Lamar Jackson 2020 Outlook

[Deuce1042 126]

NFL fans really need to stop capping online. You can’t tell if a QB is going through their progressions or even what the reads are watching a live broadcast. Because you’re not given a backside view and you can’t see more than 10 yards down field until the camera pans after a throw. 

[BMcP 8,278]

6 hours ago, Deuce1042 said:

NFL fans really need to stop capping online. You can’t tell if a QB is going through their progressions or even what the reads are watching a live broadcast. Because you’re not given a backside view and you can’t see more than 10 yards down field until the camera pans after a throw. 

Thank you!

[goke 142]

14 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

The offense was built around his ability to run, not pass.  That is why it is having rapidly diminishing returns.  He had 2 carries for 3 yards vs Cincy this year.  I don't even care about that point, but you stated there wasn't another game.

Plus, it is easy for Lamar to pad rushing stats late even in a losing effort. 

Yes, they need to address their line.  Yes, he needs better receivers.  And finally, YES, he needs to throw better.  If you think Jackson is a good passing QB right now based off of his stats, I would highly recommend watching him live.  Most of the passing isn't pretty, his reading of the progressions isn't happening, and he despite being a dynamic runner he doesn't use it to open up his passing game. 

 

 

You clearly don't watch the games...the difference between Lamar and other elite QBs is a WR1...its that simple

[Sternes 5,009]

On 1/20/2021 at 1:11 PM, goke said:

 

 

You clearly don't watch the games...the difference between Lamar and other elite QBs is a WR1...its that simple

 

I watch plenty of the games. Think what you want.  Lamar is an elite rusher, but he isn't an elite QB.  His supporting cast needs to be improved but their is a blueprint to beat him which is becoming more and more obvious.

[kdko 1,186]

On 1/20/2021 at 10:11 AM, goke said:

 

 

You clearly don't watch the games...the difference between Lamar and other elite QBs is a WR1...its that simple

 

Disagree, but it will certainly help.

[SuperJoint 4,116]

On 1/20/2021 at 10:11 AM, goke said:

 

 

You clearly don't watch the games...the difference between Lamar and other elite QBs is a WR1...its that simple

I probably would have agreed with you after last year. But shortly after that season I watched (because my son made me) the Skills Competition (part of the Pro Bowl). I was extremely dismayed at what I saw in the precision passing drill (and I do suggest you watch because it is truly bad). 

Then - this season happened. Not an awful season but holy hell if that is how inaccurate you are with no pass rush I'm not sure this problem is fixable. I don't normally put a lot of stock at guys throwing football at moving cute decorated targets - but his performance was so godawful in hindsight it explains his struggles this year to a decent degree. 

There is no dispute he needs - as I said - the prototype big-bodied target-hog type WR to get some chunk plays. Andrews is not enough - they need someone with some speed. All of that aside though, I have serious questions about LJax's future unless some major improvement is made with his passing game.

Edited January 22 by SuperJoint

[Boudewijn 4,456]

4 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

I probably would have agreed with you after last year. But shortly after that season I watched (because my son made me) the Skills Competition (part of the Pro Bowl). I was extremely dismayed at what I saw in the precision passing drill (and I do suggest you watch because it is truly bad). 

The tweet/video in that link seems disabled/removed. Was it the same as this?

 

[Deuce1042 126]

4 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

I probably would have agreed with you after last year. But shortly after that season I watched (because my son made me) the Skills Competition (part of the Pro Bowl). I was extremely dismayed at what I saw in the precision passing drill (and I do suggest you watch because it is truly bad). 

Then - this season happened. Not an awful season but holy hell if that is how inaccurate you are with no pass rush I'm not sure this problem is fixable. I don't normally put a lot of stock at guys throwing football at moving cute decorated targets - but his performance was so godawful in hindsight it explains his struggles this year to a decent degree. 

There is no dispute he needs - as I said - the prototype big-bodied target-hog type WR to get some chunk plays. Andrews is not enough - they need someone with some speed. All of that aside though, I have serious questions about LJax's future unless some major improvement is made with his passing game.

That skills competition doesn't explain a thing and it's ridiculous how all of a sudden when it comes to Lamar Jackson a pro bowl competition matters (Russell Wilson also stunk one year at that too but that's neither here nor there). 

 

For starters Lamar did not have a bad season. He just didn't have an MVP year. They lost HOF Guard Marshal Yanda and didn't replace him with anyone competent. Ronnie Stanley got injured so they had to move Orlando Brown Jr. to left tackle and now right tackle was compromised. And they flat out had to play three different centers this season. Not because anybody got hurt, but because they were terrible and two of them couldn't even snap the ball consistently. This resulted in Lamar's mechanics regressing because teams repeatedly were able to generate interior pressure and it caused frantic QB play. Baker Mayfield went through the same thing a year ago. 

Eric DeCosta invested 90% of his energy into the defense and the offense got hung out to dry. OL regressed badly, they lost Hayden Hurst and didn't replace him, and the only WR additions they made were in the middle rounds and they mostly played special teams. The whole reason Baltimore switched from a zone read team to a counter bash team is because the OL couldn't block zone. 

 

And quite frankly, Lamar isn't as good a passer as some of the other QBs in the league, but he's asked to do way more than them. Aaron Rodgers doesn't have to effectively be RB1 for his team. Lamar does (in part because he can). On top of having to do the same QB duties as every other QB. We saw Arizona try to do the same thing with Kyler and he physically wore down by mid season. Was battling injuries the whole back stretch of the year. 

Edited January 22 by Deuce1042

[Deuce1042 126]

Also guys Lamar has been in the league three years now. Really. His pro day was in 2018. It's 2021. 

[Deuce1042 126]

LJ is a special talent, but he's simply not going to be good enough year to year to overcome the multitude of roster deficiencies they have on the offensive side of the ball. We already saw MVP Lamar cover for their lack of talent and experience at WR (Marquise is good but he's niche). If your QB has to have historic seasons for your offense to consistently be functional, then your roster construction is fundamentally flawed. Lamar is probably never going to have another season where he throws 35+ TD passes and be dead last in pass attempts for QBs who start at least 15 games. That kind of efficiency isn't duplicable. Especially when he has his own things he needs to get better at. 

[Boudewijn 4,456]

I decided to look a bit into the question of his passing. To clarify, I don't own him in Dynasty, don't have a vested interest in LJax; I don't support or hate the Ravens. All I want to know is how he runs that offense and to some extent, whether he could be good value for next season's drafts.

I tried to find an average game from this season. Jackson throws on average 17 completions at 65% completion rate for a QB rating of around 100; against the Eagles he went 16/27 passing for 186/1/0 and a QB rating of 90, so just below his average. Here are the throws I found in the highlights compilation.

1) 3rd & 10 on Philly 47.

It's a bit of a wobbler but acccurate and got them a 1st down.

2) 3rd & 10 on Philly 37:

Throw was fine, slightly behind but good catch and great block ahead of him.

3) In the redzone,

Jackson gets to the outside, doesn't see a man free, and just before he gets sacked he throws a sidearm to Boyle. Dangerous, but not a bad throw.

Next couple throws shown in the highlights again I have no problem with, they're on the money.

4) Philly half, 3rd & 7

That's not a great throw, too far in front of the receiver, but obviously he is under pressure, and at least it was a fairly safe throw.

(as a bonus, one of the plays that makes him so much fun to watch on a good day):

That's just awesome (edit: now with salto).

5) Own half, 1st & 20:

Early flag on the play and he throws it into tight coverage - which I'm not a fan of but that pass is as tight as you could possibly hope for. 5 inches to the left or right and it's intercepted. Good accuracy.

6) One more deep play to Brown from his own half:

That's a good deep throw, on the money (good route too by Brown of course).

All in all, from a quick look, I really don't see how Jackson is a particularly bad passer. For reference, the same game shows a completely disintegrating Wentz - now that's a different story. Obviously Jackson is going to have good and bad games, as we all do, but if this is his average, then that's certainly not bad.

Edited January 22 by Boudewijn

[TTo34 2,950]

On 1/22/2021 at 1:29 AM, Boudewijn said:

I decided to look a bit into the question of his passing. To clarify, I don't own him in Dynasty, don't have a vested interest in LJax; I don't support or hate the Ravens. All I want to know is how he runs that offense and to some extent, whether he could be good value for next season's drafts.

I tried to find an average game from this season. Jackson throws on average 17 completions at 65% completion rate for a QB rating of around 100; against the Eagles he went 16/27 passing for 186/1/0 and a QB rating of 90, so just below his average. Here are the throws I found in the highlights compilation.

1) 3rd & 10 on Philly 47.

It's a bit of a wobbler but acccurate and got them a 1st down.

2) 3rd & 10 on Philly 37:

Throw was fine, slightly behind but good catch and great block ahead of him.

3) In the redzone,

Jackson gets to the outside, doesn't see a man free, and just before he gets sacked he throws a sidearm to Boyle. Dangerous, but not a bad throw.

Next couple throws shown in the highlights again I have no problem with, they're on the money.

4) Philly half, 3rd & 7

That's not a great throw, too far in front of the receiver, but obviously he is under pressure, and at least it was a fairly safe throw.

(as a bonus, one of the plays that makes him so much fun to watch on a good day):

That's just awesome (edit: now with salto).

5) Own half, 1st & 20:

Early flag on the play and he throws it into tight coverage - which I'm not a fan of but that pass is as tight as you could possibly hope for. 5 inches to the left or right and it's intercepted. Good accuracy.

6) One more deep play to Brown from his own half:

That's a good deep throw, on the money (good route too by Brown of course).

All in all, from a quick look, I really don't see how Jackson is a particularly bad passer. For reference, the same game shows a completely disintegrating Wentz - now that's a different story. Obviously Jackson is going to have good and bad games, as we all do, but if this is his average, then that's certainly not bad.

This is the skills competition just earlier in 2020.  Standing still, no blitzes, no defensive pressure.  He is wildly off the mark.

For comparison, here's Kirk Cousins in the same competition.  I think most would consider Kirk an above average QB, but not in the elite tier.  This is what I would expect a pro QB to accomplish.

 

[Boudewijn 4,456]

11 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

This is the skills competition just earlier in 2020.  Standing still, no blitzes, no defensive pressure.  He is wildly off the mark.

He looks like he has a major hangover. Possibly he didn't take it fully seriously

[BMcP 8,278]

We talking “skills competition” up in this b?  I mean, no one is acting as if Lamar is the second coming of Drew Brees, but for the sake of some much-needed context:

LJ had a bad-throw percentage that ranked right about middle of the pack among starting QBs this year (17.6%) - which put him exactly on par with some guy named Patrick Mahomes and a smidge below Herbert.

His on-target percentage was below average (75.3%, 23rd overall), but certainly not abysmal - e.g., Tom Brady, in his one of his best seasons of his career this year, only mustered a 73.9%, good for 31st in the league.

Also, are we forgetting this kid just finished his age-23 season (!!) and played with only one WR worthy of mention (Brown)?  Let’s see what he can do with a true WR1 and another year and off-season of experience - woe to those who wrote off Allen and his accuracy issues through his first two years as a starter.

[wonderbread 252]

On 1/24/2021 at 3:24 AM, TTo34 said:

This is the skills competition just earlier in 2020.  Standing still, no blitzes, no defensive pressure.  He is wildly off the mark.

For comparison, here's Kirk Cousins in the same competition.  I think most would consider Kirk an above average QB, but not in the elite tier.  This is what I would expect a pro QB to accomplish.

 

If I remember correctly, each team had to pick a non QB player to go through the same drill and either Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, or both did better than he did. I really don't understand why people are so fiercely defending him. He's an average at best thrower in the NFL. That's not really up for debate.

[devaster 4,376]

1 hour ago, wonderbread said:

If I remember correctly, each team had to pick a non QB player to go through the same drill and either Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, or both did better than he did. I really don't understand why people are so fiercely defending him. He's an average at best thrower in the NFL. That's not really up for debate.

Are people really here arguing that he isn't an average thrower? I thought they were arguing that he is terrible and is on the same level as Tebow. Lamar is an average or good thrower. He has very good arm strength (is it elite?). And he hits throws and misses other throws. He won't be an elite accurate thrower, but his legs make up for his deficiencies.

There have also been plenty of QB's that are accurate and don't have the arm and/or mental capacity to be an elite QB. Lamar has already shown he can do that. All the pieces as a whole for his game equate to an elite QB.

[Deuce1042 126]

1 hour ago, wonderbread said:

If I remember correctly, each team had to pick a non QB player to go through the same drill and either Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, or both did better than he did. I really don't understand why people are so fiercely defending him. He's an average at best thrower in the NFL. That's not really up for debate.

"The pro bowl that everybody says doesn't matter suddenly matters because of a player I don't like."  

[Deuce1042 126]

Also I don't think a soul in this conversation has said he was an elite thrower. You don't even have to be that to be a Super Bowl winning QB. 

[wonderbread 252]

2 hours ago, Deuce1042 said:

"The pro bowl that everybody says doesn't matter suddenly matters because of a player I don't like."  

I know you aren't quoting me, because I never said:

a. that that I don't like Lamar Jackson

or

b. That the probowl matters

I just pointed out that a QB that is often criticized for his poor accuracy did poorly at a drill designed to show accuracy. That does matter, even if it's...aT tHe pRO bOwl...

 

[devaster 4,376]

11 minutes ago, wonderbread said:

I know you aren't quoting me, because I never said:

a. that that I don't like Lamar Jackson

or

b. That the probowl matters

I just pointed out that a QB that is often criticized for his poor accuracy did poorly at a drill designed to show accuracy. That does matter, even if it's...aT tHe pRO bOwl...

 

I don't really think that spectacle of a drill in the Pro Bowl really shows anything. Additionally, one small sample isn't a great statistical representation of an average.

[kdko 1,186]

1 minute ago, devaster said:

I don't really think that spectacle of a drill in the Pro Bowl really shows anything. Additionally, one small sample isn't a great statistical representation of an average.

 

I understand what you're saying, but you'd think a professional, starting QB in the NFL would hit more than 2 easy targets out there, lol.  

[Deuce1042 126]

18 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

I understand what you're saying, but you'd think a professional, starting QB in the NFL would hit more than 2 easy targets out there, lol.  

 

If my memory is correct, Russell Wilson got beat by a non-QB at that event one year. Nobody cared. Because nobody actually took that event that seriously....until it was Lamar Jackson of course. 

[wonderbread 252]

25 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

If my memory is correct, Russell Wilson got beat by a non-QB at that event one year. Nobody cared. Because nobody actually took that event that seriously....until it was Lamar Jackson of course. 

Yeah, the difference is that Lamar is also inaccurate in real NFL games.....

[BMcP 8,278]

27 minutes ago, wonderbread said:

Yeah, the difference is that Lamar is also inaccurate in real NFL games.....

2020 Accuracy Stats:

Bad Throw Pct.:

LJ: 17.6

RW: 15.8

On-target Pct.:

LJ: 75.3

RW: 79.5

 

Not seeing a world of difference here between Lamar and Russell, personally.

[Deuce1042 126]

13 minutes ago, BMcP said:

2020 Accuracy Stats:

Bad Throw Pct.:

LJ: 17.6

RW: 15.8

On-target Pct.:

LJ: 75.3

RW: 79.5

 

Not seeing a world of difference here between Lamar and Russell, personally.

Because there isn’t. Lamar’s on target % is above average in the NFL and he’s consistently been above average throwing at the intermediate levels of the field and deep over the middle of the field. His deep ball up the sideline stunk this year.