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Trevor Story 2020 Outlook


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Wonderfully boring 1st rounder who doesn't get too much attention.  The only alarming thing is the strikeout rate which has come down but is still high.  His sprint speed also dropped a little.  But overall he's a top talent with no chance of getting traded.  

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As always, you'll want to have him in your lineup every time he's playing at Coors, but the home/road splits remain extreme (1.064 OPS at home in 2019, .767 away, .998 career OPS at home, .756 away). My personal strategy for having Story on your roster is to have a backup SS option that supplies a bit more steady (even if unspectacular) production and utilize that option when Story's away from Coors (unless it's a pitching matchup that Story owns).

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3 minutes ago, Dark One said:

As always, you'll want to have him in your lineup every time he's playing at Coors, but the home/road splits remain extreme (1.064 OPS at home in 2019, .767 away, .998 career OPS at home, .756 away). My personal strategy for having Story on your roster is to have a backup SS option that supplies a bit more steady (even if unspectacular) production and utilize that option when Story's away from Coors (unless it's a pitching matchup that Story owns).

 

That's not optimal for someone you are spending a top pick on.

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43 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

That's not optimal for someone you are spending a top pick on.

Not optimal perhaps, but if you pair him with someone a bit more consistent, I think it can be extremely effective since the numbers at home are so good that the overall numbers in the end still have him ranked among the top 10-ish fantasy players, and you'll want to benefit from those games.

Edited by Dark One
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  • 1 month later...

If they serious about playing all the games in Arizona, would story still be a top 10-20 pick?  The splits are scary away from Coors ...

 

292 abs 11 hrs, 260 average, that’s alarming if they do choose to play all the game I Arizona , which could be likely 

 

same thing in 2018, 11 hrs and a 276 average

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Brye said:

If they serious about playing all the games in Arizona, would story still be a top 10-20 pick?  The splits are scary away from Coors ...

 

292 abs 11 hrs, 260 average, that’s alarming if they do choose to play all the game I Arizona , which could be likely 

 

same thing in 2018, 11 hrs and a 276 average

 

 

 

 

 

 


That’s a solid point. But he’s not the only top hitter that benefits from a hitter’s park.

 

-Harper, Yelich, Judge, Stanton, Soto, Bregman

 

at the very least, Story runs too and doesn’t just hit homers.

 

answer to your question is maybe he’s not a top 10 pick, but still comfortably in top 20

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6 minutes ago, Brye said:

If they serious about playing all the games in Arizona, would story still be a top 10-20 pick?  The splits are scary away from Coors ...

 

292 abs 11 hrs, 260 average, that’s alarming if they do choose to play all the game I Arizona , which could be likely 

 

same thing in 2018, 11 hrs and a 276 average

 

 

 

 

 

 

That’s what I’m worried about now. Got him on a couple teams and thinking of trying to trade him.

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11 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

That’s what I’m worried about now. Got him on a couple teams and thinking of trying to trade him.

[...] yeah if they play all there game in zona based off his last 2 years of identical 11 hrs in 300ish abs in away parks that’s a whopping 22 hrs in a full season in zona, with a 260-280 average , kinda scary if you ask me 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story
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6 minutes ago, UberRebel said:


That’s a solid point. But he’s not the only top hitter that benefits from a hitter’s park.

 

-Harper, Yelich, Judge, Stanton, Soto, Bregman

 

at the very least, Story runs too and doesn’t just hit homers.

 

answer to your question is maybe he’s not a top 10 pick, but still comfortably in top 20

Harper, Stanton both have proved they could hit in big parks on there previous teams

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6 minutes ago, desert86 said:

Good hitters typically do just fine leaving coors.  They lose the advantage of hitting in coors, but don't have the away game hangover. I'd view that as a potential draft day value gain

Gain??? Check the splits story’s fantasy value is made by Coors field.  Since he’s entered the league, and Coors field is the best hitters park in mlb history, idk how your can say that when story’s 900+ away abs from Coors clearly show the difference 

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1 minute ago, Brye said:

Gain??? Check the splits story’s fantasy value is made by Coors field.  Since he’s entered the league, and Coors field is the best hitters park in mlb history, idk how your can say that when story’s 900+ away abs from Coors clearly show the difference 

Check the stats of recent goods hitters that leave coors (lemahieu/Dickerson/holiday etc).  They all end up with numbers closer to their averages rather than the huge splits coors generates. 

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4 minutes ago, desert86 said:

Check the stats of recent goods hitters that leave coors (lemahieu/Dickerson/holiday etc).  They all end up with numbers closer to their averages rather than the huge splits coors generates. 

Check story’s minor league numbers, his away splits 

 

then check his Coors stats, he’s the other example of a hitter that greatly benefits from Coors , until I see story hit close to what he does at Coors I’m not buying it and I’ll go with a far less risk

 

For me if he plays half his games at Coors he’s a top 10 player if they are all away he’s a top 30-40

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10 minutes ago, Brye said:

Check story’s minor league numbers, his away splits 

 

then check his Coors stats, he’s the other example of a hitter that greatly benefits from Coors , until I see story hit close to what he does at Coors I’m not buying it and I’ll go with a far less risk

 

For me if he plays half his games at Coors he’s a top 10 player if they are all away he’s a top 30-40

I see an easy 20/20 player that hits .270-280. What are you seeing? 

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Dickerson and lemahieu maintained their averages after leaving coors. The peaks and valleys just get closer to their average when leaving Coors.  I could be forgetting someone but those are the last 2 to leave coors and still be good/near their career averages.  If you can provide players that weren't I'll reevaluate my position. 

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1 hour ago, Brye said:

[...] yeah if they play all there game in zona based off his last 2 years of identical 11 hrs in 300ish abs in away parks that’s a whopping 22 hrs in a full season in zona, with a 260-280 average , kinda scary if you ask me 

Yep I agree. I don’t want to take the risk when people see him as a first rounder. I’d rather have someone safer.

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21 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Yep I agree. I don’t want to take the risk when people see him as a first rounder. I’d rather have someone safer.

Yeah, if this happens it’s an easy Lindor, turner, tatis as the top 3 ss all of who will hit for a better average , way more hrs, and more stolen bases from tatis and turner

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1 hour ago, Brye said:

Yeah, if this happens it’s an easy Lindor, turner, tatis as the top 3 ss all of who will hit for a better average , way more hrs, and more stolen bases from tatis and turner

Can’t argue that. I like Story, but only if he plays in Coors, outside of Coors he’s nowhere near an elite SS. I’d add Baez as passing him too.

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4 hours ago, Brye said:

Check story’s minor league numbers, his away splits 

 

then check his Coors stats, he’s the other example of a hitter that greatly benefits from Coors , until I see story hit close to what he does at Coors I’m not buying it and I’ll go with a far less risk

 

For me if he plays half his games at Coors he’s a top 10 player if they are all away he’s a top 30-40

You're totally missing the point. Rockies hitters historically perform much worse on the road on average, than how hitters from the rest of the league perform on the road. When those same hitters move on to other teams, their road numbers generally improve, and overall there actually isn't a huge drop-off (sometimes none at all) from being on the Rockies.

Hitting in Coors half the time has a negative affect on road performance.

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7 hours ago, Brye said:

Yeah, if this happens it’s an easy Lindor, turner, tatis as the top 3 ss all of who will hit for a better average , way more hrs, and more stolen bases from tatis and turner

Very misguided. Story will be better than all just like he already was the last 2 seasons. Lindor VS Story is at least a good debate. Taking Tatis over Story is not a good bet at all. 

Edited by BxBOMBERs28
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5 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Can’t argue that. I like Story, but only if he plays in Coors, outside of Coors he’s nowhere near an elite SS. I’d add Baez as passing him too.

Don’t listen to this poster regarding Coors hitters. Misinformation central. Story is a monster and will be elite because he is. Baez over Story? Comical 

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3 hours ago, cs3 said:

You're totally missing the point. Rockies hitters historically perform much worse on the road on average, than how hitters from the rest of the league perform on the road. When those same hitters move on to other teams, their road numbers generally improve, and overall there actually isn't a huge drop-off (sometimes none at all) from being on the Rockies.

Hitting in Coors half the time has a negative affect on road performance.

You’re beating a dead horse. Many posters have tried to explain this to them in the Arenado thread. I guess they got tired of looking foolish over there and came into here to spew nonsense 

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If I’m in a money league [...] and they decide to play in zona, you think ima take a risk on story when there’s several guys like Soto, turner, rameriez on the board ima risk it and pick a player that hasn’t done squat away from Coors in his Mlb career, the numbers away from Coors actually lineup with his mi or league stats look them up.  There’s a reason arbenado would lose value if traded as the experts say , you can’t argue that Coors field isn’t the best hitters park in the mlb I can put up countless stats if you need? There’s a reason the only starting pitcher in Rockies history to put to an ERA under 3 with 100+ IP was Ubaldo jimmiez no one else has done it , so yeah I’ll take the safe road and draft players that were close to equal to him b4 the news 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story
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If you're in a high dollar league i think it would benefit you to read up on the coors hangover effect. If you want to believe in nobody being better away from coors because it's the best hitters park I'll let you believe what you want to. 

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