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Kyle Schwarber 2020 Outlook


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Didn't see a thread for him yet. I've always like him as a player, but the inconsistent playing time has been frustrating, especially in H2H leagues with weekly lineups. Honestly didn't pay much attention to him late last year so maybe that improved, but Maddon is gone now anyway.

 

What's everyone's thoughts on him? Not sure on his projected situation this year, but seems like a good value especially if he sits less. Same with Happ. 

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I like schwarber.  I think he's always been a sabermetrics wet dream but, until recently it hasn't really shown through in an appreciable way. He's still relatively young (turns 27 this year) and has made significant progress over the past 3 years in all categories.  I'm expecting him to continue with this progress and think he has more upside to him.  Especially considering his price, his 2019 season was very comparable to Max Muncy, yet Muncy is going an average 50 picks before Scwharber.  If he's still available in the 12th+ round, I'll be buying.

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25 minutes ago, Gumbercules said:

I like schwarber.  I think he's always been a sabermetrics wet dream but, until recently it hasn't really shown through in an appreciable way. He's still relatively young (turns 27 this year) and has made significant progress over the past 3 years in all categories.  I'm expecting him to continue with this progress and think he has more upside to him.  Especially considering his price, his 2019 season was very comparable to Max Muncy, yet Muncy is going an average 50 picks before Scwharber.  If he's still available in the 12th+ round, I'll be buying.

 

This seems fair to me. Muncy plays every day and is eligible at 1B, 2B, and 3B in most leagues, each of which are more valuable than OF.

I doubt Schwarber's situation changes much, he will never play that much against LHP. It makes him a daily league guy. I think a better comparison is Joc Pederson who is going about 50 picks after Schwarber.

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1 minute ago, Sidearmer said:

I doubt Schwarber's situation changes much, he will never play that much against LHP.

 

image.png.81045845876b48dd15690e31904ce622.png

Look at the steady growth there.  Last year he was 7% worse than league average vs. LHP.  And he was rewarded for it by more playing time against them:

image.png.d60eb95ccb93efa4fc195e017fd1e4e9.png

I'm liking the price a lot here.  610 PA total last season in 155 games is not a part-time player.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

 

image.png.81045845876b48dd15690e31904ce622.png

Look at the steady growth there.  Last year he was 7% worse than league average vs. LHP.  And he was rewarded for it by more playing time against them:

image.png.d60eb95ccb93efa4fc195e017fd1e4e9.png

I'm liking the price a lot here.  610 PA total last season in 155 games is not a part-time player.

 

I did not realize how much more he has been playing against LHP. Although I think the games number is skewed due to pinch hitting, but he played more than I realized.

Either way, I'd probably be benching him most of the time against LHP so he's definitely preferred in daily leagues.

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Small sample size but Schwarber really, really likes hitting 4th.

4th (68 PA): .393/.441/.787 - 25% K% - 8.8% BB% - .393 ISO - .475 BABIP

Everywhere else (1816 PA): .229/.336/.478 - 28% K% - 12.1% BB% - .249 ISO - .264 BABIP

There's no way he maintains that BABIP or those ridiculous numbers, but he seems to performs better.  With the Cubs announcing that the top 2 will be Bryant/Rizzo, it seems likely Baez will hit 3rd and Schwarber 4th.  He won't hit .300, but he may get to .260 - 35 - 100 - 90 with room in the HRs and RBIs which is pretty nice at #147.  He's going around Framil, Dahl, Kepler, Tucker, and I'd be inclined to draft him over all of them.

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  • 4 months later...
On 2/20/2020 at 5:57 PM, turner46 said:

2019 2nd half (257 PA): .280/.366/.631 - 21.8%  K% - 10.8% BB% -.272 ISO - .287 BABIP - 20 HR - 49 RBI - 37 R - 1 SB - 70 games

 

^

Then check last season's numbers vs the NL Central. Then check the NL Central's LHP Starting pitching. Then reach 2 or so rounds and make sure to draft him.

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Seems like he’s coming into his own after a few years of struggling.

 

Any chance he regains C eligibility even if for one season ala Evan Gattis? His power would be real nice at that position. Love me some big slugging backstops.

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26 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

Seems like he’s coming into his own after a few years of struggling.

 

Any chance he regains C eligibility even if for one season ala Evan Gattis? His power would be real nice at that position. Love me some big slugging backstops.

In a normal season no but who knows this season

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59 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

Seems like he’s coming into his own after a few years of struggling.

Any chance he regains C eligibility even if for one season ala Evan Gattis? His power would be real nice at that position. Love me some big slugging backstops.

No.  They have Victor Caratini who is a very good bat needing as many games as possible who the Cubs love as both a catcher and a hitter as well.  Caratini has already been promised all games with Yu Darvish and would love as many more as possible. 

They will probably carry a third catcher the first week or two of mega rosters as well and have several more back on the taxi squad.  All of them would have far more experience at this point with catching and handling pitchers than Schwarber as well as unlimited options to be called up.  And the pitching staff always want real full time catchers behind the plate who know how to call a game and frame pitchers and throw runners out at second etc.  Not someone who doesn't do it anymore and would be rusty.  Meanwhile a DH slot is added so Schwarber is suppose to handle that most days.  So I think zero chances he catchers even an inning let alone starts 5 games.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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  • 5 weeks later...
  • 3 months later...

he gone. non tendered by the Cubs.

 

didn't Schwarber have insane trade value a few years ago?

wasn't Schwarber in the OF (from catcher) a reason the Cubs then traded away Eloy Jimenez?

now, poof, he gone.

 

 

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On 12/2/2020 at 10:22 PM, SpecialFNK said:

he gone. non tendered by the Cubs.

 

didn't Schwarber have insane trade value a few years ago?

wasn't Schwarber in the OF (from catcher) a reason the Cubs then traded away Eloy Jimenez?

now, poof, he gone.

 

 

On the some card forums people were comparing his swing to that of Babe 🙄. He is one of those players way more popular than good.

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2 hours ago, itslarry said:

On the some card forums people were comparing his swing to that of Babe 🙄. He is one of those players way more popular than good.

About a 2-3 WAR player. Not Ruthian but useful. He will find a home quickly.

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14 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

About a 2-3 WAR player. Not Ruthian but useful. He will find a home quickly.

Baseball reference has him as a CAREER 5.1 war guy with negative last year.

Fangraphs has him as slightly positive.

 

Which one is the end all be all stay I always get confused....

 

 

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2 hours ago, itslarry said:

Baseball reference has him as a CAREER 5.1 war guy with negative last year.

Fangraphs has him as slightly positive.

 

Which one is the end all be all stay I always get confused....

 

 

He was a 2-3 win guy in 2018 and 2019. That is probably his true level, just my opinion. 

Fangraphs has him at 9.5 over his career.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/stats?position=OF

Edited by 2ndCitySox
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