity.

Edited August 24, 2020 by Illusion_J

[ChicksDigTheOPS 2,500]

On 7/19/2020 at 3:11 AM, joshua18 said:

You missed the most important point: None of those players were as good as the previous year. Megatron in 2013 famously scored only 5 TDs.

isn't that to be expected? generally, you get on the cover of a video game by having an outstanding season. seems only natural that the law of averages trend downward after that. 

[yahyahtrick 532]

Fell to the 3rd in a 16 teamer, had to take him 

[rasrar 255]

Bump. 

How do people feel about Lamar this year? Do people think he will run significantly less?

Personally, I'm expecting less volume rushing, but he could have about 50 less rushing attempts and still post close to 1000 yards.

I think the easy schedule as well as a healthy Marquise Brown could lead to more yards.

I still feel comfortable calling him the QB1.

Thoughts?

[Stonej14 680]

13 minutes ago, rasrar said:

Bump. 

How do people feel about Lamar this year? Do people think he will run significantly less?

Personally, I'm expecting less volume rushing, but he could have about 50 less rushing attempts and still post close to 1000 yards.

I think the easy schedule as well as a healthy Marquise Brown could lead to more yards.

I still feel comfortable calling him the QB1.

Thoughts?

diddo

[Deuce1042 159]

53 minutes ago, rasrar said:

Bump. 

How do people feel about Lamar this year? Do people think he will run significantly less?

Personally, I'm expecting less volume rushing, but he could have about 50 less rushing attempts and still post close to 1000 yards.

I think the easy schedule as well as a healthy Marquise Brown could lead to more yards.

I still feel comfortable calling him the QB1.

Thoughts?

 

Lamar has been a 3000 yard passer, 1000 yard rusher pretty much his whole career as a full time starter going back to college. I think that'll probably change this year. I'd be surprised if he ever rushes for 1000 yards again. They drafted Dobbins to take the load off of Jackson. But he's proven me wrong before. 

[Panthers8912 713]

TDs coming down, rushing yards coming down. Don’t think he provides the same advantage he did last year. If you feel that he will repeat what he did last year, absolutely grab him in the 3rd. Just not for me

[Stonej14 680]

1 minute ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

Lamar has been a 3000 yard passer, 1000 yard rusher pretty much his whole career as a full time starter going back to college. I think that'll probably change this year. I'd be surprised if he ever rushes for 1000 yards again. They drafted Dobbins to take the load off of Jackson. But he's proven me wrong before. 

honestly I think the could have an even more impressive season for fantasy. They were winning so many games by so much he hardly played any 4th quarters and didn’t play the last game of the year. I would’nt be surprised to see less team success and him having to do more similar to his playoff loss against the titans where he had over 500 yards of offense but didn’t play well.

 

I’m not saying that’s a certainty just that it’s in his range of outcomes. Just like he could suck this year. 

[Deuce1042 159]

4 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

honestly I think the could have an even more impressive season for fantasy. They were winning so many games by so much he hardly played any 4th quarters and didn’t play the last game of the year. I would’nt be surprised to see less team success and him having to do more similar to his playoff loss against the titans where he had over 500 yards of offense but didn’t play well.

 

I’m not saying that’s a certainty just that it’s in his range of outcomes. Just like he could suck this year. 

 

I have the Ravens going 12-4 this year, but a tough 12-4. Not as many blowouts and Jackson will play all 16 games barring injury. They'll probably lose a game or two they shouldn't. It's hard to follow up historic seasons back to back so Lamar is due for some regression (especially in efficiency). I don't think the league will "figure him out" like his detractors say though. The league doesn't really "figure out" great players in the way people mean. 

 

By now everyone knows what Mahomes does well and what he doesn't. It's just having the personnel to take advantage of that. It's gonna be the same with Jackson. The Dolphins game notwithstanding, Lamar's best performances last season were from week 9 and onward when teams already had weeks of film on him by that point. Remember Baltimore's offense struggled early in the year after the Miami game.