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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

It’s already happening. You think the US going back to work right now is going to stop a global depression when every other country is shutting down. People will just be laid off. No exports are really needed right now. So US will basically only be running for the US needs. Either way, there is gonna be a depression most likely worse than the Great Depression. Quarantines at least mean we have a larger consumer base at the end of this to rebound. 

Not to be rude but I work in finance and what you’re saying is not true at all. A global depression is not some absolute that is bound to happen and this is completely wrong about exports. It is also completely false that we’re headed for a Great Depression or anything worse. This is only possible if the country remains shut down for a long period. Quarantines mean that businesses are going out of business and our employment is rising. It does not mean anything positive for the consumer base. Pretty much your whole post comes across as coming from someone who knows previously little about how finances work. I mean to say that exports aren’t needed or that people going to work won’t drastically help the economy is very ignorant.

 

1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

You realize 90% of the stay at home orders aren’t being enforced correct? Right now, all they are doing in most of the country is ‘advising everyone to isolate’. 

Actually that’s also wrong as people get arrested for breaking this rule in some places and the vast majority is indeed quarantined.

 

20 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

The problem with achieving herd immunity probably wouldn't the mutation rate, because SARS-CoV-2 is mutating relatively slowly so far..  The problem with it, as mentioned already multiple times in this thread, is that getting there means just letting people get the virus, which means our healthcare system gets overwhelmed more than it already is, which means a lot more dead people.

81% show no symptoms though and the benefit of catching the virus is immunity. Stocking hospitals and isolating those at-risk seems to be the solution to your concern.

 

12 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Yeah Sweden has been doing that and the result is they now have the highest death rate from coronavirus among the Scandinavian countries.  There was a big story about it on the news today.  This method does not work.

They haven’t been doing what I’m suggesting. I’m talking about strict enforced quarantining of at-risk populations not advising them to stay at home, but literally keeping them isolated and making hospitals prepared for dealing with them. Herd immunity does work, as been covered in many articles linked to on this thread, it’s why we don’t die from the regular flu or other diseases we consider non-fatal.

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Crazy with no sports. Talked to my wife last night.  Apparently works in HR. Nice girl. 

Giancarlo Stanton just sprained his wrist washing his hands

This is the rant of someone who’s never had to sacrifice anything or even think about anyone other than themself. Just grotesque.

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25 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Yeah Sweden has been doing that and the result is they now have the highest death rate from coronavirus among the Scandinavian countries.  There was a big story about it on the news today.  This method does not work.

 

I think we won't know until it's all said and done. I fear all these countries locking things down (including the US) will have surges upon relaxing restrictions. Then what, reinstitute the lockdowns and thus a vicious cycle has begun? Are we just delaying an inevitable calamity? Honestly, the approach Sweden is taking seems like the only plausible course of action after we get through this initial wave. We can limit the death toll if the old and unhealthy do their part. People are going to die regardless of whatever path we take. We can't just lock ourselves in our homes for 18 months and that's to suggest a vaccine is a given -- it is not. While I do think we will have one, in less time than 18 months, it should be said we don't have one for other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS. We don't have one for HIV. 

That said, there's way too much doom and gloom out there. I'm finding people seem to take pleasure in hearing things are cancelled (many months in advance) or putting forth their glass-is-half-empty prophecies. None of us knows how this will play out, so let's take it day-by-day. Maybe it'll subside with the warmer weather? Maybe it'll one day leave us altogether? SARS has been on the back of a milk container since 2003. Maybe we'll have an effective treatment for it sooner than later?

Let's just see how this one plays out, shall we?  

 

 

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36 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Yes that needs no explanation, I get that.  I just don't get your response to mine. There are ways the virus can spread and those ways are mitigated through social distancing, wearing PPE, etc.  Asymptomatic people are less likely to spread it when all of those precautions are still taken.  The virus is not going away, we just need to do the best we realistically can to limit the spread and lower our chances of infection.  Hopefully we start to see new cases and deaths begin to drop soon.  And who knows when a vaccine can be available to the public.  Possibly a year away or so.. we'll see.

Yes because asymptomatic people working say, in the food industry, in no way could make this pandemic worse right?

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24 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Not to be rude but I work in finance and what you’re saying is not true at all. A global depression is not some absolute that is bound to happen and this is completely wrong about exports. It is also completely false that we’re headed for a Great Depression or anything worse. This is only possible if the country remains shut down for a long period. Quarantines mean that businesses are going out of business and our employment is rising. It does not mean anything positive for the consumer base. Pretty much your whole post comes across as coming from someone who knows previously little about how finances work. I mean to say that exports aren’t needed or that people going to work won’t drastically help the economy is very ignorant.

 

Actually that’s also wrong as people get arrested for breaking this rule in some places and the vast majority is indeed quarantined.

 

81% show no symptoms though and the benefit of catching the virus is immunity. Stocking hospitals and isolating those at-risk seems to be the solution to your concern.

 

They haven’t been doing what I’m suggesting. I’m talking about strict enforced quarantining of at-risk populations not advising them to stay at home, but literally keeping them isolated and making hospitals prepared for dealing with them. Herd immunity does work, as been covered in many articles linked to on this thread, it’s why we don’t die from the regular flu or other diseases we consider non-fatal.

The world is shut down. How is that not already putting us in a global depression. It’s shut down to the point India can actually see the Himalayas again for the first time in decades. Yes it does work. But if 80% of the USA era infected with this virus we will have a death toll in the millions, not thousands. Exports are needed MUCH less right now as nobody is spending as much money worldwide on goods. That should be common sense. If the sky is falling because the economy is in a tailspin purely because of a lack of consumerism, that’s not just going to be happening in the US. That’s happening worldwide. There is a reason we currently have crops rotting: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/04/06/lettuce-left-to-die-in-california-fields-as-produce-demand-withers-under-covid-19/amp/

Direct excerpt: Export demand to big overseas markets, including China, Japan and South Korea is also down as they also deal with the coronavirus. 
 

How exactly do you know 81% show no symptoms? They aren’t testing people WITH symptoms in the US. Basing it off the Chinese numbers?

 

The majority of places aren’t enforcing the order. Washington still doesn’t. Kids are playing in parks with their parents daily. Someone tried to call non emergency just to have them go discuss the need for social distancing with them. They said they wouldn’t send an officer. Not enforced. The AG of Kansas told officers not to enforce the closure of churches. That has now been overturned. Yay! Large groups of people happening in the middle of a stay at home order. 

Herd immunity works with the flu because of how long it has been around. There is a reason the Spanish Flu killed between 50-100m worldwide. It’s because it was a novel version of the flu and there was no herd immunity. Yes. We totally want that. 

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13 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Yes because asymptomatic people working say, in the food industry, in no way could make this pandemic worse right?

The virus doesn't spread through food. If you're talking about takeout, someone with COVID19 would need to cough or sneeze on your food...Asymptomatic people are not coughing and sneezing uncontrollably.  Any reputable business will be safe to order from.  You can also take additional measures by reheating the food if you wish.

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14 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

The virus doesn't spread through food. If you're talking about takeout, someone with COVID19 would need to cough or sneeze on your food...Asymptomatic people are not coughing and sneezing uncontrollably.  Any reputable business will be safe to order from.  You can also take additional measures by reheating the food if you wish.

The virus CAN spread through food although not as prevalent. Remember how your mouth is one of the things you don’t want to be touching? Someone coughs on their hand then prepares your food and they can definitely spread it. You can catch this from someone breathing in close proximity to you. You think zero asymptomatic people have seasonal allergies?

Fun fact, have it right now. Doctor is letting me go back to work with an unproductive cough, since that won’t be going away anytime soon. 

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1 minute ago, daynlokki said:

The virus CAN spread through food although not as prevalent. Remember how your mouth is one of the things you don’t want to be touching? Someone coughs on their hand then prepares your food and they can definitely spread it. You can catch this from someone breathing in close proximity to you. You think zero asymptomatic people have seasonal allergies?

Uh...masks buddy.  And why would the person preparing my food be breathing on me?  Remember social distancing.... You don't cough into your hands, you cough into your upper sleep or elbow.  Any reputable establishment will be doing this.  If they actually cough or sneeze into their hands they will wash their hands after, not rub it on your hamburger.  The virus would even be killed at the heats they're cooking at, it would need to be your fully prepared meal being sneezed on....remember masks?

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11 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Uh...masks buddy.  And why would the person preparing my food be breathing on me?  Remember social distancing.... You don't cough into your hands, you cough into your upper sleep or elbow.  Any reputable establishment will be doing this.  If they actually cough or sneeze into their hands they will wash their hands after, not rub it on your hamburger.  The virus would even be killed at the heats they're cooking at, it would need to be your fully prepared meal being sneezed on....remember masks?

Yes because everyone is going to wear a mask all day long in a hot kitchen right? Zero chance anyone would take a mask off in that situation right? Just like how everyone follows stay at home orders. It can spread via sweat as well. 

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Question @MrBrown how would you feel as a consumer if out found out that after you had an insured water damage loss, an asymptomatic individual positive for covid came into your house to work on it? What about if that cashier at the supermarket was asymptomatic and working through it? Allowing asymptomatic people who are still contagious to work during this is asinine.

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33 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Question @MrBrown how would you feel as a consumer if out found out that after you had an insured water damage loss, an asymptomatic individual positive for covid came into your house to work on it? What about if that cashier at the supermarket was asymptomatic and working through it? Allowing asymptomatic people who are still contagious to work during this is asinine.

I feel fine.  I do self-checkout so non-issue. I will also continue to be careful by not frequenting supermarkets.  They will all be wearing masks also. I'll also keep my distance from any of these workers, who will all be wearing PPE to prevent it from spreading to others.

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44 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

I feel fine.  I do self-checkout so non-issue. I will also continue to be careful by not frequenting supermarkets.  They will all be wearing masks also. I'll also keep my distance from any of these workers, who will all be wearing PPE to prevent it from spreading to others.

You realize the coronavirus can live on surfaces for three hours correct? And legally they don’t have to tell you if a worker is infected. So you could have people in your home doing essential work while currently infected and contagious with covid. How can you tell what they have done to stop the spread? One worker without a fit test for their respirator and it’s all over your house. Many water restoration companies don’t do fit tests as legally required. Including the one I’m with who wants me to come back to work. Went so far as to say they were no longer counting it as a covid case so if I wanted my job I needed to come back next week. So my choices are to be fired for having symptoms. Or to go to work and enter usually in the neighborhood of 3-10 different houses daily.

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8 hours ago, daynlokki said:

You realize the coronavirus can live on surfaces for three hours correct? And legally they don’t have to tell you if a worker is infected. So you could have people in your home doing essential work while currently infected and contagious with covid. How can you tell what they have done to stop the spread? One worker without a fit test for their respirator and it’s all over your house. Many water restoration companies don’t do fit tests as legally required. Including the one I’m with who wants me to come back to work. Went so far as to say they were no longer counting it as a covid case so if I wanted my job I needed to come back next week. So my choices are to be fired for having symptoms. Or to go to work and enter usually in the neighborhood of 3-10 different houses daily.

[...]

Encountering the virus is inevitable unless we avoid all human contact and never leave our houses for a year.  For most people thats not realistic nor possible. Some billionaires could pull it off if they felt like it but even that won't happen.  So yea I'm not going to worry about every possible scenario I can be infected.  As long as we're all doing the best we can to prevent the spread, thats all I'm asking for.

For the older immunocompromised they need to take extra steps than everyone else to really stay at home and wait for a vaccine.  Get help when they can and if they have no one to help then go to the supermarkets at opening when only they are allowed there.

Edited by tonycpsu
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5 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Yes because everyone is going to wear a mask all day long in a hot kitchen right? Zero chance anyone would take a mask off in that situation right? Just like how everyone follows stay at home orders. It can spread via sweat as well. 


was at my local wal mart yesterday and I saw several sheep with masks around their neck. 🤔😂🤷‍♂️

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9 hours ago, daynlokki said:

With everyone receiving unemployment for the duration. They are already trying to do an additional 1 trillion dollar stimulus. 

You need a taxable wage base to continue to provide unemployment benefits, unemployment is funded by employers to the state based on their employees salaries, which are dependent on revenue.

It's not an inexhaustible kitty.

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You need a taxable wage base to continue to provide unemployment benefits, unemployment is funded by employers to the state based on their employees salaries, which are dependent on revenue.

It's not an inexhaustible kitty.

The CARE stimulus bill, which in part extended unemployment for an additional 13 weeks, is federally funded.

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Just now, Low and Away said:

The CARE stimulus bill, which in part extended unemployment for an additional 13 weeks, is federally funded.

FUTA is a backstop for state unemployment and typically while the pool is higher, the taxes collected for each individual are lower, which is what they're dipping into for that.

Bottom line is that moving the line item from one resource to another and printing money has some consequences, and even if you're ignoring those for now, it's still not inexhaustible.  The government's whole pool is dependent on people generating revenue.

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6 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Yes because everyone is going to wear a mask all day long in a hot kitchen right? Zero chance anyone would take a mask off in that situation right? Just like how everyone follows stay at home orders. It can spread via sweat as well

"As sweat is made in sweat glands and sweat glands make the sweat by filtering the liquid bit, the watery bit, away from blood, they're not in direct contact with the source of the virus - because this virus does not to an appreciable level go round in the blood stream." 

"Therefore there should be only limited amounts of the virus in sweat for that is not a means of transmission.
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/eddie-mair/coronavirus-can-sweat-transmit-the-virus/

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"The real data are telling us that it is highly likely that we're having a definite positive effect by this mitigation things that we're doing – this physical separation – so I believe we are gonna see a downturn in that,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NBC's "Today" show. 

“And it looks more like the 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000,” he said. 
 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fauci-lowers-u-coronavirus-death-171213765.html

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At this point there is a lot of speculation. There has been so much false information because this is a new virus, nobody really knows what's right or wrong. The only way to find out is by trial and error. It seems like social distancing is working to stem the tide but I fear it won't be enough. If the whole world would have done complete shutdown a month ago this virus would probably be gone. As soon as they start opening things up again a lot more people will get sick because more people who stayed at home will be exposed. There are idiots in every city or town who are ignoring stay at home orders and social distancing. Once the government says it's ok to go back to work the idiot factor will jump 10 fold.

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8 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

81% show no symptoms though

 

 

Going to need a cite for that.  My guess is you're taking the 80.9% of cases described in this study as "mild" and conflating that with "asymptomatic."  Estimates of truly asymptomatic carriers are more in the 20-25% range.

More importantly, the number of asymptomatic carriers doesn't change the numbers I posted, because the infection fatality rate already counts asymptomatic infections.

 

8 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

and the benefit of catching the virus is immunity. Stocking hospitals and isolating those at-risk seems to be the solution to your concern.

 

You talk about "stocking hospitals" like we're not already trying to do that.  This isn't just a question of buying some more stuff off the shelf.  The ventilators that are needed don't exist, and can't be made overnight.  There are a finite number of doctors and nurses, and they're already dedicating nearly all of their resources to this virus  Meanwhile, with the current restrictions slowing the spread in many areas, we're able to send resources, including doctors and nurses, to some of the hardest-hit areas.  Under your proposal, every area would be getting hit much worse at roughly the same time.

Meanwhile, you've provided no definition for "at-risk".  If only 1/4 of cases are mild or asymptomatic, then we need to find 75% of the population that won't be hit hard by the virus.  People 65 and up only gets you to 15% of the population.  Once you start adding in people with breathing trouble, smokers, the obese or overweight, diabetics, etc. you're covering so much of the population that you're isolating most of the population anyway.

If you choose not to do that, then you're letting people who will carry and spread the disease and could also die from it do so.  There's no binary "at risk" vs. "not at risk" distinction, so until you quantify exactly what this means, it's a meaningless suggestion that does nothing to grapple with the severity of this problem.

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31 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

At this point there is a lot of speculation. There has been so much false information because this is a new virus, nobody really knows what's right or wrong. The only way to find out is by trial and error. It seems like social distancing is working to stem the tide but I fear it won't be enough. If the whole world would have done complete shutdown a month ago this virus would probably be gone. As soon as they start opening things up again a lot more people will get sick because more people who stayed at home will be exposed. There are idiots in every city or town who are ignoring stay at home orders and social distancing. Once the government says it's ok to go back to work the idiot factor will jump 10 fold.

I agree with this.  My greatest fear is the thought of government relaxing at-home orders coupled with the whole narrative of "summer heat will kill off the virus."  All that will accomplish is making the idiots overconfident.  Idiots will abandon common-sense precautions, and we will be back to square 1 or even worse when fall/winter rolls around, when irresponsible/stupid/selfish behavior leads to more outbreaks that return with a devastating vengeance.

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1 hour ago, El_Chingon said:

I agree with this.  My greatest fear is the thought of government relaxing at-home orders coupled with the whole narrative of "summer heat will kill off the virus."  All that will accomplish is making the idiots overconfident.  Idiots will abandon common-sense precautions, and we will be back to square 1 or even worse when fall/winter rolls around, when irresponsible/stupid/selfish behavior leads to more outbreaks that return with a devastating vengeance.

Fully agreed. We all saw the idiots during spring break when this was already 'a thing'... and the zero f---*s given... imagine Trump strolling out to his presser and telling the country 'hey everybody, we re safe, youre going back to work tomorrow and can go back to normal life' .. wellllll... all i can say is.. end game. That 2nd wave will be worse than the first wave.. 

I can only hope that while restrictions are lifted in moderation, that your president doesnt come out and make it appear everything is fine and no restrictions remain in place.. our prime minister has said we will be phasing back into normalcy and will take in all likelihood atleast a year... which i agree with.. 

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Trump's strolled out and told the nation everything's fine dozens of times in the last few months; if you think the country is waiting with baited breath to see when he'll let us get back to normal, you're sorely mistaken. There are some Republican-led holdout states, but any state with Democratic leadership and even several with Republican leadership (Ohio and Utah, for example) are not going back to normal just because Trump said so.

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10 hours ago, MrBrown said:

The virus doesn't spread through food. If you're talking about takeout, someone with COVID19 would need to cough or sneeze on your food...Asymptomatic people are not coughing and sneezing uncontrollably.  Any reputable business will be safe to order from.  You can also take additional measures by reheating the food if you wish.

In NYC and I have yet to order a pizza or any other takeout. I am going through withdrawal.

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7 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

In NYC and I have yet to order a pizza or any other takeout. I am going through withdrawal.

Gotta get yourself a new york slice

 

tumblr_mtmv61qiCa1si8rb9o1_1280.jpg

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