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Paul DeJong 2020 Outlook


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https://www.pitcherlist.com/top-30-shortstops-in-fantasy-baseball-for-2020/

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Paul DeJong had a fantastic start to the season, batting .342 with 5 homers and 14 doubles in his first 29 games. Then he was pretty terrible for the last 130 games of the 2019 season. In that first month of the season, he was hitting line drives at an awesome 27.4%. Then he just stopped doing that and hit 15% line drives and 40% groundballs. I don’t understand what happened or why DeJong changed his approach from something that was clearly working. He still managed to hit 30 homers and score 97 runs throughout the season but provided little else. I’d much rather take a shot on someone like Swanson or Kieboom than DeJong, especially when he is being drafted ahead of both of them.

 

was there something that DeJong did that caused the change from the first month to the rest of the season?

 

 

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8 hours ago, Gumbercules said:

I don't know if it's a trend or not but over the past 2 seasons he's started out hot and then faded. During the 2018 season he hit .275 with 7 hr and an OPS of .866 and then promptly regressed to the mean.  Much like 2019.

Maybe nobody else noticed and I can deal him after a hot start

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  • 1 month later...

full season avg of 30/90/90 250 his first 3 years which does play. more so in roto

reverse splits last 2 years. cant hit lhp 650/678 ops, cant hit at home 666/699 ops. dont know what to make of that

 

Edited by colepenhagen
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Still only 26, and the K% and BB% are headed in the right direction every year he's been in the majors. Last year's babip was the lowest of any level in his career. Threw in nine steals last year which might not be an outlier looking at his sprint speed. Hitting cleanup for STL so there's potential for a 260/30/90/90/5-10SB pace, I love Dejong this year and going forward. 

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7 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

Still only 26, and the K% and BB% are headed in the right direction every year he's been in the majors. Last year's babip was the lowest of any level in his career. Threw in nine steals last year which might not be an outlier looking at his sprint speed. Hitting cleanup for STL so there's potential for a 260/30/90/90/5-10SB pace, I love Dejong this year and going forward. 

I’m having a hard time buying back in this year. I targeted him heavily last year and was initially rewarded with a fantastic March/April but he was really hard to own the rest of the year. I ended up dropping him or benching him in all my leagues at some point as I was able to find better options on my bench or waiver wire. For a guy that hit 30 homers last year, his exit velo and hard hit % were decidedly below average. 

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On 4/10/2020 at 7:41 PM, Thenewwildone8 said:

Very high on this guy. Especially at his current price. 30 HR, 80+ RBI and Runs, 5-7 SB’s.

Agreed ...hidden gem gettin brighter every year...got him in like rd 16 of 22...with all the depth at SS he is a fantastic nab rd there...

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On 4/9/2020 at 1:16 PM, colepenhagen said:

full season avg of 30/90/90 250 his first 3 years which does play. more so in roto

 


Yea the full-year line plays for sure. But if he books all his numbers in the first half — or even the first couple months — of the year do you have an obligation as a responsible fantasy manager to unload your shares?

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3 hours ago, dfstout said:

Agreed ...hidden gem gettin brighter every year...got him in like rd 16 of 22...with all the depth at SS he is a fantastic nab rd there...

Definitely, I’ve been getting him at auctions for less than $3.

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On 4/12/2020 at 12:34 PM, Evincar said:

Loved owning him in April when Lindor was banged up. He was just brutal the rest of the season.

Two poor seasons in a row. I dont see much appeal even as a late round pick.

He's so cheap though, and still relatively young (turns 27 in August). 30 HRs last year, 78 RBI, 97 runs - he's a career .785 OPS dude as well. As mentioned earlier he had the lowest BABIP of his major league career last year. Hitting cleanup in a solid lineup - I don't see how you can turn that down in the 16th, 18th round (where I got him in a mid-March draft) of a 12-team roto. Those numbers from a SS are pretty nice imo for the price.

Obviously a lot of people are sour on him - could be a bargain.

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19 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

He's so cheap though, and still relatively young (turns 27 in August). 30 HRs last year, 78 RBI, 97 runs - he's a career .785 OPS dude as well. As mentioned earlier he had the lowest BABIP of his major league career last year. Hitting cleanup in a solid lineup - I don't see how you can turn that down in the 16th, 18th round (where I got him in a mid-March draft) of a 12-team roto. Those numbers from a SS are pretty nice imo for the price.

Obviously a lot of people are sour on him - could be a bargain.

Yeah I don’t understand why people are down on him. He provides better production than Correa for example and isn’t that much worse than Baez. 

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4 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Yeah I don’t understand why people are down on him. He provides better production than Correa for example and isn’t that much worse than Baez. 

i owned him on a h2h team for several years.  He is a streaky hitter who can be next to useless in head-to-head leagues going into long stretches of slumps.  If you carry two SS then you use him in small spurts when he is having his spurts but otherwise sit him I found. 

He may be better in roto leagues where I don't own.  So I had to look him up on another team just now. These leagues I'm in are all OBP and not Average.  Doesn't look like he is too good there because of his OBP numbers.  OBP of .318 last season isn't exactly stellar.  In 2018 it was .313 so last year wasn't just a dip either.

I liked the guy and had hoped he'd keep growing but haven't seen it as yet.  And given how much depth there is at SS including SS-eligible players as well as regular shortstops I don't see him as a good get for the future.

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3 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

i owned him on a h2h team for several years.  He is a streaky hitter who can be next to useless in head-to-head leagues going into long stretches of slumps.  If you carry two SS then you use him in small spurts when he is having his spurts but otherwise sit him I found. 

He may be better in roto leagues where I don't own.  So I had to look him up on another team just now. These leagues I'm in are all OBP and not Average.  Doesn't look like he is too good there because of his OBP numbers.  OBP of .318 last season isn't exactly stellar.  In 2018 it was .313 so last year wasn't just a dip either.

I liked the guy and had hoped he'd keep growing but haven't seen it as yet.  And given how much depth there is at SS including SS-eligible players as well as regular shortstops I don't see him as a good get for the future.

I think this shows how different players are valued based on league type. I agree on him in H2H leagues, hitters with his BA and OBP hurt you more than help there. In Roto though you can stomach the BA due to the rest of his stats.

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  • 4 months later...

maybe i've missed it, but when are we expecting dejong back? everything i've seen (or can find) simply states he won't return with the rest of the team.. is this code for he's having COVID complications/issues or is still testing positive? or is this strictly a procedural thing because of his positive testing and requires a separate timeline from those who were exposed but tested negative?

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4 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

maybe i've missed it, but when are we expecting dejong back? everything i've seen (or can find) simply states he won't return with the rest of the team.. is this code for he's having COVID complications/issues or is still testing positive? or is this strictly a procedural thing because of his positive testing and requires a separate timeline from those who were exposed but tested negative?

And after he gets reinstated, remember he has been off since July 29 so he will probably need to go to the alternate  site to get his swing back 

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  • 3 weeks later...

What do you guys think of DeJong going ahead ?

 

He's hit well since coming back. Last couple years he started out the season hot the first month or two then didn't hit much although was still supplying power. It's anyone's guess what happens this year, for what's left of it he could stay hot for the remainder and be golden. 

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