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Trea Turner 2020 Outlook


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Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

No, I didn’t miss anything. “Tail off” is extremely subjective if you think 50 SBs in your 30s is tailing off. But the numbers are there. Readers can decide for themselves.

It was mis-leading to point out the SB totals in their late 20's and 30's and not point out where there SB were starting from. Since they all stole more then Turner ever has. 

I don't pretend to know what he means by tail off, but he i doubt he was presuming that they stopped stealing all together. Given he was giving Turner 33 SB projection. They for sure declined. Going from 50 to 30 is a 40% drop. Turner is starting from a lower ceiling then those guys.

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5 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

And this has nothing to do with the post made and what I was replying to. 

 

I mean, it kinda does.  It's kind of misleading to cite absolute numbers of steals from an era when players regularly stole 60, 80, 100+ bags to make a point that guys in their 30s can still steal a lot.  Nobody's saying Trea is going to drop down to 20 bags, but here is a comparison of Turner's SB numbers to those other guys, scaled to each player's career high in SB:

 

image.thumb.png.e1e0b4294d0208dc65c518bfddd11424.png

 

I added the yellow AVG line as the average of Coleman, Lofton, and Raines to smooth out their individual results a bit.  Trea is in red.  On average, those bag swiping legends were at about 64% of their career peak in terms of stolen bases at age 27.  Lofton managed to hit his peak later than that (29), but Raines and Coleman hit theirs at 23 and, except for some smaller peaks later, never reached those heights again.

Turner getting 64% of his career-best SBs would put him at 30.  Certainly helping your team, but likely not what you expected of him as a first rounder.  Maybe he goes the Lofton route and pops 50+ one of these years, but the historical record suggests that's unlikely.

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4 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

No, I didn’t miss anything. “Tail off” is extremely subjective if you think 50 SBs in your 30s is tailing off. But the numbers are there. Readers can decide for themselves.

50 sbs is tailing off when you were getting 70 a few years before.  A similar drop off to these type of guys would put turner at 32 Sb.  Of course everyone is different, the math isn’t even close to perfect and there are many, many other factors, but guys usually don’t tend to have career sb years at 27.  Not saying he can’t do it mind you.

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7 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

 

If there was a 27 year old infielder that you expect to hit .290 with 45 home runs and 22 steals, where would you take him?  That’s a reasonable trea year with homers and steals flipped.  Steals are much harder to get. The ceiling is higher than the above stat line. Draft him.

 

thats me convincing myself BUT......

 

1) to my recollection, the uber elite steals guys tend put up the huge numbers in their early 20s, do so for only a handful of years and then tail off. Tim Raines, Vince Coleman, Kenny lofton, Jose Reyes even Blackmon to name a few.  I can’t think of anyone off the top of my head aside from Ricky Henderson that did it for a long time.   Assuming he maintains his current profile, but goes to a 33 steals guy how does that change his draft status? Is he only rd 1 if he’s stealing 45?

2). What is the big difference between him and merrifield and villar? Obviously trea is better, but is it by that much?

3) any chance he gains eligibility anywhere else in even a 5 game league? 

 

Not here to knock anyones thoughs on this guy.  just here to gather information.  Thanks.

i see big difference between trea and whit and villar. whit only stole 20 bags caught 10 times vs 45 bags caught 10 times the year prior. whit also 31 years old. villar doesnt have the avg upside and has a 241 floor avg in 2017. trea is a career 291 hitter with legit 300 upside imo. also have to factor in mia. offense vs was.

 

if you are drafting trea in 1st/early 2nd you are doing so expecting a floor of 40 bags if he plays 150+ games. would still be a let down if he doesnt swipe 40 bags even if he hits in the 3 hole all year (35sb vs 5 cs in 122 games last year)

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If he's batting 3rd it can be a big plus or minus related to SB. Soto is a very patient hitter at the 4 spot. If Nationals allow Turner to run, he should have ample opportunities with Soto behind him. On the other hand, with Soto's ability, maybe they won't let Turner run so that teams can't just walk Soto after a steal.

In the end, I'm expecting Nats to shuffle their lineup quite a lot. Eaton is not a guarantee to stay healthy. Robles isn't really a top of lineup on base guy either, so he's not locked in at 1 or 2.

Regarding the potential decline in SBs, it could happen, but he has showed no signs of slowing down. Dave Martinez let Trea run a bunch last year, and I doubt that stops now. I'd give him a floor of about 30 SBs in a full season. If he hits like he did last year with 30 SB, he is probably still worth top 15 value. If he has no decline and stays healthy, he should be pretty likely to be in the top 10 or even 5 players in fantasy.

Zips, Steamer, and THE BAT all have him at about 20 HR / 40 SB this year.

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Good points sidearmer.  .290/20/30 as a floor is rd.1.   I'm assuming a touch less than  200 rbi/r.   That certainly wouldn't lose you your league.

Any chance at all he could get some starts at 3rd because Rendon left?

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On 2/21/2020 at 12:25 AM, Sidearmer said:

If he's batting 3rd it can be a big plus or minus related to SB. Soto is a very patient hitter at the 4 spot. If Nationals allow Turner to run, he should have ample opportunities with Soto behind him. On the other hand, with Soto's ability, maybe they won't let Turner run so that teams can't just walk Soto after a steal.

In the end, I'm expecting Nats to shuffle their lineup quite a lot. Eaton is not a guarantee to stay healthy. Robles isn't really a top of lineup on base guy either, so he's not locked in at 1 or 2.

Regarding the potential decline in SBs, it could happen, but he has showed no signs of slowing down. Dave Martinez let Trea run a bunch last year, and I doubt that stops now. I'd give him a floor of about 30 SBs in a full season. If he hits like he did last year with 30 SB, he is probably still worth top 15 value. If he has no decline and stays healthy, he should be pretty likely to be in the top 10 or even 5 players in fantasy.

Zips, Steamer, and THE BAT all have him at about 20 HR / 40 SB this year.

Who do you see batting 2nd if Soto is 4th? I hear some news that Robles will leadoff with Trea battin 3rd. I was assuming Soto would be 2nd

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20 minutes ago, fingy said:

Who do you see batting 2nd if Soto is 4th? I hear some news that Robles will leadoff with Trea battin 3rd. I was assuming Soto would be 2nd

 

I haven't been in this discussion but Eaton would hit 2nd.

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1 hour ago, fingy said:

Who do you see batting 2nd if Soto is 4th? I hear some news that Robles will leadoff with Trea battin 3rd. I was assuming Soto would be 2nd

 

There's a lot of variations they could use, that's why I'm not buying any of the hype of how the order will shake up. You can realistically put any of Trea, Eaton, or Robles at the 1 or 2 spots. I would also consider Howie Kendrick to to bat 2nd when he's in the lineup.

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12 minutes ago, quietj said:

[...] How is it even possible that he still has yet to steal a freaking base?

 

He's only been on base 9 times all year and he's been caught stealing on both of his attempts.  Hopefully he goes on a tear starting next week.

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12 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

 

He's only been on base 9 times all year and he's been caught stealing on both of his attempts.  Hopefully he goes on a tear starting next week.

one was a pretty nasty balk move. not sure about the other one

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51 minutes ago, Zeezee said:

The results so far are just a bummer. It has been a tough schedule but still.

And yet another CS attempt. Trea has literally no zero value considering where he was drafted if you take away his SB’s.

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On 8/9/2020 at 2:41 AM, quietj said:

And yet another CS attempt. Trea has literally no zero value considering where he was drafted if you take away his SB’s.

In my weekly league which uses NSB, Trea is on -3. Somehow he has been benched all year so far, so either that guy is awol or he's a friggin genius lol.

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I’m starting to worry a bit here. He has been on base considerably more over the past week and still doesn’t have a stolen base or even another attempt after his 0/3 start. Maybe Martinez is changing up the team running philosophy? Or his legs aren’t 100%? He’s hitting well but if the the steals aren’t there he’s drastically less valuable. 

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