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31 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I’m not suggesting Trump is correct. I honestly don’t follow much of what he says, so I don’t know what he’s pushing for. But I find it strange that everyone blindly loves what “states with Democratic leadership” are doing (stated above).

Take Whitmer here in Michigan. She’s shut down a lot. Mostly good. But one in particular is landscaping companies. She was even pressed on it and didn’t budge because they’ll be stopping to get gas, exchange money, etc. Yay? Let’s think about what’s going to happen.

1) Some who use lawn service don’t have mowers. Their grass gets overgrown, bringing rats/other potential health problems.

and/or

2) People like me have to cut more (for my mother in law for example, who uses service and doesn’t have mower), sending HUNDREDS more to the gas stations, refilling our gas tanks.
 

Still think this is the right call?

We all understand social distancing and staying indoors and limiting contact, etc. But at some point common sense must be allowed here, instead of blindly cheering for who can shut down the most stuff, as if that’s the marker for a good leader.
 

 

I assume governments just use SIC codes to determine which businesses are "essential".  I don't think they go, literally business by business to determine what can stay open.

 

Landscapers are probably just lumped in with "Contractors", which are essential because you need someone to come fix your toilet if it's gushing water, etc.

 

Here is WA, pot shops are still open.  Assume they are just classified as "grocers", and thus allowed to remain open.

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Crazy with no sports. Talked to my wife last night.  Apparently works in HR. Nice girl. 

Giancarlo Stanton just sprained his wrist washing his hands

This is the rant of someone who’s never had to sacrifice anything or even think about anyone other than themself. Just grotesque.

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40 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I’m not suggesting Trump is correct. I honestly don’t follow much of what he says, so I don’t know what he’s pushing for. But I find it strange that everyone blindly loves what “states with Democratic leadership” are doing (stated above).


The quote, with the full context that you chose to leave out:

Quote

Trump's strolled out and told the nation everything's fine dozens of times in the last few months; if you think the country is waiting with baited breath to see when he'll let us get back to normal, you're sorely mistaken. There are some Republican-led holdout states, but any state with Democratic leadership and even several with Republican leadership (Ohio and Utah, for example) are not going back to normal just because Trump said so.

 

This, to me, reads not as a normative statement that Democratic governors are doing better than Republican governors, but as a simple (and in my view correct) statement that Democratic governors (and some Republican ones) don't have any particular reason to listen to Trump when it comes to social distancing policy, because the feds lack levers of control, and social distancing has been proven to work.  Citing a particular facet of one governor's policy that may have a tiny effect on emissions during a time when emissions from other sources are declining isn't wrong, but it's not very compelling, and reads as more an attempt to get things back to team politics instead of focusing on what is and isn't working against COVID.

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5 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I assume governments just use SIC codes to determine which businesses are "essential".  I don't think they go, literally business by business to determine what can stay open.

 

Landscapers are probably just lumped in with "Contractors", which are essential because you need someone to come fix your toilet if it's gushing water, etc.

 

Here is WA, pot shops are still open.  Assume they are just classified as "grocers", and thus allowed to remain open.

100%. But this is my problem. There is no critical thought put into it. No thought about the risk/reward or consequences. Yet we cheer this on. 

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13 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:


The quote, with the full context that you chose to leave out:

 

This, to me, reads not as a normative statement that Democratic governors are doing better than Republican governors, but as a simple (and in my view correct) statement that Democratic governors (and some Republican ones) don't have any particular reason to listen to Trump when it comes to social distancing policy, because the feds lack levers of control, and social distancing has been proven to work.  Citing a particular facet of one governor's policy that may have a tiny effect on emissions during a time when emissions from other sources are declining isn't wrong, but it's not very compelling, and reads as more an attempt to get things back to team politics instead of focusing on what is and isn't working against COVID.

You have a fascinating ability to read into things what you want. Congrats on that.

The point, and as someone else pointed out it’s happening in their state as well (as in most probably), was that SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING DEEMED NON-ESSENTIAL is being cheered on, with zero critical thought put into it. If you’re answer to limiting people at the gas pump, is sending more people to the gas pump, well that isn’t smart. 
 

This shouldn’t be a partisan take, Tony.

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2 minutes ago, posty said:

Shouldn't this thread go in the "Off Topic Talk" forum and not in here?

 

Each of the major sports now has a COVID thread, in recognition of the fact that (a) each section has its own mini-community within the larger RW community, and (b) there's nothing significant going on in sports right now that's being drowned out by few threads designed to catch the discussions that would otherwise end up littering the outlook threads. 

For now, this compromise is working.  If it stops working, we'll revisit.

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4 minutes ago, posty said:

Shouldn't this thread go in the "Off Topic Talk" forum and not in here?

https://forums.rotoworld.com/forum/13-off-topic-talk/

I mean if the subject was initially set as:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) 2020 Outlook

It would have been an entrance into the player index table that @tonycpsu wrote...

No one ever goes to that forum.  I didn't even know it existed until you mentioned there was one.

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25 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

That has not been my experience.

Went for a walk today with the wife. Live off a side street that connects Vancouver and Battleground. Counted 57 cars passing in the two blocks I walked. Wife went to the minute mart yesterday. Entire parking lot was packed, not one person following social distance protocol or wearing a mask besides her. ****, she went to the pot shop and there was a line of like fifty people outside. Turned around and went home. They were in close proximity chatting and laughing not even paying attention to the marks six feet apart on the ground. Different parts of Washington are reacting differently. Vancouver leans more republican and most tend to think this is a hoax still or the media is overreacting. 

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19 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I assume governments just use SIC codes to determine which businesses are "essential".  I don't think they go, literally business by business to determine what can stay open.

 

Landscapers are probably just lumped in with "Contractors", which are essential because you need someone to come fix your toilet if it's gushing water, etc.

 

Here is WA, pot shops are still open.  Assume they are just classified as "grocers", and thus allowed to remain open.

No they are considered medical because of medical marijuana. 

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7 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

This shouldn’t be a partisan take, Tony.

 

The party ID of the governor is the single biggest determining factor of when social distancing was started and how strict the measures have been.  Deciding what gets shut down vs. what's deemed essential is an unenviable task, and I can cite some puzzling decisions by Democratic Gov. Wolf here in PA as well.  I'm not sure how that's in any way relevant to the original post.  If your point is that Democratic governors aren't infallible, or that not everything a Republican governor does is wrong, I'm not sure that's a very interesting argument.

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3 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

You have a fascinating ability to read into things what you want. Congrats on that.

The point, and as someone else pointed out it’s happening in their state as well (as in most probably), was that SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING DEEMED NON-ESSENTIAL is being cheered on, with zero critical thought put into it. If you’re answer to limiting people at the gas pump, is sending more people to the gas pump, well that isn’t smart. 
 

This shouldn’t be a partisan take, Tony.

Non essential is different state to state. Michigan has landscapers as non essential, Washington have them as essential. Everything is looked at by a state by state basis and put into models to see the best way to flatten the curve. The more you need to flatten, the more you deem non essential. Probably why a state like Michigan who is I believe in the top five for deaths is cutting back more. 

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

 

The party ID of the governor is the single biggest determining factor of when social distancing was started and how strict the measures have been.  Deciding what gets shut down vs. what's deemed essential is an unenviable task, and I can cite some puzzling decisions by Gov. Wolf here in PA as well.  I'm not sure how that's in any way relevant to the original post.  If your point is that Democratic governors aren't infallible, or that not everything a Republican governor does is wrong, I'm not sure that's a very interesting argument.

Yes it is. Forget party affiliation. I didn’t try to make the point you’re attempting to place on my post. My point, as I stated, is the lack of critical thought going into it. Shut down everything is being deemed as “correct,” and I don’t think that’s always the case. 

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3 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Non essential is different state to state. Michigan has landscapers as non essential, Washington have them as essential. Everything is looked at by a state by state basis and put into models to see the best way to flatten the curve. The more you need to flatten, the more you deem non essential. Probably why a state like Michigan who is I believe in the top five for deaths is cutting back more. 

Yeah, Michigan currently 3rd I believe. But as I pointed out, “cutting back more” on trips to the gas station for a two-man crew, for example, is going to lead to hundreds more individuals going to the gas station. Governors (ALL) need to listen to opposing arguments and make sound decisions. Sounds like your governor used some common sense. 

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We can quibble with specific actions in specific states, but shutting down more has led to better results than shutting down less, and it's not wrong to note that party identification has been a factor.  Doing so does not have to lead to a "but what about this Democrat who did a bad thing" response.

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17 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

she went to the pot shop and there was a line of like fifty people outside.
 

They were in close proximity chatting and laughing not even paying attention to the marks six feet apart on the ground. 


maybe they were like...

 

spacer.png

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18 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

We can quibble with specific actions in specific states, but shutting down more has led to better results than shutting down less, and it's not wrong to note that party identification has been a factor.  Doing so does not have to lead to a "but what about this Democrat who did a bad thing" response.

Good point. It’s not wrong to note that party identification is a factor in who blindly follows their nanny state without giving critical thought. In that we agree.

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There was some discussion upthread about the merit of various models, and how they don't all agree.  I found this FiveThirtyEight piece an interesting read about why modeling this stuff is so difficult.

My sense is that there's too much reliance right now on models that are assuming social distancing will continue past the peak, particularly given the understandable urge to get back to normal.  Seems like we're going to end up with some natural experiments in areas that decide to ramp things up sooner vs. later, just as we had natural experiments about imposing social distancing early vs. late or not at all.  My hope is that these new natural experiments are more successful.

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50 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

The party ID of the governor is the single biggest determining factor of when social distancing was started and how strict the measures have been.  Deciding what gets shut down vs. what's deemed essential is an unenviable task, and I can cite some puzzling decisions by Democratic Gov. Wolf here in PA as well.  I'm not sure how that's in any way relevant to the original post.  If your point is that Democratic governors aren't infallible, or that not everything a Republican governor does is wrong, I'm not sure that's a very interesting argument.

Is there somewhere that tracks when states started social distancing and how strict the measures have been ?

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8 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Is there somewhere that tracks when states started social distancing and how strict the measures have been ?

 

When: https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-policy-watch/stay-at-home-orders-to-fight-covid19/

How strict: https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/state-data-and-policy-actions-to-address-coronavirus/#socialdistancing

 

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Regarding the issue of determining what is essential or not. One problem is the more exceptions you give the more others will say what about us. No telling if some of these decisions are/were made with some rational reasoning or with prejudices. Obviously, in our current us vs them state of mind it's difficult to know with certainty.

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In Wisconsin we were warned to start  practicing the social distancing and only going out if absolutely needed about 2 weeks before the official state wide stay at home order (March 24th).  Milwaukee and Madison areas were originally drilled the hardest to comply. Also Milwaukee and Madison counties were already shutdown before the State order was issued. 

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